Often I find that we're focusing on trying to find the later round gems, dealing with the middle-round decisions, and creating the best overall draft strategies that we completely overlook another key important decision. This decision sets the tone for the entire draft, and becomes a key component of your team all season long. That's right, this week I'm focusing on the first-round pick options (or top two rounds) and evaluating a few of the decisions that most of us are going to be facing with those picks.

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First overall we can all agree on Connor McDavid, right?

A closer look at McDavid's primary assist + Hyman's goal pic.twitter.com/TO6CTuuSG6

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) September 29, 2021

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The next tier is the two-to-four picks, with Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, and Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon tends to be the consensus pick at #2, but he also doesn't have winger eligibility like the other two, who have very similar scoring upside. Let's look at them side-by-side:

Draisaitl vs MacKinnon (*Kucherov didn’t play last year)

As you can see, Draisaitl actually has a sizeable edge over MacKinnon, and it may be due to riding shotgun with McDavid some of the time, but that doesn't matter because the duo will be playing on the same team for the foreseeable future, and the results are all that matter for us. Personally, I would have MacKinnon at #4, with Draisaitl at number two. That leaves the Tampa RW at number three.

We don't actually have any numbers for Kucherov last season as he missed the entire regular season recovering from surgery, but he looked back to his old self in the playoffs. Over his prior 150 games in the regular season he has scored at a 1.42 point per game pace, which is nearly identical to Leon Draisaitl since 2018-19. MacKinnon again comes in a little behind with a 1.29 mark, but he blows them both out of the water in the shots category.

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After the top-four, it becomes a bit more wide-open, but most drafts see the same two players going in the five and six slots. The first goalie going off the board is rightly, Andrei Vasilevskiy. If the GM drafting in the five slot isn't a fan of taking goalies that early then the GM with the sixth overall pick should be licking their lips that they are about to have a top-five player fall to them. Usually, when Vasilevskiy is passed on, it's Auston Matthews going fifth. Matthews should lead the league in goals, though there are a lot of other competitors. He has added a bit of a physical element to his game as well, and the trade value of being a Maple Leaf is usually not a bad thing to have on your side either.

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After sixth overall, it's more wide-open, and depends a little on your league's categories. Between Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, Jonathan Huberdeau, Artemi Panarin, and Brady Tkachuk, there's enough talent that you would almost rather pick 12^th than seventh this year. If your league counts shots and hits then Ovechkin and Tkachuk are usually two of the top options for the next set of picks. When defenceman points are counted, Makar is a first round pick, but in standard leagues he's a fringe first-rounder. Just because he isn't quite head-and-shoulders above the rest of his position as Vasilevskiy is, he doesn't warrant a pick in the top eight or so.

The rest of the first-round pick options are the guys who can put up 90 points while also bringing some kind of excellent peripheral production. Marchand, Pastrnak, and Ovechkin are the more proven commodities as well, so when in doubt they're usually the first ones off the board. Tkachuk's contract status is going to drop him one or two slots in the draft, while Rantanen, Panarin, and Huberdeau are the excellent consolation prizes if you're looking for a winger in the 10-14 range.

Let's compare a few of them as well:

Marchand vs Pastrnak

The Boston duo is tied together at the hip, and their production and plus-minus rates will follow the same flow. Marchand does tend to put up a few more points, but Pastrnak isn't spending this offseason recovering from surgery this time, so he should be able to start off hot just like that line usually does. Both are as safe bets as you can possibly make, and are warranted to be picked within the top-10. If you're looking for peripherals though, Marchand has the edge in hits, PIMs, and plus-minus, and is showing no signs of slowing down despite turning 33 this year.

Ovechkin vs Tkachuk

The two multi-category beasts are at opposite ends of their careers, and there is a valid debate over which you should be looking at first. Brady brings a ton more hits, and a few more shots, but the rest of the stats tilt in Ovechkin's favour. It's also tough to bet against Ovie as he is gunning for the all-time goals record. Depending on how your points are weighted against shots and hits, you can tilt the scales either way. In standard leagues though the goals tend to reign supreme, meaning Ovechkin should be the favourite. Also working against Brady is his lack of a contract, and the fact that we don't know if/when he will be back. He's a second-round pick at best until his status becomes clear.

