There were a couple very notable signings in the NHL yesterday.

 First, the Hurricanes signed young star Andrei Svechnikov to an eight-year deal worth $7.75M a season. He will be UFA at the end of the deal but this carries him through his entire prime. It is a very smart bet. Coincidentally, I wrote about Svech earlier this week.

Whether he's worth it in cap leagues will be very close. He is now being paid like a top-50 player in the league. To be worth it in fantasy, he needs a commensurate performance, and likely better than top-50 given how important ELC contracts are. So, anyone in cap leagues needs to figure out if they think Svech can be a perennial, say, top-40 fantasy player. In hits leagues, it's close. In non-hits leagues, I'm not so sure.

The Flyers also locked up Sean Couturier for eight years and the same AAV as Svechnikov. This will carry Couturier, who turns 29 in December, through his mid-30s. Like Svech, it'll depend on the league as to whether he's worth that cap hit. He could be worth it in leagues without hits but with faceoffs. He might not be worth it in almost any other format, especially at a position as deep as centre.

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Today, I want to take the time today to talk about a trio of players that are all going to be drafted outside the top-100 players this year but each of them have top-100 upside. In fact, just going by Yahoo!'s early ADP, all three players may be selected outside the top-150, and that could be a gift for each of these players. Let's dig in.

Conor Garland

This player could see varying values depending on the fantasy league. Fans from certain teams, depending on the league, will just value their favourite team's players higher. We have all been in leagues with Leafs or Habs fans that do this. Just beware of your Canucks fans.

Anyway, Garland was traded to Vancouver in the offseason as part of the OEL package. He has 47 goals in 164 career games, or over 20 goals every 82 games. That may not seem great, but only 11 of those goals have come on the power play and he's averaged under 15 minutes a game in his three seasons. Translate those goals on a per-minute basis and it works out to 1.04 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since 2018, just behind Brayden Point and just ahead of Mark Stone. At all strengths, his goals rate is just behind Stone, tied with Anders Lee, and just ahead of Brock Boeser. There is a reason he was coveted and extended immediately by the Canucks.

He isn't just a shooter, though. From Corey Sznajder's data, he was above-average in both zone exits and entries with control per minute in his first two seasons. He isn't elite or anything, but good is better than bad. In just 2021, he had a similar high-danger pass rate (passes across the slot or from behind the net) as Mitch Marner and Johnny Gaudreau. He may not be great in transition, but once he gets the puck in the offensive zone, he's a threat as a shooter or as a passer. That makes him a very dangerous offensive player (from HockeyViz):

I don't have doubts Garland can score 30 goals with the Canucks in the right situation. The question is if he'll get 17 minutes a night playing with Bo Horvat and on the second PP unit, or 19 minutes a night playing with Elias Pettersson and on the top PP unit. With Horvat, Pettersson, Miller, and Boeser likely locks for the top PP unit, I have my doubts. That isn't going to kill Garland's value, but I think it takes 35-goal upside out of the equation. At this point, if he's not top PP, 30 goals are his upside, not a reasonable expectation.

There are a lot of questions about the Canucks in general. Do they use Jason Dickinson as the 3C, or J.T. Miller? That could change which line Garland skates on. Do they use their typical four forwards on the top PP unit? Does Vasily Podkolzin make the lineup opening night? I am a big fan of Garland but he won't bring peripherals in multi-cat leagues. He is a target in non-hits leagues, but in hits leagues, just beware of his upside when drafting him.

Dylan Larkin

It has been quite the start to Larkin's career. He had just 77 points in his first 160 games, but then posted 136 points in his next 150 games. At that point, it looked like perennial fantasy stardom was on the docket. Unfortunately, that has been followed up with 76 points in 115 games, a decline from where he was. One reason for this is his team; the Red Wings have been stripping parts for years now and the last two seasons have seen awful rosters. This is the first year where the future should be in full effect, with guys like Raymond and Seider fighting for roster spots, and guys like Vrana, Rasmussen, and Fabbri should have full-time roles. Add a healthy Tyler Bertuzzi and some new puck-moving defencemen, and this is the best Wings roster in a few years. That isn't a high bar, but it's worth noting for Larkin's biggest problem: goals.

