It's usually sound advice to not put too much stock on a skater's performance during the Stanley Cup playoffs, what with it being a smaller sample size plus games being played under conditions less similar to the regular season due to factors such as gutting through injuries, teams focusing more – or less – on offense as compared to normal, etc. Despite this, some players do break-out in the playoffs, and having a poll that focuses on playoff production as a barometer for 2022-23 may help us make some sense of the range in production from these players.

The following 20 skaters had scoring rates during the 2021-22 regular season and 2022 playoffs that differed enough to wonder which version we'll see in the 2022-23 regular season: the 2022 playoff version or the 2021-22 regular season version. Your task is to vote for whomever you believe will produce, in the 2022-23 regular season, closer to how they did in the 2022 playoffs versus how they did in the 2021-22 regular season. In other words, don't vote for anyone if you think his 2022-23 regular season scoring rate will more closely match his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate than his 2022 playoff scoring rate.

Let's look at two hypothetical examples to illustrate things. First is where a skater did better in the playoffs, finishing with a scoring pace of 65 in the 2021-22 regular season but a scoring pace of 87 in the 2022 playoffs, making the midpoint between those numbers a 76 point scoring pace. So if you think that skater will have a 2022-23 regular season scoring pace of 77 points or higher, then you should vote for him since that would be closer to his higher playoff scoring rate. On the other hand, if you believe the same skater's scoring rate for the 2022-23 regular season will be 76 or lower, then don't vote for him since it would be closer to his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate.

Second, is where a skater did worse in the playoffs, finishing with a scoring pace of 66 in the 2021-22 regular season but only 42 in the playoffs. That means the midpoint is 54, such that you should vote for him if you believe his 2022-23 regular season scoring pace will be 53 points or less, since his lower 2022-23 rate would be closer to his comparatively worse 2022 playoff scoring rate than his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate. But you should not vote for him if you think he'll have a 54 point or higher scoring pace for 2022-23 since that would be closer to his 2021-22 regular season scoring rate.

Note that for all assessment purposes, you should consider a skater's scoring rate (i.e., his 82 game point scoring pace) not his actual points scored. Also, this is a poll with no limit to how many or how few skaters you can vote for.

Now that the voting criteria are clear, the 20 voting choices are listed below in alphabetical order with their 2021-22 scoring pace, their 2022 playoff scoring pace, and, to make things easier to calculate how you should vote, the midpoint between the two. A link to cast votes will appear at the end of the column.

Joel Eriksson Ek (Playoff pace = 68; Regular Season pace = 53; Midpoint = 60.5)

As highlighted in my last poll, the hulking Swede has seen his regular season scoring pace rise for four straight seasons. The key for him has been a role on PP1, which, with the departure of Kevin Fiala, should be easier for him to maintain. Eriksson Ek could even be moved into the top six, if Marco Rossi flops or just to provide more size. Either of these scenarios makes it easier to envision Eriksson Ek finishing with a scoring pace closer to what we saw in the playoff versus the 2021-22 regular season.

Adam Fox (Playoff Pace = 94; Regular Season pace = 78; Midpoint = 86)

Just when it looked like Fox might be coming back to earth, finishing with just seven points in his last ten regular season games, he went into beast mode during the playoffs and would be the most hyped rearguard going into 2022-23 if it wasn't for a guy named Cale Makar. Can Fox not only best the point per game mark but reach an 87-point pace? I'd say no given his lack of SOG plus high IPPs for 2021-22; but after what I saw from him in the playoffs, I wouldn't rule it out.

Johnny Gaudreau (Playoff pace = 95; Regular Season pace = 115; Midpoint = 105)

If Gaudreau had opted to stay in Calgary, it would've been difficult to envision him not doing as well as he did in 2021-22. Instead, he shocked the world by opting to ink a deal with Columbus, and in doing so has led many to believe he'll have a difficult time coming close to his numbers from 2021-22, in which case he'd be an easy vote here.

Taylor Hall (Playoff pace = 47; Regular Season pace = 62; Midpoint = 54.5)

Does Hall have it in him to play at or near his regular season pace; or will he further disappoint? Hall has found a way to climb back to solid numbers after being counted out before, so maybe he has another resurgence left in him for 2022-23?

Victor Hedman (Playoff pace = 67; Regular Season pace = 85; Midpoint = 76)

After his best regular season scoring rate of his already storied career, Hedman, like nearly all Lightning skaters, saw his production drop in the playoffs. In his case that could be explained by him supposedly fighting through an injury, on top of the rigors of being true #1 defenseman with the season on the line. Still, prior to the 2021-22 season Hedman had never scored above a 75-point-pace, so odds are he'll finish nearer to his playoff rate in 2022-23.

Chris Kreider (Playoff pace = 65; Regular Season pace = 78; Midpoint = 71.5)

Although Krieder cooled in the playoffs, it wasn't by much. After the magic of the 2021-22 regular season he's earned more ice time and locked in a top line spot. This is a player who not only had failed to ever score at a 70-point-pace before, but hadn't even reached 60; so it would be a tall order to reach 72+ in 2022-23.

Nikita Kucherov (Playoff pace = 96; Regular Season pace = 120; Midpoint = 108)

After finishing with 37 points in his final 21 games, Kucherov's scoring rate dropped quite a bit in the playoffs. But he was facing tough opposition and what was revealed to be a meniscus issue, so chances are when 2022-23 rolls around he should be back to an ultra elite scoring rate again.

