Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Michael Amato and Dobber

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For anyone who wants to read on the individual impacts from the recent trades and free agent signings, we covered a couple dozen moves over the last week or so here.

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1. Things are looking up again for Elias Lindholm. Despite losing 2/3s of arguably the best line in hockey last year, getting Jonathan Huberdeau and his 85 assists from a season ago as a consolation prize isn’t too bad. A top unit of Huberdeau/Lindholm/Tyler Toffoli should still be very fruitful for the Calgary Flames and there’s a decent chance Lindholm is once again a 40-goal scorer. What once looked like a disaster for Lindholm’s fantasy value suddenly has a lifeline. (july23)

2. You could make an argument that no other playing benefited more from another last year than Matthew Tkachuk, as he had a career year and scored 100 of his 104 points playing with Gaudreau. I think it’s reasonable to expect Tkachuk will probably face at least a 25-point dropoff in production, probably sliding him down draft boards. He may have even gone as high as the second round if Gaudreau had re-upped when you also factor in Tkachuk’s shots and hits production, but now I’d say you’re looking at closer to fourth and fifth round value.

3. Now that Patrik Laine has re-upped with the Columbus Blue Jackets, is 50 goals too unreasonable of an expectation for him next season? Playing with Johnny Gaudreau, who notched 75 assists and was the league leader in even strength points last year, is only going to make Laine that much more formidable. With all due respect to Laine’s past teammates, Gaudreau is probably the best talent he’s ever played with and Laine’s fantasy value is officially at an all-time high.

It's also going to be very interesting to see who gets the coveted center spot in-between the two. Jack Roslovic may have the inside track on the role, closing the 2021-22 campaign with 10 goals and 13 points in his final 14 games. Keep an eye on notes from Blue Jackets training camp, as whoever gets that slot is someone you’ll want on your squad. (july23)

4. In order to clear cap space for the Gaudreau and Laine signings, the Blue Jackets shipped Oliver Bjorkstrand to the Seattle Kraken on the cheap. Bjorkstrand was a very useful 25-30-goal scorer on some thin Columbus forward groups, so it remains to be seen how he’ll do in the Pacific Northwest. The Kraken are much thinner but they suddenly have a fun forward group. Matty Beniers, Andre Burakovsky, Jared McCann, and Shane Wright to go along with Bjorkstrand will give them a few more draftable players up front than they did a year ago. (july23)

5. Is Connor Hellebuyck still a top-10 goalie in drafts this year? At this point you’d have to say no. The Winnipeg Jets netminder is coming off arguably the worst statistical season of his career and the team seems poised to take a step back next season. Had Barry Trotz taken the Jets job things may have been different, but now with a few significant players potentially being on the trade block, it seems unlikely Winnipeg will be more competitive than they were a year ago.

Factor in the emergence of goalies like Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin and Jake Oettinger, and you’d be hard-pressed to make an argument that Hellebuyck should be one of the first 10 goalies taken in 2022-23. (july23)

6. The Montreal Canadiens shipping Jeff Petry to the Pittsburgh Penguins last weekend caught my eye because of how it may impact Cole Caufield. I know Petry had a terrible season last year and didn’t produce much at all with the man advantage, but his departure leaves the team without anything close to a true power play quarterback. Caufield is no doubt going to set up shop on the left side of the ice on the power play and a bounce back season from Petry could’ve bumped his numbers.

Not only is a quarterback pivotal for puck distribution, but the threat of an option from that spot can free up Caufield and force the opposition to not devote as many resources to covering him. I don’t expect this to greatly impact Caufield’s overall numbers, as he still scored at a 49-goal pace after Martin St. Louis took over, but having an effective option to run the power play can only help his production. (july23)

7. It has been a while since I got to share some thoughts here. I’ll start with the draft, and though I am no prospect expert (I defer to the DobberProspects group on that one) I do find myself often having successful prospect drafts in my fantasy leagues. The more sources you can read to form your own balanced opinions on players, the better.

That being said, I often find that it’s not the average of the opinions that matter, but it’s the outliers that you need to really take note in, and sort out whether there is something there that the consensus is overlooking, or whether it is just someone looking to be different for the sake of it.

On that note, one of the players that I saw a few scouts rank in the top-10, while his average ranking was probably into the 20s, was Noah Ostlund (16^th overall selection by Buffalo). Ostlund is one player that I think a handful of scouts really keyed in on as one of the more projectable players in the draft, and they bumped him up their draft board because they liked what they saw. However, with both of his linemates for the year (Jonathan Lekkerimaki & Liam Ohgren) also being draft eligible prospects, and playing a flashier game, I think Ostlund ended up often being overlooked, and was the consensus number three of the set as a result. In the end, I had him ranked as a top-10 guy for my fantasy drafts, and managed to snag him at #25.

