Ramblings: Raanta/Andersen in Carolina; Jaskin’s Upside; Ceci’s New Opportunity – August 3

Michael Clifford

2021-08-03

We have finally reached the offseason. It took to the long weekend in August, but we finally reached the offseason. Honestly, this past season is just one giant blur. I was looking through some of my old tweets the other day for a specific tweet from this season and remembered the time Ralph Krueger, the not-yet-fired Buffalo Sabres coach, took to Twitter on a burner account to defend himself. That happened fewer than five months ago! Just an absolute blur of a season.

I do believe that training camps start in about six weeks' time, so we don't have a lot of offseason runway to work with. Remember that if you want a head start on the year, we have our Prospects Guide available in the Dobber Shop. There is a ton of information in there from current depth charts, future projections, player profiles, and a bunch more.

We will also have some team breakdowns between now and the start of the season here in the Ramblings. There was a lot of movement over the last couple weeks and we are going to do our best to sort it all out and make sense of it for you guys.

And, as there is every year, the Dobber Fantasy Guide is on the way. Dobber is working on it tirelessly and we're all chipping in our parts as well. Normally, the offseason affords him more time to assemble it, but this season just doesn't offer that. Keep an eye out for it in the near future.

Let's start looking ahead to next season. I want to talk about some guys wearing new jerseys that I'm very excited about from a fantasy perspective. This could be because of an offseason trade, their move up the depth chart, signing with a new team, or a host of other reasons.

Nick Ritchie

The Bruins not qualifying Nick Ritchie and letting him walk seemed a bit odd. He had 15 goals in 56 games last year playing second/third-line minutes and was decent defensively. He seemed to mesh on the top PP unit as well, something that struggled at times for Boston in 2021. But they let him walk and shored up centre depth with Tomas Nosek and Erik Haula instead. He signed in Toronto where he now has a lot of upside.

Ritchie's big issue in Toronto is the depth on the wings. If we assume that Marner/Nylander are in the top-6 and Alex Kerfoot plays the wing instead of centre, they have the following in contention for the other top-6 wing spots: Kerfoot, Ritchie, Mikheyev, Kase, Bunting, Simmonds, Robertson, Amirov. The last two on that list are long shots, but the role is there if they grab the brass ring in training camp. All this is to say there are at least six guys fighting for two spots. Everyone else will be in the bottom-6. There is a huge, huge difference playing 13 minutes a night at even strength with Tavares/Nylander and playing 11:30 a night at even strength with Kampf/Mikheyev.

If Ritchie can lock down a top-6 role with time on either PP unit, that's 16 minutes a night playing with some top-end stars. He is a guy that can soar past 100 hits with two shots per game. If he can repeat anywhere close to last year and post ~20 goals and 40 points with those peripherals? He will be in play in multi-cat leagues of all sizes. He is a gamble, but probably one worth taking late in drafts.

Jordan Oesterle

A defenceman in his late twenties going to a franchise that was in the lottery last year probably doesn't seem like a lot to get excited over. On the other hand, I think there could be some short-term value here.

The problem for Oesterle in Arizona is he was stuck behind a lot of defencemen. They had Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun, and even Alex Goligoski ahead of him on the PP depth chart. Despite that, Oesterle is a decent transition defenceman in his own right. In fact, he does a little bit of everything from shot assists (passes leading to shots), shooting, and transition offence (from CJ Turtoro's viz):

What is odd is his offensive impact over the years is not good. As in, somewhat below average.  How much of a function was his role on the team, what he was asked to do, and maybe trying to play a bit safe? Regardless, I think there's a good puck-mover here.

I bring this up because Oesterle signed in Detroit and while they're righting the ship, they still have a ways to go. Assuming none of the kids has a big breakout, Oesterle is fighting with Nick Leddy and Filip Hronek for PP time, not OEL and Chychrun. He has a legit chance at PP1 minutes if he plays well.

With 20 minutes of ice time, 150 shots and 200 blocks+hits are in reach. He could be a 25-point guy with the right deployment, and that brings him fantasy value. We will have to see how this shakes out in training camp. He is nothing more than a depth add right now.

Dmitrij Jaskin

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Here is a player I thought would be a breakout star years ago. The problem is his offensive game just didn't develop along with his defensive game. He was a marvelous player defensively but didn't bring anything offensively:

Even with the offensive struggles, it was weird to me a guy with those defensive skills couldn't last in the NHL. Regardless, he took off for the KHL and posted 69 goals in 117 games, which was outstanding. His 38 goals led the KHL this year by 10 (!), and he finished second in the KHL the year before, finishing two goals behind Kirill Kaprizov.

Jaskin did two things well in his first NHL stint, from a fantasy perspective: high shot rates at even strength and lots of hits. He averaged two shots per game in 2014-15 despite playing under 14 minutes a night, and posted over 200 hits in 2017-18 despite playing under 13 minutes a game. Production aside, what do his shots/hits look like in a full season with 17 minutes a night?

This is one of the more interesting players in the NHL this year. If he has a genuinely good offensive game and a comparable defensive game to 2-3 years ago, he's a first liner, or at least a top-6 guy. That could be a very valuable trade chip later in the year for Arizona, who is undoubtedly looking to rehab his image and then flip him as the rebuild continues.

Cody Ceci

In retrospect, this could be a great move for Ceci in the fantasy game. When he was playing 22-23 minutes a night back in Ottawa, he was a threat for 300 blocks+hits every season (and did it once). His ice time decline in Toronto and Pittsburgh made that reality unlikely, but he is now in Edmonton. With Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie on the right side, it's not impossible we see Ceci right on the top pair with Darnell Nurse. Last year, Nurse played 21:45 a night at even strength. Even if that comes down a bit to about 20 minutes, that is already more ice time than Ceci was getting last year. Add in a couple minutes of PK time every night and it seems that 22 minutes is well within reach here.

Ceci is a divisive player in the real world but his fantasy value shouldn't be in doubt. He was brought in to be an anchor for them on the blue line. Whether he is or not, the ice time that comes with that is very valuable for fantasy owners. With 22-23 minutes a night, he can push for 25 points and 300 hits+blocks. That level of production is very valuable in multi-cat leagues. At $3.25M a season, that is very palatable in cap leagues as well. This could be a very good thing for him and fantasy owners.

Antti Raanta

There isn't much need to dig in too far here. I think that Raanta is one of the best goalies in hockey and there are stats to back that up:

  • Just outside the top-5 goalies by goals saved above expected since getting to Arizona. That is a cumulative stat, so his rate of goals saved is higher than the sixth he sits cumulatively.
  • Same high-danger save percentage as Robin Lehner from 2017-20, and just slightly worse than Connor Hellebuyck.
  • Three seasons of at least a .920 save percentage overall in the last five years.

Reminder, that in those last four years, Raanta has been stuck behind a mostly-bad Arizona team. He has also suffered some injuries, which both makes his upside higher and brings concern.

The question for Raanta in Carolina is staying healthy. Frederik Andersen is a starting goalie but not of the same calibre, and it's not hard to see Raanta keeping the net later in the year. Neither will start 60 games, but if both are healthy, I'm betting on Raanta having a good year.

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