Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday break and having a wonderful Christmas with family and friends. As seems to be tradition here every year, let's zip through some ‘more abstract’ reports at Frozen Tools and comment on some of them.

Most Consistent Player: Nathan MacKinnon – with points in 16 of 17 games, he has hit the scoresheet in 94.12% of his games.

The rest: Aleksander Barkov (87.5%), Jake Guentzel (83.33%), Connor McDavid (82.76%), Brad Marchand (80.95%), Alex Ovechkin (80.65%), Max Pacioretty (80.00%).

Surprise names in the Top 30: Nazem Kadri (79.17%), Devon Toews (75.00% – actually ahead of Cale Makar!), Valeri Nichushkin (72.22%). (dec25)

2. Top IPP at Even Strength: I like looking at this because it tells me which players are over-performing based on the line they are on. It indicates that, if the coach so desired, a move to a higher line would pay off for both player and fantasy owner.

Artturi Lehkonen – 100%. After 31 games, Lehkonen’s line has scored 11 times. He was in on all 11 with either the goal or one of the assists. He is the only player in the league to play more than 25 games and have a 100% IPP. Most of the other players at 100% (there are 16 of them) are fourth liners with no potential for moving up the lineup. A plugger with three points, such as Trent Frederic, was in on all three of his line’s goals. That doesn’t mean he deserves a look on a scoring line. But besides Lehkonen, the other names of interest at 100% are: Logan Brown (six points in 10 games – in on all six goals that his line scored), Klim Kostin (five points in 18 games), and Carl Grundstrom (eight points in 23 games).

Other notables: Alex Formenton (90.9%), Jordan Kyrou (89.3%), Jack Hughes (88.9%), Max Domi (88.2%), Andrew Mangiapane (87%). (dec25)

3. Top IPP on the Power Play: I look at this stat as an opportunity for more PP time. If we see this, then you know the coach will. Usually he will adjust the units to give more PP time to the player that is performing. Sometimes he doesn’t (as you’ve seen over the years with players such as Jakub Vrana in Washington). It happens. But at least this stat tells you who may be deserving.

Jordan Kyrou leads the league with 100% PPIPP in 27 games. He has eight PPPts despite being stuck on the second unit (i.e. just 38% of St. Louis’ available PP time).

Other notables: Mangiapane plays just 46.4% of Calgary’s PP time, but has been in on all six points the Flames scored on the PP with him out there. You can already see his PP time tweak upwards in the second quarter… Filip Zadina sees 44.5% of Detroit’s PP time, but he was in on all four PP goals that the Wings scored with him out there. (dec25)

4. Secondary Assists: If this number seems inflated for a player, I will look deeper and see what he does career-wise. If  you go to any player’s Frozen Tools profile, the Advanced Stats tab will tell you his secondary assist % for each year. I then use that ‘usual’ number to guess at where he ‘should’ be right now and how many points he has more than he ‘should’ have. It hints at where his numbers slip to in the second half.

Tops in this category is Connor McDavid. But I’m not too concerned. It’s McDavid. Second is Adam Fox. But again, as a top-scoring defenseman his secondary assists will be high. In fact, this year he is at 53.8% and last year it was 54.8%. Sustainable.

But third in the league is Chandler Stephenson. He has 13 secondary assists for a 59.1% rate (nine primary assists). Over the last two seasons, his Sec Assist % was 39%. The difference there is about four or five ‘extra’ assists so far this year. So instead of 31 points in 31 games right now, he would normally have 27. His 5on5 S% of 11.4 also indicates some puck luck, so the two stats back each other up.

Other players of concern: Pavel Buchnevich (61.1%), Anze Kopitar (61.1%), Shayne Gostisbehere (71.4%), Joonas Donskoi (71.4%). (dec25)

5. One last stat, and again this goes in the category of “interesting” as opposed to “helpful”. I looked at the Three Stars report:

Sebastian Aho leads the league with seven first-star wins. No other player has six.

Two players have been given the third star on four different occasions without ever winning a first or second star: Eeli Tolvanen and Ben Chiarot.

Brandon Hagel also got the third star four times, but he also got second star once.

David Pastrnak won the second star of the game six times and third star once. He has not won first star yet.

