Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Francis)

I'm fairly new to a 10 team, 16 keeper, daily changes, points only league with goalie scoring of two points each for a W and for a SO. Active rosters consist of 27 players, starting 4C, 6W, 4D, 2G, plus 11 bench spots; so every season we draft 11. My plan was not to emphasize winning right away and instead try to build a team that might take a bit of time to be dominant but also thrive for longer. The wrinkle is next season we're expanding to include two new teams, reducing the number of keepers to 15. Here is my roster.  As you can see, I have 17 choices for 15 spots – which two would you take out?

C: Trevor Zegras, Marco Rossi, Tim Stutzle, Kirby Dach, Josh Norris
W: Lucas Raymond, Brady Tkachuk, Kaapo Kakko, Jesse Puljujarvi, William Eklund, Alexis Lafrenière
D: Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Thomas Chabot
G: Ilya Sorokin, Thatcher Demko, Spencer Knight

Is trading an option? If so, that could be a path to take. You have more than enough very strong young players to afford to do so. The problem is if you trade for draft picks, those would have low value, what with, after your league's expansion, 180 players being kept. So you'd probably need to do a two for one trade, which can be helpful but also difficult to craft.

If you do go the trade route, one player I'd consider including is Brady Tkachuk, as he has huge name value but in a points only format isn't as valuable. Since 1990-91 Tkachuk is the only player who, in each of his first three seasons by age 21, averaged 3+ SOG but less than 0.7 points per game. The only others who did so twice were Gabriel Landeskog and Jeff Skinner. Of the two, Tkachuk's game is more similar to that of Landeskog, which is a good sign. Still though, the name value of Tkachuk is sky high enough to perhaps justify selling. Yes, in doing so you'd lose the ability to stack him with Norris or Stutzle; but in a late 2021 mailbag I covered line/pair stacking and determined it's not as great as it sounds.

Who to package with Tkachuk? Maybe one of the Ranger young wingers, since as noted in my previous mailbag their stats through their first two seasons suggest at least one of the two is at risk of being a bust and the comparables don't suggest great things for either. If you put one of them – I'd probably have it be Kakko, as I'm worried about him having both Celiac Disease and Diabetes – with Tkachuk in a deal, you should be able to get a superb asset in return who is young enough to still jibe with your youth plan, but also already good enough to know you're getting a player who has next to no risk. Mitch Marner or Sebastian Aho come to mind, but also the likes of Kyle Connor and Andrei Svechnikov would be worth considering if those first two are out of reach.

Even if you make that trade, you still have to drop someone. If it was me that someone would be Jesse Puljujarvi. I realize that dropping someone who could line up alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl is scary; but he's been uneven this season and there's just one PP1 spot for him, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, and Kailer Yamamoto. So he'd be one I'd cut loose.

If you don't do the trade, you need another for the chopping block. Although I maintain, as I noted in a recent Goldipucks column, that he's producing unsustainably below expectations, Thomas Chabot is one of the older players on your list and lurking in the shadows is Erik Brannstrom, who could eat away at Chabot's stranglehold on PP1, plus get some of Chabot's top deployment, what with Chabot being more of a minute eater while Brannstrom is more one-dimensionally offensive. If you can't get comfortable with dropping Chabot, then I'd let go of Kakko for the reasons noted above. Also, if for some reason you want to keep Puljujarvi then these would be the two drops.

To summarize, plan A is to trade Tkachuk and a Ranger winger (I'd pick Kakko) for a young stud forward, such that you'd only need to drop one player, who I'd have be Pool Party, or maybe Chabot. If you opt not to make the trade, then drop two of Puljujarvi, Chabot, and Kakko (I'd pick the first two). Good luck!

Question #2 (from Dwayne)

I'm in a 10 team H2H, keeper league with starting line-ups of 3C, 6W, 4D and 2G, plus 5 Bench and 2 IR spots, as well as 7 players in the "minors" who can be moved to the active roster, with minors qualification being, for skaters, having played in under 100 NHL games at the start of the season. Players can go back and forth to and from the minors without losing their "minors" status. Categories are equally weighted and include G, A, PTS, +/-, PPPts, SOG, HIT, BLK, GAA, SV%, SV and W.