Larkin has over 430 career regular season games and is a career 9.1 percent shooter. That is really bad for a forward. He has also shot 7.9 percent at 5-on-5. For reference, that is tied with Wayne Simmonds in that same span, and worse than Chris Tierney and Matt Nieto. Those are not names you want to be surrounded by in 5-on-5 finishing.

The more I write about hockey, the more I believe that a player's teammates are paramount for success. Maybe even more so than individual talent. (Just think of the marginal players that have had great seasons playing with Sidney Crosby or Joe Thornton over the years.) Maybe Larkin really is just a bad finisher, but I don't think we've seen him have a consistently good offensive team in that time. He had good line mates at times, and that's where we saw him put up good seasons. As an example, the team's goal rate with him and Bertuzzi on the ice over the last three years is 3.0; when Larkin is on without Bertuzzi it falls to 1.75. There isn't as big a gap with Larkin/Mantha as with Larkin/Bertuzzi, but there is a big gap (over half a goal per 60 minutes). All this is to say, if Larkin wasn't playing with at least one of Bertuzzi/Mantha, there just wasn't talent elsewhere to help Larkin out. I believe that changes this year with the influx of offensive talent across the last couple seasons.

Last year, Larkin was the only Detroit forward to be average by both shot rate and primary shot assist rate. The problem was there were few players with proficient playmaking as his line mates, and so he suffered. Assuming guys like Vrana, Bertuzzi, and Fabbri can stay healthy, that concern shouldn't be there this year.

Part of the frustration with Larkin is the fluctuation in hit rate; he was nearly a hit-per-game in 2017-2019, but is well below a hit per game over the last two years. To really hit his stride, he has to get back to 70-80 hits this year. If all breaks right with the team's offence this year, he can get back to 70 points. He is a buy at the draft table. If the team starts to right itself, he'll never be cheaper in drafts again than he is this year.

Pavel Buchnevich

This is weird to me. He is coming off a season where he had 20 goals and 48 points in 54 games yet is being drafted in a tier with Jakub Voracek and Viktor Arvidsson. At worst, he has similar upsides to them and I believe he has a higher upside than either of them. It seems people are worried about the move to St. Louis, and that's understandable. Playing with Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin is a big help to anyone. It isn't as if St. Louis is a dead zone offensively, though. They've outscored both Winnipeg and Chicago over the last two seasons.

What is complicating things here is Vladimir Tarasenko. Assuming he's not traded before the season, they have the top-6 on the right side filled. While Buch is a left shot, he played a lot of right wing in New York. If he doesn't want to move to the left, he could be on the third line. If he does, he still has to contend with Brandon Saad and possibly Brayden Schenn, depending if they want him in the middle. In theory, the St. Louis top-6 could look something like this:

Saad-ROR-Tarasenko

Schenn-Thomas-Perron

That would screw over Buch's value, and maybe that's where the concern comes from.

Personally, I think Schenn plays the middle on the second line and that leaves Buch as a top-6 left winger. Just beware that Perron was the only regular winger over 18 minutes a game last year. Buch played a career-high 18:44 in 2021, so he's assuredly going to lose ice time. The question is how much.

Even if he's down to 17:30 a night, I think Buch still has higher upside than Voracek or Arvidsson, especially in hits leagues. He also has a shot at the top PP unit. Tarasenko's future is uncertain and that leaves a fourth forward necessary after Schenn/ROR/Perron. He is a left shot, like Tarasenko. Just saying.

I get the trepidation with Buch but I do think he's a wonderful offensive player. He was genuinely the Rangers' best dual threat (shooting+playmaking) last year aside from Panarin and was elite in transition. That type of offensive ability is dangerous anywhere as long as he gets decent line mates, and he will in St. Louis.

Alright, those are three guys that are being drafted outside the top-100, or even the top-150, that I think have very reasonable chances at finishing as top-100 players. There are more to add to this list as we get through the offseason, but who else belongs on this list? Hit me up.