A few others I like that seem to be falling farther than where I would take them in fantasy drafts: Denton Mateychuk, Brad Lambert, Lane Hutson, Gleb Trikozov, and Adam Sykora. (july22)

8. I also haven’t put out a rambling since free agency opened, and while I did share some of my thoughts in the site’s fantasy take articles, I like to always have a best and worst contract signed. At this point, this is what they would each be:

The Best – Ilya Samsonov (G), Toronto Maple Leafs
One year contract worth $1.8 million

Samsonov was viewed in the same tier as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin not long ago, but never fully found his game with the Capitals. The Maple Leafs were a better team, and could hit a home run with a cheap goalie again this year. They also have the added advantage of Samsonov still being a restricted free agent next summer, and can retain his rights for at least another season. Getting a possible starting goalie with huge upside, but very little commitment has home-run written all over it.

HMs: Nino Niederreiter, Calle Jarnkrok, Dylan Strome (july22)

9. The Worst – Erik Gudbranson (D), Columbus Blue Jackets
Four years at $4.0 million per year

I’ll preface this by saying that if this was the difference between getting signing Johnny Gaudreau and not, then it doesn’t look as bad. That being said, it’s still twice as much and twice as long as the maximum someone should have been willing to pay a third pairing bruiser on defense. Bad-branson will still offer some solid peripherals in fantasy leagues, but in cap leagues he’s nearly un-rosterable.

HMs: Nicolas Deslauriers, Nick Leddy, Ben Chiarot, Nikita Zadorov (sensing a pattern?) (july22)

10. Though free agency has quieted down, there are still a few useful players out there between Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, and John Klingberg, but one name was crossed off the list late this past week was Nino Niederreiter's (I think I can finally spell his name now).

El Nino signed in Nashville for two years at $4 million per season, and the general consensus was that it is a bargain deal for the Preds. Niederreiter fills a need on the second line, and should bring a much-needed combination of goal scoring ability, and sandpaper to the second line alongside playmaker Ryan Johansen. The new Predators winger has paced for about 50 points in four of the last six season, while only seeing one season in his career above 16 minute of ice time per game. Expect a bump in ice time by the winger who has a track record of impressive metrics at even strength. However, it is unlikely that he sees much time with the man-advantage, likely capping his output around his previous career high of 57 points. (july22)

11. Just as a side-bar: anyone else kind of surprised Evan Rodrigues hasn’t signed anywhere yet? Teams are running out of cap space and even some of those that have room – the Stars, Rangers, and Devils come to mind – have their own RFAs yet to sign. I’m not sure what the hold-up is, but I really do think he can help any team that signs him a lot. I did a deep dive on him back in May so I won’t go everything again, all I’ll say is he could really help teams like Nashville and Ottawa – teams missing scoring in the bottom-6 – and probably won’t be too expensive at this point. (july21)

12. Other than the player getting signed or traded, and the void he leaves behind, there is obvious impact that comes to his new team. Players on either side are going to be affected. Let's look into William Eklund and Thomas Chabot here and you can follow the link for further analysis on Patrik Laine, Carter Verhaeghe, Bo Horvat, and Miro Heiskanen interests you.

So, let's start with William Eklund. Trading Brent Burns did one thing to the San Jose roster: it opened a top PP role. Since acquiring Erik Karlsson, it was generally Burns or Karlsson (and often both) on the top power play. With Burns gone, this cements Karlsson into the top PP role and likely forces the team to roll with a 4F/1D power play. Assuming Karlsson, Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, and Timo Meier are four of the five components, it leaves one spot open.

The open power-play role could go to Alexander Barabnov. When Karlsson missed a couple months from January-March, it was Barabanov who was often used with the top forwards. That was without Eklund on the roster, though, and if he makes the team out of training camp, he could easily take that top PP role, too. It would make sense: Eklund is a supremely talented offensive player. To have him make the roster but not have him on the power play would seem like a misuse of his skills. Just last year we saw Matthew Boldy get a fair amount of top PP time sliding onto the Minnesota roster halfway through the season. We also saw the same things for Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufield in recent campaigns. It might be asking too much for Eklund to perform like those players in his first full year, but that’s what the Sharks are expecting of him. If he can do that, there’s no reason not to give him that top PP time.