Rantanen vs Huberdeau vs Panarin

The three skilled wingers are all locks to score over a point-per-game, but you don't draft these guys for the peripherals. Huberdeau led the group in hits with 51 last season, while Panarin had a measly 19 hits and penalty minutes combined. Rantanen led the group in shots, but if you're drafting these guys it's for the points ceiling. Panarin should finish a dozen points ahead of the other two over a full season, while Hubs and Rantanen will finish close to eachother around the 90- to 95-point mark. Rantanen has been a little better over the last couple years, but an improving supporting cast in Florida may add a few points to Huberdeau's total.

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Is there anyone else worthy of a first round selection in your standard 12-team league? If you really want a goalie, then the next pick should be one of Darcy Kuemper, Connor Hellebuyck, or Robin Lehner. Lehner is my personal pick, but all three should provide solid value this season. Your league would have to be very goalie friendly to warrant picking one of those guys in the first round over the available forwards though.

On defence, Victor Hedman, Dougie Hamilton, and Adam Fox are the next three best options, the order depending on the league categories. However, none of these options are worth spending a first rounder on (or a second for that matter).

That leaves the forwards. No breakout candidates like Alex Lafreniere or Jack Hughes are quite at the level yet of breaking out to a first round value, so we're looking for someone to take a smaller step forward, or someone returning to a first round form.

Returning to form would be Sidney Crosby (after he returns from injury), or Patrick Kane (while dealing with his nagging injury). Both could still put up 100 points if things fall the right way, but I think we have to expect 85-90 points from them in 70 games. That isn't quite enough to warrant a first round pick.

The other options that may have crossed your mind would be Aleksander Barkov, Andrei Svechnikov, Kirill Kaprizov, Mitch Marner, Brayden Point… and that should just about round out the top tier. All have high scoring upside, and in Svechnikov there's some excellent peripheral production as well. However, none are quite on the same level as those others mentioned above, and it's tough to make the case to select one of them over those going in the first round based on what we know now.

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Jumping back to the rebound potential guys, Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene may be guys to target. They are two thirds of the top-line in Nashville alongside Filip Forsberg, and after being tossed together in the playoffs last season, the trio looked dominant. They outscored the Hurricanes 4-2 in their 54 minutes together during the first round loss, making them the only line that showed well during the series. In the preseason the trio has also looked good, and gets loaded with all of the offensive zone time they can handle.

I think all three should pace for over 60 points this year, which would make the two $8 million men bargains at the draft table this year. It is going to be a trio that I will be targeting in my drafts, and I’m hoping my league-mates don’t read this far this week. Alas, those are the perils of sharing these fantasy thoughts.

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🖊 News | We've signed forward Josh Ho-Sang to a one-year AHL contract. #ForeverStartsHere

— Toronto Marlies (@TorontoMarlies) October 6, 2021

This means we’re likely seeing Nick Ritchie and Michael Bunting on the top two lines, despite some hoping for Josh Ho-Sang to get a shot there. He may if injuries strike.

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Speaking of injuries, Pavel Francouz went awkwardly into the post, and left last night’s exhibition game in some discomfort. That’s not a good sign after offseason hip surgery, and you can hear the faint sounds of Jonas Johansson winning 15 games this year just because he’s backstopping the Avalanche.

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Tampa vs Florida is going to be must-watch hockey this regular season, and into the playoffs too if we’re lucky to get the rematch. It’s also a matchup to keep your eye on if you need PIMs.

The Panthers and Lightning carried over some of those playoff ~vibes~ from the spring pic.twitter.com/HIJiZUbs6b

— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) October 6, 2021

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Feel free to either drop a comment, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions.

Stay safe!