Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Grant Campbell, filling in for Dobber

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1. There are a handful of prominent restricted free agents left to sign with their teams, among them Jason Robertson in Dallas, Rasmus Sandin in Toronto, Barrett Hayton in Arizona. One of them, Kirby Dach in Montreal, was locked up for four years last Wednesday.

This doesn’t seem like a bad bet from the Habs. If he lives up to his potential, those four years could be a great value for the team. If he doesn’t, it’s not a huge average annual value that will cripple their cap space beyond the 2022-23 season. It also gives Dach a bit of security and gives him the chance to cash in huge four years hence.

Dach has an important year ahead of him. He basically lost a season to his wrist surgery in COVID 2021, breaking it at the World Juniors and then, it appeared, rushing back to the regular season. He had shoulder problems in 2021-22 and was subsequently traded. He really hasn’t been able to show his potential for a couple years now.

As for the offensive upside, there was a good article by former AHL coach Jack Han about Dach’s reluctance to use his size to his benefit in the opponent’s zone. Standing 6-4 and over 200 lbs (depending on your source), using that size should be a staple for him when dealing with defenders 1-on-1. If he can start to protect that puck and driving the net, good things should come for him.

He basically lost a year of development, was playing for an awful Hawks team, doesn’t turn 22 years old until January, and has just 152 regular season games to his name. There is more growth to come and if he can tap into that offensive potential, a very good two-way center is yet to come as well. He has to prove it first, but he’ll have lots of opportunities to do just that on a rebuilding Montreal team. Just don’t expect much fantasy goodness yet. He hasn’t been a big goal scorer/shooter at any level, so he could end up more valuable in the real world than in the fantasy game. (sep8)

2. The salary cap has put the squeeze on teams trying to add supporting players, so we are starting to see more players being added on a professional tryout basis. Three veteran NHLers were able to land PTOs on Friday:

Zach Aston-Reese – Toronto
Calvin de Haan – Carolina
Danny DeKeyser – Vancouver

These three players don’t move the needle in pure scoring leagues. However, if they are able to turn the PTOs into contracts with these teams (or potentially another team), their additions could affect other players on the bubble to make the lineup – in particular, rookies that you might be crossing your fingers on. For example, DeKeyser earning a spot on the Canucks could push Jack Rathbone down to the AHL to start the season, as both are left-shot defensemen. With Aston-Reese auditioning for a roster spot on the Leafs, Nick Robertson is also less of a certainty to crack the big club.

In bangers leagues, however, these PTO players might hold a bit of value. Aston-Reese led the Penguins with 187 hits, even though he played only 52 games for them before being traded to Anaheim. Also, de Haan finished third in the entire NHL with 172 blocked shots while finishing second on the Blackhawks with 146 hits. (sep10)

3. One area that I think is untapped when it comes to competitive advantage in fantasy leagues is power-play information. So much of analytics focuses on 5-on-5 play, which has been proven to make sense when it comes to season outcomes by team as well as overall scoring trends by player. Yet power-play points is one important category in fantasy leagues in that it can be similar to the “double word score” in Scrabble for rewarding multicategory leaguers twice. As well, a full-time role on the first-unit power play can provide a boost to a player’s overall scoring. Follow the link for some power-play data… (sep10)

4. Chris Kreider wasn’t even in the top 10 in power-play shots in spite of leading the league with 26 power-play goals. He finished just outside of the top 20 with 66 power-play shots. By my math, that calculates to a power-play shooting percentage of nearly 40 percent! Go to Goals By Type on Frozen Tools and you’ll see 17 of Kreider’s 52 goals were tip-in goals. No other player had more than nine tip-in goals. I couldn’t find a breakdown of power-play goals by type, but the high tip-in total might explain the high power-play shooting percentage. (sep10)

5. Ottawa locked up another one of its core pieces on Wednesday as they signed center/winger Tim Stützle to an eight-year deal worth north of $8M a year on the cap. The third overall pick from 2020 has one year left on his entry-level deal, managed 22 goals and 36 assists last season, and is primed to start the year on the second line for Ottawa with Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux.

For cap league owners, like the extension given to Tage Thompson, there’s a big decision to make. Not that the two are on comparable development curves given the age difference, but projecting their future after a breakout season is one thread they do have in common. A monster pay raise over what they had been making is another.

