Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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The 2022 NHL Entry Draft is just around the corner – this upcoming Thursday – meaning there is no time like the present to get caught up on all the prospects fantasy owners need to know. Head on over to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy of the 2022 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report. In conjunction with our great Dobber Prospects team, the Boss and the DP crew put together over 500 prospect profiles. There are estimated NHL arrival times, fantasy upside, depth charts and a whole lot more. Help support the entire Dobber crew and get up to speed on the young guns that fantasy owners need to know!

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1. The first major trade to go down this offseason was Kevin Fiala moving to LA. I broke down the fantasy impact here. As I mentioned in the article, Fiala will be given all the opportunity in the world to be a top-line scorer on the Kings. He didn’t necessarily have that in Minnesota, as Kirill Kaprizov is the offensive engine of that team and plays the same position. However, Fiala did receive sheltered offensive minutes in Minny (56 OZ% in 2021-22, over 50 OZ% throughout his career), which placed him in situations where he could score.

In addition, the Kings’ top two centers already play a more defensive role based on their two-way abilities. Anze Kopitar has been a sub-50 OZ% over his last five seasons (47.6 OZ% in 2021-22), while Phillip Danault has been a sub-50 OZ% player throughout his career (49.6 OZ% in 2021-22). That’s going to naturally position Fiala into fewer scoring opportunities. So I’m not quite there on this trade helping Fiala tremendously from where he is now. 85 points is a damn good season and may already be representative of his upside.

If you are counting on Fiala next season, you may want to lower your expectations during the first half of the season (but raise them for the second half!).

2020-21: 1^st half – 11 PTS in 22 GP; 2^nd half – 29 PTS in 28 GP
2021-22: 1^st half – 29 PTS in 38 GP; 2^nd half – 56 PTS in 44 GP (july1)

2. The Vancouver Canucks took care of some offseason business with one player while possibly hinting at which direction they will go with another player, signing RFA Brock Boeser to a three-year contract worth $6.65 million per season. This is below the $7.5 million qualifying offer that the Canucks would have had to grant Boeser if they wanted to keep him but could not agree to a new contract. The Canucks now have an important top-6 winger under contract for three more years, so this is a good piece of business from new Canucks management.

Boeser had a down season by his standards, as he saw his points-per-game average dip from 0.88 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 0.65 PTS/GP (46 PTS in 71 GP) in 2021-22. He (like many Canucks) experienced the Bruce Boudreau bump, scoring 19 goals and 36 points in his last 49 games. Boeser had a difficult season personally because he was also dealing with the illness of his father, who recently passed away. His signing should also help Elias Pettersson, who has clicked with Boeser in the past and also improved under Boudreau. (july2)

3. By locking up Boeser, the Canucks appear one step closer to trading J.T. Miller this offseason. Miller’s value may never be higher than it is now coming off a 99-point season as a top-10 scorer. With one season remaining on Miller’s contract (at a very affordable $5.25 million), the Canucks cannot afford to lose Miller for nothing, considering they could use immediate upgrades on the right side of the defense and also have a relatively bare prospect base (how it got to that point is a rant for another day). If Kevin Fiala can return a first-round pick and defense prospect Brock Faber, then Miller should return at least the same. Although Jim Rutherford has stated that they will try to re-sign Miller, my money is on the Canucks trading him.

The Canucks also signed Jack Rathbone to a one-way contract. Rathbone is the Canucks’ top prospect, and he should be in the NHL full-time this coming season. He showed tons of promise in the AHL last season with 40 points in 39 games, which was fifth among AHL defensemen in points per game (1.03). The left side of the Canucks defense appears to be in good hands with Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Rathbone. For more on Rathbone, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (july2)

