Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

1. Once upon a time, Anthony Mantha was one of the more heralded Wingers Of The Fantasy Future that we had in the NHL. From 2017-2020, his age-23 through age-25 seasons, he averaged 28 goals, 227 shots, and 89 hits every 82 games. This was for a very downtrodden Detroit franchise that was emerging from the Datsyuk/Zetterberg era and rebuilding (poorly).

Fast forward a couple years and after a down season split between Detroit and Washington, followed by an injury-plagued 2021-22 campaign, and it seems like all the hype is gone. There is still a lot to like here, so follow the link ahead, as we deep-dived into what we might be able to expect from Mantha this coming season. (aug26)

2. One interesting competition we have that will have fantasy implications is that battle between Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt for the second-line centre role in Buffalo. The team is rebuilding nicely but still does not have the depth to have a scoring third line. The top-4 winger mix will be Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, Alex Tuch, and (likely) Jack Quinn. Those are four talented scoring wingers. After that, we’re looking at Peyton Krebs, Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Asplund, and so on. Not bad players by any stretch, but not the top-end scorers further up the lineup.

Down the stretch last year, Buffalo used Mittelstadt often with the likes of Tuch and Olofsson on that second line while Cozens was on the third line with the Asplunds and Okposos of the world. When looking at what they did through the whole season, though, it’s hard not to give Cozens a lot of credit. For the complete analysis, please follow the link… (aug26)

3. Let’s talk about another pair of players, only this time from different teams, but both likely to end up on the second line for their respective franchises. They are both young players that had a lot of promise and hype when they were drafted, but as things often go, the excitement has subsided since their drafting. They are Marco Rossi from Minnesota and Cole Perfetti up in Winnipeg. Here again, please follow the link for more… (aug26)

4. How is it looking for Phil Kessel now that he's a Golden Knight? Mike Clifford wrote about that here. He also covered Paul Stastny's signing here… (aug26)

5. The Islanders signed, or re-signed, a slew of players earlier this week, of both the NHL and AHL variety. The big name that was secured was defenceman Noah Dobson, who signed a three-year deal with a $4M average annual value. For a 22-year-old coming off a 51-point season, not a bad deal for the team as they work through their apparent Cup window.

From a fantasy perspective, what we want to know is if he can repeat, or improve upon, his breakout 2021-22 season. The 12^th overall pick from 2018 was always marked to be a good defenceman, but can he be a top-end producer from the backend? The deep dive here… (aug25)

6. I was going through Justin Faulk‘s season and something hit me: we should be taking about Torey Krug‘s season.

While discussing defencemen, I think it’s important to adjust our expectations. One thing that came up while researching this Ramblings was just how many 40-point defencemen there were: 33. That was in a turbulent season, too. Thomas Chabot had 38 points in 59 games, with Erik Karlsson having 35 in 50 contests and Miro Heiskanen with 36 in 70 games. There were 33 defencemen with at least 40 points in 2021-22 and, for reference, the 2018-19 season had 30. If the scoring environment stays the same and we don’t have a lot of postponements (fingers crossed), we could push close to 40 defencemen posting 40 points. It just doesn’t buy what it used to.

Krug, meanwhile, paced for 55 points in 82 games (43 in 64) and that would be a very good fantasy season for him. My question, as it is with a lot of St. Louis Blues skaters, is what is the impact of losing David Perron?

As I’ve written a few times since he signed in Detroit, Perron was an engine for that St. Louis power play: he had 74 PPPs over his last three seasons with the Blues. No other St. Louis forward managed 50. On a per-minute basis, the only forwards in the league to have a higher rate than Perron from 2019-22 was the Edmonton duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. How do the Blues replace that?

I am not sure they can. It’s a reason I’m not as bullish on Blues skaters as I’ve been in recent seasons. Maybe someone else – Jordan Kyrou? – replaces his impact but it’s a very high bar. It’ll be fascinating to watch this play out in St. Louis, and Detroit, this year. (aug25)

7. It’s tough to put a lot of stock into these kinds of things, but when the coach hints that he is breaking up the Misfit Line, one of the most common trios from the last few years, you listen.

Bruce Cassidy apparently doesn’t want to keep them apart forever, but it does sound like he wants to experiment and see how the three forwards Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith, can do in other situations.

With the other top two forwards on the team being a centre (Jack Eichel) and a right-wing (Mark Stone) then it stands to reason Jonathan Marchessault will have the most to gain with a possible shift to the top line. We have seen Chandler Stephenson thrive in that top line spot as well, but if Marchessault starts out well there (and it’s hard to envision anyone not doing well alongside Eichel and Stone) then he may be in line to touch his career high levels around a point-per-game. (aug24)

8. I’ve mentioned the Sharks’ goalies before as well, but I do think that by Christmas (so maybe not the start of the season) at least one of them is playing for another team. Any of them could fit cap-wise in Vegas (a lot of wins), or be young enough to help out in Montreal (a lot of volume), but I wonder if the most likely destination is Philadelphia. The Flyers were banking on Ivan Fedotov coming over from Russia, but as we all know, he was detained there. If he doesn’t make it over, then the Flyers are left with the option of running a tandem of Carter Hart and Felix Sandstrom, or searching for external goalie help.