Kevin Fiala and Tomas Hertl have earned the first star of the games the most times in the league this season without ever being named the second or third star. Three times they were first star. (dec25)

6. So, Frozen Tools is starting to put out awesome new tools that focus on DFS – just in time to not have any games! But FWIW, here is a page you can go to and filter out players based on your needs as you fill your DraftKings or FanDuel roster. We are also working on a roster optimizer, which is very awesome – running simulations of 3000 potential rosters before spitting out three optimal ones: 1) based on hot/cold players, 2) based on weighted average and 3) based on DraftKings default. We are running it in test leagues for now…but of course there are no leagues! So we’re a bit stuck, otherwise you’d see this right now. But stay tuned for that.

As for Goalie Post, the new site and app are now ready for testing … and we have no games right now to test! So we’ll be testing in the week ahead and then hopefully launch it after that, provided there are no hitches. (dec25)

7. Here are some DobberProspects articles to prep your WJC for Boxing Day:

World Junior Championship Previews: Group A | Group B
WJC Players to Watch: Group A | Group B

I’ll touch on three prospects that may still be under the radar enough that you can get them cheaper in dynasties, or that they may be available to add in keeper leagues. Below is Topi Niemela; follow the link for Martin Chromiak and Logan Stankoven.

Niemela (D): The third-round pick by the Leafs in 2020 has done everything in his power to outperform his draft slot ever since he was selected. He has dominated in Finland, while putting up some excellent numbers at the international tournaments over the last few years as well. Despite being on the smaller side, he knows how to handle the puck, and eventually that should pay big dividends for a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs who have a plethora of scoring forwards. Not having crossed the pond yet means that Niemela is relatively under-heralded in fantasy circles to this point, but that won’t last long, especially if he performs as expected in the upcoming WJC games. (dec22)

8. Every year around this time, in the spirit of the holiday, I post my fantasy wish list. As a fantasy owner, I’m a greedy person. I want to see the players I’m invested in do well, and do better. So, in that spirit, every year, I try to manifest things I want to see in the fantasy game. Will most of these help my fantasy roster? Absolutely. But it’s my wish list, so here we go. (Stats from Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick)

Point-Kucherov: I like to play NHL best balls. For those unfamiliar, they are leagues where you draft your roster, and that’s it. A certain number of players – say, two centers, three wingers, two defencemen, and one goalie – apply to your final score and that’s it. No trades, no waivers. It is good draft prep and it’s fun to try different strategies.

In best balls, stacking linemates is a good idea, and I did that a lot. One particular duo I had a lot of was Bennett-Huberdeau in Florida. Seeing as it’s Christmas and Sam Bennett has five assists, that’s not going super well. Another duo I invested in heavily was Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. They have combined for 19 games played, so, no, that’s not going well either.

My wish here is simply for Tampa to get healthy. Kudos to the coaches and players for staying afloat through these severe injuries, it has been a great run. But I need my top fantasy options back in the lineup, and in the lineup consistently, if possible. Seeing them on the ice for practice on Boxing Day or something? I could not imagine a better present. (dec24)

9. Top-Line Joel Farabee Minutes: This has already started to happen as Farabee has been skating with Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny on the top line. Good! That’s a start, but we need to see more.

The reason for this is that Farabee just might be the team’s best goal scorer now. With James van Riemsdyk not the player he was in recent seasons, Konecny struggling, and some injuries, it’s either Farabee or Cam Atkinson. I am willing to concede Atkinson probably has the edge, but that Farabee should even be considered in that company speaks to how far he’s come in a few years.

I don’t think I’m overreaching here, either. Over the last three years, Farabee sits at 1.1 goals per 60 minutes at all strengths. In that span, league-wide, he’s inside the 75^th percentile in goal rate, which means a first-line rate. His goal rate is also tied with Matthew Tkachuk and Conor Garland, exceeding Timo Meier and Brock Boeser. He is shooting 15% in that span, and that’s not egregious by any means.

Here we have a 21-year-old winger in his third season that has scored at a 15% clip for his career. He could be seeing some more ice time, I just wish it were to stay. We’ll see. (dec24)

10. Robert Thomas needs to go John McClane: It has been awesome to see Thomas break out. He is a guy I have been high on for a while and sometimes it’s nice to rewarded for the faith. He has 22 points in 24 games on the year, on pace for over 70 points. He is skating north of 19 minutes a night, a jump of nearly six minutes from last season. His full breakout is here and a sight to behold.

