Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Michael Amato (subbing for Dobber)

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1. Another hockey legend left us on Friday with Guy Lafleur passing away at the age of 70. Few hockey stars captured the kind of emotional connection that Lafleur had with fans. You could easily picture him skating down the ice with his long-flowing hair, ready to score a goal for a Canadiens team that dominated the 1970s.

Lafleur’s time predates that of the DobberHockey website, but the fourth-year theory for projecting when a player’s breakout occurs can be traced all the way back to Lafleur. The story making the rounds is that Lafleur emerged as the star we know when he decided to ditch the helmet after his first three seasons. However, his breakout from simply good to elite happened right on time in Season 4 – the 1974-75 season. 

1971-72 : 73 GP, 29-35-64
1972-73 : 69 GP, 28-27-56
1973-74 : 73 GP, 21-35-56
1974-75 : 70 GP, 53-66-119

Lafleur’s 53 goals and 119 points in 1974-75 was his first of six consecutive 50-goal seasons and 100-point seasons. During those six seasons, the Habs won four Stanley Cups.

If you’re not old enough to remember Lafleur during his prime years with the Habs, perhaps you can recall his ‘unretirement’ in the late 1980s with the New York Rangers and then the rival Quebec Nordiques. It seemed strange seeing Lafleur in a blue jersey instead of the iconic Canadiens bleu, blanc et rouge, but at least it gave us a look at a hockey superstar for those who missed it the first time.

Adieu, Guy. RIP. (apr23)

2. Robin Lehner will reportedly undergo season-ending surgery to repair a lower-body injury, although coach Peter DeBoer denied that report on Friday. Lehner has had a rough season with 23 wins, a 2.83 GAA, .907 SV%, and a negative GSAA (goals saved above average). Lehner was drafted on average at 19.5 in Yahoo drafts, so even without the injury he’s been one of the biggest busts in fantasy leagues this season. This is a classic example of why choosing a goalie early in a fantasy draft is risky (another shoutout to the Zero G strategy).

I’ll probably be hanging on to Logan Thompson for the rest of the season. The Golden Knights play only four more games this season. If Lehner is in fact done for the season, Thompson should start at least three of those four games, as there are back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday. (apr23)

3. Playing in their second game of back-to-back nights on Friday didn’t slow the Minnesota Wild. Not only did Kevin Fiala extend his point streak to nine games, he also picked up five assists, a franchise record for one game. Over his past nine games, Fiala has a staggering 21 points, including nine goals.

Fiala is once again turning up the heat in the second half, scoring 53 points over his last 40 games compared to 29 points over his first 38 games. Last season the split was also very pronounced with 29 points over the last 28 games after just 11 points over the first 22 games. By my recollection, that’s the third consecutive season he’s basically been a second-half player. This is what he’s becoming known for. Over the past two seasons, Fiala has scored at a 0.67 PTS/GP pace during the first half, then accelerated to a 1.2 PTS/GP pace during the second half. Don’t drop or trade him during the first half if he’s not meeting your expectations. (apr23)

4. If you’re wondering how the Wild have become a better team the past couple seasons, the number one reason has to be the addition of Kirill Kaprizov. In his second season, Kaprizov has reached the 100-point mark, becoming the seventh player this season to do so. Kaprizov scored his 45^th goal of the season and added three assists. Although the Wild have only four games left, Kaprizov has an outside shot at 50 goals if he can go on a late-season goal-scoring run. (apr23)

5. Six games, five points for Matty Beniers in his short NHL career. Beniers recorded a point in each of his first five games, but was blanked against Dallas on Saturday. In this brief stint, Beniers seems to be establishing himself as the top player to pick from the Kraken in next season’s drafts. Also, a friendly reminder that Seattle is the only team to play four games next week – a week that might have huge implications in your league.

Over his past five games, Jared McCann has six points (1 G, 5 A). McCann has been in my lineup this week because of Seattle’s off-night schedule (Monday/Wednesday/Friday), and he’ll probably stay in next week because of the four-game schedule. (apr23)

6. Evander Kane‘s hat trick turned out to be the difference for the Oilers in their 6-3 win over Colorado on Friday, a win that officially clinched their playoff spot. Kane also filled the statsheet with a plus-3, six shots, and three hits. Since Kane arrived in Edmonton at the end of January, he has already scored 20 goals and been a near point-per-game performer (35 PTS in 39 GP). That in spite of playing in less than half of his team’s power-play minutes. Kane has now scored at least 20 goals in each of his last seven seasons. (apr23

7. Jack Roslovic continued his late-season run on Friday with his 20th goal of the season, giving him eight goals over his last six games. At time of writing, he was under 20% rostered in Yahoo leagues, so I was able to add him in my roto league. (apr23)

8. My Ramblings this week have been a look back at some preseason predictions and how they fared. We had an overview of a handful of players on Tuesday and we looked at players I flat-out missed on Thursday. We are going to finish the week on a positive note and self-congratulation: players that proved me right in one way or another this year.