4. The Lightning really liked what they saw in Nick Paul after acquiring him at the deadline, signing him to a seven-year contract with a $3.15 million AAV. Paul also made some noise in fantasy leagues late in the season, recording 14 points in 21 regular-season games with the Lightning. Although his scoring declined in the playoffs (9 PTS in 23 GP), Paul still stood out for his ability to make key plays for the Bolts in their run to the Cup. In particular, Leafs fans are still trying to forget about the pair of goals Paul scored in Game 7 of their first-round series. The cap hit isn’t bad for the Lightning, but a seven-year term could be an issue down the road (Paul will be 34 when the contract expires). (july2)

5. Some coaching news and hires:

– A bit of a surprise given the timing with no GM in place, but Bob Boughner is out as the Sharks coach. You can read more about it in the Fantasy Take that I wrote on Friday morning. It’s mostly a “what’s really wrong with the Sharks”, but there’s a couple of fantasy items worth your attention.

– The Jim Montgomery hiring in Boston was officially announced on Friday. Here’s another Fantasy Take, where I state that I believe this is a solid hiring for the Bruins.

– Although not officially announced, the Jets are expected to hire Rick Bowness to be their new head coach. News had surfaced that Rick Tocchet would be the favorite, but it sounds like Bowness will be the guy. (july2)

– Not only did we learn who will be the Red Wings’ new coach, but we also learned the identity of the guy often standing next to Jon Cooper throughout the playoffs. The Wings have hired former Lightning assistant coach Derek Lalonde to be their new head coach. The obvious connection here is Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman, who was once the Lightning GM. Lalonde does not have any NHL coaching experience aside from filling in for Cooper when the Lightning bench boss was in COVID protocol. However, he is a former goalie, and that position was a problem for the Red Wings last season. I explained that further as a reason that the Wings decided to move on from Blashill [Fantasy Take: Red Wings Not Renewing Blashill]. (july1)

– Chicago announced that Luke Richardson will be the team's next head coach. Dobber had his take on this published here. (june28)

6. If Mike Smith decides to retire, at least one over-40 goalie will still be patrolling an NHL net next season. The Buffalo Sabres have brought back Craig Anderson for one more season at a cap hit of $1.5 million.

Aside from maybe Arizona goalies, Anderson was at the bottom of fantasy draft lists last season and rightfully so because of his age and the fact that he plays for the Sabres. However, his 45.2 QS% was better than that of Carter Hart, Alex Nedeljkovic, Robin Lehner, and Linus Ullmark. Granted, all except maybe Ullmark had notably rough seasons, but they were all drafted in a lot more leagues. Anderson performed admirably given the situation, and he may not be that terrible an option on a Sabres team that appears to be slowly but surely on the rise.  

I’d have to assume Anderson battles Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for starts next season if the latter plays in the NHL. However, I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Sabres sign another goalie during free agency, since this definitely isn’t the league’s strongest tandem. Because of injuries, the Sabres burned through six goalies last season, so their goalie situation is still a little difficult to decipher. (july1)

7. The Dallas Stars have given Scott Wedgewood a two-year contract extension. At age 29, Wedgewood played his highest number of NHL games (37) in a season split between Arizona, New Jersey, and Dallas. As Dobber keeps saying, goalies take a while.

With Jake Oettinger now cemented as the full-time starter, Wedgewood should at least compete with Anton Khudobin for the backup job and provide the Stars with organizational goaltending depth. Khudobin was sent to the AHL last season and underwent hip surgery in March, so I would think the Stars are exploring buyout or trade options for Khudobin and his $3.33 million contract, which has one year remaining. (july1)

8. I don’t know exactly how long Anthony Duclair will need to recover from his Achilles tendon injury, but it sounds like it could cut into the start of the regular season. Duclair had just recorded career bests in both goals (31) and assists (27), which was an awesome return for me in the one league where I drafted him 252^nd overall last season. In the near term, the injury could free up some cap space for the Panthers to make a stronger pitch at Claude Giroux, Mason Marchment, and Ben Chiarot, all of whom are UFAs. (july1)

9. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Lightning are reportedly shopping Ryan McDonagh. Back when I was forecasting who Seattle might draft, I thought the Bolts might leave McDonagh and his $6.75 million cap hit unprotected. They decided not to and the Kraken selected Yanni Gourde instead. Obviously this is a champagne problem and the Lightning would rather not lose McDonagh, but it speaks to the cost of keeping the elite pieces together. Friedman said the Bolts are also trying to retain Ondrej Palat and Jan Rutta. (july1)

10. And according to Mark Spector, Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for a fresh start elsewhere, and the Oilers seem willing to oblige. Puljujarvi had a career-best 0.55 PTS/GP (36 PTS in 65 GP), and early in the season it had looked like he had finally arrived (23 PTS in 28 GP). Yet Pool Party sprung a leak following a bout with COVID just before Christmas (4 G and 13 PTS in 37 GP), and he seemed invisible in the playoffs (3 PTS in 16 GP).

If you apply the Breakout Threshold theory to the 6-4 Puljujarvi, he will still need about another 140 games before he starts to hit his stride. Although both player and team may have simply reached the point of no return, another team might benefit from the Oilers’ lack of patience. Of course, there’s the Valeri Nichushkin comparison, as the Avalanche forward finally found his game in a season where he reached 400 games. The downside for those of you waiting on Puljujarvi is that he has already been given his reps with Connor McDavid, and he may never receive another opportunity like that with another team. (july1)

11. So, after a few of first- and second-round exits with the current core, the Colorado Avalanche ran roughshod over the postseason, going 16-4 and lifting the franchise’s first Stanley Cup in over 20 years. It was a dominant nine-month performance from the Avs, who finished second in the regular season in points percentage (behind Florida).

Therefore, it's time to look ahead to the fantasy 2022-23 season and we’re going to finish off our season’s recaps today. In my Ramblings, I have been reviewing the season of each playoff team following elimination and Colorado will cap this off. We are going to look at the season’s performance from some of their key players, the work the management team has to do in the offseason, what this team could look like for next season, and what it means in the fantasy game. It's too long to slide in here, so follow the link regarding the Avs' side of things… (june30)

As for the Lightning, I perused their roster here… (june28)

12. BTW, Cale Makar had my vote for the Smyth for sure. Like I said in the earlier Ramblings setting up McDavid vs. MacKinnon – I said it should have been dubbed McDavid vs. Makar, because Makar is the McDavid of defensemen.

Makar, 23, claimed the Conn Smythe Trophy five days after receiving his first Norris Trophy. He became the third player in NHL history to win both awards in the same season, following Bobby Orr in 1970 (age 22) and 1972 (age 24) along with Nicklas Lidstrom in 2002 (age 32).

Makar is also the first player – ever – to win the Hobey Baker, the Calder, the Norris, the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe. Don’t forget: he’s only 23. (june27)

13. A lot of us here are the more involved fantasy owners, and as a result we end up organizing leagues for our friends, taking over vacant commissioner spots, and generally helping with the running of leagues. As a commissioner of many different leagues of various shapes and sizes over the years, I thought it might be helpful to share a few lessons and tips I have picked up along the way. The smoother that the season goes from an admin and commissioner perspective, the more fun it can be, and the more time you have to spend researching players instead of debating rules. Follow the link for the breakdown… (june29)

14. Timothy Liljegren has signed a two-year extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs, locking him up for his age-23 and age-24 seasons. The AAV is $1.4 million. Liljegren is coming off his first full-ish season with the Leafs, totalling 23 points in 61 games.

For the fantasy game, there could be some very good multi-cat value here. He put up 147 hits+blocks in those 61 contests, skating under 16:30 a night. If he can add a 2-3 minutes per night in ice time, then 200 hits+blocks are in play for him, with good point production because of the team’s offensive environment. His upside is capped without Morgan Rielly‘s PP minutes, but that doesn’t mean he’s irrelevant, even in mid-sized multi-cat leagues. (june28)

15. Last week, I asked readers for a few players that you’d like my thoughts on. I wasn’t prepared for so many suggestions. So, this week, the entire Monday Ramblings went toward this (apart from a bit on the SC game) – I'll list a few of them below. Which player do you most want to figure out for next season and beyond?

