Ramblings – The NHL is Stepping Up the Offense – and We Love It (Mar 28)

Dobber

2022-03-28

With the Trade Deadline a week past, I've been paying attention to how the new players have been used on their new teams, and of course how that impacted the players already on those teams. You'll see a few of those observations here. Let's dig in…

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First, my Islanders rant. I didn't plan it, but I started jotting my thoughts and it exploded into a rant. Not sure if it's a rant against Trotz or a rant against Lamoriello. Maybe both?

When the Islanders got off to such a terrible start, it was my opinion that the coach (Barry Trotz) had lost the team. That opinion hasn't changed. I think the team is better than this. They are 10-10-3 in their last 23, and 4-3-1 in the last eight. Zero indication of a second-half surge that gets them close to the playoffs. It's obvious that, after doing nothing at the Trade Deadline, that for some reason management has full confidence in the team and the coaches. And not only did management do nothing – but they extended two of their veterans. Lou Lamoriello has always been the GM to keep his team together no matter how bad. A team that does nothing, he'll make zero changes so that the team can continue to do nothing. Yes, it's a playoff style of coaching, but you have get into the playoffs first. Lamoriello and Trotz are not keeping up with the times. Teams are scoring goals by the bucketful in today's game, and Barry Trotz is chanting "D-Fence!"

That being said, Brock Nelson is overcoming the Trotz obstacle and is on a tear. He has 12 goals in his last 13 games, and 18 points in his last 14. He is now on pace to finish with 61 points, which would lead the Islanders in scoring and set a career high. Mathew Barzal would finish second at 56, Anders Lee at 50, Noah Dobson at 48 and somehow Anthony Beauvillier is on pace to finish next with 40 points (currently has 31). That speaks volumes on the style of this team. Lamoriello is running this team the way he ran the Devils, so I suspect that even if Trotz gets replaced it will be a coach with a similar style. /rant

Mikhail Sergachev snapped a nine-game pointless drought with two on Sunday. He is averaging over 2.5 SOG per game over his last 20 games (i.e. since February 1).

Tampa line combinations with Brandon Hagel on the team:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
9:1119.2STAMKOS – KUCHEROV – POINT1016460.09950.0
8:1417.2PAUL – COLTON – HAGEL0002340.08947.1
8:1317.2PERRY – MAROON – BELLEMARE0009190.014287.5
7:3215.8PALAT – KILLORN – CIRELLI0002250.07463.6

While Hagel is not going to do much for you this season on that line – and I think he'll stay there – for him this is about settling in with the team. I think he'll have a pretty good postseason of, say, a point every two games. But Tampa acquired him to be their next Ondrej Palat. Palat is a UFA this summer and now the Lightning have the next Palat, but at a fifth of the cost and a quarter of the injuries. I like Hagel's outlook for next season.

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Where do I start when it comes to a team beating Detroit 11-2? The Red Wings have allowed nine, 10 and now 11 goals in a game over the past month. The team isn't playing for Jeff Blashill anymore. Alex Nedeljkovic was pulled in this game, but then backup Calvin Pickard got injured and Ned had to go back on. So he got roasted for seven goals on 22 shots.

Moritz Seider has just one point in his last 11 games and he was a minus-3 on Sunday. Just two weeks ago he was my slam dunk Calder choice, but now he is letting the rest of the field catch up.

Filip Zadina is having a miserable year and has seen declining production each of his last three seasons. But I consider him a buy-low opportunity. Next year, around midseason, he will hit his Breakout Threshold of 200 career games and so the time to get him is now. Not huge upside – perhaps 70, and next season with a strong second half perhaps he comes close to 50. But the time to get him in dynasty leagues is this offseason and you would be getting him for 2023-24.

Pittsburgh's 11 goals were the most scored by any team since 2003, when Washington scored 12.

So the Penguins score 11 and that pretty much pads the stats of all the key players…except Jake Guentzel, who managed to get just one point. Every player on the roster had a point except for Brian Dumoulin, Marcus Pettersson and Tristan Jarry.

Evgeni Malkin and Teddy Blueger (?) tallied four points each while Rickard Rakell had three points playing on a line with Malkin. Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Kris Letang each got three as well. With the hat trick, Malkin now has 13 in his career, passing Crosby (12). That's second in Pittsburgh history. Mario Lemieux is the franchise leader with, uh… (checks notes)… 40.

Rust was taken off the Crosby line and put with Rakell and Malkin, which I found interesting. And even though the team won 11-2, that line gave up more chances (nine) than they created (eight). Evan Rodrigues moved into Rust's spot on the Crosby – Guentzel line and that line was the worst on the team, giving up 11 chances while creating just six. If these results happen again, without the lopsided win (seven of the goals were at even strength), I would expect Rodrigues and Rust to switch back.