For that reason, it’s worth looking at what Stützle has done so far in his career, what others like him have done for their careers, and whether he has the upside to justify the cap hit he’ll carry after the 2022-23 season. Follow the link for the deep dive… (sep9)

6. Conor Timmins does seem like a forgotten prospect. It’s hard to blame anyone, as he turns 24 in a week and has just 39 NHL games to his name. But the injuries – concussion problems, knee surgery – have severely limited his ability to not just stay on the ice, but to develop.

It is worth noting that in his one full-ish season in the AHL, he had 27 points in 40 games. In his Draft and Draft+1 years in the OHL, he was just shy of a point per game. He also looked good for Colorado in limited action in the COVID 2021 campaign. Arizona seems committed to trading Jakob Chychrun at some point and Shayne Gostisbehere is a trade candidate himself. If he can stay healthy, could Timmins be a year away from a prime role on this blue line? It’ll be interesting to follow his season. (sep9)

7. If there is one thing that I don’t really like discussing in fantasy hockey, it’s goaltending. The position is fairly random and my personal opinion is that there might be 5-6 great goalies, a couple of them in not-so-great spots, and the next 20 guys are relatively the same, with their respective teams being a big influence. Most of what differentiates them is a hefty dose of luck over a six-month fantasy season.

But it is a very important part of the fantasy game so be sure to read what other writers and editors are saying around here. Alex MacLean took part of his Ramblings to talk about bargain goalies while Brennan’s ‘Eastern Edge’ column tiered the East’s goalies from elite to forgettable.

Let’s take a bit of time to look at some potential landmines. For now, we’ll keep using ADP data from Underdog Fantasy and focus on a few top-25 goalies.

Connor Hellebuyck: This has nothing to do with Hellebuyck as a goalie. He’s long been a personal favourite of mine to watch and when he’s at the top of his game, there might only be a couple goalies in the league I’d rather have on my team. The problem is what surrounds him.

Last year, per Natural Stat Trick, the Jets were 26^th in expected goals against at 5-on-5. What saved them were Hellebuyck and Eric Comrie combining for a .923 save percentage, nestled between Calgary’s and Tampa Bay’s duos. From Evolving Hockey, over the last three years, Hellebuyck leads all goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx, 48.3). That number is more than double Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s (22.7) in a similar amount of ice time. One reason for that is Winnipeg has been so much worse defensively than Tampa Bay that Hellebuyck has to do a lot of extra work to just keep the Jets afloat. And, despite Helle playing so well individually, the Jets’ poor defensive play has led to him having an overall save percentage in those three seasons (.916) worse than Vasy’s (.919).

Pierre-Luc Dubois could be traded at anytime during the season. The Jets did almost nothing in the offseason to improve the roster, despite having traded Andrew Copp last year and missing playoffs. If Hellebuyck is anything other than an elite goalie, this team will likely be poor enough defensively to absolutely torpedo his fantasy value. If I don’t draft a goalie from the Igor/Vasy/Juuse tier, this isn’t where I’m spending my draft capital. (sep8)

8. Tristan Jarry: Over his three full-ish seasons, Jarry is tied with Philipp Grubauer and Carter Hart in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5, one indicator of goalie talent. His overall save percentage has been strong but it’s also worth noting his GSAx in those three years slightly edges Jordan Binnington and is lower than Jonathan Quick. I would wager a good chunk of his performance has been from a very good team in front of him.

The big issue is what to make of the Penguins. Jeff Petry turns 35 in December, at which point he, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang will all be 35+ years old. There is always the question of when the floor falls through, whether injury, under-performance from age-related decline, or both. If the team in front of him isn’t high-end defensively like they were last year, can he be great? Anything can happen with goalies, but this is a nervous situation for me. He’s going late enough that he’s unlikely to be a top-10 netminder off the board, so the draft capital isn’t Hellebuyck-esque. With that said, the questions about the age of the core of the Penguins will persist and he’ll be someone’s number-1 fantasy goalie rostered, just not mine. (sep8)

9. Elvis Merzlikins: There is a lot of hubbub about the Blue Jackets heading into the season, largely because of the Johnny Gaudreau signing. We should note that the only team in 2021-22 with a worse goals against and expected goals against rate at 5-on-5 than Columbus was the Arizona Coyotes. To address this problem, they traded Oliver Bjorkstrand and signed Erik Gudbranson. As a couple friends of mine might say, “Ok *thumbs up*”.