Like with Montreal there would be a lot of volume, though maybe not a lot of wins. However, it’s better than the three-headed crease-beast in San Jose, where neither wins or volume will be easy to come by. As James Reimer is the steady presence, and Kappo Kahkonen is the shiny new gem, Adin Hill is likely the first one out the door if the Sharks find a taker. (aug24)

9. Sticking with the Sharks, I don’t know if you have looked at their forward group lately, but there’s not a lot there to get excited about. It’s likely going to be mostly a one-line team for the offence, with Logan Couture‘s second line bringing some scoring, and a fair amount of defensive responsibility to match it. Two thirds of the top line is set between Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, but the right winger there isn’t set in stone, and neither are the two wingers on Couture’s line. Additionally, the aforementioned trio of forwards will team up with Erik Karlsson on the top power play unit, but there’s still one spot to win.

The most likely set to fill out the top-six is William Eklund, Alexander Barabanov, and Kevin Labanc. Labanc has a history of success on the power play, while Eklund may have the highest offensive ceiling of the three. However, the biggest riser might just be Barabanov.

We could see 45 even strength points from him with a couple on the second power play unit, and then the hot hand of Labanc and Eklund are battling it out for the leftover points on PP1. I give the edge to Eklund there though, as Labanc has disappointed aside from one good half-a-season stretch in his career. (aug24)

10. I’ve mentioned before in my Ramblings that for my 10 or 12 team leagues, I like to prep by doing mock drafts for 14 teams. This means that the player pool depletes a little more quickly, and you get more used to having to pick between players you may not quite like as much when a certain pick rolls around. If you can start to ace the 14 team drafts with a good-looking team for a 12-team setup, then when the real draft comes around for your 12-team league, you’re going to be drafting on easy mode. Follow the link for some of my early impressions regarding this year's pool of players. (aug27)

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11. One more SJ note, is that I hope you’re not all sleeping on 32-year-old Erik Karlsson this season. This is the first year since his last season with Ottawa that Karlsson won’t have to share power play duties with Brent Burns. In the last four seasons as they have played together, Karlsson’s IPP has ranged from 37-53%, while his final three years in Ottawa he never dipped lower than 62%. More notably though is on the power play (as this was likely more affected by Burns’ presence), Karlsson’s average PPIPP in his final three years in Ottawa was 76%, while his PPIPP in San Jose was 66%.

All told, if Karlsson gets back to his IPP levels from his Ottawa days, that’s dozen points on top of what he was putting up the last couple of years. A 70-point pace is not out of the question as a result, though you can draft/acquire him right now as a 55-point defenceman. The biggest issue is the games played, where he hasn’t logged 60 games in a season since departing Ottawa. However, two of those seasons are Covid-shortened ones, so that sounds worse than it is. He’s someone whose stock should explode in the first couple of weeks of the season because of the opportunities that everyone just seems to be overlooking right now. (aug24)

12. The Winnipeg Jets have only nine forwards plus Cole Perfetti signed to NHL contracts right now. There are a few players that could get a shot at cracking the lineup, but it seems more likely that there will be an addition or two here, be it a free agent or through a trade.

Morgan Barron and Mason Appleton may get some more minutes this year and a little more time up in the lineup, but the key to filling out their secondary scoring may come as one of the better offensive players still on the market. The toolsy Evan Rodrigues just feels like such a good fit here as a third line player that can move up if there are injuries or for when Pierre-Luc Dubois eventually gets traded to the Canadiens. Some secondary scoring would go a long way to making this team a playoff contender again. (aug24)

13. Reminder: We have been doing our team-by-team review of each franchise’s offseason. Which guys left the organization, which were brought in, and what the fantasy impact of all that is. We’re at the third-quarter mark, so there is a lot to catch up on if you haven’t been reading already. (aug23)

14. Mason McTavish dominated the WJC so thoroughly, that I bumped up his NHL readiness as well as his upside in our Fantasy Guide. I don’t do this with too many players, as it is only one tournament, but he really stood out as a complete player with an elite offensive touch.

You may have noticed he jumped up into the Top 10 in the recent Fantasy Prospect Rankings. In the Fantasy Guide, I predict he makes the team (80% certainty) and posts 39 points. But I may need to add him to my sleeper section for 50-plus. He looks every bit as capable of doing it as Trevor Zegras did last season. If the two play together, you can probably lock that in.