For Rakell, it was his first appearance on the scoresheet since joining the Penguins. He had been pointless in three and actually was not a factor in the Penguins first five goals. So the team was up 5-0 before Rakell finally started cashing in. But I think all of us expected him to flourish alongside Malkin, so perhaps the dam has now been broken.

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Frank Vatrano played a season-high 18:19 of ice time Sunday and scored twice with his new team – his fourth goal in his last four games with the Rangers. He's got a sweet spot on the second line with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad. With two snipers like Kreider and Vatrano on his wings, you can expect Zibanejad's assist numbers to spike even though (ironically) he didn't assist on either of Vatrano's goals Sunday.

Ryan Strome left the game Sunday with a lower-body injury that was said to not be serious. After he left, Andrew Copp moved to center for the first time since joining the Rangers. Prior to Strome's exit, here were the line combinations:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
13:4223.2ZIBANEJAD – KREIDER – VATRANO2025362.512957.1
7:1212.2GOODROW – CHYTIL – LAFRENIERE01-14266.76460.0
6:0510.3BRODZINSKI – HUNT – MOTTE0003175.05362.5
5:018.5STROME – COPP – PANARIN0002250.06460.0

Ryan Reaves and Julien Gauthier were the forwards who were scratched, meaning minor leaguer Jonny Brodzinski may have stolen a job.

It may not appear like a great situation for Alexis Lafreniere, but I really like him on the third line. He has had his struggles as a pro and much of that is due to being rushed. Now out of the spotlight, he can do his thing. He has five points in his last five games. Filip Chytil has untapped potential and the two of them could be what each other needs. As a bigger forward, Chytil's BT will be closer to 400 games, and if he's playing with Lafreniere I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 300. He may have sneaky value for next season. It's a big leap to make over just a few games, but I always look for two young players with upside to have chemistry (such as Sonny MilanoTrevor Zegras).

Speaking of which – Buffalo is still rolling with Peyton Krebs and Dylan Cozens as linemates. That's a pair to watch. Right now Vinnie Hinostroza is the third linemate, but unless he starts flying he probably doesn't hang onto that job after this season.

With two assists Sunday, Casey Mittelstadt has five points in four games. He was playing with Viktor Olofsson and Rasmus Asplund.

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Linemates Joel Farabee (10 points in eight games) and James van Riemsdyk (eight in eight) have been doing really well since Cam Atkinson moved to their line. With Claude Giroux being moved out and Owen Tippett in, the Flyers have shuffled their lines.

As part of that shuffle, undrafted prospect Hayden Hodgson was actually on the Kevin HayesTravis Konecny line. Hodgson, 26, has been a career ECHLer.

And speaking of young duos – the Flyers are trying Tippett and Morgan Frost together. Just something to watch.

Tanner Jeannot and Yakov Trenin had themselves quite the game for Nashville Sunday and are establishing themselves as a very effective and dangerous checking line. Jeannot had three points, five PIM and three Hits while Trenin scored twice, had four shots, was plus-3 with five Hits. Colton Sissons was the other linemate, playing his usual role – and he's taken them under his wing.

Roman Josi, a defenseman, has 26 points in his last 12 games. He has a career-high 81 on the season (64 games) now and is on pace for 104. Only four other defensemen in NHL history have reached the 80-point mark in fewer than 65 games – and zero in the last 30 years. Here is the list, it's pretty decent I guess: Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey, Denis Potvin, Al MacInnis. Furthermore, only Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey have tallied more points in a calendar month than the 28 that Josi has so far in March. Orr holds the record with 31 points in March of 1971, followed by Coffey with 29 in December of 1985! Josi still has one game left, so a four-point effort would make history. But hell, one point would tie the second highest, so we'll take that too.

It's hard to believe that none of that has rubbed off on his partner Dante Fabbro, who has just 18 points. With Fabbro sidelined, Alexandre Carrier has moved up to be Josi's partner – and he picked up two assists in Sunday's contest. Fabbro is out longer term, so you may see a bump in Carrier's ES production.

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Speaking of older players setting career highs, 34-year-old Mats Zuccarello had three assists against the Avalanche and now has 67 points. His previous best was 61 from six years ago. He'll take a run at 90 and I think he will have a Joe Pavelski-like continuance in this production the next two seasons as he remains signed with the Wild and is locked in as Kirill Kaprizov's linemate. If someone in my dynasty is trading him this summer, thinking they are selling high – I'm buying. I really do think he has two great years left, health permitting.

Matt Boldy is pointless in his last six games. He's still playing with Kevin Fiala, who is red hot despite this.

Since acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury, here are the stats between he and Cam Talbot:

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Talbot 3-0-0, 1.33, 0.959, 4.722 GSAA, 100% QS

Fleury 1-0-0, 2.00, 0.920, 0.225 GSAA, 100% QS

Say what you want of Fleury, but even if he doesn't play much or doesn't do as well, he has definitely brought out the best in Talbot and Minnesota is better off for it. This could be a sneaky-good playoff team.

