The season is upon us. With it comes part four of the 'buy' and 'sell' series. You can find the first three parts here: Part I, Part II, Part III.

This week we'll cover the New York Islanders to the Seattle Kraken with perhaps another surprise selection or two. Again, I intentionally exclude superstars on good contracts and all entry level deals. There's no secrets in wanting to own any of those players.

This is all about value hunting. So lets dive in:

New York Islanders

BUY: Anthony Beauvillier (LW) $4.15M, 3 years

He is coming off a disappointing season with 28 points in 47 games. He did manage to salvage it somewhat with 13 in 19 playoff games. Yet expectations were much higher than what he delivered. His disappointing season would have been palatable at his new cap hit. At least he was cheaper while disappointing owners.

I expect Beauvillier to eclipse the 50-point plateau for the first time in his career and I would not be shocked if he teased the 55-60 range. There is solid upside here. His floor makes his cap hit manageable. Anything he delivers above the 45-point marker is pure value. Now, only if he could shoot the puck more for us multi-caters.

SELL: Anders Lee (LW) $7M, 5 years

At 31 years of age, Lee has only eclipsed the 60-point barrier once in his career. Yes he shoots over 2.5 shots per game. Yes he averages two hits per game, but at this price, I want a player that will deliver more points as well. His new teammate, Kyle Palmieri delivers almost as much offence for two million cheaper with similar peripherals.

You don't have to look far to find a cheaper version Lee to add to you roster. I want a bit of punch for this price tag. Max Pacioretty is a good example of a player I would happily pay $7M.

New York Rangers

BUY: Igor Shesterkin (G) $5.66M, 4 years

I drank the entire jug of Shesterkin Kool-Aid. I will be surprised if he is not a Vezina finalist at some point during this contract. You look at some of the $6M goalies around the league, Jordan Binnington, Jacob Markstrom, you won't find many, if any, owners willing to move Shesterkin straight across. He should provide top-10 goalie numbers in multi-cat leagues most years (I can't say every year, goalies are voodoo), with the potential to become a legitimate number one and enter the top goalie tier joining Connor Hellebuyck and Andre Vasilevskiy. All at a much lower cap hit.

There is a slim chance the odd owner is not sold on him at this price tag. I would kick every Shesterkin tire I can find to see if the window is open a crack to swoop. This will be an incredible value deal sooner rather than later.

SELL: Jacob Trouba (D) $8M, 5 years

Blame Adam Fox. It is that simple. That juggernaut stole any power play opportunity Trouba thought he had moving to the Rangers.

He is a fabulous multi-cat own. He puts up huge peripheral numbers. Unfortunately, moving to New York he has seen his offense dwindle. His offensive zone starts, and percentage of time spent on the power play, has not changed that much since moving to New York so clearly something else is amiss. It is possible he sees a bounce-back as a 40-point defenceman. Yet, at $8M per year, it is still a steep price to pay for 40-points from a defenceman. In points-only pools his contract makes Justin Faulk and Jared Spurgeon look more attractive.

Ottawa Senators

BUY: Drake Batherson (RW) $4.975M, 6 years

This contract, when signed, made me fall out of my chair. This is a value deal in year one. Batherson, assuming no injury or catastrophic sophomore slump should cruise past the 50-point marker in year one of the deal. With 70-point potential, this has the possibility of becoming one of the best value deals in the entire league in a couple years.

I like to compare his potential to Brock Boeser – two totally different style players, yet similar point production expectations. Yes, I am that hyped on Batherson. Add in over 200 shots and the potential for 200 hits per season and you have a serious homerun of a player. The Senators are only going to get better as a team. Batherson will be leading the charge along with Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk.

If you own him, hold on tight! If you don't, he's closing any opportunity you have of acquiring him at a reasonable cost and fast.

SELL: Matt Murray (G) $6.25M, 3 years

He just isn't worth more than Markstrom, Binnington or Shesterkin. All three are on better teams at lower cap hits. Not to mention, they are all arguably as good or better goalies. Unfortunately, as young players and young teams grow and improve the goalie takes the biggest fantasy hit in those years of growth. So here we are, with an expensive goalie on a young, inconsistent team.

Then there is Filip Gustavsson sitting in the wings, waiting for an opening to step in and steal his job. I won't be surprised in the least to see Gustafsson as the starting goalie in the final year of Murray's contract.

Philadelphia Flyers

BUY: Carter Hart (G) $3.979M, 3 years

I almost chose Travis Konecny. It was the upside potential of Hart along with his really bad season that slipped him into this spot. Owners can be a fickle bunch, often short sighted. The real opportunity to buy low was mid-summer while owners were still fuming over Hart blowing their season. Hopes are rising somewhat as we approach the start of 2021-22. His year was bad enough though, that the foul-tasting season still lingers in their mouths.