I get that once we get past the first dozen goalies (I’d argue earlier but generally speaking), we’re taking a lot of chances on our goalies anyway. With that in mind, taking Merzlikins after names like Jarry, Bobrovsky, or Binnington doesn’t feel like a reach in any sense. I guess my problem is just how good will Columbus be defensively in 2022-23? They’d have to improve over half the league just to be average on the back end and that’s a significant one-year jump. It’s the Hellebuyck problem magnified.

Merzlikins is the number-1 goalie here and I do think he’s good enough that if the Jackets improve in their own zone, he can be a top-20 fantasy goalie. There are also some young, developing players that could help a lot in this regard if they start realizing their potential. But if he’s not playing to an elite level, and the team doesn’t take a big step forward, this could end up being a mess. (sep8)

10. John Gibson: Once upon a time, Gibson was one of the most reliable goalies in the league. In his first five full-ish years, he never posted a save percentage lower than .914, and was .920 or higher in three straight campaigns. It seems some people still think of him as a high-end goalie despite him not posting a single .905-or-better season in three straight years. In that span, his GSAx is much worse than Sergei Bobrovsky‘s in a similar TOI total. By high danger save percentage, he’s in the middle of the league. He hasn’t been elite for quite some time now.

We can’t blame it all on a bad Ducks team, either: Darcy Kuemper had a .922 save percentage from 2018-2021 in Arizona while Hellebuyck hasn’t been below .910 for five straight seasons. I wouldn’t have a problem saying, “Gibson didn’t have a good season because of the team in front of him.” I do have a problem saying, “Gibson hasn’t been good since 2018-19 because of the team in front of him.”

The question is how much we think they’ve improved. Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras, and Troy Terry are all a year older, they added Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, and John Klingberg in the offseason, and have Mason McTavish on the way. It is obvious they got a lot better offensively but how much better is this bottom-10 team defensively?

I would wager Gibson will be a popular goalie fantasy choice among people that wait to take their goaltending duos/trios. He’s the unquestioned number-1 on a team that looks to be improving. But the Kings are also improving (and were much better last year anyway), Calgary and Edmonton are looking to run it back, Seattle did a lot of work in the offseason, Vegas could rebound, and Vancouver was much better under Bruce Boudreau. Anaheim could improve and still not be a top-5 team in their own division. How much belief the individual has in the progress of the Ducks will likely determine whether to draft Gibson, we’re just not sure if he’s still elite or not. (sep8)

11. Matt Murray: First, I will say that the ADP is a lot more palatable than I thought it was going to be. His Underdog ADP is 21^st goalie off the board, in a tier with names like Ville Husso and Pavel Françouz. Considering last year at this time, Jack Campbell – a 30-year-old with 78 career starts – was going as a top-10 or top-12 goalie off the board, being able to take Murray somewhere between the 18^th and 25^th goalies is much more acceptable.

There have been injuries and setbacks that have marred Murray’s NHL career. With that said, he’s had one really good season and that was 2016-17. That’s five years ago. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s still just 28. There isn’t reason to write him off, but there is a question of whether he can recapture his old Pittsburgh magic. Playing behind an elite Toronto team will afford him the opportunity to find his game, but that’s a double-edged sword. Neither he nor Ilya Samsonov will start 60-plus games, but this is a Cup contender. The majority of starts will go to the goalie that is playing well. Nothing is guaranteed for Murray.

Again, at his ADP, it’s hard to really argue with drafting him. Even if he’s average, an elite team in front of him will pay off his fantasy value. But he needs to be better than he’s been for years now (in aggregate) and Samsonov could greatly cut into his workload. There are concerns here. (sep8)

12. When talking about some of these later goalies, I do think the better idea is to just grab the tandems. Draft both Murray and Samsonov and have them be the aggregate second goalie on your fantasy roster. Ditto with Françouz/Georgiev in Colorado and Swayman/Ullmark in Boston. Though the Boston injuries worry me, it’s worth remembering this team started slow in 2021-22, being 16^th in points percentage through Christmas; they were 7^th from Christmas onward. Even if the team has another slow start this year, they could be a completely different team after the first month or so.

This is a unique year, it seems. Colorado, Toronto, and Boston all look to be running some sort of tandem and if Boston can get healthy, they could all be Cup contenders. Being able to lock down one of those duos could be a cheap way to lock up the goaltending situation from an (hopefully) elite team. If injuries or under-performance hit either goalie in the duo, you have the other as a sure-fire starter on a contender. To me, this seems an especially good year to try to go the tandem route with your second goalie slot in the fantasy game. (sep8)

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13. Every year I put together a bit of a schedule planner for myself to look ahead to the games played by each NHL team in the fantasy finals weeks. The last few years it has been less useful with any planning around Covid schedules being a complete crapshoot.

