Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

—

1. The updated salary cap keeper rankings for skaters were posted on the 25^th. Even with Moritz Seider‘s slow start, he’s still holding off Trevor Zegras for the top spot in the skater rankings this month. The value you’re getting for an offensive Dman with his upside on a rookie contract – not just this year, but for next year, too – is irreplaceable. No matter what he signs for on his next deal, it will be worth it. If he was eligible to sign an extension today to kick in next summer, it would be projected at $6.2 million per year. That is only going to rise as he gets closer to his entry level deal expiring.

I like Aaron Ekblad and his mega-deal coming off his entry-level contract as a comparable. Ekblad was a top-pair defenceman at that point, though his offence hadn’t quite shone in the way Seider’s already has. Ekblad’s cap hit at the time that contract was signed was over 10% of the total team cap. For Seider to match that in signing a contract to kick in for fall of 2024, with the cap expected to balloon in the meantime, we could be looking at an AAV over $9 million.

If you look at more recent comparables with Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Quinn Hughes, it’s not difficult to see that the average cap hit of the top young defencemen may already be there. Seider hasn’t yet put up the same point totals as these players, but there aren’t a lot of perfect comparables for him at this point. Overall, an eight-figure AAV for Seider isn’t out of the question at this point. Felt like I should set that expectation now for these players, because there’s a wave of massive contracts coming, and it’s going to come a lot faster than many of us may expect.

2. Between his own impressive play and that of his team, Linus Ullmark has been a must-start all season. Unfortunately, those who roster Ullmark might have to search for another short-term option, as the Bruins goalie was forced to leave Friday’s day game in the third period with an upper-body injury. Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said that he hoped the injuries to Ullmark and Craig Smith would only be day-to-day. The Bruins don’t play again until Tuesday, so he could be back next week pending further information. (nov26)

3. Filip Hronek has goals in four consecutive games and points in six consecutive games. He added a goal and an assist on Friday, giving him three consecutive multipoint games. Over his six-game point streak he has 10 points, which has vaulted him to a near point-per-game pace (18 points in 20 games). Yes, he mainly plays on the second power-play unit, but he also has eight power-play points on the season, including 2 PPP on Friday. The team around him is better this season, which has helped him elevate his game. Just keep in mind that his advanced stats on Frozen Tools show a lot of red, which means that his season-long production will be difficult to sustain. (nov26)

4. Jason Robertson has scored 18 goals in just 22 games. Is he a potential Rocket Richard winner? Some of his advanced stats point to a slight regression, but he’s also averaging over four shots per game, which is over a shot per game higher than last season. In addition, his line with Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz is rolling as the league’s top even-strength line. So, I think you’ll definitely want to hold onto him, even in single-season leagues. (nov26)

5. Josh Morrissey looks primed to have his best season ever, as he is one of seven defensemen that is currently at or above the point-per-game mark (minimum 10 games). He’s benefitted from some favorable advanced stats, which include a 12.5 SH% – high for both Morrissey and defensemen in general. Still, he’s grabbing first-unit power-play duties in Winnipeg while leading all Jets in icetime (23:16 ATOI). (nov26)

6. Roope Hintz has 86 points in his last 84 regular season games as he and Jason Robertson (and Joe Pavelski) continue to terrorize the Western Conference. I do think Robertson is an MVP candidate as we sit here today but Hintz is really starting to cement himself as a very productive centre. (nov25)

7. We should expect big things from Aleksander Barkov in his next 60-some games. He has 14 points in his last 12 games and his 6.8% shooting is still less than half what his three-year average was (15.1%). With some good shooting luck, Barkov legitimately could threaten 100 points this season despite the slow start. It is a testament to how well he, and most of the Panthers, have been playing in 2022-23. (nov25)

8. Ty Dellandrea has 12 points in 22 games on the season. He is no longer considered a rookie thanks to all the games he played in the Bubble season but he’s still a young prospect Dallas needed to see more from, and he’s delivered. In fact, his points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.2) is higher than wingers like David Perron, Artemi Panarin, and Timo Meier, and he doesn’t have a secondary assist yet on the campaign. His primary assist rate is top-10 in the NHL. He is off to a real good start. (nov25)

9. The Kings made the playoffs last year and are battling for second in the division with the Kraken thus far this year. Earlier this week, they were a minus-6 goal differential because over half their wins have been one-goal games, as well as seventh in the league in expected goal share at 5-on-5, between the Bruins and Rangers, but just 19^th in overall goal share. The problem is their goaltending, which is last in the league by save percentage. Just average goaltending would shave well over 10 goals against off their total and give them a better goal differential than the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Lightning.