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Colorado line combos with their new faces, but with Gabriel Landeskog (injury) and newcomer Artturi Lehkonen (visa) unavailable:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
12:4125.4NICHUSHKIN – MACKINNON – RANTANEN01-16650.0121152.2
10:4521.5KADRI – BURAKOVSKY – COMPHER1018188.912666.7
5:4311.5AUBE-KUBEL – STURM – NEWHOOK0008466.79950.0
5:0210.1HELM – COGLIANO – O’CONNOR0002166.72625.0

I can see Landeskog bumping Nichushkin down to Line 2, Lehkonen bumping Aube-Kubel to the press box, Compher dropping to Line 4 and sending Helm or possibly O'Connor to the press box. That makes for a scary lineup.

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Toronto topped Florida in a potential first-round matchup thanks to three-point games from Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly. Marner had 15 points in his first 19 games this season and then 59 in his next 37, which is a 130-point pace.

How good is Toronto's offensive depth? Well, they currently have nine players with a Pts/60 rate of 2.0 or higher (plus Jason Spezza is at 1.9). Last season they had seven. Eight, if you include Alex Galchenyuk as a "regular", which he wasn't.

After two points in each of his first two games with Florida, Claude Giroux was held without a point Sunday. Here were Sunday's line combos with Giroux there:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
8:0615.6REINHART – LUOSTARINEN – MARCHMENT01-12340.04544.4
7:5115.1HUBERDEAU – BENNETT – DUCLAIR1015455.67558.3
6:5313.2CLAUDE GIROUX – BARKOV – VERHAEGHE0001233.33442.9
4:308.7ACCIARI – LOMBERG – MAMIN00010100.01150.0

That Reinhart line will look pretty sweet when Anton Lundell returns. The Panthers will also have veterans Joe Thornton and Patric Hornqvist to draw from come playoff time.

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After three consecutive losses, rookie Karel Vejmelka stood on his head on Sunday and stopped 38 of 40 shots. The Coyotes lost in overtime, but Vejmelka has not had an RBS (Really Bad Start) since Scott Wedgewood was dealt. In fact, Vejmelka's last rough outing was February 8. Since February 9:

4-6-1, 3.01 GAA, 0.917 SV%, +2.333 GSAA, 54.5% QS

Solid numbers on a terrible team. Offers hope for next season that he may not be a bad No.3 goalie or even a No.2 guy in deep leagues. He's showing that he can give us decent fantasy points despite his team losing more than they win.

Nick Ritchie has nine points in 14 games since joining Arizona and seems to be on the Clayton KellerNick Schmaltz line for the duration of the season. How well he does there will determine his future NHL contract. But no pressure.

Mason Appleton is still looking for his first point since returning to Winnipeg four games ago. He's still on that third line with Adam Lowry and Zach Sanford.

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Since Martin St. Louis took over as interim head coach of the Montreal Canadiens on February 9, here are the top scorers over those 21 games:

Cole Caufield (25 points)

Nick Suzuki (22 points)

Rem Pitlick (14 points)

Jeff Petry, Josh Anderson (each with 10 points in 19 games)

Chris Wideman (10 points)

Also of note, Christian Dvorak has three points in six games under St. Louis, and David Savard has three points in four games.

This is a one-line team right now, but with Jonathan Drouin, Brendan Gallagher and Dvorak always being hurt, it's hard to get a feel for whether or not this is really the case. There isn't a lot they can do about it, because their cap is tied up even for next year.

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Big announcement – we have launched our new DFS subscription. These tools have a very solid track record. And for the late portion of the season and playoffs, we are offering $20 off. Avid DFS players will more than make this money back over the remainder of the season I'm sure. Right now it is for Draft Kings, but we will have other DFS tools available over time.

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-03-28 at 12:30

    I think NYI’s issues simply relate to scheduling issues, injuries, and Covid. I have them to bounce right back next season as long as Covid doesn’t derail a 4th season.

    Scoring is up substantially for 2 of the same reasons, covid has made the schedule far too condensed, having teams playing exhausted allowing for far greater goal scoring as players are tired and missing assignments when exhausted the 1st thing lost is mental capacity.

    The reason NYI is struggling to score has far more to do with the same, exhausted playing far too many games in too short a period. NYI has been playing 4 games a week forever with a back-to-back in every week. No team should have to do that.

  2. Striker 2022-03-28 at 12:38

    Do we no longer have the ability to edit comments?

    I have scoring if Covid doesn’t derail a 4th season to drop right back into the 2.95 range in 2022/23 as the current binge is a benefit of the scheduling issues.

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SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
25.7 KIRILL KAPRIZOV JOEL ERIKSSON EK MATT BOLDY
19.7 MARCO ROSSI MARCUS JOHANSSON RYAN HARTMAN
16.3 YAKOV TRENIN FREDERICK GAUDREAU MARCUS FOLIGNO

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