Like a volcano erupting the fantasy landscape for defencemen dramatically altered in a matter of three months. This offseason was met with collective sighs, ooh's and ah's as defenceman after defenceman signed for higher than expected values.

Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty still stand alone, as outliers on the defencemen salary cap landscape making $11.5M and $10.5M respectively. They were the two truly elite players of the position when they signed those deals and you could argue Doughty still is. PK Subban felt like another outlier when he signed his $9M contract with Montreal way back in 2014-15. At the time, he was a Norris winner and one of the best offensive defencemen in the game. Seven years later his contract is still the fourth highest in the NHL among defencemen.

None of these contracts truly set off a trend.

Then Roman Josi signed in 2020-21 for $9.059M, followed by Alex Pietrangelo at $8.8M. Two of the best all around defencemen in the NHL. At this point we all knew money was going to be spent on defencemen, we just never thought it would be this much.

There was a warning shot days before Seth Jones was traded to Chicago, Jamie Oleksiak was signed by the Seattle Kraken for four years $4.6M, AAV (Average Annual Value) in the expansion draft, three times the amount predicted by Alex McLean back in February. 

Two days later, Seth Jones was traded and signed his monstrous eight year, $9.5M deal with Chicago. Columbus quickly signed Zack Werenski to an almost identical contract, eight years, $9.583M, which felt a bit like a knee jerk reaction from Jarmo Kekalainen in fear of losing another big name to free agency too soon. 

Perhaps we thought these were outliers, Oleksiak due to Kraken wanting to make a defensive splash, Jones due Chicago's desire to make one more run with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, and Werenski signed in fear.

Then Dougie Hamilton signed for a million more than expected at $9M, Cale Makar, cashed in on early success and huge potential for $9M. Then Darnell Nurse said, 'why not me?' and Charlie McAvoy said, 'Me too.' And they both signed for over $9M.

In one summer the NHL went from four defenceman with a $9M AAV to nine (McAvoy, Werenski, Jones, Nurse don't kick in until 2022-23).

We haven't even mentioned Quinn Hughes ($7.75M) or Miro Heiskanen ($8.45M) because these deals washed them away.  

The financial landscape has shifted dramatically with high priced defencemen that we need to re-evaluate how we evaluate defencemen.

At the beginning of 2020-21, you could avoid owning an eight million dollar defenceman and not blink an eye. Now with more than a dozen set to make over $8M per year in 2022-23, with Morgan Rielly and Adam Fox about to add their names to the list it, how we evaluate defenceman values is changing.

If Fox repeats anything close to his Norris season we may very well see a third defenceman earning eight figures. There is a chance he gets $10M per on an eight year deal.

So, let's try to make sense of things a little bit:

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to hold Makar right near the top of the list, if not still at the top even with his $9M salary. There is a unique offensive ability to his game we haven't seen since Karlsson teased point-per-game seasons, and he is doing it younger.

Adam Fox on an entry level deal is a god-send to owners. That all changes next year. If Werenski and Jones can garner $9.5M, what does the reigning Norris trophy winner haul in if he puts up a 65-point encore?  I think we're about to witness our third $10M-plus  NHL defenseman. His value will slide down the list as a result.

Nurse is your multi-cat stud. No question about it. Perhaps he slides into second, behind Makar for players making over $8M per year. We lose Shea Weber and gain a Darnell Nurse, yeah, he puts up those level of peripherals, in case you haven't noticed.

Or, if you prefer the shot volume and 65-point potential of Hamilton. Those are your easy targets. Then it gets muddier.

Jones has teased with 57-point season and Werenski stormed into the league with a 47-point rookie campaign. They shared the spotlight and powerplay in Columbus seemingly limiting each others production. That was one argument anyway. Now they quarterback their own powerplays and we wait to see which, if either can justify owning at $9.5M. Jones has the bonus in multi-cat leagues of pushing 150 hits and 150 blocks per year, where Werenski will leave you flapping in the wind.

I'm going to hope they both have 60-point potential to be encouraged to own either.

McAvoy fits here, making this a trio conversation. He offers similar peripherals as Jones but his shot totals leave him lagging behind so significantly he scares me off completely. It is rare to find a defenceman that can produce 50-points in a season while averaging under 1.5 shots per game. Jake Gardiner of the Maple Leafs was the last to accomplish this feat. Unless McAvoy can take an extra shot every three games he sits seemingly with a glass ceiling for points.  Even in a points-only pool I need my offensive defenceman to shoot the puck. A lot of their assists comes off tips and rebounds. 

And now we need to re-evaluate the value of Roman Josi and to a lesser extent John Carlsson. A year ago, Josi and his eight year $9.05M contract made owners shudder ever so slightly. How do I justify $9M on a 60-point defenceman? We thought. Now, we're nestling him into the mix above and should prefer him over just about all but Cale Makar.

Carlsson and Victor Hedman also slide up the value list as a result of lesser players getting paid significantly more than the market suggested. As two of the elite at their position they sat near the top to begin with even with high end salaries. No brainers I know, but it needs to be said.

Three names we haven't discussed yet are Q. Hughes ($7.75M), Thomas Chabot ($8M) and Heiskanen ($8.4M). Each of them, at one point or another have displayed an elite ceiling, great rookie season, leading a Stanley Cup Finals run. Obviously, the hope is they will provide that level of play game to game down the line. There are growing pains with this line of thinking and planning. They are young, more prone to slumps and unpredictability from year to year. Each are locked in for several years, there is cost certainty at least. Owning any of these players is going to require some patience as they develop into that next tier of defenceman and provide you with consistent production we all know they have the ability to deliver.

There's no better example of growing pains versus potential than Rasmus Dahlin. Who would have thought he would be an add on to this conversation versus the spotlight of it, three years ago? Playing on a horrible team, in turmoil, has not helped his growth either. It can be hard to remember he is still only 21 years of age. He signed a three year bridge deal with a $6M AAV. A good deal for both team and player. Compared to the above nine million dollar deals, this has the potential to really pay off in year three.   

In shifting the landscape, top pair defencemen are now getting paid similar to top line forwards. The faster you acclimatize to this realization the better the advantage you will have in your pool. Even a few months advantage provides extra time to navigate new values.

We all dream of holding a stable of Shea Theodore, Jacob Chychrun, Tyson Barrie, and MacKenzie Weegar, rolling out value deal after value deal on the blue line.  The reality is this doesn't happen to most of us, especially as the size of your league increases. Often we own one, perhaps two of these value contracts, and piece together the rest.

The trick is to budget so you can comfortably roster a big salary defenseman. The real opportunity arises when you have a GM who focuses too much on the bargain player approach and avoids defensemen with high AAV's or salary.

 Writing this feels a bit like a maiden voyage through an Ikea store. Nothing really makes sense. You come in for one thing and are forced to meander through 20 000 square feet of store. Upon second or third visit you begin to recognize the maze for what it is and notice the shortcuts that allows you to expedite your trip. Perhaps along the way you'll see something you liked in the past but was too expensive but now that same price tag feels more palatable.

This is where part two of this article comes in. Next week, we'll review some of the less talked about, formerly overpriced defencemen and weave them into the new, evolving landscape of defence contracts.

(all salary cap info used from capfriendly.com)

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