We could see Eklund walk onto this team and skate on the second line and first power-play quintet. That would give him 60-point upside right out of the gate. It might be a lot to lob onto a 20-year-old rookie but again, this is what the team (and fans and fantasy owners) are expecting of him. He’ll at least have the opportunity to make good on it. (july19)

13. Thomas Chabot: When I wrote about Chabot’s 2021-22 season back in May, two areas of concern were team depth scoring and the power play. As for the latter, Chabot has 31 PPPs in his last 179 games going back three seasons. For reference, Cale Makar had 34 PPPs in 77 games while Quinn Hughes had 31 in 76 games this past season. Adam Fox had 33 PPPs, Roman Josi had 37, and Victor Hedman had 38. If Chabot wants to leap to nearly the top of the production standings among blue liners, being considerably better on the power play is a must.

The two big offseason additions Ottawa made in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux should help immensely. From Evolving Hockey, they both had significant expected goals impacts with the man advantage over the last three years, with the former having a big actual-goals impact.

It is exactly what Chabot needed to ascend to the next level in the fantasy game. He cannot post 17 PPPs, or thereabouts, in an 82-game season and hope to be a 70- or 80-point guy. The additional depth scoring at 5-on-5 should help as well, no doubt, but adding guys who draw penalties and are also good on the power play should help even more. If this team can climb into the top-10 of power-play goal scoring, Chabot stands a good chance of cruising past the 60-point mark. He can bring adequate peripherals, too, so he could really be one of the more valuable defensemen in 2022-23. I won’t be doing projections for a couple months yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him somewhere among the top-15 defensemen when all is said and done. (july19)

14. The Ottawa Senators acquiring Cam Talbot was a tough blow if you were hoping to invest in Anton Forsberg stock this season. In a matter of 24 hours, Forsberg went from getting handed the keys to the number one job when Matt Murray was dealt, to sliding back into a tandem situation and potentially a 1B if he’s not careful with the arrival of Talbot. Nobody was more consistent in the second half of the season last year than Forsberg, recording a .900 save percentage or better in 32 of his final 40 games. He would’ve been a great value option you could’ve taken later in drafts this fall, but now pinning down his value and playing time is a bit tricky. (july18)

15. I’m really curious to see how Mason Marchment produces this season with the Dallas Stars. It’s going to be difficult to project his totals since he scored at a 71-point pace last year, albeit over only 54 games and on a team that averaged more than four goals per game. Still, Marchment only recorded six of his 47 points playing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov last year, so it’s not like he needed elite players to produce consistently.

The fear here would be Marchment’s ability to crack the top-six in Dallas. The top line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson is locked in, so he’ll have to earn a spot on that second unit if his numbers are going to remain anywhere close to what they were in 2021-22. The Stars bottom six is not full of offensive talent to say the least. (july18)

16. David Perron is often overlooked in fantasy drafts despite being able to consistently produce while entering his mid-30s. Perron has posted point paces of 70, 84, 70, 66 and 77 over the past five seasons and still had an ADP in the 20^th round last year. He’ll likely be unheralded again this fall after signing with the Detroit Red Wings, but there should be reason for optimism that Perron will continue to produce. Despite the deficiencies the Wings may have, their top six suddenly looks very potent, and Perron may find himself playing with Andrew Copp and Jakub Vrana. That’s a great situation for him to turn in another strong season. Until Perron gives you a reason to doubt him, don’t do it. (july18)

17. One draft day trade that piqued my interest was Alexander Romanov heading to the Islanders. He ranked in the top 20 in both hits and blocks last season, averaging nearly three and two per game respectively. The problem with Romanov is he’s not a major point producer, topping out at 13 last year in 79 games. But if he can expand on that with a bigger opportunity in New York to let’s say 30 points, he’d be very valuable in multi-cat leagues. Keep an eye out for him late in your drafts if you’re in a deep league that counts hits and blocks. (july18)

18. The Sharks also now have a new head coach. Without a lot of depth to the lineup, there’s likely not a lot to shake up within the skater group, but with three goalies it will be interesting to see how David Quinn handles things. In the crease, Quinn’s history with the Rangers shows that he has a tendency to split starts more evenly than other coaches do at the NHL level. For the Sharks this year, having a three-headed goalie set of Adin Hill, James Reimer, and Kaapo Kahkonen, it means that even if one is traded, don’t expect any of them to hit 50 games for the Sharks this season, and if all three remain with the team, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to project less than 35 starts for each. (july22)

19. It really is tough what to make of Scott Perunovich if only because his lone NHL season was cut very short by injury. There is also a long line of defensemen that could theoretically be the PP1 QB in St. Louis this year, starting with Torey Krug and Justin Faulk, and including even Colton Parayko and Nick Leddy. All four have some history of running a power play and that makes it a very tall mountain for Perunovich. But David Perron has moved on and he was a huge part of their power play. We could see some stumbles out of the gate and that could result in some blue liners shifting around, and would bring Perunovich into play.

