Fantasy Hockey Poll: Starting Goalie Battles

Rick Roos

2021-10-06

Maybe it was because of the shortened seasons, or perhaps it's the new normal, but one thing for sure is the last two campaigns have featured more "come from nowhere" goalies than any in recent memory. Will 2021-22 (which, if all goes as intended, will end up the first with 82 games since 2018-19), be a roller coaster ride when it comes to goalies, or will things renormalize? Let's see what your votes have to say!

One of the key features of the Dobberhockey Fantasy Guide (still available for order here) is the confidence level that a particular goalie will be the "starter" for each team. And although for most squads the confidence level is high, i.e., above 75%, there are a number of teams for which it is 75% or less. In those cases, it often ends up being a 1A/1B situation, or even one where a third goalie emerges, resulting in no goalie starting more than 60% of its team's games. It also can occur that a netminder seizes the crease and, despite projections, ends up with the majority of its team's starts.

After you've read the choices, you should vote for any goalie whom you believe will start 60% or more of his team's games, which, in an 82-game season, means 49.2 starts, so let's just call it an even 50 starts. And in the previous sentence I meant "any goalie," since you should vote for as many goalies – or as few – as you want, provided you think each for whom you cast a vote will start 50 or more of his team's games this for the 2021-22 campaign. That means you can vote for as many as ten choices, if indeed you think one from each of the ten teams will start 50+ of its games. If you believe neither of the two options from all ten teams will in fact start 60% of his team's games, then you should vote for none of the 20 choices.

Note that if recent seasons are any indication, someone other than the two listed goalies will start more games than at least one of the listed two. That's not consequential here, as it wouldn't change your vote since it would mean neither of the two listed netminders will have started 60%, so neither one should get your vote. Lastly, let me underscore that although these polls are meant to be enjoyable, please vote objectively, as the results could help shape keeper and/or draft decisions.

Okay – enough build up; here are the actual 20 (i.e., ten team) choices, alphabetically by their team and with the preseason "favorite" listed first. I won't actually identify the percentages of each being the starter though; you'll have to buy the Guide for that precious information!

Arizona – Carter Hutton/Josef Korenar

Most figured Arizona would add someone to the mix, but it appears they're marching into battle with these two as their netminder tandem. With neither one "looking the part" of a #1, it could be that they simply split time. In instances like these what can end up happening is one of the two realizes the pressure is completely off and proceeds to play a lot better than the other, locking down the starting gig in the process.

Buffalo – Craig Anderson/Aaron Dell

The Sabres aren't exactly stacking the deck here either, with Anderson's best days likely long behind him and Dell having failed to seize the starting job in San Jose even when Martin Jones was imploding. Still, as with Arizona, with expectations set so low one of them might step up and play well, or at least better than the other enough to end up starting the lion's share of games this season.

Columbus – Elvis Merzlikins/Joonas Korpisalo

It seemed as though ex-coach John Tortorella preferred Korpisalo; yet it was Merzlikens who put together a stretch in 2019-20 of nearly unstoppable play, has better career numbers, plus was signed to a five-year deal just recently. The team is saying that the net isn't necessarily Elvis' by default, and Korpisalo has more than double the experience in terms of career games played and – unlike Merzlikens – will be motivated by playing for a new deal. Although Columbus would be thrilled if Elvis stepped into the starter role, anything still could happen this season.

Dallas – Anton Khudobin/Jake Oettinger/Braden Holtby/Ben Bishop

If Bishop hadn't spent over a year on the shelf, this would likely be a non-issue; however, he's entering the season with a lot of question marks, and thus the team has a whopping four goalies under contract. Last season was supposed to see Khudobin take the starting job and run with it; however, Oettinger's play elevated him from heir apparent to being directly in the picture. Also lurking is Braden Holtby, who looks to be just there as insurance, although with goalies you never know what might happen. Seemingly it would take a lot for one of these four to rise above the rest and lock down the starting role.