I'm looking at grabbing at least one of the following younger defenseman: Calen Addison, Sean Durzi, Cam York, Adam Boqvist, Ville Heinola and/or Scott Perunovich. How would you rank them?

Perunovich dazzled in the minors and has not looked out of place in the NHL, making it so he's likely here to stay. Moreover, Torey Krug has been somewhat of a disappointment since arriving as a UFA. Yes, Krug makes a lot of money and can't really be redeployed in a role outside of an offensive defenseman; however, I still think that between the scoring talent on St. Louis and the prominent role, Perunovich is likely to rate well for both the short and long term.

If York and Heinola were on different teams I'd be more encouraged. But the Flyers have a surplus of defensemen, and Heinola has roadblocks in the form of Neal Pionk, Josh Morrissey, and Nate Schmidt. I just can't see an easy path for him to step up and succeed. Pretty much the same goes for York, as even if Keith Yandle is subtracted from the equation there's still Ryan Ellis and Ivan Provorov leading the way to get PP minutes. Maybe three or five years from now both will be valuable; however, carrying them that long might be tough to justify.

Addison, on the other hand, seemingly doesn't have a difficult path to reach – and succeed in – the NHL, as the Wild don't have someone on their roster or in the minors pipeline who's a prototypical PP QB. He's also put in time at the AHL level and fared well. Plus, once he gets his feet really wet in Minnesota, the team will have a solid core in addition to young forwards also poised to make major impacts.

Durzi arrived in LA after showing he was too good for the AHL, and he's done quite well. The issue is the team has Drew Doughty, who I don't foresee as someone who'll step aside from PP1. Still, the reality is Durzi is somewhat one-dimensional, but in a good way in that it will force LA to give him favorable deployment. A ticket to PP1 would likely lead to huge success for Durzi; and never say never, since Doughty may end up being used less in that role as he ages and his veteran skills are needed more in a shut down capacity. Think later career Zdeno Chara, Duncan Keith, Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Ryan Suter.

Boqvist is different than the others in that he won't be minors eligible next season, which is a downside in terms of roster flexibility. I realize he's highly touted; but what worries me is his SOG rate, which has remained barely above one per game. He's also not receiving a ton of ice time, though what he does get is conductive to scoring, as his OZ% is near 60%. For a while too he was regarded so highly as to have Columbus run a rare 2D, 3F PP1, with him and Zach Werenski both on the top unit. That experiment looked to have run its course before Werenski's injury. In terms of comparables, there is some good news for Boqvist, in that looking at other defensemen who, by age 21, also had more than one season of under 1.3 SOG per game, a points per game rate of 0.3 to 0.6, and who had played in 35+ games each season, we get just two since 1990-91: Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Tomas Kaberle. Boqvist is not cut from the same cloth as Vlasic, so that leaves Kaberle, who went on to score 47+ points six times in his solid career. The bad news is he didn't really hit his stride until age 28, which would be a long time to wait for Boqvist to pay dividends.

In sum, Boqvist has shown the most so far, but he doesn't shoot enough to figure him for much more than he's producing now, plus he has Werenski in the mix and won't be minors eligible next season. Perunovich would be rated higher were it not for the presence of Krug; however, being second banana on that team should be a very good gig. Addison is the risk/reward gamble, as he might need another season or two to make an impact, although he has no real roadbloacks to success; and depending on how things play out for the rest of 2021-22, he could even be the only one of the five who will still be minors eligible for 2023-24. Durzi has forced his way into the LA mix and if he continues to do well he might even eventually elbow Doughty out of the PP1 picture. York and Heinola are both talented but stuck in suboptimal situations.

