Saturday’s Game Picks: Bet the Over on Giordano Return

Vlad Zorila

2022-02-19

Now that Valentine's Day, the one day of the year where I feel even lonelier than I usually do, is behind us, there's nothing but excitement left. This excitement grows bigger and bigger as we approach what should be known as the true day of love, the trade deadline. This year's swap season should garner effervescence around the whole league mixed with some sweet overvaluation of players.

As the elite club ranks steady atop the board, I'm most excited to see how the teams in that second tier, let's name it the rugged rivals tier (just because it sounds cool), plan on ruining their future like a teenager choosing to pursue sociology. I'm just kidding, take it from a Habs fan, anything can happen in the playoffs, so who knows? Maybe acquiring Ben Chiarot for Vitali Kravtsov, Nils Lundkvist, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil, the Empire State Building and five first-rounders may in fact get the Rangers to the promised land.

That being said, the moves that are about to take place within the next few weeks will certainly make my Saturday picks all the more interesting to make. Calgary already started strong by acquiring the marvelous Tyler Toffoli (whom I will dearly miss), so let's not waste any more time and…

Gold Pick

Seattle Kraken @ Calgary Flames (Over/under 6) – Pick: Over

Of the seven games the Flames have played in February, none has concluded with less than six tallies. Calgary themselves have scored at least four times in all these contests. Considering they've all gone in their favor, I was tempted to predict a Flames win here, but I went with the over/under, because these days it seems like pretty much any of their forwards can have a big night on any given night. From the usual suspects like Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan or Matthew Tkachuk to the depth revelations like Dillon Dube, Andrew Mangiapane or Adam Ruzicka, make your pick. Chances are many of these guys are going to find the back of the net on many occasions.

Unlike last year, it looks like Calgary can finally count on some blue-line support, which is definitely surprising considering Mark Giordano's departure over the summer (he makes his return to Calgary tonight). With Noah Hanifin's resurgence as well as breakout years for Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington, they are on pace to have three defenders who could break the 40-point mark. While I expect Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson to eventually slow down, it doesn't look like it will be anytime soon.

On the other end, Seattle is also going through a goal-filled streak of their own, having concluded their last four games with seven or more tallies from both teams. Their poor record can easily overshadow the fact that they have scoring talent across their lineup with names like Yanni Gourde, Alex Wennberg or Calle "boy boy" Jarnkrok. Nickname courtesy of Marshawn Lynch.

Silver Pick

St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

Raise your hand if you've had eight multi-point games in your last ten. I just know that somewhere in Justin Bieber's basement Auston Matthews just raised his. At this point of the campaign, he has got to be my favorite for the Hart trophy. Not to take away from his teammates, I strongly believe that him and Igor Shesterkin are the players with the greatest impact on their team's placement in the standings. He is on pace for a 60-goal season and I would not put it past him to reach the 70-goal mark, a feat that hasn't been accomplished since 1993.

Speaking of those valuable teammates, many of them are bound to get career-best seasons by the end of the year. From William Nylander who's about to get his first point-per-game campaign, to the 25-year-old Michael Bunting and even newcomer David Kampf. The two latter names make Kyle Dubas look great right now, as it seems that AHL benchwarmer Nick Ritchie is last summer's sole misstep.

I would usually discuss why I expect the Blues to have a rough night in this last paragraph, but that's not really a reason for this pick. I just really believe in the Leafs right now, so I'll just go on talking about them.  Here's a few fun facts that should reinforce your belief in the bet: they haven't lost a game at home in 2022, Jack Campbell is looking to end a strong week in similar fashion after allowing one and two goals respectively in the games he played, Jason Spezza is still one of the best fourth-liners in the league and Mitch Marner is also really very good.

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Bronze Pick

Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Canucks

The all-star break makes or breaks a team, showing us who is for real and who falls off the wheel (it doesn't have to make sense if it rhymes). Well, it certainly broke the Ducks, who are hoping to get out of a four-game losing streak. Now, I know what most of you are probably thinking: "Vlad, picking the Canucks may be a worse idea than picking the Coyotes two weeks ago". And I would usually agree. Vancouver has been more unpredictable this year than my uncle when he shares sketchy articles on Facebook. But three of Anaheim's four losses came against Detroit, Seattle and Edmonton. Not quite the creme de la creme.

Troy Terry hasn't scored in five games. Trevor Zegras consistently goes scoreless every other game these days. Even John Gibson has put up save percentages below .855 in his last three games. While things could shift around against the Canucks, I believe there's still a way to go before the balanced is fully restored, as this young and inexperienced squad has overachieved early this season.

Unlike my silver pick where I only focused on the positives, I am very tempted to remain on the negatives here as Vancouver can make me regret a lot of things quickly. Still, I'll bite. It looks like Elias Pettersson is out of his slump as he's posted 12 points in the last 13 games. The same could potentially be said about Oliver Ekman-Larsson who's had seven in his last five. Thatcher Demko has been a steady force between the pipes all year long. The Canucks have only lost three games in regulation against divisional opponents this season. There, that's as much as I can do.

Side Bets

Los Angeles Kings @ Arizona Coyotes – Pick: Kings (-1.5)

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators (Over/under 5.5) – Pick: Under

Edmonton Oilers @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Oilers

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