Pierre Dorion was extended for another four seasons, plus given a club option which would take him to 2026. That’s certainly enough time for him to see through the rebuild they have been working on in Ottawa. Hopefully by then he doesn’t have to trade away everyone who is making more in salary than their listed cap hit – and for Dorion’s sake I hope his contract isn’t back-loaded either.

Need to see the contract structure to know how long until he gets traded. https://t.co/g844XmVGBZ

— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) September 7, 2021

If you’re not sure what I mean by that, take a look at the most recent example, Evgenii Dadonov. The Russian winger signed a three-year deal in Ottawa, with a back-loaded deal that saw him paid $3.5 million the first year, $5 million the second year, and $6.5 million the third year, which averaged out to a $5 million AAV. Ottawa banked his cheap year, and then traded him for assets in the summer between year one and year two, shipping out the fiscally expensive years of his contract.

Josh Brown, Nick Paul, and Connor Brown are the three current players on the roster being paid more in salary than their listed AAV. Odds are if anyone is traded off of the Senators’ roster this year, it will be one or more of those three names.

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With Bubble Keeper Week in full swing, I wanted to look at an angle of it that maybe isn't discussed as often, and that's when to cut bait with your aging keeper-level players.

I know a couple of people this offseason that are wrestling with Alex Ovechkin, and whether he is worth keeping for the life of his next contract (and not having him come off the cap until he's 40), or just trying to sort out if he's worth keeping over options like Brady Tkachuk, Jonathan Huberdeau, or Mitch Marner. Ovechkin is elite in leagues with shots and hits counted on top of points, however, there comes a point where the immediate payoff is so marginally slim that a larger future payoff really starts to tip the scales. Keeping Huberdeau over Ovechkin doesn't seem far-fetched at this point, but where do you draw the line. How about Elias Lindholm or Alex Debrincat? I think at that point it depends on your contention window.

Most won't have to decide about whether or not to keep Ovechkin though, because there are very few players to keep over him. Other players in the age 34+ category aren't so fortunate. What then do we do with them? Sometimes, like Joe Pavelski last year, they become must-owns in every league format.

In leagues with faceoff wins, Patrice Bergeron and Anze Kopitar are must-owns, and often in most other leagues as well. Pavelski holds his value well too when faceoffs count, especially in Yahoo leagues where his wing eligibility is important. Aside from that though, you do start to wonder when it's worth keeping someone who is primed to break out like a Kaapo Kakko over a guy like Kopitar. What I find to be useful in helping to address the decision, is by taking 10% of the projected point production off of players over the age of 33 or so, and using that to compare to the projected numbers for the younger player. With projecting Kopitar around 70 points, and Kakko around 55, it still makes sense to keep Kopitar over Kakko at this point, but next year may be the year to take the youngster.

Other forwards including T.J. Oshie, Dustin Brown, Jason Spezza, and Jeff Carter are possible older keeper options depending on the league. Oshie and Brown are excellent owns in leagues that also count shots and hits, though their style of play does make it a little more worrisome that they can keep up their high level. If you have options on a similar level to them, it may be best to cut bait with these two (Brown more so than Oshie though).

Meanwhile, Spezza and Carter's games are built a little bit more on skill and smarts (and for Carter a large shot volume) which tends to lend itself more to longevity. Yes, you still want to consider knocking a percentage off of their projected totals when equating them to other keepers, but they are also more predictable in what they can produce, and predictability in your final keepers can be a valuable thing if you don't have options with high ceilings to shoot with.

On defence, there are a few fantasy relevant greybeards this year (yes, it is a little funny to call a 35-year-old a greybeard, but it's all relative). Ryan Suter is looking to find some new life in Dallas. Keith Yandle is looking to keep his Iron-Man streak going in Philadelphia, while also hopefully taking over the top power play unit. Meanwhile, Alec Martinez is looking to re-produce his career season as the number-three in Vegas, with a new contract in his back pocket. At the age of 36, Suter is the most worrisome of the bunch as he just put up the worst offensive numbers since his sophomore season. He has averaged at least two minutes of power play ice time per game every year dating back to the 2005 lockout, but with Dallas not in need of offensive defencemen, that opportunity may vanish, and along with it, the rest of his fantasy value.

Yandle will likely retain value in points-only leagues as long as he is on one of the Flyers' power play units, but just like Shayne Gostisbehere before him, there is no guarantee that the magic lasts. If he is someone on the bubble or that you are certainly planning on keeping, look to sell high a few weeks into the season.

The only real bubble keeper option that is also relevant as a goaltender over the age of 34 right now is Anton Khudobin. He has a lot of competition this year with the youngster Jake Oettinger, the newcomer Braden Holtby, and the incumbent Ben Bishop possibly returning from injury as well. Khudobin will likely get the opening night start though, and on a bubble playoff team with a solid defensive scheme like Dallas, there should be some excellent value if your league is more ratio based than volume based. Because of all of the competition for starts, the volume won't be there for Khudobin this year, and at this point, his numbers may have peaked already. He's certainly a very viable option as the second goalie on your team, but just beware of expectations, especially in leagues where you need to hit minimum starts and don't want to roster too many goalies.

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While sitting on your keeper lists, if you want to do some other hockey reading to distract you and let the keeper decisions sit on the back-burner, here's a great place to start:

Check out our page for #2022NHLDraft eligibles where we will be adding new scouting reports and updates throughout the season!