I'd put them in two groups: Boqvist, Perunovich and Addision in the first and Durzi, York and Heinola in the second. I like Perunovich overall because he should be good soon, and get even better. Boqvist has talent and is doing well, but he might not make a leap unless he finds a way to shoot more and get PP1 time. Addison is the gambler's pick, as he could pay off big time or end up disappointing. Durzi is tops in group two, and could eventually be better than one or more of those in group one, while York and Heinola bring up the rear because of real life impediments to their fantasy value. Good luck!

Question #3 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I’m in a 12 man roto dynasty auction league, with categories of G, D-goals, A, PIM, PPP, SHP, HIT + BLK, takeaways/giveaways, FOW, FO Win%, Wins, SV, SV%, GAA. We have an 18 man active roster (4C, 7W, 5D and 2G), plus 6 reserves and a minor league bench of 6 players who are free carries and don’t have to be inserted into the lineup until they reach at 27 games played. A team can keep as few as eight players and as many as 13. Salary goes up by $4 each year for every player, exceptions being rookies given a rookie contract (increase of $1 a year for 2 years) and franchise contracts, of which each team gets two and which increase at $0, then $1, then $2, after which they cannot be retained, making it a trade off of lower retention cost but not being possible to be kept beyond three seasons. Our team budget is $220 with a minimum of 8 keepers up to a maximum of 13 keepers.

For centers next season, I'll have Aleksander Barkov as a 3rd year franchise contract at $24, plus Jack Eichel at $16, and Vincent Trocheck at $14. I currently have Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak at $1 each, meaning it would cost me $5 to retain either one next season. All five are eligible only as centers in this league. Out of Strome and Dvorak, who is the better keep going forward?

I was all set to say that maybe it makes sense to assess whether to even keep Trocheck. Then I took another look at the categories, which are pretty nice for a player like him. He's also set to be a UFA, and likely will be paid enough to guarantee a top six and like PP1 spot. As such, I won't consider him as a potential cut rather than perhaps Dvorak or Strome.

I think it's pretty easy to remove Dvorak from consideration. Think of it this way – what, if anything, has he done to make it so he shouldn't once again be a $1 draft pick for 2022-23? Coming into this season there was some buzz around his trade and it wasn't clear how he'd be used. Sure enough his OZ% has dropped and he's not being utilized in conditions favorable to scoring. Basically he's the new Phillip Danault, who did score at a 54 point pace twice with the Habs, which I think is the ceiling for Dvorak if he stays on this team and in this role. Is he draftable? Maybe. Is he keepable at $5? Not a chance. Remember, for a player to be retainable it's not just that he has to "worth" $5; but more importantly he needs to be someone who'd cost that much if not kept, and no way after the season Dvorak is having would Dvorak go for more than the same $1 price tag.

Strome, despite being only 24, is in his sixth season, but due to games played this should be his 200 game breakout season. Sure enough he's been some showing signs of the talent he displayed when he scored at 57 and 54 point paces a couple seasons ago. Also important is that Kirby Dach has not stepped up as many believed he would despite centering Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat for the majority of the first half of the season. Given what we're seeing now and what he'd done in the past, I don't think Strome will be obtainable for $1 next season, as some team will covet him enough to pay a few dollars more. The issue with Strome is his peripherals are lousy for this league, as he's not a face off guru and hardly hits or blocks shots. His PIM are okay though, and his PPPts are solid.

Given who you have at center already, and with Strome not being eligible at other positions, I think he's likely a risk/reward retention. By that I mean if you have the appetite for risk and want to swing for the fences, then I think you retain him, lest some other team be able to outbid you. But if you need assured production from the guys you retain, even at that low price, then maybe you just let him go back into the pool and, if you want, redraft him, as if Trocheck went for $14 I'm guessing Strome wouldn't go for much above $5 if even that price. Though he likely won't be $1 again after what we've seen and what he's done in the past.

