In yesterday's Ramblings, we went over some early numbers from different players and lines to look for some early indications of where to pay attention. As mentioned in that Ramblings, it can take several weeks for some numbers to stabilize but if fantasy owners wait several weeks before making decisions on certain players, they could fall too far behind their league mates in the chase for a title.

Despite a slew of games last night, there wasn't much news to discuss other than teams releasing their new retro jerseys. Let's take a bit of time to go through some more numbers we need to follow from key fantasy options. Data from either our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick and are as of Thursday afternoon.

Michael Bunting

Most forwards typically land anywhere from 55-65% of the shots that they take. That is the ratio between shot attempts and shots on goal. Last year, roughly three-quarters of all regular forwards fell in this range and just 9 of 402 forwards in the sample were under 50%. No one was below 47%. In other words, if any player goes through a small stretch where they're landing under 50% of the shots they take on goal, that probably won't last very long.

So far in the 2022-23 season, Michael Bunting has 23 shots attempts but just seven of those have hit the net. That low hit rate of 30% is clearly something that will not persist, and if he were in a normal 60% range, he would have 14 shots in four games, a very stout total.

Bunting is off to a fine season as it is with two points and five hits in four games. Things will be a lot better once he starts naturally hitting the net a lot more. The only question is if he stays where he is given the Leafs' sluggish start to the year. As long as he's skating with Auston Matthews, check the waiver wire to see if he's been dropped yet. He very easily could see a big upturn coming in very short order.

Joel Farabee

At nearly the other end of the shot spectrum is Joel Farabee. He has 13 shots on goal in four games skating over 20 minutes a night. That all seems great, right? The issue is that he's only taken 15 shot attempts in those four games. Even at the high end of the scale – a 65% hit rate – he'd have 10 shots in four games, and 2.5 shots per game isn't anything special. In reality, his shot attempt rate of 10.8 per 60 minutes, a rate that would be the lowest of his young career if it persisted.

Farabee is one of the more intriguing fantasy cases in the early parts of the season. John Tortorella coming in, plus the skater's injury status, made his standing on the roster very open to interpretation. Despite all that, the 22-year-old has made his way to the top line – important on a roster this thin – and is skating huge minutes. All that extra ice time and improved line mates should only help his fantasy profile. The question is how much he can actually produce on a team that is off to a good start largely thanks to goaltending.

Even with the low per-minute shot rate, Farabee should still be able to rack up the shots if he skates 20 minutes a night. As in, a full season could have him push 300. The problem comes from using his per-game stats this early in the season, rather than per-minute and identifying his hit rate, and then having that ice time decline. He is surely a player to follow closely in the coming weeks as the season settles a bit more.

James Reimer

Things may have changed in the Sharks-Rangers game last night – more on that game below – but so far on the season, Reimer had saved all 17 shots he faced on the penalty kill. That is, not a single PP goal allowed despite facing 5-6 shots per game. That is, uh, exceptional goaltending and obviously not something that will maintain much longer.

Here is the curious part of all this: Remier led the league in PK save percentage last year at .930. That is an *exceptional* save percentage while short-handed. Heck, that's an elite save percentage at 5-on-5, let alone down a man or two. In fact, from 2019-22, he was third among all goalies in PK save percentage, trailing Mike Smith (seriously) and Igor Shesterkin, with Reimer coming in at .897. Even at .897, that mark to this point of the season would have added two goals to his record, drop his overall save percentage 20 points, and boost his goal against average over 3.7.

All that is to say, now might be the time to get away from Reimer. This is a bad Sharks team, he's had a very good run to start the year, and the zero wins despite all that he's done should be the canary in the coal mine. He wouldn't be on most fantasy rosters to be relied upon but there are better options for depth.

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With all the injuries that Boston suffered in the offseason we can be remiss for having forgotten who is returning and when. The Bruins got some excellent news Thursday on Matt Grzelcyk:

Matt Grzelcyk is in tonight vs. ANA.

Studnicka also in, at C, with Coyle shifting to the wing.

— Amalie Benjamin (@AmalieBenjamin) October 20, 2022

He didn't play big minutes for them but I'm wondering out loud if he doesn't eventually get a look on the top PP. It's an experiment that has been tried, and discarded, before, but they're still biding time for Charlie McAvoy. Just something to watch for in the coming games, as they do get Detroit and Columbus next week.

