My Ramblings this week have been a look back at some preseason predictions and how they fared. We had an overview of a handful of players on Tuesday and we looked at players I flat-out missed on yesterday. We are going to finish the week on a positive note and self-congratulation: players that proved me right in one way or another this year.

To refresh, I use something called Standings Gained Points (SGP) for projecting season-long value. It was introduced to me by a fantasy baseball writer named Tanner Bell and is a good way to evaluate relative value. All SGP looks at is how much a certain player helps/hurts in a given fantasy category, based off the replacement value at that position. For example, if a replacement-level centre in my home league averages 19 goals/82 games, and Brayden Point is projected for 28 goals, the difference is positive SGP, and added to his final score. We do that for every category, for every player, to come up with one number we can compare within each position.  

For this exercise, we will be using Yahoo standard leagues and where players have finished the season (or at least, to this point). For my rankings, I just used centre/winger/defence, so the winger position is a bit flexible. It doesn't really matter for our purposes, though.

Final note: we're going to talk about guys that I was both high and low on, for various reasons, so we may include some players that you, dear reader, were high/low on and missed. Sorry!

Centre

J.T. Miller (My preseason ranking among centres based on SGP: 11^th)

This was a player I was very high on in hits leagues because he could bring good value across all the relevant categories. Realistically, I should have had him 10^th, as Patrice Bergeron was ranked just ahead of him, and when things are that close, we should lean to the younger player. Regardless, I had him ranked ahead of Brayden Point, Roope Hintz, John Tavares, Elias Pettersson, and others that may have been close to him in some other spots. It really was a great year for Miller, and it was something that spanned both coaches, a testament to his ability to produce in even sub-optimal situations (yes, much better under Boudreau, but that's not uncommon on this team). It feels like this is his career year, but if the league's scoring keeps up and the Boudreau-led Canucks maintain their play into next season? Well, his preseason ranking should be interesting.

Vincent Trocheck (My preseason ranking: 12^th)

We'll call this one a pass, but not an A+. He won't finish as a top-12 centre – probably top-20 or top-25 – but he was often drafted way, way outside the top-25 centres. In short, the gap between my ranking of Trocheck and almost everyone else's ranking of Trocheck was a chasm the width of the Mariana Trench. It is a case where even though I had him ranked as high as I did, I knew I could wait several rounds past the fourth or fifth and grab him in the 10^th or later. He hasn't even had a great year, production-wise, but that is the value of providing a very high number of hits. I should have seen the big IPP decline coming but we'll take what we got here.

Elias Lindholm (My preseason ranking: 13^th)

Quite the run we have here, isn't it? Miller, Trocheck, Lindholm were 11^th-13^th by my centre rankings and all three panned out, to varying levels. Miller was near-elite, Trocheck was pretty good, and here comes Lindholm having a great season. At time of writing, he's one goal and one assist short of a 40-40 season, and he's already cleared his career-high in shots by 36 (and counting). Now, to be fair, the biggest component of Lindholm's value on Yahoo this season was his absurd plus/minus – sitting at plus-56 as of Thursday afternoon – but even if we cut that in half, he's still around a top-20 centre, and still a good draft value. I do find it weird how my rankings absolutely loved Lindholm this year but were more muted on Gaudreau/Tkachuk. That's something to look into this offseason.

Mathew Barzal (My preseason ranking: 33^rd)

I was considerably lower on Barzal than almost anyone I can find, even checking the preseason rankings from various writers across the industry at Fantasy Pros. Lots of places had him in the O'Reilly/Hintz/Lindholm tier, whereas I had him in the Suzuki/McCann/Larkin tier. Let's be very honest here: if Barzal is the centre for Nikita Kucherov in Tampa Bay, or Patrick Kane in Chicago, or like 15 other spots in the league, he's easily a top-20 fantasy centre. There are numerous issues when looking at the Islanders from a fantasy perspective, namely the lack of high-end wingers, a limited power-play role, and uncertain ice time. With a good start to the season, they're probably making noise in the playoffs. But this team is not built for high-end fantasy success from anyone that isn't a goalie.  

Winger

David Perron (My preseason ranking among all wingers based on SGP: 21^st)

Remember that my rankings include both left and right wingers, which is why Perron is 21^st overall here. He didn't reach those heights, but he considerably out-performed where he was drafted, and that's what we were expecting. The funny part is that he's not going to reach 70 games played, he saw his lowest TOI/game since 2016, and he's still a top-75 player on Yahoo. That is what performing across all categories can do, with a healthy dose of power-play points. This wasn't a grand slam on my part, but we take our slap singles when we can get them.