This year though we can anticipate (with our fingers crossed) from the get-go that the schedule should remain static through the year. That means that we can plan ahead more than we have been able to of late.

Keep in mind, that planning for head-to-head playoffs is not something to do much of at the draft. If it becomes the focus, it becomes your downfall. The tradeoff in having a lot of players with good H2H schedules, is that those extra games are packed at the end, instead of being during the bulk of the season when you’re trying to compete to get to the playoffs in the first place. You can’t win if you’re not in, so that has to remain the primary focus. With that in mind, let’s follow the link as we dig into a few schedule notes… (sep7)

14. One aspect of fantasy hockey drafting that can sometimes get overlooked is team stacking. Simply, it’s just drafting a handful of top-end players from the same franchise to try and capitalize on one of the top offensive teams in the league. We are not talking about the very obvious situations, either. To tell someone, “Simply draft Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, or Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar” isn’t very helpful. Unless you’re in a four-team league, or some sort of keeper/dynasty format, having those pairs on your roster is virtually impossible.

So, let’s talk about stacks, baby. Let’s talk about some teams and players to target to try and get those high-end players from high-end teams that aren’t necessarily thought of in that sense. We’ll ignore the usual suspects in Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Toronto, and also spots we talked about last season in Florida, Minnesota, and Calgary. We’ll focus on guys and teams that we can actually pick in 12-team leagues without wasting all our top picks. For now, I’ll continue to use ADP data from Underdog Fantasy I referenced last week. I don’t fully trust Yahoo! ADP this early because of auto-drafters and Underdog now has over 100 cash leagues drafted, which is a decent sample. As a reminder, Underdog uses a points system with points for goals (6), assists (4), power play points (0.5), shots (1), hits (0.5), blocks (1), wins (6), saves (0.6), and goals against (-3). It’s not perfect, but it’s a good start for now. We’ll look at five teams that should at least be considered for fantasy stacks.

First, I want to talk about a few teams I am not targeting for stacks. (sep6)

15. Ottawa – This franchise seems to be the darling of the offseason by trading for Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux. There are a number of issues, though. The obvious one is something we’ve talked about here at Dobber Hockey often: the Hockey Canada sexual assault cases could result in suspensions in two Senators players, one of them a prominent fantasy asset. We could draft them and not have them play a game this year, or not draft them and have them play the full season. There’s too much uncertainty and I think the community in general is far too high on this group from a value perspective. (sep6)

16. Boston – Injuries are just way too prominent. We could see a couple months missed from Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy, two key cogs on the top PP unit, and there’s no telling how they’ll perform when they return. In H2H/playoff formats, I could see the argument, but your team has to get there first and there are enough moving parts that if I’m drafting just a couple fantasy teams, I am not stacking from the Bruins. (sep6)

17. Vegas – Just going by early ADP, it seems the value is being sucked out of Jack Eichel. He is going very highly and there’s no guarantee that team is as good as it was a couple years ago, especially with Mark Stone‘s health up in the air. Combine that with a muddled power play situation for Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, and this is another case where if I’m only drafting a couple teams, I’m bypassing the Golden Knights.

[Follow the link for more on team stacking…] (sep6)

18.  In reviewing the teams again last week in terms of projected standings and projected offense, I got a really good feel for the haves and the have-nots. And the list of teams is, of course, obvious. But let’s review the situation and give some odds.

Let’s get one thing out of the way right now. I don’t have last year’s bottom dweller in the mix. Montreal is in the clear. They’re not a playoff team. Not even close. But they aren’t going to be in the mix. In fact, I have six teams finishing below them in the standings and five of those teams have a real shot.

Some significant oddsmakers offer the following odds as of last week: Arizona and Chicago each at 3-1, Montreal at 5-1 and Buffalo at 10-1. Way off. Buffalo is safely out of the mix and are closer to a playoff spot than they are to finishing last overall. No, they’ll still fall about 13 points short of a playoff spot and finish 13^th in the East – but they’ll be nowhere near last overall.

Website “Tankathon” has Chicago at 18.5%, Arizona at 13.5%, San Jose at 11.5%, Montreal at 9.5% and Buffalo at 8.5%.