If it was me, with three solid centers already locked in I'd probably let Strome go back into the pool and then draft him again if you're so inclined and his price is reasonable. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Mohamed)

I'm in a 14 team, keep 4, $200 budget auction league with 16 roster spots (3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1U, 2G start, i.e., no bench or IR) and with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PPPts, PIM, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK. In other words, it's a banger league. As I write this, I’m in 2nd and planning ahead for the playoffs. I see Alex Debrincat (LW/RW eligible) as one of my weaker players. I'm also scared Chicago will be deadline sellers, leaving DeBrincat with less support than he has now and making him more of a focal point for other teams, hurting his production.

With Alex Tuch, Pavel Buchnevich, Marcus Foligno, Jesper Bratt, Jared McCann, Clayton Keller and Anthony Duclair (all LW/RW, except McCann, who's C/LW) available as free agents as I write this, I’m debating if Debrincat is droppable. Tuch in particular intrigues me.

Also, my current list of keepers is Gabriel Landeskog ($25 to keep), Sam Bennett ($10), and Thomas Chabot ($8), with one of Tyler Seguin ($14) and Darnell Nurse ($24) for the last spot. Basically each keeper, if kept, costs $5 more than his draft or previous keeper price, meaning FAs who are kept cost $5 each. I know Seguin was downright awful for a while, yet he seems to be rounding back into form. But Nurse, despite poor utilization, is quite valuable in banger leagues, so I'm torn.

In case it helps, here is my complete roster, with, in parentheses, keeper cost for next year as well as, if applicable, dual position eligibility:

C – Mark Scheifele ($38), Bo Horvat ($24), Josh Norris ($19)

LW – Claude Giroux (C, $25), Landeskog (C, $25), Bennett (C, $10)

RW – Debrincat (LW, $14), Seguin (C, $14), Robert Thomas (C, $5)

D – Darnell Nurse ($24), Chabot ($8), Connor Murphy ($6), Jake McCabe ($5)

G – Tristan Jarry ($10), Frederick Andersen ($10)

Note that goalies cannot be kept – just skaters. Also, for added context, here are keeper prices that some top skaters command: Connor McDavid ($75), Jonathan Huberdeau ($40), Mitch Marner ($55), Sidney Crosby ($47), Alexander Ovechkin ($56), Nikita Kucherov ($75), Leon Draisaitl ($61). No team can spend more than $120 in total on its keepers; but clearly that won't be an issue for me.

My questions are what would you do regarding DeBrincat, and who do you see as my four keepers?

If you're in second place, you know your league well, and how to succeed in it. I raise that since I'm not sure if, at first glance at, I agree that DeBrincat is droppable. Yes, his scoring is goal-heavy and there's a concern Chicago will be gutted by the time the season ends; however, you do need goals and he does hit and shoot, plus is outstanding when it comes to PPPts. I realize Sam Bennett gives your team a good semblance of what DeBrincat does when it comes to scoring, plus considerably more in "banger" stats. But Bennett has spent more time off Florida's PP1 than on it. Also, in fantasy it's ironically often worse to be on a team with lots of scorers than it is to be one of a team's only scorers – that is, Bennett could get lost in the shuffle to some degree, whereas DeBrincat will be central to Chicago's offense no matter what. I'm not saying you should drop Bennett; however, it does raise the question as to whether or not to drop DeBrincat, so let's see what further analysis tells us.

There are some enticing names on the free agent list. I focused on McCann right away in hopes he could give you FOW from the wing; however, he isn't a big producer in that area and his scoring isn't great. Of the rest, I agree Tuch is worth considering as part of a short list, as are Buchnevich and Bratt. Foligno is great in banger categories, but he's at his ceiling and that ceiling is not high enough to roster. Keller is on a bad team; and if you're worried about DeBrincat, you should arguably be more concerned about Keller. Duclair has come back to earth somewhat and he too could be a victim of the "too many cooks" situation for Florida forwards, and that could result in him getting suboptimal deployment, especially since he makes less than most Panther forwards who could be used in the top six, including Bennett.

Buchnevich may have the most talent; however, St. Louis is rolling with three scoring lines and I'd rather go with a guy who's more of a focal point, which Tuch and Bratt are. Tuch is showing he's as good as he was once thought. There is the always-present injury risk; however, he scores, plus hits and shoots a ton. Bratt, on the other hand, is more of a scorer without the banger peripherals. Like you, I believe Tuch would be the one to grab if you do drop someone.