Detroit – Alex Nedeljkovic/Thomas Greiss

When Carolina balked at paying Nedeljkovic what he wanted, Detroit was more than happy to take the Calder nominee off their hands. Yet let's not forget that as great as Neds looked at the end of last season, this is someone who's logged fewer than 30 NHL games. In the other corner is Greiss, the veteran who had decent numbers for Detroit last season all things considered, and who usually plays well enough to not be relegated to pure back-up. If Neds can show his strong play wasn't a short-term boost of good fortune, he could grab the starting reins, but so too could Greiss if Neds proves to be a one hit wonder. Or what could happen is the expected, with Neds is given a slightly larger workload but not the keys to the kingdom just yet.

New Jersey – MacKenzie Blackwood/Jonathan Bernier

Many view Blackwood as the incumbent and, at 24, the team's goalie of the future; but Bernier is being paid more and had far better numbers last season despite playing for the hapless Wings. While the Devils would like nothing more than for Blackwood to play his way into being the starter, if you read my most recent Goldipucks column you know that would be a tall order, plus he's not vaccinated, guaranteeing Bernier a certain number of starts and leaving Bernier even more primed to step into the role of starter for this season and perhaps beyond.

New York Islanders – Semyon Varlamov/Ilya Sorokin

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On any other team, either one would be a presumed starter, as their numbers were superb and only got better as the season wore on. But if Barry Trotz has shown anything in recent years it's a desire to have a two-headed goalie monster rather than a true starter. Barring one of them imploding or getting injured, it's hard not to expect more of the same for 2021-22.

San Jose – Adin Hill/James Reimer

Both are signed for this season and next and are being paid almost identically. The difference is Reimer is eight years older and has become a journeyman, whereas Hill is young but has yet to show he's capable of assume the role of starter. No question if one plays well enough the team would be more than willing to anoint him the starter; the issue is whether either of them has it in him to do so.

Toronto – Jack Campbell/Petr Mrazek

The former 11th overall pick Campbell now has sported a GAA over 2.30 or less and a SV% of .920 or above in two of the past three seasons. But he's never been put in a position where he could be "the guy" for a team. Mrazek, on the other hand, has been the presumed starter on more than one occasion for more than one team, with inconsistent play and/or injuries standing in the way of him making that leap. Whomever is able to better handle the spotlight of playing in Toronto likely will become the starter, unless neither one can do so, in which it will be a long season for them, Leafs fans, and poolies who own one or both.

Washington – Ilya Samsonov/Vitek Vanecek

No question Washington wants Samsonov to seize the reins. The issue is his play last season was inconsistent at best, and in fact since he came to North America his numbers have been a far cry from what they were in the KHL. That prompted the team to go and reacquire Vanacek after he was taken in the expansion draft. With neither making over $2M, or signed past this season, chances are it'll be a time share; however, the low salaries of both also would make it easier to relegate one to being a pure back-up if the other ended up playing head and shoulders above the other.

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Now that you've read the cases for and/or against each goalie, it's time to cast your vote(s). You should vote for as many goalies as you believe will start 60% of (i.e., 50+) his team's games, or, if you think that none will do so, you should not vote for any of the 20 options. To cast your votes, click here.

Note that in the poll you'll see one instance (i.e., Dallas) in which there are more than two goalies listed for one of the voting choices, with the frontrunner (Anton Khudobin) for the starting job listed as a lone choice but the others listed together at the other choice. Vote for Anton Khudobin if you think he'll meet the 50+ criteria or for the Jake Oettinger/Braden Holtby/Ben Bishop choice if you believe any one of them will do so. To be clear, the group of three shouldn't get your vote if you think that collectively they will start 50+ games; rather, vote for them only if it is your view that one of the three listed will start 50+ games. Of course if you believe that any Dallas goalie will individually start 50+ games, then don't vote for either option.

Scheduling Note and Questions for Mailbag Column

Next week is my annual 15 Fearless Forecasts column, which, in order to coincide with the first day of the season, will run on Tuesday instead of the usual Wednesday when Roos Lets Loose columns normally appear.But the following week things will be back to business as usual, with a Goldipucks column appearing on Wednesday.

My mailbag column will be running in a few weeks, and has of room for plenty of questions. Just be sure not to send keeper questions though, as the column won't go live until after the season has already begun. But any other type of question is welcomed. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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