Ramblings – Season Rundowns, Playoff Previews, Fantasy Sendoffs… (May 2)

Dobber

2022-05-02

That's a wrap on the 2021-22 NHL season!

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Now released – my 16th annual playoff draft list. This spreadsheet has the ability to pick the winners each round, and adjust the projected games accordingly. I have set projected points-per-game average based on this season and prior playoff performance for relevant playoff players, as well as how they did over the past month. Projected games are adjusted based on how far you think each team will go (and I factor in player injuries as well). Then, if you have MS Excel, simply click one of the buttons and sort your list by team, by player name or by points projection (don't have Excel? It still works on Google Sheets, just the buttons don't work so you have sort manually). What I love about this setup is that you can run several scenarios and print off each for your draft. Then, based on how the draft is going, you can then work off the best list that is left. For example, if one list is heavy on the Lightning, but you pick 10th and four Tampa players are taken before it even gets to you – then you may want to toss that list and roll with another one. IMMEDIATE DOWNLOAD, no waiting.

The spreadsheet also has my own list in there as an alternative

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Dustin Brown and Ryan Getzlaf have played their last NHL games (regular season, in the case of Brown, who will still see postseason contests). Ditto for Eric Staal, whom we wondered if he would sign a contract late – even after the Olympics. That didn't happen. All three were drafted in 2003 NHL Entry Draft, one of the best drafts in history.

Still playing from the draft: Marc-Andre Fleury, Ryan Suter, Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, Brent Burns, Corey Perry, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, possibly Shea Weber but doubtful, Brad Richardson, Joe Pavelski, and Jaroslav Halak. I suspect we've seen the last of Eriksson, Weber, Richardson and Halak. So that whittles the list down to eight. I've heard nothing about Fleury and his plans for after the Wild getting eliminated (or winning the Cup).

Staal's best season was 2005-06 when he shocked everyone with his first and only 100-point season, hitting the mark exactly. It was shocking because in his rookie season he managed just 31 points. Then, after a full (lockout) season in the AHL, he returned to the NHL as a 20-year-old and notched 100. After that, he never topped more than 82 although in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 he had 53 in 48. If you pro-rate that season, Staal had eight consecutive seasons of at least 70 points – in dynasties, that's gold. To have someone you can count on like that year in and year out. Staal had another shocking performance still up his sleeve though. After he declined to 61, 54 and then 39 points it seemed silly to expect a 60-point campaign ever again. But he worked hard in the summer of 2016 to get himself into the best shape of his life, started fresh with the Wild, and rattled off seasons of 65 and then 76 points. In all, he finished with 441 goals and 1034 points in his 1293-game NHL career. He won the OHL Top Prospect Award in 2003, the Stanley Cup in 2006, and Olympic Gold in 2010.

Ryan Getzlaf's trajectory was a dynasty-leaguer's dream. He blew up the WHL after he was drafted, then he dominated the AHL for 17 whole games before getting called up to the NHL for good. And then his points went from 39 to 58 to 82 to 91. Thank you for making it easy for us – if only all prospects rose that quickly and steadily. His best fantasy season was in 2008-09 when he tallied 91 points, 121 PIM, 134 Hits, 37 PPPts and his 50.2% FOW was his best number in the first eight years that he played. In the playoffs he ended with 120 points in 125 contests. He was a Cup Champion in 2007 and finishes his career with 282 goals and 1019 points (960 PIM!) in 1157 games.

Dustin Brown wasn't quite as productive as the latter two, but he deserves a fantasy rundown nonetheless. His best fantasy season was 2007-08 when he had 32 goals, 59 points, 55 PIM and 311 Hits. Yes, he had 61 points in 2017-18, but in terms of the entire package – 2007-08 was the year. Seven-time 50-point player and 20-goal scorer, nine if you were to pro-rate the shortened seasons. He was a two-time Stanley Cup Champion (doubtful he gets three, but hey – he’s still in it) and in 2014 won the Mark Messier Leadership Award.

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This first round will mark just the third time in NHL history that two defensemen with 80+ points in the regular season meet in a playoff series. Of course that is Roman Josi (NSH) and Cale Makar (COL). The other two: Paul Coffey (EDM) vs. Denis Potvin (NYI) in 1984; Denis Potvin (NYI) vs. Larry Robinson (MTL) in 1977.

Interesting tidbits for the playoffs:

  • Over the past 10 seasons, a team who has won the season series vs. an opponent has a 65-46 series record when facing that same opponent in the ensuing Stanley Cup Playoffs. BUT in the Cup Final or Conference Finals, that record is 6-12.
  • Home ice advantage…is not really an advantage. In the last 10 postseasons, just 51.1% of home teams took the series.
  • Home ice in Game 7? The win/loss record for the home team is…22-22. Home ice means nothing!