Filip Forsberg (My preseason ranking: 26^th)

It might seem like a lifetime ago, but very few of us had high hopes for Nashville in the offseason, nor many of their players. Forsberg was ranked outside the top-100 players and 29^th by left wingers on Yahoo, and roughly the 25^th left winger by expert consensus on Fantasy Pros. Now, we couldn't expect Forsberg to push 40 goals in a season where he won't play 70 games, and that's what has made him a monster value. However, like Perron, this is a guy that contributes across the board and that versatility is often undervalued. When everything goes right, we get seasons like Forsberg is having, even if he misses a dozen games.

Chris Kreider (My preseason ranking: 31^st)

Let's get this out of the way: no one saw this season coming from him. No one was projecting 50 goals, and I'd wager no one was projecting 40, either. At least not seriously. With that said, he was just inside the top-40 left wingers by Yahoo rankings, around a top-125 players, and the 32^nd-ranked left winger on Fantasy Pros. What made Kreider even more valuable for me was providing value across all categories (sense a theme here?). The high level of hits, combined with good production and solid shot rates, would make a very good fantasy value. What I did not expect is that he would score nearly as many power-play goals (25) as goals I had projected for him in total (27). I had him easily inside the top-100 picks, but no, I did not have him en route to a 50-goal season. We'll take those, though.

Defence

Kris Letang (My preseason ranking among defencemen: 7^th)

One thing I do with my projections is, unless there's a real reason not to, I project every player for 82 games. Obviously, players that are injured going into the season are discounted, but no one else is. Sometimes it doesn't work out, but sometimes you get a 60-point, 200-shot, 160-hit season from a defenceman at a discount because everyone else is assuming the player will miss 20 games. I'm not sure which approach is right, in the long run, but sometimes you get this from Letang, or 2014 from Crosby, or even this season from Steven Stamkos, to a degree.

Quinn Hughes (My preseason ranking: 12^th)

Fantasy Pros had him ranked as the eighth blue liner off the board, while he was fifth over on Yahoo. I thought he'd be better for multi-cat fantasy leagues, but there are serious peripheral concerns here, and there always have been. This is now his third full season and he has yet to have one where he cracks two shots per game (that's bad) and he has 44 hits in 200 career games (also bad). This should hammer home just how important it is to have a balanced profile. Hughes is over 60 points, over 30 PPPs, has a decent plus/minus, and is 14^th by d-men on Yahoo, only ahead of the next guy on our list because of injuries. Something to keep in mind for next draft season.

Tony DeAngelo (My preseason ranking: 22^nd)

He's going to finish as a top-20 defenceman and he's going to do it by playing, at most, 64 games. Without a serious injury and maybe 78 games played, he might be a top-10 defenceman. He doesn't hit as much as Letang, but he provides some hits, and it's a lot better than what guys like Hughes or Barrie provide. He has double-digit goals, may crack 50 points despite all the time missed, and may reach 20 PPPs as well. The plus/minus is what's been a big help, but it shouldn't be that big of a surprise on what was expected to be a pretty good team. Having a lock on the top PP role, while providing at least adequate peripherals, can do wonders for fantasy value.

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I guess this counts as an update from Boston, and it's good as we're going to get from most teams:

Update: Cassidy confident that Pastrnak, Lindholm will play Sun or Tues.

— Kevin Paul Dupont (@GlobeKPD) April 21, 2022

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Speaking of the aforementioned Brayden Point:

UPDATES:

Brayden Point is OUT with a lower body injury. He is listed as day to day.

The #Bolts will skate with 11 forwards and 7 defensemen. Bogosian and Foote are both in the game tonight.

Vasilevskiy is the starting goaltender. #GoBolts

— Gabby Shirley (@Gabby_Shirley_) April 22, 2022

Not that it’s a huge deal but any player from a contender missing games at this time of season is noteworthy.

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Most stats at this point of the season do not matter but we should point out that Steven Stamkos passed mentor Martin St. Louis on the Tampa Bay all-time scoring list with a second-period power-play goal. Quite the feat for Stammer, who now has the franchise record and a couple Cups. Still a lot of years left in that tank, too.

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Andrew Copp scored a natural hat trick in New York’s win on Thursday night, while Artemi Panarin had four assists. That second line from the Rangers has looked phenomenal of late, and that’s a big addition heading into the postseason.