But do you, in fact, have someone who's "safe" to drop? And if so, is it Debrincat or another skater? Put me down for someone else. Not only do I think DeBrincat's production is unlikely to be negatively affected if Chicago cleans house, I believe he's a net positive in your other categories. Plus, he's set to be just the fourth player in the last 20 years to average 0.5 goals per game three or more times by age 24, with the other three being Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Rick Nash. Yes, Nash didn't pan out as great as was expected, but Kovalchuk was a star and Ovi is……well…….Ovi. Not only do I think DeBrincat isn't droppable; he might even be worth keeping again. But we'll get to that in a bit.

From where I sit there are three potential drops: Seguin, Giroux, and Thomas. With Giroux, the concern is he could be traded to Colorado or St. Louis, in which case the risk is he'd be utilized as a supporting player because of how good his destination team already is. On the other hand, if Giroux goes to Minnesota, as has also been rumored, he's immediately a candidate to center a potent first or second line. Seguin is doing better of late; however, he's been surpassed as the #1 center in Dallas, and I don't see that changing, although I suppose never say never and he's been reinstalled on PP1, although who knows how long that might last. Also, his FOW stats aren't in the same echelon as Thomas or Giroux. Thomas isn't a stat stuffer, but he's been very solid and he might even be a retention possibility at his price. From where I sit, you probably cut Thomas unless – ironically given he's being considered as a drop – he'd be a keeper for you. If he would, then you should drop Giroux unless you think he'll go to a team where he'll be well utilized, in which case drop Seguin.

As for your keepers, Tuch – at $5 – could end up being one if you do in fact pick him up and he continues to show he's for real. I also like Landy and Bennett for their prices. I think I like Nurse over Chabot, as other than Jacob Trouba I'm not sure any other d-man brings a combination of hits, shots, blocks, and PIM, plus decent points, to the table like Nurse. Yes, he'd be three times as expensive as Chabot; but what I'm seeing in Ottawa is making me a bit concerned that Erik Brannstrom could usurp Chabot's PP1 gig. Don't get me wrong – Ottawa will still lean on Chabot a lot, and he is more than decent in other categories plus comes much cheaper than Nurse; but Nurse is a monster in this format and a must keep from where I sit. This likely means Thomas would not be a keeper, making him the guy to drop for Tuch. Also, it appears you have better options than DeBrincat. So long story short, pick up Tuch for Thomas, and plan to keep Tuch, Landeskog, Bennett, and Nurse. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Jeremy)

I know in your columns you say you like to see forwards have IPPs that are over 70%, as you've found that seems to be a threshold above which you find the more elite players; but what about secondary assists? Do you have thresholds there – for good and/or bad?

Secondary assists are definitely an important metric to assess when gauging a player's performance. But it's not as black and white as IPP – that is, when it comes to secondary assists there are more variables that must be considered.

For defensemen, it's normal that they get a fair number of secondary assists. So I don't look unkindly on d-men with secondary assists percentages over 50% and perhaps even approaching the 55% mark. The exception is ones who run PP1 for their teams, as they should get a good number of primary assists via setting up one timers or from deflected point shots. In their case, they should be below 50% in general. But if a rearguard's secondary assist percentage is under 40%, I'd figure he's unsustainably unlucky in this area no matter what his deployment is.

It's a less cut and dry when it comes to forwards, as it depends on the type of player they are. What do I mean by that? The perception is centers are pass first, with assist totals higher than their goal totals, often by a significant margin. Make no mistake, some do fit that mold, like Robert Thomas and Evgeni Kuznetsov. But there are also centers who light the lamp quite often, like Auston Matthews and Leon Draisaitl, plus others with goals and assist totals that are comparable, like Dylan Larkin, Roope Hintz, or Elias Lindholm. In each case their secondary assist expectations differ.