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Nils Höglander was scratched

Boudreau explaining the Höglander scratch #Canucks pic.twitter.com/zAlkm9PrZR

— Harman Dayal (@harmandayal2) October 20, 2022

It seems there are a lot of young, promising players are not doing well right now. Alexander Holtz was scratched on Thursday night, Arthur Kaliyev is up to the third line but playing 10 minutes a night, Connor McMichael needed several injuries to crack the lineup, Jack Quinn has been scratched, and so on. It's a reminder how hard it is to play heavy minutes consistently in this league and how rare it is for most young players to stand out early.

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Cole Caufield scored Montreal's second of the game in their win over Arizona, and we were provided with this Caufield goals stat:

Cole Caufield scored his 26th goal since Martin St. Louis took over behind the bench on Feb. 10 – only Kirill Kaprizov (31), Auston Matthews (30), Elias Lindholm (28) and Steven Stamkos (28) have more over that span.#NHLStats: https://t.co/Pncf5d9EaX https://t.co/F25zE8sYu5

📢 advertisement:

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 20, 2022

Speaking of young players who have been struggling, it is a remarkable turnaround for Caufield. His future is looking very bright, considering he doesn't turn 22 until January.  

It was a 6-2 margin over the Coyotes with six different scores, including Jujaj Slafkovsky's first of his career and Sean Monahan's second of the season. In fact, the only players with multi-point games were from Arizona as Travis Boyd had a goal and an assist while Lawson Crouse had a couple helpers.

Jake Allen saved 25 of 27 in the win while Jordan Harris went plus-3 with four shots, four blocks, and a hit.

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Calvin Petersen was pulled after allowing three goals on nine shots as his Los Angeles Kings lost 6-1 to Pittsburgh. Again, no Pittsburgh forward had a multi-point game, though Jeff Petry had his best game as a Penguin: one goa, two assists, three shots, two blocks, and five hits. It was a monster fantasy performance for a guy who really turned things around in the second half of last season.

Tristan Jarry saved 39 of 40 shots in a fantastic performance for Pittsburgh. He now has three wins in three starts this year, allowing just seven goals on 105 shots, or a .952 save percentage. His fantasy owners have to be more than thrilled so far this season.

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Columbus came back from a 2-0 deficit at home against Nashville, scored four goals in the third period, and took the game 5-3. Johnny Gaudreau had a pair of goals, including the empty netter, giving him four goals and 18 shots in five games. The team hasn't looked great each night but Gaudreau certainly has been as advertised thus far.

Nick Blankenburg, playing in just his ninth NHL game, had a goal and an assist from the blue line, having two shots total, two blocks, and a pair of hits. He skated under 16 minutes so there may not be much here fantasy-wise immediately, but he's certainly a guy to monitor on a blue line that needs guys to step up for them.

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Drake Batherson had his first multi-goal game of the season, scoring twice in Ottawa's 5-2 win over Washington. Both were power-play goals and both were assisted by Brady Tkachuk. The younger Tkachuk added eight shots, two PIMs, and three hits. He now has six points in four games with 19 shots and 15 hits. He has certainly brought the monster production fantasy players were hoping for this season from the 23-year-old.

Alex DeBrincat had a goal and an assist, managing five total shots with a hit. It was his first tally as a Senator and he's now up to four points and 20 shots in four games.

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An overtime goal from Erik Karlsson lifted the Sharks to a 3-2 win over the Rangers. No, the Rangers did not score on the power play, but Artemi Panarin scored his third goal while Filip Chytil managed his second. Karlsson is now up to five points in six games but his peripherals are not looking strong: in his six contests, Karlsson has seven shots, five blocks, and one hit. He isn't drafted much for peripherals but just be wary of his value in multi-cat formats. Even a 50-point season might not mean as much as would hope.

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In his first game of the season, Nicholas Robertson scored twice, including the overtime winner, as Toronto skated out of their rink with a 3-2 victory over Dallas. He had four total shots and three hits in 14:24 of ice time, skating often with John Tavares. Now would be the time to check the waiver wires if you need some depth wing help.

The aforementioned Bunting had a pair of helpers, two shots, and a hit in a decent fantasy night for him.

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Linus Ullmark and John Gibson combined for 65 saves on 67 shots but it was the Boston Bruins that took the 2-1 win in a shootout over the Anaheim Ducks. Frank Vatrano scored the only Ducks goal, putting up five total shots with three hits. He now has three goals, 14 shots, and six hits in five games, a decent beginning to his fantasy campaign.

The returning Grzelcyk played just over 20 minutes in the overtime affair, fourth among Bruins defencemen. He had an assist, two shots, and four blocks, so not a bad evening at the office.