Welcome back to The Journey, where we follow hockey prospects and their paths to the NHL, providing fantasy predictions and analysis along the way. Many thanks to Curtis Rines for so capably filling in for me the past few weeks while I was on vacation. He examined Andrea Kuzmenko's realistic upside, graded the first round of the 2022 draft, and profiled a few key players whose values shifted with all the offseason trades and signings. Past Journey articles can be found here.

It's the end of the month again, which means it's time for another edition of sink-or-swim, examining former high-end prospects whose values have taken a hit and whose futures now seem uncertain. This month will have more of a "down and out" focus—players who seem to have already sunk in terms of their fantasy value. While they are likely quite a long shot at this stage, all of the players featured this week could still provide value under the right circumstances if managers stay patient and adjust their expectations regarding upside.

As always, please feel welcome to post ideas for future players in the comments or hit me up with questions on Twitter @beegare.

Logan Morrison

Morrison was featured here in June for his key role (39 points in 19 games) in the Hamilton Bulldogs' Memorial Cup run after being crowned OHL champions. He had been passed over in the two previous drafts, and it seemed like a team would finally take a swing on him in 2022 after he scored 100 points in only 60 games.

But for whatever reason, Morrison went undrafted for a third consecutive year. No disrespect intended but does anyone taken after, say, Round 4 have anywhere near to Morrison's offensive track record and potential upside? Historical hit rates confirm that teams are essentially buying lottery tickets at that stage of the draft. Why not buy one that is more likely to be a winner? Baffling.

A refresher on the hit rates by draft position for skaters (2005 to 2013). Odds of hitting on an NHLer fall off dramatically as you get into the 20s. pic.twitter.com/MShDmqj2Lp

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) December 16, 2021

Former NHLer Rich Peverley, now the Stars' Director of Player Personnel, watches a lot of OHL games and was impressed enough by Morrison's high skill and IQ to invite him to Dallas' development camp. He pointed to Morrison's average skating as the biggest knock on his game historically but thinks the kid has done more than enough to at least earn a look. He will join Dallas for the Traverse City prospect tournament and hopefully do enough there to earn an invite to training camp in the fall.

Realistically, even if Morrison can pick up his skating and turn heads with his tenacity and puck smarts, he is still looking at a year or two in the AHL to make the transition to pro hockey. The Stars already have an incredible young core led by dynamic talents Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Jake Oettinger. With the addition of the late-blooming Mason Marchment from Florida (talk about an apt Morrison comparable, by the way), Dallas now boasts a clear top nine with two scoring lines and a gritty checking unit.

Source: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations/

There is not a ton of room on this team right now outside of maybe the fourth line, and if Morrison makes the AHL affiliate, he will be facing a battle for ice time and call ups with top-tier prospects Ty Dellandrea, Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque, Wyatt Johnston, Riley Damiani, and Antonio Stranges. But Alexander Radulov headed back to Russia for good this year, and several older (Joe Pavelski, Luke Glendening) and peripheral (Joel Kiviranta, Denis Gurianov, Marian Studenic, Jacob Peterson) players will be either RFAs or UFAs after 2022-23.

So there is an opportunity here to become a part of a young up-and-coming potential powerhouse. The coming weeks will reveal whether or not Morrison is able to make the most of it.

David Farrance

Although Farrance never seemed to gain the favour of the coaching staff for the Predators' AHL affiliate posting only 14 points in 46 games as a rookie pro, it was still surprising when Nashville did not qualify Farrance.

The more time that passes, the less likely it becomes. He was already out of favour in Milwaukee last season and now they are 8 deep on the back end. If he doesn't sign elsewhere, could see him come back on an AHL deal if anything.

— Curtis Rines (@curtis_rines) July 21, 2022

Whatever the reason for his struggles with Milwaukee, Farrance is actually looking at a decent situation with Carolina's affiliate, the Chicago Wolves. This was the top AHL team in 2021-22 by a hefty margin. They dominated during the regular season (13 more points than the second-place team) and took home the Calder Cup. If Farrance was a forward, his chances of cracking the deep, veteran-laden roster would seem slim. But there is surprisingly no dynamic, puck-moving defenders on this team's back end. Maxime Lajoie and Joey Keane shared the points lead for blue liners last year with 33 points in 60 and 62 games respectively, and Keane recently signed in the KHL with Spartak Moscow.

