Ramblings: Signing Rundown of Nurse, Hamilton, Dunn, Granlund, Hart, Shesterkin & More (Aug 11)
Alexander MacLean
2021-08-11
Only three more days until the 2021-22 DobberHockey Fantasy Guide drops! Order yours here before you're behind the eight-ball and trying to play catch-up with your league-mates.
Jumping back into my takes on the offseason moves, this week I'm going to review a whole wack-load of signings, some of my thoughts on fantasy impacts, and how the actual contract numbers affect both the outlook of the player, and their value in cap leagues.
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Let’s get the big one out of the way. Darnell Nurse‘s extension is ridiculous no matter which way you slice it. It makes him basically impossible to own in any cap league, but for non-cap leagues it ensures he’s going to stuff the peripherals at least as he will be playing at least 25 minutes a night. The Nurse deal comes on the heels of similar extensions for Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. If I was an NHL team and going to pay one of them $9M it would be Nurse, though for fantasy both Jones and Werenski have higher upsides.
Dougie Hamilton got about the same amount on the open market, and he was a better option than all three mentioned above – both for fantasy and real-world value. He joins two other top power play options in New Jersey though, with the newly drafted Luke Hughes and the incumbent Ty Smith. I would love to see a world where New Jersey runs out three defensemen on the power play – or even at even-strength – and changes the dynamic of the game a little. They don't currently have a lot of forwards that need a fair share of power play time either, so it could work. Alas, this is probably a pipe-dream, and it likely delays the arrival of Luke Hughes by a year or two, as well as probably cutting the upside of all three defensemen by 5-10 points.
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Vince Dunn nets a two-year bridge deal at a $4M cap hit, which is a bit above his projected $3.15 million. It does seem like it will be a little higher than cap league owners might have liked, however, it does show that he should be the front-runner for powerplay time when the team breaks camp in the fall. His peripherals aren’t great, but he should be one of the cheaper top power play options at the draft table this year.
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Adam Pelech wasn’t owned in too many leagues, but if he was then it was for his hits/blocks production (and possibly also because of the cap value his last contract brought). His deployment shouldn’t change much, though for Ryan Pulock owners, the Pelech contract provides a bit of a framework for his extension. Maybe a $6-6.5M cap hit on a long-term deal would keep him in line there.
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Signing Alex Edler, and Philip Danault, plus trading for Viktor Arvidsson were all good bets for the Kings. Arvidsson may be in tough to get back to his 30-goal, 60-point seasons, but even 80% of that production will be worthwhile value for what the Kings paid.
This is now a team that looks fairly deep on the blue line, has two capable goalies, led by starter Cal Petersen (still one of the best bargains in fantasy hockey right now – cap league or not) and a forward core that boast two of the top two-way centres in the game, a mix of older and younger skilled wingers, and some grit. A bit of a dark-horse at the moment, but this may be the second-best team in the Pacific Division next season.
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Seing the Kraken make some bold moves in free agency was unexpected, but it's tough to say exactly how all the pieces fit together. If you are going to be trying to value draft players on the Kraken, aim for the players they signed though, as they will likely have been promised more, and have the longer leashes.
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The Leafs signed their usual glut of extra forwards and Dmen. Ritchie’s deal looks to be a bit of a bargain, and he was showing a scoring touch last year in Boston on top of his usual tough style. His 2.2 shots per game were the first time in his career above two, and he was a very impactful player on the powerplay for the Bruins. The Leafs may have eyes on him replacing Simmonds as the net-front man on one of the top two units this coming year.
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The Predators complemented their handful of earlier re-tooling trades with the re-signing of second-line center Mikael Granlund. Granlund has been the most-used forward in Coach John Hynes’ time in Nashville, which makes it somewhat surprising that Granlund hasn’t really seen a big rebound in scoring back to his peak days. He seems to be stuck as a 50-60 points player who is reliable all over the ice. Paying him $5 million was a touch higher than projected, and more than fantasy owners might have liked, but it's not an unfair price for what he brings in real life.
Nashville also brought in David Rittich on a small deal to play backup to Juuse Saros. Saros has never started more than 40 games in an NHL season, although last year when he was playing at a Vezina level he got 36 out of a possible 56 games, which would pro-rate to 53 in a full 82-game slate. There are probably 20-30 starts for Rittich here on a bubble playoff team, which is a lot better than the opportunity he had last season.
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The Dallas Stars added a few defencemen behind the newly extended Miro Heiskanen. Ryan Suter came in right about at his projected cap hit, but the four-year term may be a little long for him. In the meantime, he slots in as the third best offensive option after Heiskanen and John Klingberg, as he replaces Jaime Oleksiak on the top pair. For added depth, the Stars also inked Jani Hakanpaa to a three-year deal. He's a very underrated option in multi-category leagues, but beware that he might not get heavy ice time in Dallas.
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Adding Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich to an already deep lineup bodes well for the Blues. On the flip side, losing Mike Hoffman, Vince Dunn, and possibly trading Vladimir Tarasenko as well means that they may even come out behind this offseason. Buchnevich signed at $5.8 million per season, almost exactly at his projected $5.83 million mark. It's a fair deal for an underrated producer, and means that the Blues see his potential and he won't end up stuck down the lineup.
