With the season just shy of one-tenth of the way complete, it seems pretty certain we can write off Toronto, Boston, Vegas, and Colorado as busts this season. Too soon? Okay, too soon. While it is surprising those teams would NOT be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and it is equally surprising that Buffalo, Detroit, and San Jose WOULD be in the playoffs, it is important to remember that in a small sample size of seven or eight games almost anything can happen. That concept not only applies to team wins and losses, but to fantasy as well. Is Auston Matthews going to keep his 11-goal pace for the season? Is Brandon Tanev going to keep his 60-goal pace? I think we all know the answers to those questions.
Sometimes it just takes a little patience. For daily fantasy, perhaps if the public is overreacting to a slow or hot start by a player we can use that to our advantage. People may be getting burned and fed up playing Matthews with his hefty price tag and poor results thus far, but we know over an 82 game season Matthews is going to produce. Sometimes in DFS you have to adopt the mentality of a baseball pitcher and have a short memory. Maybe the last batter, or the previous day in fantasy didn't go well for you, but there's another batter and another day on deck. And just because Matthews didn't come through for you yesterday, doesn't mean he's any less likely to come through today.
With all that said, Matthews is on the slate tonight so you probably know where this is headed. He and the rest of the Leafs headline an eight-game slate, so let's take a look at some places to target. All prices are from DraftKings but plays can be applied to any site.
Toronto – As I mentioned in the open, here we are. No doubt Toronto is struggling right now with losses in four of their last five. They also really burned me last week getting absolutely blown out of the rink by a Penguins team playing with half of an AHL squad. BUT, short memory remember? I am going back to the well until Matthews ($8,400) puts up a 30 burger DraftKings score or I'm broke, whichever comes first. Sure, Matthews has only scored once in five games played but he is still averaging 21.5 minutes of ice time and 4.4 shots per game and we know it's only a matter of time until pucks start going in. At home against Detroit is about as good of a spot as you could hope for. The Leafs shifted the lines around last game and being they won I'd expect them to stick with it. W