Jordan Kyrou (Playoff pace = 61; Regular Season pace = 83; Midpoint = 72)

After a 2021-22 regular season that saw Kyrou produce well despite no PP1 time and not a lot of minutes overall, he came back to earth in the playoffs. Which was the real Kyrou? Chances are the 2022-23 regular season will tell us a lot, although if he fails to see ice time gains it's not clear whether he can repeat what he did in the regular season, especially given IPPs, both overall and on the PP, of roughly 80%.

Arturi Lehkonen (Playoff pace = 57; Regular Season pace = 42; Midpoint = 49.5)

After averaging a point per every other game for the first time in 2021-22, Lehkonen was gifted top six minutes in the playoffs and did not look out of place. Plus, there will be one or more top six openings in Colorado, so what we saw may have been a preview of more to come.

Nathan MacKinnon (Playoff pace = 98; Regular Season pace = 111; Midpoint = 104.5)

Like fellow superstar Kucherov, MacKinnon's scoring pace dropped, although not by nearly as much. Still, it seemed like Mac reined things in a bit so as to not risk mistakes, whereas once the regular season is back rolling again he'll be his usual explosive self – the only center other than Wayne Gretzky to have more than two seasons of 4.2+ SOG and 1.2+ points per game by age 26.

Mitch Marner (Playoff pace = 93; Regular Season pace = 110; Midpoint = 101.5)

Although Marner played at an elite level in the playoffs, it didn't quite measure up to his regular season standard. Did he too ease off the gas pedal somewhat, ala MacKinnon? Perhaps; but after a career high in points, and with Marner right in his prime, a rebound to a level at or above his 2021-22 regular season pace is likely in the cards.

Ryan O'Rielly (Playoff pace = 82; Regular Season pace = 61; Midpoint = 72)

After three straight seasons with a scoring pace in the 70s, O'Reilly took a step back and landed at the level where he was prior to breaking out in 2018-19. Was his point per game showing in the playoffs a sign of a return to the O'Reilly poolies had begun to count on, or will the three scoring line approach of the Blues push down his regular season numbers yet again?

Alex Ovechkin (Playoff pace = 82; Regular Season pace = 96; Midpoint = 89)

As scorching as Kucherov was to end 2021-22, Ovi was to start it, storming out of the gates with 37 points in his first 22 games. After that though, the Great 8 was actually below the point per game mark, and showed his age. Betting against Ovi is not something that has led to a whole lot of success; however, as amazing as his career has been, everyone has to slow at some point, and it's usually earlier in one's career than where Ovi is now.

Joe Pavelski (Playoff pace = 70; Regular Season pace = 81; Midpoint = 75.5)

Speaking of ageless wonders, Pavelski had a superb regular season as the veteran sniper on a line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. Rick Bowness kept that line glued together; but do we know what a new coach Pete DeBoer will do? Perhaps Pavelski might get shifted around, in which case his production could suffer.

Bryan Rust (Playoff pace = 93; Regular Season pace = 79; Midpoint = 86)

When the dust settled, the Pens lost exactly zero top six forwards. The question becomes whether Rust's performance in the playoffs was a final free agency push, or just him continuing to come into his own. Tough to say.

Brayden Schenn (Playoff pace = 54; Regular Season pace = 77; Midpoint = 65.5)

With 40 points in his last 36 games despite less ice time than his norm due to St. Louis rolling three scoring lines, Schenn seemed rejuvenated. Yet it's always a bit suspect when a player has a career best at age 30, and coming off his worst season as a Blue, where he posted a scoring pace similar to his 54 pace in the playoffs. Perhaps the real Schenn lies somewhere in between, in which case it'll be a toss up as to whether he finishes above or below the midpoint.

Matthew Tkachuk (Playoff pace = 68; Regular Season pace = 104; Midpoint = 86)

With a new home and fat new contract, plus a presumed spot alongside Aleksander Barkov, Tkachuk and his fantasy owners are likely saying "Johnny Who?" But there is a risk of him easing off the gas pedal now, or perhaps not clicking with Barkov like he did with Gaudreau.

Frank Vatrano (Playoff pace = 53; Regular Season pace = 37; Midpoint = 45)

Always thought of as a player who had more talent than he was allowed to showcase, Vatrano shined once traded to the Rangers, raising his UFA stock in the process. Chances are the Ducks will finally be the team that lets him play consistently in the top six, in which case this would be one of the easier votes.

Mika Zibanejad (Playoff pace = 98; Regular Season pace = 82; Midpoint = 90)

Just when we thought Zibs' 2019-20 was indeed a fluke, he goes and plays superb hockey during the playoffs. Still not even 30, it's plausible he could rise back to this level for an entire regular season, although if Kreider continues syphoning away points and one of the young gun wingers isn't able to be a productive third member of that line, it could be a tall order.

Mats Zuccarello (Playoff pace = 57; Regular Season pace = 93; Midpoint = 75)

Is there a better gig than being tethered to Kirill Kaprizov, who, in 2021-22, staked a claim to already being one of the top forwards in all of the NHL in just his second season? So was Zucc's playoff step down just a small sample size, or might his age be catching up to him? If he sticks with Kaprizov, it'll be tough to bet against him, that's for sure.

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There you have the 20 skaters who were Jekyll and Hyde when it came to the 2021-22 regular season and the 2022 playoffs. Your task is to look at the numbers and vote for any of the skaters you believe will score, in the 2022-23 regular season, at a rate closer to what they scored in the 2021 playoffs versus their scoring rate in the 2021-22 regular season. As such, you can vote for any number of the 20 players, so long as you believe they will meet the criteria. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

Next week's mailbag might have room for or two more questions. To get yours to me, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.