Tuesday Game Picks: Expect Goals in New Jersey

Will McLean

2022-10-18

The first week of the NHL season is in the rearview mirror and I'm ready for another. Tonight, we get an excellent slate of eight games, which is a treat for a Tuesday night. Tonight, I'll be focusing most of my attention on the Anaheim Ducks @ New Jersey Devils game, I think there are a few interesting betting opportunities there. After that game I'll be tuning into the Buffalo Sabres @ Edmonton Oilers game, every chance I get to watch Connor McDavid, I take it.

Below I will highlight a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection for tonight's games. Last Tuesday saw us go 2-1, winning the Gold and Bronze picks, hopefully, we can improve on that tonight.

Gold Selection

Anaheim Ducks @ New Jersey Devils – Pick: Over 5.5 (-140)

The first week of the season hasn't been very pretty for these two teams. The Devils are winless in their two games and the Ducks have won one of three. These two teams are in similar positions as they have spent multiple years at the bottom of the standings, and now they are hoping to see some progression toward contending for the playoffs. Also, they both have a lot of young talent that needs to take the next step and prove they are capable of carrying their teams to playoff contention. Although neither team should make the playoffs this season, there needs to be some improvement from the past few years.

This pick is based on a small sample size (five games), but based on those games, this pick looks terrific to me. The Ducks have played three games so far, and in those three games, there have been a total of 27 goals scored. That's right, in the Ducks first three games, there has been an average of nine goals scored each game. That's a lot. The Devils aren't that far behind, in their two games, there have been 14 goals scored, for an average of seven goals per game. Also, the Ducks are playing their second game of a back-to-back, which means Anthony Stolarz probably gets the start tonight, which might help the Devils score a few more for us. 

Silver Selection

Anaheim Ducks @ New Jersey Devils – Pick: Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 Shots (-145)

Dougie Hamilton is off to a good start in his second season with the Devils after a slightly disappointing first year. It shouldn't be shocking that his first season with the Devils didn't quite live up to expectations. Dougie went from quarterbacking the powerplay of the Stanley Cup contending Carolina Hurricanes to sometimes quarterbacking the powerplay for the Devils, a lottery team. With the expectations a little bit higher this year in New Jersey, I expect the Devils to lean on Dougie a little more.

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Dougie has had three or more shots in both games for the Devils this season, and two games isn't much to go on but it's a start. At least to start the season, it looks like the Devils are leaning on Dougie to run their power play. Last year he averaged 2:30 power-play minutes per game, and so far this season he is averaging 3:27 minutes on the powerplay per game. Having an extra minute on the power play gives him even more opportunity to shoot the puck. Probably the biggest reason to trust Dougie here is because of the team he is playing against. The Ducks either don't know how to play defence, or they don't want to. The Ducks have been scored on 17 times in three games. A part of the reason they've been getting scored on so much is the amount of shots they are allowing. They are allowing an average of 43 shots against per game, that's a ridiculous amount. With how bad the Ducks have looked defensively, and how offensively inclined Dougie is, this looks like a game where he could have a big night.

Bronze Selection

Buffalo Sabres @ Edmonton Oilers – Pick: Oilers in Regulation (-147)

The Sabres have been getting a little bit of love recently, their prospect pool is one of the deepest in the league, and they are looking to finally be on the upswing. Ever since Don Granato took over as head coach, they seem to compete a lot harder and actually enjoy going to the rink. The Oilers come into this season with the same aspirations as last year: to win the Stanley Cup. After losing out in the Conference Finals, they will be looking to improve on that finish this year.

There aren't many concrete stats I'm using to make this pick. The Oilers are a true Stanley Cup contender, and the Sabres are still a very young, rebuilding team. The Oilers are on home ice tonight, where they finished last season by winning 15 of their last 16 home games. If they can continue that hot streak on home ice, the Oilers should get us the win tonight.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 20 - 17:04 CAR vs NYI
Apr 20 - 20:04 BOS vs TOR

Starting Goalies

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ELIAS PETTERSSON VAN
J.T. MILLER VAN
LANE HUTSON MTL
SETH JARVIS CAR
EVAN BOUCHARD EDM

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FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
ILYA SOROKIN NYI

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22.1 ROBERT THOMAS BRAYDEN SCHENN ZACK BOLDUC
21.4 BRANDON SAAD JORDAN KYROU PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
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