Bubble Keeper Week rolls along here at Dobber. The purpose of this exercise, which stretches across the entire site and bevy of writers, is to dig deeper into fantasy drafts. We all know how to navigate the top of the draft, for the most part. It is in the later rounds where leagues are won or lost, and where the hardest keeper decisions are made.

To help our readers, I'm going to go through a litany of either/or decisions people may be facing. For today, we'll be focusing on forwards, with defencemen and goalies to follow tomorrow. I will be using the same process I used a couple days ago in my Ramblings on Drake Batherson and Josh Norris. That is using Yahoo! ADP and looking for players with similar draft rates. It's the best comparisons we have available right now. That means using Yahoo! scoring, which is G/A/PPP/SOG/+-/Hit We all good? Good. Let's dig in.

Jared McCann vs. Jack Roslovic

It was a breakout year for McCann, who posted 32 points in 43 games. That is three points of his career-best, accomplished twice in 66 games and 78 games. He was coveted in the offseason and now finds himself a member of the expansion Seattle Kraken. That is where it could be a problem. McCann was with Pittsburgh last year, looked to be with Toronto this year, but now looks as if he'll line up on the second line in Seattle. The team can put together a good top line – Schwartz/Gourde/Eberle – but there isn't a lot of scoring depth beyond that. Expecting near 60 points for McCann is expecting too much, even if he's playing 17 minutes a night. He can provide about one hit and two shots per game at least, though, so that's something that'll help.

Jack Roslovic also had a breakout year, but an uneven one. He had 13 points in his first 15 games with Columbus, but that was followed with just 21 points in 33 games following. All told, his 82-game pace was 58 points, and that's instructive for us. There is a new, hopefully more offensively-oriented, coaching staff, and he's the top-line centre. Roslovic is nearly assured top-line, top PP status, which is something McCann may not be able to say. He doesn't shoot or hit as much as McCann, but he should out-produce him this year, and not by an insignificant amount.

Verdict: Keep Roslovic

Joel Eriksson Ek vs. Pierre-Luc Dubois

The key for Eriksson Ek's fantasy value this year is going to be his role. Along with Marcus Foligno, Eriksson Ek helps form arguably the best defensive line in hockey. They have often been used in some combination as the shutdown line for a couple years now. With the impending emergences of Marco Rossi and Matthew Boldy, they may not need him to play true top-line minutes anymore. He could easily morph into that Jordan Staal role, playing 18 minutes a night of shutdown time. He may not even get top PP minutes, depending how good Rossi is out of the gate. He does provide a lot of hits and a good amount of shots, though, so he doesn't need 60 points for fantasy value.

Unlike Eriksson Ek, Dubois already has a history of production. He averaged 55 points/82 games through his first three years, putting up over two shots and roughly 1.5 hits per game. If he can produce like that in Winnipeg, he'll likely carry more value than Eriksson Ek (especially in leagues not counting faceoffs). It was a bad, bad year for Dubois, who saw his offensive play-driving numbers completely disappear. A guy with his track record should be given the benefit of the doubt for one bad shortened season, but he also won't get prime minutes, either. That includes top PP time, as Paul Stastny was brought back and he was often on the top PP unit. If Dubois is second line, second PP unit, how much upside does he really have. I would say not much more than 55 points. The uncertainty of his role makes this a big risk.

Verdict: Eriksson Ek

Victor Olofsson vs. Yegor Sharangovich

Olofsson has had a good start to his NHL career. He's averaged 25 goals every 82 games, spanning 116 contests. Of course, the big change for him will likely be that Jack Eichel has played his last game in a Sabres uniform. In those 116 games, spanning over 1616 minutes at 5-on-5, the team scored nearly a quarter goal less with Olofsson on the ice with Eichel than any other centre. He also played with Eichel for over half his 5v5 TOI, and that includes all the time Eichel missed with injury. Olofsson is a shooting bot, and he needs a great centre to get him the puck; his offensive play-driving is a full standard deviation below league average. He does not have an elite centre anymore, or even a good one. This could be a real tough year for Olofsson. On top of all this, he brings little in peripherals. He's firmly on my Do Not Draft list.  