The goaltending is why this is precarious. I think the skaters, as a whole, have turned a corner, and this team could be a contender in the West if it improves. The emergence of Gabriel Vilardi, the elite play of the second line, Kevin Fiala bringing great scoring depth and now moving to the top line, and Arthur Kaliyev finding his scoring touch have all been awesome to see. If Brandt Clarke can return and be impactful, this is a team that could be fearsome if the goaltending rights itself. I am thankful to see a team rebuild on the fly successfully but there is one major piece that could be missing. (nov25)

10. Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, and Filip Chytil have combined for just 28 points on the season, just four more points than Artemi Panarin alone. However, all three players are driving play either offensively or defensively (both in Kakko’s case) and have helped this team fill the gaps on the roster. They’ve been moved around the lineup but whether on the top two lines or as a unit on the third line, they’ve helped the Rangers be a top-10 team by expected goal share, something that plagued them last year. It has helped them weather low shooting percentages through the first quarter of the campaign. If they start finishing like they did last year, the team’s 5-on-5 goal scoring could rise as much as 20% from where it is now. That would go a long way to cementing them as a top team in the East.

Now, actually finishing those chances is the key here. All the same, if they weren’t playing as well as they are, the Rangers would have holes all over their forward lineup. Those holes are much less evident now and once the goals come this team is going to look like a wagon. (nov25)

11. One thing that had plagued the Carolina Hurricanes for years was a lack of steady goaltending. That has changed in recent seasons with the additions of Antti Raanta and Frederik Andersen. Both of those guys are free agents after the 2022-23 season, though, so the team needs to look to the future. They did that with a Pyotr Kochetkov extension: four years, $2M AAV.

This four-year deal will carry him through one year of unrestricted free agency. He has just seven NHL games to his record (heading into Wednesday night) but he’s been good in the AHL and the team obviously saw something in him with an early second-round pick in 2019. He may not have a lot of fantasy value this year when the goalies are healthy, but he very well could be the starter as soon as October 2023. He could be one of the top goalies in salary cap formats. (nov24)

12. Seth Jones returned for Chicago last Wednesday night, having missed nearly four weeks of action with a thumb injury. He has 55 points in 87 games with the team since signing a year ago, but this is a franchise scoring the fewest goals per minute in the NHL so far this season. They also might be shipping out Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews at some point as well. Jones may be in tough for much fantasy value in points-only formats, though he can still bring very solid peripherals in multi-cat formats. (nov24)

13. As a Montreal fan, I have to talk about the superlative play of Kirby Dach. When Carolina poached Jesperi Kotkaniemi and then the team saw Phillip Danault sign in Los Angeles, I was extremely worried about Montreal’s future center depth. Dach has been playing mostly the wing this year, especially since moving to the top line, but I’m still hopeful he can transition back to the middle in the next couple seasons.

Regardless, Dach was a player I was very high on when Chicago drafted him. His performance in his rookie year, combined with dominant play in the 2020 Bubble Playoffs, did nothing to quell my excitement. He was unbelievably good in transition for a rookie. But we all know what happened next: Chicago took a nosedive, Dach fought injuries for two years, and then he was shipped to Montreal for a first rounder (that the Habs got for Alexander Romanov) and a third-round pick. So far this season, he’s posted 17 points in 21 games and, at time of writing, was in the 80^th percentile for expected goal impacts, per Evolving Hockey, or a first-line rate. It is not even a quarter of a season yet, but he’s been excellent.

So, yes, thank you Chicago for trading a 22-year-old third overall pick while you start the rebuild. It’s working out great for Montreal. (nov24)

14. One thing that frustrates me about NHL coaching is breaking up good lines because other lines are playing poorly. I understand that coaches love three or four balanced lines but often it just weakens one, marginally helps another, and they’re not really better off for it. In recent seasons, Detroit with Anthony Mantha (and then Tyler Bertuzzi) with Dylan Larkin comes to mind, as does Nashville splitting up Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg, Vegas moving Reilly Smith or Jonathan Marchessault to the third line, or Buffalo separating Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson.

Dallas largely leaving the trio of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski together for a few years now has been pretty awesome. Yes, Hintz or Robertson have moved to the second line at times, but it never seemed to last, and the rewards are obvious. They are one of the best lines in the league and all three are having fantastic starts to this season.

What helps is adding Mason Marchment, Jamie Benn finding his game again on the third line, and some young prospects adding depth. All the same, seeing these three forwards play together game in and game out is something special. (nov24)

15. Sometimes, breakouts take time. I was very high on Valeri Nichushkin for years, but it took until he was 26 years old, while leaving the NHL for a time, until he finally rounded his entire game. Jordan Kyrou is another as he fought injuries and depth roles until he finally broke out last season at the age of 23. It took Troy Terry until the age of 24 to step forward as a high-end offensive player. All this is to say, it can take some time, and as years pass by, belief in a player can wane.

Enter Tage Thompson, another guy I was very high on after his first season in Buffalo way back in 2018-19. He had decent transition numbers and loved shooting the puck, he was just stuck in a depth role and was a unicorn as a scoring forward standing 6-7. Two more seasons passed, including some time down in the AHL. However, he seemed to start to find his game in the 2021 Bubble season, even if the raw production wasn’t great. Then he exploded for 38 goals and 68 points last year, continuing that offensive explosion into this year. He has finally rounded into a dual offensive threat and it’s beautiful to see.