It's not a stretch to expect him to perform as well, or better than some of the more expensive goalies I've already listed above, Murray, Markstrom, Binnington. Put two million in your pocket with potential to out-perform all three – and push the top 10 goalie rankings – yes please.

SELL: Kevin Hayes (C) $7.1M, 5 years

I still wonder how he got paid as much as he did. He has never had a 50-point season. Seriously. He doesn't fill your peripheral categories and he is not a face-off guru. Perhaps there is some intangible that doesn't show up on the stat sheet that I am oblivious to. Regardless, it holds no fantasy value.

Pray for an early season hot streak and move him out. He simply lacks the production to justify this contract. Now or ever.

Pittsburgh Penguins

BUY: Danton Heinen (LW) $1.1M, 1 year

I was only able to find clips of Heinen in training camp with the Penguins this year but he seemed to be much closer to the player people expected him to be a couple years ago.

There is some legitimate upside with Heinen. If he can remain five on five with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin when they return this season he could push for the fifty-point plateau. He should see some early season first power play exposure with both Crosby and Malkin missing the start of the year.

Only Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel are top six locks. Jeff Carter, Jason Zucker and Kasperi Kapanen could all be pushed down if he performs well. This is a buy that needs to be monitored. As it could turn into a sell to obtain a more secure top-six asset. At this price point, he will be attractive to most everyone. Watch deployment when Malkin returns.

SELL: Jason Zucker (RW) $5.5M, 2 years

There will be no surprise here to see Zucker traded mid-season.  A team will be willing to take on his cap hit for assets. This will allow Pittsburgh to create cap-space and make another trade at the deadline.

Things just never worked out for Zucker. The downward spiral that began in Minnesota simply continued on in Pittsburgh. Any hot streak Zucker provides, it will be time to queue up your trade block.

San Jose Sharks

BUY: Tomas Hertl (C) $5.625M, 1 year

There is really limited 'buy' options on the Sharks. Hertl is as good as it gets. Over the last two years, when Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, Logan Couture and even Timo Meier watched their productivity decline, Hertl stood apart. He has remained a consistent force with 74 points three years ago, a 62-point pace in 2019-20 and 71-point pace last year.

Trade rumours are swirling around him all summer and to start the year. Rumours can negatively affect players, so small buyer beware flag. Regardless, he's the best buy option not on an entry level contract on the Sharks.

SELL: Logan Couture (C) $8M, 6 years

There's so much ink spilled on Burns and Karlsson and their contracts I saw no need beat that horse carcass any further. So that leaves Couture, averaging 61-points a year over the last two Covid shortened seasons. With a career high of 71-points he doesn't seem to have the required chops to give an owner real value on this deal – that's in points only pools.

In multi-cat pools, it gets worse. He is not a big volume shooter, doesn't really hit and has been sub-50% on face-offs for half a decade. One more anchor on a team seemingly filled with anchors.

Seattle Kraken

BUY: Jared McCann (C) $2.9M, 1 year

McCann brings the most upside on this roster, at least in the short term based on salaries. McCann found himself on a 58-point pace with Pittsburgh last year filling in for an injured Malkin down the stretch.  This year, he finds himself sitting on the Kraken's top line and first power play unit.

It's hard to predict anything beyond a repeat of that 58-point pace. If he approaches that on a first year expansion team, I would define that as a really good season. Then consider 58-points is 20 points per million in salary and he gives your line up solid production value.

SELL: Alex Wennberg (C) $4.5M, 3 years

I know some folks believe Wennberg will have a strong year in Seattle. I hope he does. That will help drive up his trade value. There are certain indicators with players that steer me away from ever owning them. Averaging 1.3 shots on goal per game over the last six seasons – and never above 1.5 per game – is a massive red flag. If you don't shoot, you can't score.

Anyone that wants to point to his 17-goals last year with Florida, I'll point to his 20.7 shooting percentage compared to his 9.7 career shooting percentage. Wennberg is not a goal scorer. Regression is coming in a big way on that front. You add in an individual point percentage (IPP) OF 74.4 percent, more than 30 percent higher than his any of his previous three seasons, and puck-luck becomes more of a concern.

At $4.5M it is not an egregious salary. If he starts strong, I would gladly move him for a player that provides more stable and predictable offensive output. Those shot totals scare the bejesus out of me.

Join me next week for the final part of the 'buy and sell' series. Thanks for reading.

(all stats pulled from frozentools.com & all salary cap information from capfriendly.com)

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