Let's start with Kirby Dach. The thing with Dach is that he is a 6-4 player, but because he was the third-overall pick (in 2019) fantasy owners expect him to pop right away. The thing is – so does the team. And then both fantasy owners and the Blackhawks start to sour on him when he’s not producing.

He started out last year playing with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. He tumbled down the lineup as each month passed, and his PPTOI declined each quarter. They expect the world from him, but it takes time. A lot of these 6-4 players were 5-10 just four or five years ago. That takes a ton of adjustment. And they are also used to having their way with the opposition back in junior hockey, and that also takes adjustment.

This is why I preach that big players such as Dach need 400 NHL games before breaking out. He’s at 152. That means three more seasons of mediocrity before his breakout in 2025-26. As a high draft pick, perhaps his upside and skill allow him to adapt a little sooner, but I would be surprised if he has that breakout before 2024-25.

16. Alex Tuch – Another big man and another player fantasy owners are impatient about. Tuch is 6-4 and has shown flashes of what he will do. I think he has his breakout in 2023-24, which is the season after this one. However, with Tuch there are serious injury concerns and I question if he can ever play even a 75-game season. If he can put the injuries behind though, he’s close. Much closer than Dach. His career high is 52 and say he gets 55 this season and then 65 when he breaks out (both in 70 games).

17. Vince Dunn – What I like about Dunn is how he trended last season. His ice time in the second half averaged nearly two full minutes per game more and his PP time tweaked upward a bit as well. He had 16 points in the first half and 19 in the second. The power play is his to run this season, but because Seattle will still struggle to score. They finished 29^th in scoring last season, but they topped last-place Arizona by just nine goals and frankly I don’t see how Seattle doesn’t fall to last place in the year ahead. So how many points can Dunn possibly get? Not 50, that’s for sure.

18. Cam York – I really liked York’s second stint with the Flyers when he posted seven points in his last 17 games before suffering a hairline fracture in his foot blocking a shot. But he has a lot of competition ahead of him on the depth chart (Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim also shoot left). I think he makes the team and posts modest points (around 30). But the 21-year-old should build on this quickly.

19. Owen Tippett – A natural goal scorer but the pucks need to start going in for him. With Bobby Brink now in the mix, Tippett needs to start making his presence felt on the scoreboard. He’ll need to do it from a depth line because I don’t see him being handed a top-six spot with the depth chart as it is now. The Joel Farabee surgery helps, and if the Flyers trade James van Riemsdyk then I can re-write this entire blurb. But for now, Tippett is buried and will struggle to score 20 this year. I rate him a ‘sell’.

20. Pavel Zacha – Zacha failed to build on the promise that he showed in 2020-21 when he posted an 82-game pace of 57 points. But I still like him. The Devils rushed him into the NHL a year or two too soon. He’s a bigger player (6-3, 210 pounds) drafted sixth overall in 2015. He’s played 386 career NHL games, so his BT is actually in 14 games. That’s right, this season will be his breakout according to our model. He’s a blossoming analytics darling who drives possession and creates more chances than he gives up. He saw ice time with either Jesper Bratt or Nico Hischier last season so the Devils still have faith in him.

21. Kaapo Kakko – The impatience with this player is nearly as bad as it is with Jesse Puljujarvi. If Kakko goes out and finishes next season with 38 points in 80 games I still won’t give up on him. In fact, I would be happy because he played an entire season. Kakko needs time. Give him at least two more years. I rate him a heavy ‘buy’ because his owners have soured on him. I don’t expect much from Kakko this season, but in 2023-24 I think his time will come.

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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