All these people are wrong. I’m the only one who will be right, of course. Let me help you place some fun little wagers on whatever gambling site gives you the nicest odds. My partners, if you want to support me with any clicks (hint hint) are: BetMGM, bet365, Caesars and Unibet. (sep5)

19. Out of the mix for Bedard:

Buffalo – Come on. This steadily improving team is coming off a 75-point season. A full season of health from Alex Tuch and Casey Mittelstadt, full seasons from Jack Quinn, Owen Power, Peyton Krebs – and to me they upgraded in net with Eric Comrie, who will begin the season as the backup but end it as the starter make no mistake. And oddsmakers think that this team will take a step back? How stupid are these people? To get in the Bedard mix, at least in terms of the best lottery odds, you have to be at 60 points or less. Buffalo just had 75 and they’re a better team this season. So stop putting the Sabres into this conversation.

Montreal – The Habs finished the season 14-19-3 under Martin St. Louis. They were 8-30-8 before that. The ‘real’ Cole Caufield has arrived, Jonathan Drouin is healthy and entering his contract year, plus the team added Kirby Dach. If they trade a forward to clear some room, then Juraj Slafkovsky can also be added to the roster too. Subtract Jeff Petry but add Mike Matheson and Justin Barron. This team won’t make the playoffs but they’re safely above the 60-point threshold.

NY Islanders – I probably have the Isles ranked lower than most teams. Yes, they have a new coach and they also boast the second-best goalie in the league for my money, so this could go in either direction. But honestly, after Mat Barzal and Noah Dobson, this team has zero star power. And they did nothing this offseason. Literally nothing. By that logic, I could move them all the way to dead last. But this is also the team that made it to the semi-finals a year ago (quite literally the same team – Lou really does change absolutely nothing), so there is no way they get that low. Expect plenty of 2-1 victories – just not enough to get into the playoffs. (sep5)

20. In the mix for Bedard:

Arizona – Nothing much has changed for the Coyotes, who finished with 57 points last season. But I have them improving simply from within their current roster. Not nearly as much as the Sabres, but definitely more than the Islanders. Clayton Keller has really come into his own, starting at about the 20-game mark last season. Ditto for Nick Schmaltz. And Barrett Hayton appears to be ready to take another step. They don’t have a Krebs nor a Quinn, but they do have lesser-lights such as Nathan Smith and Jack McBain. They also have addition by subtraction, no longer having to play Phil Kessel or Loui Eriksson. Give them a slight uptick in their final total for 2022-23. Odds: 15-1

Seattle – A full season from Matty Beniers and Jaden Schwartz, plus the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky and Shane Wright have made this a better team. But they are in a division against Edmonton, Calgary, Vegas, Los Angeles and Vancouver. To me, those five teams either outright improved on the ice, or they got their act together enough (i.e. Vancouver hiring Bruce Boudreau) to ensure that more wins will be had. I think Seattle has some tougher games this year, albeit with a better roster to face it. Odds: 12-1 (sep5)

21. In the mix for Bedard (continued):

San Jose – Somehow, this underwhelming roster cobbled together 77 points last season. They did well in adding Kaapo Kahkonen and I think he’ll do a good job. But they traded away Brent Burns and oddly released their top rookie last season in Jonathan Dahlen. Their most promising rookie coming this year (in my books), Sasha Chmelevski, didn’t even bother negotiating a contract – he just fled to the KHL. And he was born in California! I don’t know how the Sharks got 77 points, but they’re getting less this time around. Perhaps as few as 60. Odds: 12-1

Philadelphia – The bottom line is that the Flyers lost Claude Giroux and Oskar Lindblom and added Tony DeAngelo and technically Sean Couturier (who missed much of last season). They have Joel Farabee and Bobby Brink starting the season off sidelined. Carter Hart still hasn’t gotten his act together. Philadelphia earned 61 points in 2021-22 and I’m not sure they’re going to add anything to that. In fact, look for them to sink a little further. Odds: 8-1

Chicago – Only a lottery win from another contender will take Bedard from this team. The new GM Kyle Davidson is running this team like a fantasy squad. He’s made the decision to tank. And while most NHL GMs make this decision and then carefully trade their assets over the course of a full year, fantasy GMs tend to do it all at once in what we call a “fire sale”. Kyle Davidson is a fantasy GM. Gone are Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat, Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalik. Inbound are castoffs like Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou, Jack Johnson and Colin Blackwell. Their goaltending duo will be Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock. And while I don’t mind the skill level of that pair, both of them are quite injury prone and neither can be counted on to start 40 games. Davidson isn’t even trying to hide the fact that he’s tanking. Odds: 3-1 (sep5)

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