Saturday’s Game Picks: Maple Leafs Out for Revenge Against Penguins

Flip Livingstone

2021-11-20

Bang bang, baby! Last week's Gold-Silver-Bronze sweep and a perfect 3-0 showing for my side bets has me even more fired up than usual for our favorite day of the week. Not to pump my own tires too much, but I am cooking right now when it comes to picking winners, posting a 20-6-1 overall record since last Friday.

On to today where there should be 13 games for us to choose from, but due to the COVID outbreak the Ottawa Senators are dealing with, their matchup against the New York Rangers has been postponed, so 12 tilts will have to do.

Let's keep this streak running with another big day. Good luck.

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2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 4-1
Silver: 1-4
Bronze: 3-2

Side bets: 10-5

Total Saturday Record: 18-12

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Gold Pick
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

I was in the building Tuesday night to watch the Leafs first-hand dominate a solid Nashville Predators squad to the tune of a 3-0 shutout. I really don't want to get ahead of myself here and there is A LOT of this season left to go, but this iteration of Toronto hockey is starting to really look like something to get excited about. Yes, I am a big Leafs fan and we know nothing matters with this franchise until a first-round series ends in a different result, but man, these are not your granddaddy's Maple Leafs.

Jack Campbell is absolutely feeling it right now. The hottest goaltender in the league and an early Vezina candidate. He looks cerebral out there right now and nothing seems to rattle him at any point in any game, even when Toronto is behind. While props need to be handed out to the Buds' blue-line corps who have also been sensational during both special teams and five-on-five situations, but Campbell has been the rock this team has needed for the better part of two decades.

Like I said above, lots of this season left, and who knows how the rest of it plays out in terms of Campbell and his consistency. But right now there is no one better, and that is excellent news for a team that also employs two of the most dangerous offensive lines in Toronto's top-six unit of killers. A team that has over the past few seasons built the dubious rep of scoring with the best of them but folding like a cheap exam-hall chair when faced with any adversity now also plays defense and kills penalties? That's bad news for teams in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto will be out to eradicate the memory of an absolutely embarrassing performance against Pittsburgh a few weeks ago when they got pumped 7-1. This is a different Leafs team, one that I expect to bounce back in a very big way against the Penguins.

Silver Pick
Nashville Predators @ Montreal Canadiens (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Under

Every week to start my research I do a quick scan of the games first looking at the totals. Usually one jumps off the page as a matchup I immediately can feel the direction of the game going in terms of final score. This is one of those cases.

I am keeping this one really simple for y'all: this will be a low-scoring game. Bet the Under and thank me later. OK, let me actually explain myself a bit. Not only do both teams sit in the bottom-third of the league in goals scored, both also lack any legitimate superstar-caliber scoring threats. And straight up, Nashville is always a tough team to play against when it comes to trying to put pucks in the net. A franchise that prides itself on icing defensive-savvy players up-and-down the lineup and one that currently sits tied for seventh-least goals allowed this season.

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This is seriously awful news for a Montreal group that has really struggled to find any consistency as it pertains to the offensive end of the ice. I hope you are picking up what I am putting down here, but if not, here's one more point you should know before sprinkling a wager on this Under. Across the last nine games between the Preds and Habs, eight of those have stayed Under the number. That happens again tonight in Montreal. Lock it in for my Silver Pick of the week.

Bronze Pick
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: Knights

The Blue Jackets just seem to be one of those teams that I am just not buying into. One of those squads that seems to be very average (or worse) at basically every position besides goaltender.

Not a whole lot about this group gets me excited, and that's why you will regularly see me placing wagers against them. While I am fully aware the Jackets have been decent of late while posting a 6-4-0 record over their last 10, their last two wins came against Arizona and Detroit, so don't start believing just yet. Another point to back up this Blue Jackets bashing is Columbus is downright bad on the road, posting only three wins over its last 15 games away from home.

On the other hand, we have one of the most consistent home teams in the league over the past handful of seasons in the Golden Knights, who own a 5-1 home record over their last six games. A key factor playing into my support of the Knights in this spot is the man in the blue paint for Vegas, Robin Lehner. Let's just say Lehner loves facing Columbus, as his 7-3-0 lifetime record, .945 save percentage, and 1.96 goals-against average over 10 games would indicate. That .945 number? That is Lehner's highest against any team in his career.

The Jackets have only one player with more than five goals and none currently in double digits. Add in the Lehner factor and this is shaping up to be a tough night on the strip for a bad road team with little firepower. Let's ride with the Knights at home for another Bronze pick winner. Book it.

Side Bets

Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers – Pick: Flyers

St. Louis Blues @ Dallas Stars – Pick: Blues

Chicago Blackhawks @ Edmonton Oilers – Pick: Oilers (-1.5)

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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