There has been a lot of reports and rumouring around the health of Robin Lehner for several days now, and the team finally acknowledged what was first reported by Emily Kaplan at ESPN: he is going to be having some surgery and is done for the season:

The Golden Knoghts have announced Robin Lehner will undergo season-ending surgery.

He battled through a serious shoulder and leg injury this season, playing as long as he could to help the push for the playoffs.

— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) April 25, 2022

It does seem as if Vegas's season is effectively over, so this makes sense, but what a tough year for him and the team. This team is going to have to shed some salary this summer as they're losing Reilly Smith but need three more forwards and are already over the cap. There is also just one year left on Max Pacioretty's current contract. We'll have to wait and see what happens but there is movement coming somewhere.

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An important update on the Carolina goaltending front:

GOOD NEWS: Not only is Antti Raanta expected to play back up tomorrow, but sources say they are optimistic that Freddie Andersen will return for the playoffs. https://t.co/TEWl5c35ac

— Sara Civ (@SaraCivian) April 25, 2022

Having both goalies out for the start of the postseason would have been a huge issue. Potentially having both of them back? It changes a lot of the outlook for this team.

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We have reached the final week of the regular season in what felt like an absolute marathon season. By the time that Winnipeg game is played on May 1^st, we won't be far off from a 7-month regular season. It's obvious what the reason was and let's he honest, we have no idea what next season will bring, and it could be more of the same. It's unlikely to be the norm but expecting anything is probably the only way to operate here.

To that end, I've gotten more on board with expanded playoffs. It would accomplish two things: give similar fringe teams a shot at the postseason while giving the elite teams some rest. Whether the rest is actually a good thing or not is up for debate, but I have no problem with, say, Dallas and Vegas engaging in a 3-game series to see who gets to the postseason. It's not because I think good teams are routinely getting screwed out of playoff spots – honestly, has anyone watched Potential Playoff Team Columbus Blue Jackets at any point this year – but it's a good way to generate revenue, keep some teams and fans engaged all year, and hopefully reward the elite rosters. It's not for some altruistic notion of fairness.

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For anyone who missed my Ramblings last week, I talked about players that I got right and that I got wrong in my preseason predictions/projections. It's just an exercise in trying to learn lessons and applying those lessons to next season.

To that end, I just wanted to discuss a handful of players who've opened some eyes this year. There have been some huge performances from players we do not think of as elite, particularly in the second half, and it's worth reviewing them.

Robert Thomas

My entire concern with Thomas was getting the ice time and teammates to have the season he is currently enjoying. The worry was that he'd skate 15-16 minutes a night on the third line with secondary PP minutes and I projected him as such. The fact that he added five minutes to his TOI per game compared to last year is patently absurd. To do it on a team that generally spreads its ice time out, too? Truly one of the weirdest, but most welcome, jumps that I can remember.

This season didn't come out of nowhere. He was injured last season, but the year before he had great playmaking numbers on a per-minute basis (was playing around 14:30 a night). His playmaking numbers are excellent-to-elite this year, too (from Corey Sznajder's Patreon):

As has been the case basically his entire NHL career, his playmaking numbers are good-to-elite and are getting better in a lot of areas. What this team can do moving forward is a fair question, but Thomas is one of the elite young playmakers in the league. Whether he can produce across the board for fantasy owners is another question entirely. He could be a tremendous real-life player but if he's producing 15 goals, fewer than two shots per game, and no hits, then it's a real issue for fantasy purposes.

Matthew Boldy

Cards on the table here: Marco Rossi, and not Matthew Boldy, was on my radar for the Wild this year, thinking they needed a centre way more than winger. All that didn't matter and he has posted 38 points in 44 games since being called up in early January. It's a wonder if he had been there all season if he's not the Calder Trophy winner, but I digress.

Boldy isn't the opposite of Thomas, but he's not far off. This is a guy who is below-average by shot assists and some transition stats, areas where Thomas excels. On the flipside, Boldy's shooting metrics – shot rate, individual scoring chance rate, scoring chance generation – are all great. Now, we're talking small samples here so it's not near as definitive as Thomas, who basically has three seasons of good-to-excellent playmaking data at this point. It's certainly a step in the right direction, and they'll need both him and Rossi to be elite on their ELCs for them to continue to be Cup threats after this season.

Evan Bouchard

My concerns with Bouchard, as explained in the offseason, were a mix of Edmonton management bringing in a bunch of blue liners and his over-reliance on his shot rate. The former could lead to less ice time and the latter could lead to one-and-done rushes which makes it hard for the team to sustain offensive pressure. He is still probably shooting too much from the blue line, as evidenced in his Hockey Viz offensive zone chart, but he is close to 20 minutes a night on the season. I was very worried he'd be closer to 17-18 minutes each time out. It is worth noting he was near 21:30 a game up until Christmas, but has been skating just 17:15 a night under Jay Woodcroft. The TOI concerns had reason, just not all season long.