So, thanks to Thompson for finding his game. It helps me keep belief in prospects even if they don’t pan out by 22 or 23 years old. (nov24)

16. Similar to Dallas, I am thankful that the Ducks have seen fit to leave Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry together this year. The rest of the lineup isn’t very good, but both Jamie Drysdale and Mason McTavish have looked like they’ll be very good in the near-future, and it gives them a young core to build around, even if they don’t take a step forward as a franchise in 2021-22.  

The simple fact is that watching Zegras/Terry play catch with the puck is so fun to watch. These are two guys with complementary skill sets that help them generate offense against nearly everybody and it makes the Ducks watchable night in and night out, something the team hasn’t been in a few years.

We have to wait and see if they stick with this duo all campaign as they have played together before and then been split up, but I am thankful we get to see it for now. Watching two exciting young players tear apart team defenses is a lot of fun. (nov24)

17. Morgan Rielly is going to miss four to six weeks with what sounds like an MCL issue. This could be the chance for Rasmus Sandin to get going, it could be an opportunity for Mark Giordano to get some time with the first power play unit, or it could be the push the front office needs to go out and address the need on defence. (nov23)

Although he did not record a point on Friday, Sandin was in fact on the first-unit power-play time with Rielly sidelined. On Friday, Sandin was rostered in just 15% of Yahoo leagues and 43% of Fantrax leagues, and he deserves a short-term pickup in single-season leagues with Rielly out for at least eight more games (the time that he would have to remain on LTIR). For more on Sandin, see last Friday”s Looking Ahead. 

Although he hardly ever scores, Justin Holl could be a source of increased bangers categories while Rielly is out. Holl has logged 25:03 and 23:46 over the last two games. (nov26)

18. Ilya Samsonov hasn’t played in three weeks and it looks as if it’ll be at least another few days out of action. He had been playing well until the injury, so it’ll be interesting to see how Matt Murray continues to fare in his upcoming starts. It could very well dictate whether they split starts when Samsonov returns or if the Russian netminder starts earning the heavier share of games. (nov22)

19. Jets defenceman Ville Heinola played in his first game of the season this past week after posting seven points in 11 games in the AHL. Despite that he first appeared for the Jets all the way back in 2019-20, Heinola is still just 21 years old (turning 22 in March). This is a young blueliner that hopefully just needed some time to round out his game. It would be nice to see them give him some real run at the NHL level rather than a few games at 14 minutes a night and back to the AHL. Suppose we’re going to find out soon enough. (nov22)

20. Arizona welcomed back both Jakob Chychrun and Nick Schmaltz to the lineup last Monday night. The defenceman hadn’t played since mid-March of last season with both wrist and ankle surgeries, while the forward was injured in the first game of the season and missed 15 games in between.

Getting these guys back is a big boost for the lineup, particularly for Clayton Keller. At time of writing, the team was scoring just 2.2 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with him on the ice in 2022-23. In Schmaltz’s first three seasons with Arizona, that number was 3.6 per 60 minutes whenever he and Keller were on the ice. Keller was having a good start as it is with 18 points in 16 games (now 20 in 19), but getting a good playmaker like Schmaltz back should only help keep that point rate stable.

As for Chychrun, the trade rumours persist. If he gets traded and where he ends up is another question, but he has a lot to bring in the fantasy game regardless. His previous 103 regular season games saw him manage over three shots per game, a hit per game, and 1.5 blocks per game. Even playing to a 40-point/82-game pace would be a very good fantasy season with those counting stats, potential plus/minus issues notwithstanding. (nov22)

21. Thatcher Demko, what we thought was pretty good value in a goaltender has been anything but. In fact, he has been money in the bank – if you bet against him. I did just that last week playing DFS on OwnersBox. There was just the one game that day and I could have hedged and chosen him over Jonathan Quick in one of the contests I played. But nope – Demko was a slam-dunk to have a horrible game. Heading in, he had given up four or more goals in eight of 11 games, with those other three games giving up three. So, rather than playing it safe and hedging, I went all in with Quick.

Naturally, that was the night that Demko ended his slump. And that’s the unpredictability of this year’s goalies. You can’t even count on Andrei Vasilevskiy anymore. (At time of writing) Vas had a career-low 46.2 QS% (other than prior to his becoming a starter). The only goalies I would have faith in on any given day this season are Igor Shesterkin, Linus Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin. Maybe Logan Thompson. But I do not trust Martin Jones and Vitek Vanecek – those two seem to be a house of cards in terms of performance to date.

For what it’s worth, I think Demko is going to turn it around and have a strong second half. It may take a coaching change, but not necessarily so. (nov21)

—

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.