The other Duck who starred in the tournament – Olen Zellweger – was an offensive dynamo for Team Canada. But with the roster that the Ducks have right now, there is no way he makes the team this season. Next season (2023-24), however, he’s a lock – John Klingberg and Kevin Shattenkirk will be gone. (aug22)

15. I’m impressed with Joakim Kemell, who finished second in WJC scoring. But I still tend to hold down Nashville prospects in terms of their arrival times. Let’s look at some key draft picks over the past decade:

Kevin Fiala, drafted 11^th overall in 2014, ‘arrived’ as a fantasy player in 2017-18…and didn’t seriously arrive until 2019-20. The wait time there was five years before he was a pro-team player on most fantasy rosters.

Eeli Tolvanen, drafted 30^th overall in 2017, still hasn’t arrived as a true pro-team fantasy player.

Philip Tomasino, 24^th overall in 2019, actually made the team last year and looks very promising. But didn’t get on a pro fantasy team with his 32 points. That’s three years now.

The list goes on. You can look at defensemen (Dante Fabbro, Sam Girard), or go further back for forwards with the likes of Pontus Aberg. But the point is – as great as Kemell is looking right now, this is Nashville. And I err on the side of caution with him and any short-term expectations. (aug22)

16. I already had plenty of respect for the likes of Logan Stankoven (Team Canada, Dallas prospect), Aatu Raty (Team Finland, NYI prospect) and Kent Johnson (Team Canada, CBJ prospect). But one guy who has been rapidly rising up my lists is Joshua Roy. He’s a Montreal prospect who fell all the way down to 150^th overall in 2021. His trajectory has been skyrocketing ever since, beginning with his QMJHL-leading 119 points last season. His WJC performance was overshadowed by some of the other bigger-named stars out there, but he was money in the bank for Team Canada, and ended up with eight points in the seven games. He’ll crack the Top 50 in the next Fantasy Prospects list update. (aug22)

17. A quick word on William Dufour, who was also strong in this tournament and also dominated the QMJHL (just three points behind Roy, actually). He is an Islanders prospect. And so, as with Nashville except even more so – I fear for the wait time. Not for him making the NHL, which I’m sure is just a year off. But for his big season. I mean – we’re still waiting on Anthony Beauvillier! (aug22)

18. Landon Slaggert did not make this month’s Top 200 Fantasy Prospects list, but the Chicago prospect really surged up it. One hundred and twenty-two spots to be precise. He sits at 291 due to the longish wait time. But he definitely stuck out for Team USA. (aug22)

19. Juraj Slafkovsky was this year’s top draft pick, but I don’t think he makes the Habs. Being first overall traditionally means you’re on the team immediately, but the Habs can afford to make him wait a year and not make the Kaapo Kakko (another elite prospect with size) mistake of rushing him.

Sure, they could do it. But why? It’s a lost year. They already made this abundantly clear by taking on the Sean Monahan salary and stocking up draft picks. They don’t want to bring Slafkovsky into such an environment, do they? It makes the most sense to maintain an extra year of player control and bring Slafkovsky in next year. They have too many forwards anyway, even if they start the year with Paul Byron on IR, Mitchell Stephens, Jesse Ylonen and Michael Pezzetta in the minors. Even with all that, the team has 13 NHL forwards – proven NHL forwards – under contract. No, expect Slafkovsky to play his nine-game trial period and then get sent to the AHL.

By the way, Slafkovsky is eligible to play as an 18-year-old in the AHL because he didn’t play Canadian junior hockey. (aug22)

20. With Carey Price likely out of the season, the Habs will turn to Jake Allen. Wait, that can’t be right. Montreal goaltending was terrible, surely they won’t roll with the same group of goalies? Well, yes. Take a look at the options on the free agent market. There’s…really nobody. Braden Holtby? No thanks. The only other option is the trade route. Anton Khudobin? Well, that would certainly fit into plans for a rebuild – he’d really help them tank. Jonathan Quick? That would be interesting – just one year left on his deal, and it would allow Cal Petersen to take the reins unopposed. James Reimer? Another interesting one. But I think they stick with Allen, who was actually decent in the second half. In fact, after November 27 here were Allen’s numbers over 20 games:

 5-11-3, 3.51 GAA, 0.909 SV% and 45% QS

Not horrible on a team that a better second half. This team won’t make the playoffs, but I think they’re too good to enter the Bedard sweepstakes. (aug22)

21. The Rasmus Sandin situation is starting to feel like the William Nylander situation back when Nylander sat out until the very last day possible, which was December 1. Until he starts missing training camp, I won’t be adjusting any projections for him. But it’s starting to feel like that situation. And, no coincidence here – Lewis Gross is the agent for both Sandin and Nylander! (aug22)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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