Both new wingers are a little more defensively responsible than the players they would be replacing, so it could help cover the loss of Dunn on the defensive side of the puck. The Blues' goalies likely come out a little ahead here, as healthy seasons from Colton Parayko and rookie Scott Perunovich will also be huge internal additions.
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Boston adding Nick Foligno and Erik Haula (on reasonable deals) might barely make up for David Krejci's value by aggregate, but he is a near-impossible player to replace on his own. The Bruins still have enough centre depth to manage in a deep Eastern Conference, but the team may be surprised by how much they miss having the centre depth Krejci provides.
Losing him is a bit of a hit to the entire lineup, but it especially hurts his linemates Craig Smith and Taylor Hall. No offence to Charlie Coyle, but he's not in the same tier as Krejci. This also likely means that the first power play will consist of the perfection line plus Hall, meaning Smith is going to be the odd one out there with the rest of the misfits on the second unit. He only put up six points with the man-advantage last season anyways, but that may have been his peak in Boston.
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Tony DeAngelo signing in Carolina was surprising as they are viewed as a forward-thinking club, and DeAngelo is the opposite. He was projected at $750,000 on my list, as he didn't deserve more than that if a team was going to give him a second shot. From purely a numbers standpoint, he can be a huge bargain on this prove-it deal, but I don't think he will end up on any of my teams because I don't feel like dealing with the headache the uncertainty will cause, and it would just leave a bad taste in my mouth.
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Yegor Sharangovich signed a very reasonable bridge deal with a $2 million cap hit for two years. This kept Janne Kuokkanen in line as well with him re-upping for $1.825 million. His owners should be very happy with that number, as it comes in below his projected mark. Both players should be in the top-six next year, and be part of a push from the team to get out of the basement. They are likely still a year or two away from pushing for the playoffs, but the team should be closer to 16th overall than 32nd.
The Tomas Tatar and Jonathan Bernier deals are good short-term gambles as well, and will help insulate some of the youth on the team, while also boosting the overall fantasy values. Bernier won't see the same volume as he did last year, and neither will his new partner Mackenzie Blackwood, however, both should see improvements in their rate stats.
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Carter Hart re-signing at $4 million per year is on the high end of the bridge deals compared to what just about every other goalie has gotten. It's about fair all things considered, but focusing on last year's numbers it is a bit of a gamble from Philly, and a little higher than we might have expected. Hart should rebound this year, and the team in front of him has improved during the offseason (at least on paper). He's talented enough to bounce back and perform like a top-five goalie in the league.
More in the ballpark of what I expected for a second contract, Ilya Samsonov re-signed on a one-year deal with a $2 million AAV. Washington's goaltending is extremely cap efficient between Samsonov's new deal, and the last year of Vitek Vanacek at under $800K.
Speaking of goalie contracts, without fail goalies would end up getting a bridge deal of some sort before signing their big-ticket contract in the cap era. That just changed with Igor Shesterkin who signed a four-year extension at a shade under $6 million per year. That is almost dead on what my projections had for him, and the break from the usual contract path is likely due to his pro experience in Russia, and coming across to take the starter's role right away. There is no need to bridge a goalie with this kind of talent, especially if the Rangers are going to be getting into a cap crunch soon; the more they can map out earlier, the better.
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Stanley Cup clincher Ross Colton re-upped with the Lightning, and after the expected exodus of a few contracts, their forward ranks are going to look very different for the upcoming year. The top-six is set with returnees, while Colton looks to be in line for the third-line centre spot, potentially joined by Matthew Joseph and one other youngster. That last spot on the third line should be a battle between the players on two-way deals: Alex Barre-Boulet (the favourite), Gemel Smith, Boris Katchouk, and Taylor Raddysh. The fourth line will be the veteran reinforcements of Corey Perry, Pierre Edouard-Bellemare, and Pat Maroon. Lots of potential under-the-radar fantasy value on that third line.
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I have also been working on the one-way contracts section of the guide. There are always at least one or two breakouts you can find by using these contracts to see who will get the first opportunity in camp. These aren't the guys going at the top of your fantasy drafts, but they are the ones to take fliers on in the later rounds, and to stock your farm with in dynasty leagues. Here's a sample:
Alexander Volkov RW, Anaheim Ducks
Cap Hit: $925,000
Another skilled winger that just couldn't find enough ice time with the Lightning, Volkov is looking to follow in the path of Jonathan Marchessault, Carter Verhaeghe, and others. He has the talent to do so, but he just needs to put the pieces together and seize his opportunity. There are a lot of skilled youngsters in the Ducks' system, but Volkov should have a spot in the top-nine locked up barring more significant moves.
The Ducks really haven't done a lot in free agency, so there is room for the young guys to push for lineup spots, and to net some really solid ice time over the course of the season. They have re-signed a lot of their own RFAs though, the latest being Maxine Comtois and Max Jones. Both received modest raises, and they are on the typical contract progression path. Both are excellent players to look into buying in multi-category leagues.
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RIP to one of the greats.
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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.
Stay safe!