For pass first centers, a secondary assist percentage as high as 50% would be reasonable, whereas one that is less than 35% might indicate unsustainable bad luck in this area. In contrast, for sniping centers, a percentage above 45% could be somewhat worrisome, since the thinking is if they're not scoring goals their shots are resulting in rebounds that are goals, giving them primary assists. In their case I'd expect a secondary assist rate closer to 35-40% as a norm, with one under 30% suggesting they are somewhat snake bit in this area. Lastly, for those centers whose assist and goal totals are similar, a secondary assist rate in the neighborhood of 40-45% is about what one should expect, with one higher than 50% or so being cause for concern, and one that's under 35% suggesting they've been unsustainably unlucky in this area.

Are there different rules for wingers? Generally no, as with them too it depends on what their style of play is, since there are wingers who are goal-centric (e.g., Chris Krieder, Alex Debrincat, Troy Terry, Andrew Mangiapane), some who are pass first (e.g., Jonathan Huberdeau, Johnny Gaudreau, Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane) and others (e.g., Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jason Robertson) who score about as many goals as they dish out assists.

Other factors that can influence a forward's secondary assists percentage are age and shifting styles. For age, although not always the case, young or less experienced forwards can be more unselfish and defer to others to do the goal scoring. As such, if a forward is age 23 or less or has logged fewer than 200 games of NHL experience and has a low secondary assists percentage, particularly if he isn't a high volume shooter, then it's all the more positive of a sign. For the same reason, I'm also sometimes willing to not look as unkindly upon a higher than normal percentage for these younger/inexperienced players. As for shifting styles, some forwards – particularly as they enter their 30s – can morph from one style of play to another, so make sure to take note of this and not think of the group into which a forward falls as being immutable.

Lastly, let me emphasize that secondary assist percentage is just one of several metrics, including IPP and offensive zone starting percentage, that should be assessed as a whole in order to determine if a player might be doing unsustainably better or worse than he should. Lucky for you, they can all be found in one place – Frozen Tools here at DobberHockey, where you must visit if you're going to make a trade, free agent pick-up, or even line-up decision, because the more data and metrics with which you arm yourself, the better your results will be. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Jim)

How would you rank the following players as keepers for now, three years from now, and five years from now: Jack Eichel, Elias Pettersson, Jack Hughes, Sam Reinhart, Tyler Toffoli, Casey Mittelstadt, Teuvo Teravainen, William Nylander, Travis Konecny, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljujarvi, Filip Zadina, Tony DeAngelo, Evan Bouchard, Adam Fox, Noah Dobson, Igor Shesterkin, Ville Husso, Spencer Knight, Marco Rossi, Alexander Holtz, Jake Sanderson?

This is for a 12 team, points league rostering 28 players (6C, 8W, 6D, 2G, plus 6 Bench) with no salary cap. Ten players can be kept, with at most two of them being goalies, and up to five rookies can be kept for free, with Rossi, Holtz, Sanderson, and Knight qualifying as rookies. My aim is to try and be competitive next season and be in the mix to win in three seasons, but also still remain competitive by year five.

Twenty-two players is a lot to assess; so rather than ranking them individually for each of the three time frames, I'll put them into tiers. Tier one players are unquestioned top performers, while tier two guys are very good but not quite in the highest echelon. Tier three are players who'll perform decently but likely be in the bottom half of those rostered, while tier four guys are either too young to make a mark or over the hill to an extent that they might be droppable. Question marks are for players where it's less clear what their value would be in three seasons, such that they might be worth more or less depending on circumstances/unknowns. I didn't include question marks for five seasons from now; but of course one can only hazard a guess as to what a player would be worth that far into the future.