Make sure to click on the "observations" button from the player profile pages to see the latest reports!https://t.co/5V85bihyY0

— DobberProspects (@DobberProspects) September 7, 2021

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I want to also go through one league of mine and the bubble keeper decisions there. In one partial keeper league I have it's a 12-team, keep 11 (six forwards, four defenceman, one goalie), and I had quite a few decisions to make. I have a few thought experiments that usually help me solve any keeper dilemmas though, and maybe this approach can help you as well.

First off, you generally know which players you have that are in your top-tier as locks to be kept. On top of that, if you can condense any of the secondary players into a single other lock-type player, that's gravy. From there, you're left with a whole bunch of players that you could reasonably keep with your next set. I typically try and trade off as many of that tier as possible, and sometimes that takes all of the decisions out of the equation. If you trade all but two of those players and you need two more keepers, then you're set! Unfortunately, it usually doesn't work like that.

Once I get to the stage of there not being any more trades to be made, and needing to sort out who to keep and who to toss, I start making a few mental lists. These lists are typically along the lines of: Who would get re-drafted first, who could I trade for again the easiest, which players might best fit into my strategy for the upcoming season (and if you don't have a strategy, make one and come back to this step when you have one), and, which players are more valuable based on age, position, or some other factor aside from production. Once you have those kinds of ideas straight, your keeper picture usually looks much clearer. I'll run through my 12-team, keep-11 league for you to show you how I apply it.

Keep in mind that we start four centres, four left-wings, four right-wings, six defencemen, two goalies, and have four bench slots. The scoring categories for skaters are goals, assists, power play points, shots, hits, blocks, and faceoff wins; for goalies it is wins, saves, goals against average, and save percentage. The lack of plus-minus and the inclusion of faceoff wins really shifts the value on some players. With the league being hosted on Yahoo, the FOWs from the wing are especially critical.

My forwards in this league from last season included: Brayden Point, Aleksander Barkov, Max Pacioretty, Blake Wheeler, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, Tomas Hertl, Anze Kopitar, Brayden Schenn, Drake Batherson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Vladimir Tarasenko, Phillip Danault, Ryan Strome, Jonathan Toews.

That's a lot of worthwhile keeper names to squeeze into six spots, I know (I lost in the semis last year by one shot… still not bitter). Anyways, the locks are Point and Barkov, with the rest of the list viable in one way or another. My strategy is always to try and lock up the volume categories, so that means shots, faceoff wins, and hits are must haves for forwards, without sacrificing too much offence. With Point being RW eligible this year too, I don't mind keeping O'Reilly and Kopitar to lock up my FOWs, with only my pure Cs. They would be the top-two for my strategy list. That frees up my wing options a lot come draft time. Both of those names are also near the top or at the top of my other lists of who would be drafted first and tough to trade for. After that, I need two wingers, because I don't trust Toews' health enough to keep him over these safer options.

Needing to make up a bit on shots and hits to cover my Cs, I am opting for Schenn and Pacioretty as my other two keepers. Hertl and Forsberg were my toughest cuts, but they don't quite have the same level of cross category production, and both have been a little iffy with injuries and slumps of late. Batherson is a favourite of mine, and may be tougher to trade for after the draft, but he's also someone that doesn't quite have the same name value and may slip a bit down the draft.

To complete the example, the top-end of my lists would have looked something like this:

Moving on to the defencemen, my team from last season finished with: Ty Smith, Seth Jones, Darnell Nurse, K'Andre Miller, Dante Fabbro, Philippe Myers, Ryan Pulock, and a stashed Victor Soderstrom. Soderstrom, Myers, and Fabbro are the easy cuts, with Jones, Nurse, and Pulock (excellent peripherals) being the easy keeps. That brings in back to Miller and Smith with the final keeper spot. Smith has more name value, and might put up a few more points than Miller this season, but if I really wanted to re-acquire either, neither would be too expensive. That means I lean towards Miller who offers more stat-stuffing ability, and he fits better with my strategy list, especially needing to load up on blocks from the defencemen.

In net, both volume and ratios are important, and I make sure to try and lock up at least one of those sets every week. My goalies from the last season offer a few options with that: Carey Price, Robin Lehner, and Jack Campbell. With Price I could draft another volume starter or two and lock up the volume stats most weeks and still do fairly well in the ratios. Not a bad option. Campbell would afford me the opposite approach, but it's Lehner that makes the most sense as probably the most valuable overall due to workload and team, but also because of the strategical flexibility that he affords. Now I can wait on my second goalie in the draft to see who slips. If it's someone like Petr Mrazek or Jake Allen who won't play as much but should keep solid ratios, then I can lock those down. If only some of the volume guys on poorer teams are left like Alex Nedeljkovic or Matt Murray, then I have the option to run with that too. Lehner is also going much earlier than the other two in drafts, and would be much harder to acquire even if he hits a cold streak. Price I could buy low on if he's not healthy to start the season, and Campbell I could buy low on as soon as Mrazek is given two starts in a row.

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In women's hockey news:

The NWHL has officially launched a new era with the introduction of a name change and refreshed logo ahead of the 2021-22 season:

The Premier Hockey Federation
👑: https://t.co/bAdXicSa9l pic.twitter.com/rbydOwQlkd

— PHF (@NWHL) September 7, 2021

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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey bubble keeper questions.

Stay safe!