Farrance, who appeared here in March's Sink-or-Swim, thrived in college after Dante Fabbro moved on and he became his team's go-to defender, jumping up into the play, shooting a ton from the point, and getting lots of reps with the man advantage. When he wasn't used that way in Milwaukee, he struggled and faded into the background. If Farrance can mesh with Chicago's skilled forwards, including reigning scoring leader, Andrew Poturalski, he could regain the dynamic offensive touch that made him such a sexy fantasy stash a year or two ago after scoring 59 points over 45 college games.

Our "Visionary Assist of the Night" goes too David Farrance for his pass on Egor's goal!#MILhockey | #RFDvsMIL pic.twitter.com/KitjzO8aEG

📢 advertisement:

— Milwaukee Admirals (@mkeadmirals) January 9, 2022

This is getting ahead of ourselves, of course, but the Hurricanes are actually built quite similarly to the Wolves at the moment: a powerful forward group backstopped by a strong goalie and a handful of strong defensive defencemen (Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei). Outside of the aging Brent Burns and the enigmatic Jake Gardiner, now that Tony DeAngelo has moved on, Carolina does not really have anyone with Farrance's offensive skill set. It is certainly something to keep an eye on in the early months of this upcoming season.

Jack Dugan

Dugan, profiled here in May, has a very similar profile to Farrance: he posted dominant NCAA production as an overager but has had a rocky transition to the AHL so far. Although he initially lit up the AHL as a rookie with 33 points in 37 games, Dugan took a step back on the scoresheet this year due to injury and attempting to shore up his defensive habits. Like Farrance, Dugan was surprisingly not qualified by Vegas and New Jersey was able to pick him up for free as a low-risk, high-reward farm signing.

He will start 2022-23 with their affiliate, the Utica Devils, a young (average age 25), fairly weak group of players. Among their current forward roster, only 27-year-old, former sixth round pick, Brian Pinho, is even signed by New Jersey. There really is not a lot of depth left on this team now that players like Alexander Holtz, Ty Smith, and Dawson Mercer have graduated or moved along.

Although New Jersey is an emerging force with an increasingly crowded, competitive NHL roster, Dugan does not have to worry about that yet: he needs to focus on getting back to what he was doing when he scored 52 points in only 34 NCAA games and followed that up by going a point-per game as an AHL rookie. If he can re-establish himself as an offensive force again at the lower level, he could start to recover the intriguing value he had in fantasy just a couple years ago.

Check out the hand-eye coordination on this tip-in goal: https://twitter.com/vincesapienza/status/1380698187091021824?s=21&t=F7-PHTEuKLFXAX5hgTRnFw

Juuso Valimaki

Valimaki is another former high-end prospect who has been absolutely left for dead in fantasy. He is being dropped or traded for pennies on the dollar in my leagues right now even though just a year ago he was widely viewed as one of the best prospects at the position. In December 2020, he was ranked fifth overall in Dobber's Top 50 Prospect Defencemen list right between Evan Bouchard and Bowen Byram.

My list for reference:
1. Kirill Kaprizov
2. Juuso Valimaki
3. Ilya Sorokin
4. Igor Shestyorkin
5. Marco Rossi
6. Alexis Lafreniere
7. Barrett Hayton
8. Cole Perfetti
9. Ty Smith
10. Samuel Poulin

If nothing else, good guys to keep on your redraft list to take a flier on.

— Fantasy Hockey Lifer – Victor Nuño (@VictorNuno12) December 14, 2020

100% Addison. Valimaki is a fringe NHLer at this point.

— Fantasy Hockey Lifer – Victor Nuño (@VictorNuno12) May 21, 2022

Valimaki began 2020-21 with a dominant stretch in the Liiga (19 points in 19 games), then made the jump to the Flames and did merely okay in a sheltered, offensive role. Then Calgary switched coaches to Darryl Sutter and gave away Valimaki's sweet deployment to journeyman signings Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson. Then Oliver Kylington and Noah Hanifin both broke out offensively in 2022-23 and sucked up all the power-play time. Valimaki was healthy scratched for a significant stretch of last season before finally being sent down to Stockton where he also failed to impress.

He is 23 now and is signed through 2022-23 with the Flames after which he will be an RFA. Coach Sutter has stated he wants players who play hard and are hard to play against. Given Valimaki's drastic and almost immediate change in deployment under Sutter, it seems fair to assume that the Finn did not meet his coach's expectations in some way. If he can post stronger numbers this year for Stockton or move to a different NHL team's system via trade, Valimaki should still have potential as an offensively inclined power-play specialist. This is a defender who scored a point per game in his draft year—that is Denton Mateychuk, Kevin Korchinski, and Pavel Mintyukov territory from the 2022 draft class. It seems unlikely that scoring talent like that has just dried up completely due to a couple tough years of poor asset management from the Flames.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.