Player	Value Now	Value in Three Seasons	Value in Five Seasons
Eichel	Tier 1	Tier 1	Tier 1
Pettersson	Tier 2	Tier 2?	Tier 2
Hughes	Tier 1	Tier 1	Tier 1
Reinhart	Tier 2	Tier 2	Tier 3
Toffoli	Tier 3	Tier 3	Tier 4
Mittelstadt	Tier 4	Tier 3	Tier 2
Teravainen	Tier 2	Tier 3	Tier 4
Nylander	Tier 2	Tier 2	Tier 3
Konecny	Tier 3	Tier 2	Tier 2
Laine	Tier 1	Tier 1?	Tier 1
Puljujarvi	Tier 3	Tier 2?	Tier 2
Zadina	Tier 4	Tier 3?	Tier 2
DeAngelo	Tier 1	Tier 2?	Tier 2
Bouchard	Tier 2	Tier 1	Tier 1
Fox	Tier 1	Tier 1	Tier 1
Dobson	Tier 2	Tier 2	Tier 2
Shesterkin	Tier 1	Tier 1	Tier 1
Husso	Tier 2	Tier 2?	Tier 3
Knight	Tier 4	Tier 2	Tier 1
Rossi	Tier 4	Tier 2	Tier 1
Holtz	Tier 4	Tier 2	Tier 1
Sanderson	Tier 4	Tier 3	Tier 2

Clearly the must keeps are Eichel, Fox and Shesterkin. After that, I think you try to get a nice asset by trading Pettersson, DeAngelo and Husso. I worry that Pettersson, despite his recent hot streak, is not going to pan out as expected, so best to seize upon his excellent play of late and move him. DeAngelo is great, but he can't really get much better, so he's a safe player to trade when you have the likes of Fox, Bouchard and Dobson. Husso is playing well but I'm not convinced he's starter material and might just be making a UFA push. If you package the three of them together you should be able to get a very solid forward, such as Dylan Larkin, Timo Meier, Kyle Connor, Andrei Svechnikov, or Sebastian Aho.

If that trade is made, it brings you to four keepers. I think you don't keep a second goalie, but you do keep Bouchard, who has looked brilliant at times this season and should be great soon, and Dobson, who's playing well and should be a monster once Barry Trotz is gone in 2023. Hughes also looks like he's primed to be a superstar by next season at the latest, and Laine appears to once again be every bit the force he was before the speed bump of last season.

The last two boil down to Teravainen, Pool Party, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Konecny, Reinhart, Toffoli and Zadina. I think it's not Zadina, who hasn't really showed me much. Mittelstadt's injury issues, coupled with the emergence of Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson make me think twice about him too. Puljujarvi, who I discussed in response to Question #1, is a risk/reward guy; and as good as he's looked at times, he's also disappeared for stretches. Plus, name me a winger who's stuck with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl long term? You can't because there haven't been any, and I worry Pool Party will fall short of expectations. Konecny is a good bet to succeed, but I'm not sure he has more than 70 points in him even at his peak, and Toffoli is the only one of these guys who might actually see his production decline in three years. I like Nylander though, who should be very solid given his team and role, and Reinhart, who's showing he's the real deal this season, succeeding on every line and in every situation.

So the final list would be Eichel, Hughes, Fox, Shesterkin, the forward you get in trade for DeAngelo, Pettersson and Husso, plus Bouchard, Dobson, Laine, Nylander, Reinhart, and the four rookies. I believe that will set you up quite well for three years from now, with a chance to be very good next season if you have a solid draft. Good luck!

Question #7 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a full keeper, ten team H2H league rostering 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 4BN, 1IR, and 1IR+, and with categories of G, A, +/- PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK; GS, W, GA, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO. My current team consists of:

F – Anton Lundell, Elias Pettersson, Mika Zibanejad, Bo Horvat, Brady Tkachuk, Tanner Jeannot, Alexis Lafreniere, Matt Boldy, Matthew Tkachuk, Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Boeser, Trevor Zegras, Jack Hughes, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakub Vrana (IR)
D – Miro Heiskanen, Tony DeAngelo (IR+), Devon Toews, Zach Werenski, Adam Fox, Alexander Romanov, Jakub Chychrun
G – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Thatcher Demko, Jake Oettinger, Ville Husso

My question is who should I drop – or trade – to make room for Vrana and DeAngelo once they're soon healthy? Would you consider adding Cole Caufield and/or Bowen Byram (who I previously owned but dropped)? Both are free agents as I write this? If so, who else would you drop/trade?