J.T. Miller (My preseason ranking among centers based on SGP: 11^th):

This was a player I was very high on in hits leagues because he could bring good value across all the relevant categories. Realistically, I should have had him 10^th, as Patrice Bergeron was ranked just ahead of him, and when things are that close, we should lean to the younger player. Regardless, I had him ranked ahead of Brayden Point, Roope Hintz, John Tavares, Elias Pettersson, and others that may have been close to him in some other spots. It really was a great year for Miller, and it was something that spanned both coaches, a testament to his ability to produce in even sub-optimal situations (yes, much better under Boudreau, but that’s not uncommon on this team). It feels like this is his career year, but if the league’s scoring keeps up and the Boudreau-led Canucks maintain their play into next season? Well, his preseason ranking should be interesting. (apr22)

9. Elias Lindholm (My preseason ranking: 13^th):

Quite the run we have here, isn’t it? Miller, Trocheck, Lindholm were 11^th-13^th by my center rankings and all three panned out, to varying levels. Miller was near-elite, Trocheck was pretty good, and here comes Lindholm having a great season. At time of writing, he’s one goal and one assist short of a 40-40 season, and he’s already cleared his career-high in shots by 36 (and counting). Now, to be fair, the biggest component of Lindholm’s value on Yahoo this season was his absurd plus/minus – sitting at plus-56 as of Thursday afternoon – but even if we cut that in half, he’s still around a top-20 center, and still a good draft value. I do find it weird how my rankings absolutely loved Lindholm this year but were more muted on Gaudreau/Tkachuk. That’s something to look into this offseason. (apr22)

10. Chris Kreider (My preseason ranking: 31^st):

Let’s get this out of the way: no one saw this season coming from him. No one was projecting 50 goals, and I’d wager no one was projecting 40, either. At least not seriously. With that said, he was just inside the top-40 left wingers by Yahoo rankings, around a top-125 players, and the 32^nd-ranked left winger on Fantasy Pros. What made Kreider even more valuable for me was providing value across all categories (sense a theme here?). The high level of hits, combined with good production and solid shot rates, would make a very good fantasy value. What I did not expect is that he would score nearly as many power-play goals (25) as goals I had projected for him in total (27). I had him easily inside the top-100 picks, but no, I did not have him en route to a 50-goal season. We’ll take those, though. (apr22)

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PLAYOFF POOLS!

With playoff pools slowly starting to form, Dobber’s 2022 Interactive Playoff Draft List is now ready!

It’s fully customizable – or just go with Dobber’s picks! You can set the teams you think will reach the final and sort your draft list based on Dobber’s analysis and formula, or just go with his own personal list. It’s up to you!

Download it here.

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11. Tony DeAngelo (My preseason ranking: 22^nd):

He’s going to finish as a top-20 defenseman and he’s going to do it by playing, at most, 64 games. Without a serious injury and maybe 78 games played, he might be a top-10 defenseman. He doesn’t hit as much as Letang, but he provides some hits, and it’s a lot better than what guys like Hughes or Barrie provide. He has double-digit goals, may crack 50 points despite all the time missed, and may reach 20 PPPs as well. The plus/minus is what’s been a big help, but it shouldn’t be that big of a surprise on what was expected to be a pretty good team. Having a lock on the top PP role, while providing at least adequate peripherals, can do wonders for fantasy value. (apr22)

12. The fact that Filip Zadina is keeping his head above water while the rest of the team is drowning is a good sign for his future production. (BTW: Zadina is one of 20 names that Rick Roos has for you in his column this week as potential breakout candidates.)

The former sixth overall pick has taken a little longer to make an impact than many expected, but that’s what happens with a lot of players. We remember the ones that made an immediate impact, but the ones that take a few extra years before carving out solid NHL careers get forgotten when we look back on these things.

He’s not quite at the 200-game threshold yet, currently sitting 40-games shy, so we don’t need to be seeing an uptick yet. In fact, that kind of makes him an ideal target as a buy-low about 20 games into the season. There is help coming in Detroit, with the current NHL core growing, a healthy season from Dylan Larkin & Jakub Vrana, and some top-tier prospects like Simon Edvinsson, Jonatan Berggren, and Theodore Neiderbach all getting close. As the team gets better and Zadina’s offensive zone time climbs from under 50%, to the close to 60% that he should be seeing, there will be a lot more offensive chances for the young forward. There’s room to grow with his ice time and his underlying percentages too, but the IPP is still consistently high enough to indicate that he’s more so a driver than a passenger. (apr20)

13. It’s the time of year when players get shut down for the season, others get rested, and a lot of teams are out of things to play for, so the youngsters get some great opportunities. Case in point: Noah Cates, a 23-year-old that has played in the NCAA, the Olympics and now the NHL Flyers, all in one season. He’s more of a hitter than a shooter, but the Flyers don’t have a lot of the latter either, so he’ll get an opportunity to do both.