Regardless, via Sznajder's data again, his zone entry and exit percentages are excellent, his scoring chance creation for his forwards is very good, and he's even been good at defending his team's blue line. There is still work to do defensively once the puck gets below the hashmarks, but his game has grown significantly at both ends. He should be in the running for top PP minutes next year, even with Tyson Barrie still around.

Seth Jarvis

From Hockey Viz, below is an idea of how good Jarvis has been this year driving offence and even in his own end. Positive numbers in the offensive zone are good (above average) and negative numbers in the defensive zone are also good (above average). This is his season by expected goals driven and against at 5v5:

While some might want to attribute that to Sebastian Aho, this is isolated impacts (meaning approximating only Jarvis's impact at either end). And he has played nearly as much away from Aho (393 minutes) as with him (402).  The reality is, he had a bad quarter of the season from late-January to mid-March with three points in 18 games. Had he been able to keep producing all year, he's in the running for Rookie of the Year.

When I talk about Denis Gurianov, I talk about how much he seems to love to shoot the puck. I think the same about Jarvis, and it appears he has more skills besides that great shot. The future is very bright here.

Mason Marchment

There are probably a half-dozen Panthers players we could put here but 47 points in 54 games for a guy who was traded two years ago for Denis Malgin is hard to pass up.

He is a lot older than Jarvis, but his play driving is similarly excellent, and he's probably much defensively. All that said, as far as I know, he wasn't on anyone's radar in the preseason as a guy who could put up 60 points this year, which he may have had he stayed healthy. What makes him appealing in fantasy is even if he falls off a bit next year and paces for about 50 points, he loves to shoot and hit, and can put up two of those each game. That level of peripheral production can really complement even just a 20-goal, 50-point season.

The interesting part here is he's old enough to be a UFA. The Panthers don't have much offseason cap space, largely thanks to the Keith Yandle buyout. It'll be an interesting summer for Marchment, because I want to see what he can do somewhere with a good top-6 but where he'll get a crack at PP time. Maybe that's nowhere, but we'll see.

Jamie Drysdale

A 30-point season as a teenage defenceman on a bad team is nothing to dismiss. There is concern about his actual in-zone defence, but that could be said of almost any 19-year-old blue liner that steps into the league. There are some good indicators in that regard – carries against percentage-wise isn't terribly below average and he's good at denying the blue line – but there is just more work to come here.

Where Drysdale showed out this year was in transition, being very good at gaining the offensive zone with control, either by himself or dishing to a teammate. The team was better at driving expected goals at 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 with Drysdale on the ice, again a good sign for the young rearguard.

One season won't make a defenceman, but this is a good start. The team needs to surround him, Terry, and Zegras with way, way more talent, but these three are a good core to begin with.  

Jack Hughes

Not much to dig into here. Hughes was a burgeoning superstar and the only thing holding him back was his shot. Well, shooting nearly 16% will help in this regard, and if he's even average by finishing ability, he's going to have 30-goal, 80-point seasons like clockwork. The team is growing around him and they should be able to add more skill this offseason, between a high first-round pick and over $20M in cap space. They have to sign guys like Jesper Bratt and Pavel Zacha, but it'll leave them lots of room for a big splash like Filip Forsberg or Johnny Gaudreau, should they decide to.  

Valeri Nichushkin

Here we have another UFA and another team that may not be able to sign him. Colorado has Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Kadri, Manson, and Kuemper all UFAs, Artturi Lehkonen and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel as RFAs, and they're a year away from having to pay MacKinnon his monster contract. They already have over $30M tied up in Rantanen, Landeskog, Makar, and Toews for the foreseeable future, so adding $10M+ from MacKinnon will tie up half their cap in five players. Five excellent players, but there are still limits. I wonder if Lehkonen wasn't acquired to be the Nichushkin replacement next year.

Regardless, the Russian winger has shown the offensive ability he oozed as a younger player while maintaining stellar defence. For comparison to another elite winger in the league:

It isn't just a one-year thing, either, as the play-driving was just as strong during the 2021 COVID season. More ice time has led to more shots and with some PP time in the second half, his production has been very good. Keep an eye on where he lands in the summer, if he indeed does leave. This is someone I would like to see in Calgary as a Gaudreau replacement or maybe in New Jersey alongside Jack Hughes.

Noah Hanifin

By most any measure we can think of – ice time, production, defence – this was Hanifin's best season of his career. Is it a coincidence that it was his first season under Darryl Sutter, and guys like Oliver Kylington and Andrew Mangiapane also had the best seasons they've had by most measures as well? I've long thought of Sutter was one of the top handful of coaches in the league, and this season has only made that opinion more cemented in my brain.

Regardless, Hanifin is pushing 50 points on the season and that's a great year. Let's just be cautious about projecting next season until we see what the Flames do with their roster. Not to mention Rasmus Andersson continues to chew all the power play ice time. Should this team take a step back scoring-wise next season with the departure of one of Gaudreau/Tkachuk, Hanifin doesn't have much wiggle room because it's only very recently he's been getting top PP minutes. He's not a lock to keep the role.