Two names that come to mind as guys to trade are Husso and Toews. Sure, Husso seems like he's on his way to becoming a great goalie; however, prior to this season he'd appeared in just 17 total NHL games, is already 27 years old, and just so happens to be playing for a UFA deal. Past comparables don't always predict the future, but his story is quite similar to that of Chris Driedger, who last season, at age 26 and after having played 15 career games, posted 14 wins in 23 games played with a GAA of 2.07 and SV% of .927. Will a similar fate befall Husso? It's tough to say, although the situation is concerning enough to me to try and sell high on him.

Toews is also a sell high. Yes, being tethered to Cale Makar will bestow points upon him just by showing up; however, what he's doing now is unsustainable given his IPP as well as a very high secondary assist percentage. In fact, there's little difference between how Toews is being deployed this season versus 2020-21, except for the luck metrics being too far in his favor this season versus last. Moreover, dating back to 2000-01, a total of just six other defensemen – like Toews this season – averaged over 20:00 per game of ES ice time, plus also over 1:00 of PP time, and at least 2:50 of SH time in 40+ games. Of them, a mere one averaged even a point per every other game – Jacob Trouba, with 33 points in 60 games in 2016-17. Make no mistake that the Makar effect is real; however, Toews is more like what he was last season than what we're seeing in 2021-22 given his deployment, and he should be traded ASAP.

I could also see trading Horvat. Yes, he's gold for FW, and chips in decently in other categories; but after seeing his scoring rate increase literally every season of his career he's now on track to see it decline for the second straight season. Plus, I don't see Horvat's role changing, as the Canucks will want to re-sign him next summer, even if it means losing J.T. Miller, who's a UFA then as well. By then Pettersson will be poised to be the first line center, with Horvat likely doing more of the same. Trade him while he still has name value and can command a decent return. The loss of FW will hurt, but not as much as it will to have him providing subpar scoring in future seasons.

If there's another player to consider trading it would be DeAngelo. After all, it's difficult to envision him doing better than he is now, so although you might not be selling high in that it's unlikely he'll do worse, it's also not a case of a player who, once you trade him, is a risk to do a lot better. Even if he plays at this level for several more seasons, you'll have received appropriate value in return. Also, by doing this you guard against the possibility that somehow his off ice issues resurface again.

Trading those four for two players in return would solve your drops, although you'd still need to drop someone else to let you pick up Caufield, which I think is indeed a good play. Caufield definitely hit a speed bump earlier this season but has looked great of late and it seems his growing pains are over. The player to drop would have to be Jeannot or Romanov. Both are superb stat stuffers; but Caufield could be a truly special player, so you have to let one (or, if trading doesn't work as planned, both) of them go, as you can always try to accumulate hits and blocks elsewhere. As for Byram, I know you said he was on your team and you dropped him for an earlier move. If no one has picked him up that says a lot in a league with this many teams and players owned. I fear that Byram, as talented as he's projected to be, might have a tough time making a mark given the other d-men in Colorado. Still, if you want to pick them both up I'd probably part with dropping Romanov first, as while some have painted him as a potential star in the making, I don't like that he hardly shoots the puck and seems to not be cut from an offensive cloth. Guys like him grow on trees, guys like Caufield don't. If you want Byram bad enough, then the guy to go would be Jeannot.

In summary, trade Husso, Toews, Horvat and/or DeAngelo, and be prepared to drop Romonov and, if necessary, Jeannot as well to get Caufield and, if desired, Byram. That should leave you with a still great core. Of course what could happen is for the rest of your season you have two players who qualify for IR, which would be both a good and a bad problem to have, as yes you'd be without the services of two of your players but at the same time you wouldn't have to drop anyone, or the decision to do so could be postponed. Still, I wouldn't use that as an excuse not to make the trade(s) I suggested. Good luck!

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