Of course, there is another level here, and the shot rate is the focal point. He is shooting less per minute than anyone on the team not named Bozak (not great) and league-wide, he’s in the fifth percentile of shooters. Even skating 19 minutes a night cannot save that low shot rate, as he’s still just with 1.6 shots per game. While he’s probably been shorted a couple goals, even shooting 15% at 1.5 shots per game for a full season is fewer than 20 goals. Unless there’s a climb in his shot rate per minute, for now, he's a Ryan Johansen-circa-2018-type, with 15 goals and 50 assists a season. That will certainly play for fantasy, but there is obviously more that he can give.

For my fifth wish this Christmas, I want to see Robert Thomas landing at least two shots per game, starting as soon as the 2022-23 regular season. (For a couple other wishes, follow the link) (dec24)

11. Only a handful of players have a higher controlled zone entry rate this season than Carter Verhaege, and they’re guys you’d expect; the Gaudreau-Point-Ehlers tier. By the same token, only a handful of players have also seen more scoring chances generated off his zone entries, and they’re guys you’d expect; the McDavid-Marner-MacKinnon tier. To put it in simpler terms: his zone entries, and subsequent scoring chance rates, have been among the elite in the NHL this year.

It’s at this point where we ask if this is just a blip or perhaps something more. I am leaning towards the latter. The reason for this is by the same metric last year – zone entries with control per 60 minutes and chances off those entries – Verhaege was similarly excellent, clumped in a tier with Nathan MacKinnon, Artemi Panarin, Kevin Fiala, and Taylor Hall. Over the previous two seasons, he was inside the 80^th percentile of both shot assists (passes leading to shots) and controlled zone entries per 60 minutes. That, for the next two years, the Panthers would continue to generate a lot of scoring chances and he would continue to be excellent in transition seems to just be a natural progression of a supremely talented player.

He has 25 goals and 58 points over his last 71 games, averaging over two shots per game and being on pace to crack 50 hits. He is a valuable fantasy asset no matter what. The key here is him eventually getting top power-play minutes. I genuinely believe he can be a point-per-game player with that top billing, he is that good. It is just a matter of him eventually being given that role, which the team doesn’t seem overly keen on. (dec23)

12. As for Sam Bennett, the only Florida forward generating more zone entries with control is Verhaege, which means that Bennett is doing more heavy lifting than either Aleksander Barkov or Jonathan Huberdeau on a per-minute basis. Of course, he was inside the 85^th percentile on zone entries on a percentage basis in his last two years in Calgary, so this isn’t really new for him. What is new is getting consistently great linemates, and that’s probably why he’s on pace for 30 goals. The assists haven’t come yet, but we’re getting to that.

Florida isn’t generating a lot of scoring chances off Bennett’s entries, as he’s much closer to the aforementioned Devils tier than up with the Marners and Fialas of the world. That could be an issue for his assist totals, as they need to generate scoring chances that are coming off more than just his stick for him to rack assists. He needs his linemates to shoot more, in all likelihood, as it seems he’s the triggerman on his own zone entries.

Regardless, it’s good to see him still playing well and while he won’t be a point-per-game player, once those assists rebound, he’s a guy that can score 30 goals and 60 points with 250 shots and 150 hits. Those are monster fantasy numbers. (dec23)

13. Along the same lines as the above, Trevor Zegras has been really good this year. Now, this could be a chicken-and-egg argument of “is he good because his small-sample of zone entries is strong, or is he good at zone entries and generating chances and that’s why he’s good?”

The thing is, there’s no one else anywhere close to him from his team in his zone entry/scoring chance abilities, at least so far not this year. So this isn’t just a team philosophy thing. That tells me this is more on the player, so I’m inclined to believe it’s just a skill he has and that’s why he’s been great at it, rather than this being a small-sample issue.