Felix Sandstrom, too. Another Flyer, Sandstrom has played three games thus far and has yet to win. However, he hasn’t looked terrible and the Flyers give up A LOT of volume. Basically, he’s being given an audition for next year. Martin Jones is a UFA and we could very realistically have the Flyers look to fill the hole through some internal promotion. Bringing up the 25-year-old Sandstrom would also leave the AHL starter spot free for KHL stud Ivan Fedotov to make his adjustment to North America. (apr20)

14. I really thought this was going to be the breakout year for Eeli Tolvanen. Maybe injuries played a factor at some point, but there were no sustained hot streaks for him, meaning he was mostly a non-factor in fantasy. As of Saturday, he had as many points in 73 games (22) as he did in 40 games last year. Anyone using him in Hits leagues might have been able to skate with decent value, but there has been no production. Shooting 6.7% is a huge problem here and that is the beacon of hope we need to carry into next year. With that said, the team just did not generate a lot with him on the ice, though there are some very good defensive metrics on his side. This is not a player to give up on yet. (apr19)

15. Anyone that reads my Ramblings regularly will remember my rants on some really rad rockstars; I wrote about them a lot last summer. My hope was that both Josh Norris and Drake Batherson would be top-20 at their positions in Hits leagues, and I thought Batherson had a real shot at 30 goals, 200 shots, and 150 Hits. Unfortunately, both players suffered injuries that left them out of the lineup for weeks at a time and had combined for 104 games played entering Saturday.  Norris had already cruised past 30 goals (sitting with 33) while Batherson had 15 in 42 games played, pacing for just about 30 in a full season. Norris is pacing for over 100 hits/82 games, too, while Batherson is averaging a shade over two hits per game. I feel comfortable saying these guys would have both been good calls had they stayed healthy. (apr19)

16. It really is tough what to make of Elias Pettersson and the Canucks in general. Clearly, hiring Bruce Boudreau was a big turning point for this team, and that gives the fans and team something to look forward to for next season. There may not have been a bigger beneficiary than the young center, as he went from 13 points in 27 games under the previous coach to 49 points in 48 games under Boudreau. Now, shooting more than 22.0% over those four months helps a lot, but he shot 17.6% over his first three seasons. If Second Half Petterson from 2021-22 carries it into next season, he could be a great value at the draft table. We’ll see what this team looks like in September. (apr19)

17. If there was a Conn Smythe trophy handed out during the fantasy playoffs, Robert Thomas may have been your winner this year. Entering Saturday, Thomas had 27 points in his past 15 games. The offensive explosion from Thomas combined with a tremendous Blues schedule (four games every week since March 28) have made him incredibly valuable with spring. Now Thomas isn’t a big shooter and won’t provide you much in the way of Hits, but he is displaying that rare type of offense that makes you overlook everything else. (apr18)

18. If Thomas carried your team to a fantasy title, Adam Fox may have sunk it. The Rangers defenseman picked a terrible time for his worst slump of the season, recording only three points during a nine-game stretch before a three-assist performance at the mid-week point. Fox brings up an interesting case about desperation: Would he be someone considered droppable if you absolutely needed help in the short-term to save your season? I think it would ultimately depend on a couple of things, like how far along you were in the season and if he was going to be a keeper or not. For example, if you were down with a few games left and not in a keeper situation, you could probably consider it, but otherwise you’d have to hope he regains his form. (apr18)

19. Ryan Hartman has 33 goals on the season. You probably expected him to reach that number in points for the season, not goals. Hartman has scored six goals over his last seven games, which includes a pair of two-goal performances, one of them during his “flipping the bird at Evander Kane” game last Tuesday. (apr17)

20. Maybe someone who watches the Rangers more than I do can shed some light on this, but it doesn’t seem right that Alexis Lafreniere is not used on a scoring line more often. Maybe he hasn’t made the most of his opportunities, or maybe the Rangers are in enough of a win-now mode that they can’t afford to wait on him to develop. Either way, the talent is there, so it might simply be a matter of being patient. Submitting a buy-low offer to an impatient Lafreniere keeper owner might be something to consider. (apr17)

21. For the first time since the 2015-16 season, Kyle Okposo has at least 20 goals in a season. That was Okposo’s last season as an Islander before signing a lucrative free agent contract with Buffalo. Who knew it would take him that long to reach 20 goals as a Sabre? (apr17)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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