On the flipside, Sharangovich is just starting off and the team is on the rise. With Nico Hischier returning, there isn't much concern about Sharangovich playing with a bad centre, he will get either Hischier or Jack Hughes. What is most notable about the Belarussian's season is how much ice time he earned as it wore on: he played 13:45 through the end of February and that rose to a shade under 18 minutes a night by the end of the year. We should also mention that on a per-minute basis, he was top-30 league-wide in shot rate, nestled between Jakub Vrana and Andrei Svechnikov. If he plays 18 minutes a night, 2.5 shots a night is very doable. He has 20 goals, 50 points, and 200 shots in his sights. This is an easy decision.

Verdict: Sharangovich

Max Comtois vs. Oliver Wahlstrom

Anyone who regularly reads my stuff knows I'm a big fan of both these players. Comtois has a pedigree behind him, putting up over 1.5 points per game in his D+1 year in the QMJHL, had 24 points in 31 AHL games a couple seasons ago, and 33 points in 55 games last year. Whether QMJHL, AHL, or NHL, he's produced at every level. Anaheim is starting to round into form a bit, and are playing in a weak division. With a bit more ice time, that he should get, Comtois is a real threat for 25 goals, 175 shots, and 175 hits. Those are eye-popping numbers for a guy who can probably be drafted around pick-200. His environment is a concern, but he got through it last year. I bet he can do it again.

Wahlstrom looked poised for a bigger role with the Islanders, building off a season where he had 12 goals in 44 games playing just 12 minutes a night. Unfortunately, the team re-signed Kyle Palmieri. That gives them Palmieri, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, and Anthony Beauvillier for the top-6 winger spots. It looks as if Wahlstrom will be on the third line again. He may not play more than 14 minutes a night this year. That's an improvement, but it's not really enough to justify a high draft selection. His lack of ice time means that he could outproduce Comtois across the board on a per-minute basis, and still be the worse fantasy asset.

Verdict: Comtois in the near-term, Wahlstrom 3+ years down the road

*

Coincidentally enough, Rick Roos talked about Jared McCann in his column yesterday. He dropped a poll to see how many players who played around a 60-point pace last year could do so again this year, and McCann is one of them. Obviously, I don't think McCann will be able to do it and he doesn't seem to be getting a lot of votes on Roos's poll. Only five of 30 respondents (when I wrote this) had him on the list of 60-point possibilities. Maybe he comes in at a good draft price?

*

Did everyone grab their copy of the 2021 Dobber Hockey Guide from the Dobber Shop?

*

The news for Boston keeps rolling in:

Charlie Coyle said he could have some limitations to start training camp but should be fully ready by the start of the season.

— Amalie Benjamin (@AmalieBenjamin) September 8, 2021

That isn't really great news. No one wants a player, particularly a 2C on a Cup contender, starting camp injured. We'll pass more along as we get it.

*

The Penguins have some big news regarding captain Sidney Crosby:

Penguins captain Sidney Crosby underwent a successful wrist procedure today.

Crosby will miss the start of training camp and is expected to be sidelined for a minimum of six weeks.

Full details: https://t.co/Vi8y0UWzQF pic.twitter.com/rT2emh9pE4

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) September 8, 2021

GM Ron Hextall would follow that up saying it was a surgery on something he's played through for years. It doesn't seem major, but this timeline would have him miss the start of the regular season. If all goes well, maybe just a few games, so it's not a major hit to his fantasy value.

There are also the Olympics to consider for him eventually. It's hard to imagine him sitting home to rest but I suppose that's something that could be on the table eventually.

*

As mentioned earlier, I'm going to do my next Ramblings on defencemen or goalies. If there are any specific comparisons readers want, hit me up on Twitter.

*

One interesting comparison that I won't make because they aren't officially bubble keepers is Morgan Rielly vs. Quinn Hughes. I think these two players are fairly close together in terms of true on-ice talent, but I'm not all that sure they have similar upside in fantasy anymore. It does appear Rielly's role, at least in terms of shooting, is being minimized. There is, however, the contract-year bump to consider. What do y'all think?