Of course, there’s always the caveat of “it’s been 30 games and he’s a rookie” but he was solid in this regard last year, and do think he’s just a really good young player. (dec23)

14. Alex Tuch is finally healthy again. The 25-year-old is going to be playing for his hometown team, and should be given all the minutes he can handle. He has some high upside, and may be one of the cheapest 75-point-upside players you can acquire at this point in time. There’s some additional multi-cat ability there too with the shot and hit volume. (dec22)

15. BTW, the date for the Midseason Guide is now set – and it will be January 14. This Guide comes with your Ultimate Fantasy Pack or Gold/Platinum subscriptions. It does not come with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack nor the Silver subs. You can pre-order it here. (dec22)

16. I’m going to link this excellent article over on GoaliePost once more as it should be hugely relevant over the next few weeks. It’s worth the read. Check it out here. (dec22)

17. Mikhail Sergachev is one of the more interesting players in the NHL. He had a breakout season at the age of 19, posting 40 points in 79 games. Since then, he has 109 points in 228 games. In other words, his production effectively peaked at the age of 19. It isn’t really his fault, though. He’s earning the same level of ice time this year as last year, and as long as Victor Hedman is around, he’ll earn the top PP minutes instead of the young Russian. Add in some injuries that have lowered the offensive ceiling of this team, and we get Sergachev’s season to date.

Sergachev has one of the highest percentages in the league at 93.1%. That means when he does have the puck and decides to exit the zone, it’s almost always with possession. That number is up from last year, but he’s also 23 years old. He is still improving. We’ll check back at the end of the season to see if it held up.

There are a lot of positive signs for Sergachev being an elite producer at some point, but it’s not going to happen until he gets that power-play role. It is nice to see him still improving, though, and maybe he can break through in the next couple years. (dec21)

18. There have been some rumours floating around Oilers Twitter that Oscar Klefbom could return to the lineup before the end of the season. Normally, Twitter rumours don’t make their way into my Ramblings, but the Klefbom situation is interesting to me because we’ve heard nothing from him or the team since the start of the year. With Ben Bishop, he had a retirement press conference the next day. In Shea Weber‘s case, it appears he started working with the team almost immediately. Klefbom, whose career is in jeopardy, has been radio silent for months. (I should say, I haven’t been able to find anything on him since the start of the season. If there’s been an interview on local radio I missed or something along those lines, please post it in the comments.)

Maybe he is working towards a return and they don’t want any pressure on him? Or maybe he just wants to be left alone. Just keep an eye for information on this, either confirming or denying, in the next few weeks. It would be awesome to see him back in the NHL again. (dec21)

19. Ivan Barbashev has arrived. And the key has been playing on an all-Russian line with a couple of star players in Vladimir Tarasenko and Pavel Buchnevich. Barbashev picked up his third consecutive two-point game last week and he now has 15 points in his last 12 games. He has 11-14-25 on the season and if he gets a two-point game next time out – he’ll set a career high with 27.

So yeah, this is quite a jump. He just turned 26 last week and is entering his prime, and his numbers playing junior hockey and AHL hockey indicate he actually has good upside, so these fantasy-worthy numbers are certainly believable. I don’t know if Robert Thomas gets his spot back on that line – I have to think that the magic with these Russians is allowed to continue. (dec20)

20. Dylan Larkin has now pushed himself above the point-per-game mark (29 PTS in 27 GP). He’s also scored goals in three consecutive games. This goal streak matched the date that Tyler Bertuzzi returned to the lineup from COVID protocol.

I’ve mentioned this in the past, but Larkin’s production is tied in a significant way to Bertuzzi’s presence on his line. With Bertuzzi out of the lineup for most of last season, Larkin struggled to what was barely over a 40-point pace (23 PTS in 44 GP).

Bertuzzi himself is close to a point per game (21 PTS in 23 GP), although his game log shows a lot of feast-or-famine results. Those include two four-point games and a three-point game. The Red Wings next cross the border after the Olympic break (February 26), so you should have no issues keeping the unvaxxed Bertuzzi in your lineup until then. (dec19)

21. At age 37, Joe Pavelski continues to deliver, as he centers one of the league's most productive even-strength lines alongside Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. With 27 points in 29 games, Pavelski is producing at a similar pace to last season, throwing cold water on the idea that last season was a fluke. As well, his advanced stats only show possible mild regression, as his 19.4 SH% isn’t that far out of range to his shooting percentage in recent seasons.

For more top even-strength lines of the season, see Frozen Tools. (dec19)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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