One thing that stuck out to me watching the soon-to-be 24-year-old Perunovich was his skating and transition work. He seemed to get up the ice with the puck with ease and just getting into the offensive zone with control is half the battle.  The St. Louis defense is somewhat set as they have seven NHLers under contract for 2022-23, not including this American rearguard. But we saw injuries hit them last season and if things go wrong without Perron, and a guy or two get hurt, there could be a PP1 QB waiting to take over. It’s a long shot but I’m a believer in his talent. (july21)

20. I am probably not the only person waiting for Evan Bouchard to go absolutely nuclear and have a monster fantasy season. To wit: over his last two seasons, he sits at 1.4 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Looking across the league, that puts him tied for 4^th among all defensemen (with John Carlson), with only the Colorado duo of Cale Makar and Devon Toews, plus Roman Josi, ahead of him. The funny part is he’s only been on the ice for 2.7 goals per 60 minutes while both Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie are over 3.0 goals/60. He is more involved in the play, which makes a lot of sense when we look at his profile: In his brief 14-game 2021 season, he had similar carry-in percentages to guys like Makar, Erik Karlsson, and John Klingberg. His controlled zone exit percentage was near the top of the league, in line with Josi and Charlie McAvoy.

Now, we would be foolish to rely simply on a 14-game sample, which brings us to 2021-22. He had similar controlled zone entry rates as names like Zach Werenski and Devon Toews, was the only Oilers defenseman to be above average in both controlled zone exits and net controlled zone exits (successful exits less failed exits), and led the team’s blue liners again in primary shot assists per 60 minutes. He also found open space, leading to the highest rate of high-danger shots among Edmonton defensemen, and similar to names like Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad. This led to a lot of good offense for the team, as his (HockeyViz) offensive impacts were high (but he did give up a lot in his own end).

He reminds me a lot of Brent Burns in some sense. He loves to fire the puck from the blue line and that can be good for fantasy but bad for real-life impacts. It is obvious he’s a very good puck mover, but he loves firing the puck from distance and that can often lead to what is functionally a turnover.

Tyson Barrie finished last season as the PP1 QB and he may just hold onto that role. To keep Barrie’s contract from being an anchor, they need him to run that top unit, and he’s very good at it. But we have seen Bouchard fill that spot from time to time. This is likely a case where it’ll take an injury to Barrie for Bouchard to step in, but he’s right on the cusp. Even without a top PP role, he’s a 40-point defenseman on this team. But there is a lot more to come and if he can take another step in his development, he could force the team’s hand. (july21)

21. Going 17^th overall in the 2018 Draft would necessarily scream “can’t-miss prospect” but Devils fans and fantasy owners alike were really excited about Ty Smith getting to the NHL. His puck-moving and skating abilities were touted by just about everyone that ever saw Smith play. His rookie season saw some risky play, as his controlled zone exits were above average, but his failed exits per 60 minutes were below average (from Corey Sznajder’s tracking data Patreon).

That high-risk nature of his game led to reasonable goals impacts but also led to a lot of chances behind him. In fact, it led to him having the worst expected goals against rate at 5-on-5 for the Devils in the COVID-shortened 2021 season.

This problem continued in 2021-22 for various reasons. His zone exits with possession remained above average, but he was constantly giving up the blue line when the opposition was attacking. He was the worst on the Devils’ blue line roster in allowing controlled zone entries, and it wasn’t particularly close.

But the skills are there to work on. Pittsburgh has a plethora of forwards and defensemen with lots of experience that can help his game along. He is a good playmaker who can help create offensively but the defensive weaknesses are so glaring that a coach will be reluctant to trust him with 20 minutes a night. With the depth on the Penguins blue line, he’ll be a bottom-pair guy anyway and will have the opportunity to grow his role in the coming years. Then again, all of Jeff Petry, Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson, and Jan Rutta are signed for at least three more years. This is likely to be a long-term project and I’m not sure there’s much here fantasy-wise in the short-term. (july20)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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