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Other playoff quick-thoughts:

  • Charlie McAvoy was great last postseason, compiling 12 points in just 11 games.
  • Teuvo Teravainen not so much. Just six in 11. And Nino Niederreiter had just one point. Not that one playoff run has any determination on future performance, it's just worth keeping in mind that the unexpected can happen over such a small sample size of 10 or 15 games.
  • Nazem Kadri has been suspended in the first round of three of the last four playoffs. He was also suspended for the final four regular season games of 2015-16. AND in 2014-15 he was suspended in late March for four games. So the guy has been suspended in March or April SIX times out of seven years!
  • When Kadri is out, Andre Burakovsky was very productive this season, posting 15 points in 11 games.
  • Keep an eye on the St. Louis and Minnesota players. In your playoff hockey draft, I get the feeling that one of those teams will have their players go undrafted (other than their top one or two guys) until middle rounds. I always build my pool roster around two teams, one from each Conference. But then in the final three rounds I take the top players on a neglected team. A third team. That strategy has paid off for me at least a quarter of the time. Upsets happen! Maybe it won't be one of those teams. Maybe it will be Los Angeles or Dallas. Or Washington?
  • Willy Nylander led Toronto in scoring last postseason.

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Interesting tidbits from the season:

  • it was the highest-scoring season in 26 years at 6.3 goals-per-game.
  • Florida scored 340 goals, the most for a team since Pittsburgh in 1995-96 (362)
  • 78% of the goals scored this year were at even strength. That's the highest percentage in 50 years and second most in the expansion era behind 79% in 1972-73
  • 102 hat tricks were scored by 84 different players. That's the most in 29 years. And only once in history did more players score a hat trick. That was in 86 players did it in 1981-82.
  • 42% of games were won by a team that trailed. Only two seasons in history had a higher percentage: 46% in 1920-21 and 44% in 2005-06.

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NHL Draft Lottery Odds (May 10)

Draft Lottery Participants (Fewest Points to Most)Odds
Montreal Canadiens18.5%
Arizona Coyotes13.5%
Seattle Kraken11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers9.5%
New Jersey Devils8.5%
Chicago Blackhawks *7.5%
Ottawa Senators6.5%
Detroit Red Wings6.0%
Buffalo Sabres5.0%
Anaheim Ducks3.5%
San Jose Sharks3.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets2.5%
New York Islanders2.0%
Winnipeg Jets1.5%
Vancouver Canucks0.5%
Vegas Golden Knights **0.5%

* Under the terms of a July 23, 2021 trade, Chicago will transfer its 1st-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft to Columbus if it is not a top 2 pick. If it becomes a top 2 pick as a result of the Draft Lottery, Chicago will retain the pick and instead transfer to Columbus its 1st-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft.

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** Under the terms of a Nov. 4, 2021 trade, Vegas will transfer its 1st-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft to Buffalo if it is not a top 10 pick. If it becomes a top 10 pick as a result of the Draft Lottery, Vegas will retain the pick and instead transfer to Buffalo its 1st-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft.

The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery Draw, based on which team wins the 1st Lottery Draw. The 14 teams not selected in the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery will be assigned the remaining 2022 NHL Draft selections (among 1 through 16 in the first round), in inverse order of regular-season points.

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The last game of the season happened Sunday thanks to a contest that had to be rescheduled between Winnipeg and Seattle. It was interesting to see Mason Appleton getting tried on the line with P-L Dubois and Kyle Connor. Appleton's return to Winnipeg saw him getting buried on a checking line, but he picked up a point in each of his last two. Curious to see how the roster shakes out in the fall and where he'll fit in. Now 26, he's finally passed the 200-game threshold, making next season his BT one. Meaning, if he's going to get 45 or 50 points ever in his career, it would be next season. I'm not holding my breath on that one, I'm just saying that he falls into that category.

I still don't know the answer to this one:

I'm stumped. Unless he was playing hurt and they had to limit his ice time. But if they needed a goal, which they did, why not play him? Here's another guess: If they tied the game, they would tie Philadelphia in the standings and if they did that – they would be ranked higher, based on wins. Meaning their lottery odds drop from 11.5% to 9.5%.

Jordan Eberle was a healthy scratch. That lends more credence to the above theory. Did they tank over 2%?

Matty Beniers had points in every game he has played except one. Nine points in his 10 games. All of his ES points (five) were alongside Eberle and Ryan Donato. Donato, who has an expiring (minimum salary) contract, was looking on the fringe of getting another one. But his 10 points in 19 games at the end turned out to be his most productive quarter of the season. He has probably earned another contract, and if he gets lucky and holds onto that spot alongside Beniers, he could surprise.

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The media is buzzing about Mark Scheifele's statements in a recent interview. Basically he said that he plans to speak with the Jets' brass about their plans for the future, what they will be doing to be competitive, and then he will determine if he wants to be a part of that. Scheifele is signed with the Jets for next year and the year after, but he is the stubborn type – if he decides he doesn't want to play for them, I can see him holding out until they trade him.

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I released my Box Pools sheets, which are free. Yes, I set the players into boxes so you can run a pool at the office or with your friends. Just download it and it's ready to print. And I also set up the DobberHockey annual NHL Bracket Challenge. Download the former and get the link to the latter here.

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See you next Monday. Good luck in your playoff pools.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-05-02 at 18:24

    Is Dustin Brown not playing in the playoffs?

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
20.1 MIKKO RANTANEN NATHAN MACKINNON JOEL KIVIRANTA
16.3 LOGAN O'CONNOR CASEY MITTELSTADT IVAN IVAN
14.0 NIKITA PRISHCHEPOV NIKOLAI KOVALENKO PARKER KELLY

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