Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Pittsburgh Penguins
Ian Gooding
2021-09-10
For the last 18 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 19th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
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Gone – Jared McCann, Brandon Tanev, Frederick Gaudreau, Mark Jankowski, Colton Sceviour, Cody Ceci
Incoming – Danton Heinen, Brock McGinn, Dominik Simon, Michael Chaput
Impact of Changes – In spite of another first round/qualifying round loss, the Penguins did not opt for any massive changes. That included not signing another goalie to give Tristan Jarry some competition, and keeping the core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang together. With Malkin and Letang each well over 30 and on the final year of their contracts, it's possible that this could be the "last dance" for this group before an inevitable teardown.
Knowing they could lose him in the expansion draft for nothing, Penguins GM Ron Hextall dealt McCann to the Leafs for Filip Hallander and a seventh-round pick. Then the Pens lost Tanev and his $3.5 million cap hit for four more years to Seattle. McGinn figures to replace Tanev while offering a similar scoring pace with less physicality and a slightly lower cap hit ($2.75 million). Meanwhile, Heinen will be given the opportunity to get his career back on track after a 47-point rookie season in 2017-18.
Ready for Full Time – Samuel Poulin spent all of 2020-21 in the QMJHL, scoring 31 points in 24 regular-season games along with 19 points (including 11 goals) in 15 playoff games. He has power forward size (6-2, 214 lbs), which makes him a potential player to keep an eye on in bangers league. With that, it might be a while before he makes an impact in fantasy leagues, as he might be projected for the AHL this season. However, he brings exactly the type of skill set that the Penguins could use, even on a scoring line. Don't be surprised if he's given a trial on the top 6 at some point during the season.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph is a potential long-term replacement for Letang, but he's definitely not ready to step into that role immediately. When he was recalled by the Penguins in 2020-21, there was some thought that he might be ready after he recorded five points in his first seven games, including a three-assist effort. Yet with no points in his next nine games, he was sent to the AHL, where he scored 13 points in 23 games. There's a lot to like here in terms of offensive upside, even potentially in the short term if the Penguins can find a way to extend their window.
Fantasy Outlook:
Crosby underwent a wrist procedure on September 8, which was expected to sideline him for a minimum of six weeks. That will likely run through training camp and even a few games to start the season. Malkin underwent much-needed knee surgery after being hobbled for a chunk of the 2020-21 season, so he will likely miss the start of the season as well. Assuming both miss games to start the season, Jeff Carter will be leaned on heavily with increased minutes, giving him the opportunity to build on his success as a Penguin (nine goals and 11 points in 14 regular-season games, four goals in six playoff games). Crosby isn't expected to miss more than a handful of games, but the thinking is that Malkin will be out longer. Teddy Blueger, who scored at a half-point per game in 2020-21 (22 PTS in 43 GP), might also see an increase in value, as could Evan Rodrigues.
Jake Guentzel was down nearly a shot per game, but he only decreased from a 42-goal pace to about a 34-goal pace. Bryan Rust has now solidified himself as a top-line option, even if that's at a 0.75 PTS/GP pace as opposed to the point-per-game pace he produced in 2019-20. Kasperi Kapanen produced a career high 0.75 PTS/GP himself (30 points in 30 games), but beware of his higher-than-normal 16.2 SH%, along with other advanced stats (12.7 5on5 SH%, 2.9 PTS/60, 1058 PDO) that show that luck was on his side. Jason Zucker was held back by reduced power-play time, as he had recorded just four power-play points in 2020-21 after scoring at least 12 PPP in each of his previous three seasons.
After years of being the ultimate Band-Aid Boy, Letang missed only one game in 2020-21. He's still a highly productive option, but age-related decline and further injury woes could begin to creep in. Joseph (mentioned above) is a potential replacement should Letang leave via free agency. So is John Marino, who regressed after a near-40-point pace in 2019-20. Mike Matheson has shown flashes of offensive talent, but his offensive output reflects his defensive game – inconsistent.
Can fantasy owners trust Jarry? No doubt they will remember his playoff woes (3.18 GAA, .888 SV%), where he allowed fewer than three goals in only one of six playoff games. Win or lose, the Pens are committed to Jarry for two more seasons, and he might even provide solid value from where you'll be able to draft him. Backup Casey DeSmith was hurt during the playoffs, so he could not step in when Jarry struggled. As far as being a competitor for the #1 job, DeSmith isn't it, but he provides decent spot starts when called upon.
Fantasy Grade: B+ (last year was also B+)
2021 Offseason Fantasy Grades