Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

This week is the third and final part in a series gleaning insights from the Frozen Tools Usage Charts, which are available in the Advanced Stats tab of any player profile. Once you learn how to read them, these charts can communicate several useful insights at a glance. Back in June, Dobber wrote a helpful explanation for how to read the charts and interpret some of the other advanced stats listed in the profiles (ie. OZ%, PDO, IPP, xGF).

Here are Parts One (ARI, BUF, CAR, CBJ, CGY) and Two (COL, DAL, DET, EDM, NJD) in case you missed them. Part Three covers NAS, NYR, OTT, PIT, and VAN. Teams were skipped if they did not have any (or many) notable prospect insights from the usage charts.

Nashville Predators

The Predators are always a frustrating team to cover when it comes to prospects. They don't have many young players in prominent roles, and the ones who do play tend to receive limited minutes and opportunity. Nevertheless, there are some interesting names here for fantasy purposes.

First, the bangers, Tanner Jeannot (light orange bubble in the middle-left cluster) and Yakov Trenin. Both are doing fine but not great with fairly difficult defensive minutes this year. They will continue to provide decent hit totals but not a whole lot else.

Jeannot was a fantasy unicorn as a rookie in 2021-22, posting 40 points plus nearly two shots and three-and-a-half hits per game. As expected, his shooting percentage has taken a nosedive this year (19% → 7%) even though his shot rate has increased slightly. There might be some regression coming there—his S% is so high because he scores most of his goals from in tight on tips and rebounds. His underlying stats don't look optimistic, though: his IPP has fallen dramatically (75% → 45%), suggesting he is not as central as last year to goals scored while he's on the ice, and his PDO (1038) indicates he has actually been a bit lucky.

That's 20 goals for, Tanner Jeannot 👀 pic.twitter.com/0z8xktlzMS

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 18, 2022

Trenin is on track to hit his Breakout Threshold in about 40 games but what you see is likely what you get with him. Even a 25% boost in production would still land him in the mid-twenties.

Next, two players with blue-chip pedigree who have struggled for years now: Cody Glass and Eeli Tolvanen. Honestly, I'm finally starting to give up on these guys after feeling for years that there was hidden value to be had in them. Tolvanen is about 60 games away from his BT, while Glass still has over 100 games to go. Both are seeing under 13 minutes per game and have been healthy scratches recently. When they have played, Glass and Tolvanen have actually lined up together (along with Cole Smith) fairly often and done quite well as a unit, boasting a 62.5% Corsi For by outchancing the competition 30 to 18 in terms of shot attempts.

In fact, Glass actually has the strongest relative Corsi on the team, albeit in a very sheltered role. That is a positive sign, as are his low PDO (970) and high IPP (75%). But he doesn't hit, shoot, or see meaningful PP minutes, so his fantasy value is zilch unless he can work his way up into the top six. The underlying metrics suggest you could continue to stash him for now, though many leagues use 100 games for minors' eligibility, which gives him a short runway (12 more games) to work with. The former sixth-overall pick from 2017 continues to both entice and frustrate. I will likely cut ties in the one league that I own him in when he loses his minors eligibility unless he unexpectedly hits a new gear.

As his dark orange bubble suggests, Tolvanen is living in this team's basement in 2022-23, so the string of healthy scratches are not overly surprising. Every now and then he blasts a rocket of a shot top shelf on the power play and I feel a familiar surge of optimism. But whereas last year his 25-point pace was at least somewhat buoyed by his solid shot and hit totals, both have declined this year while his points have remained lacklustre. Assuming he returns to the ice soon and sticks in the lineup, he is on track to reach his BT at the end of this season. Like Glass, Tolvanen has been unlucky (987 PDO) and has a decently high IPP (67%) but he is not rosterable in fantasy at this time.

Taking playoff experience into account, Dante Fabbro is now about ten games past his BT. He has shown some offensive flair in the past—33 points in 38 games for BU in his Draft+3 year, for instance—but I'm not convinced he has a lot to offer offensively at the NHL level. Still, he does hold some intrigue as a 24-year-old defenceman who often plays alongside Preds captain Roman Josi. That partnership is not set in stone, however: last game, Fabbro played alongside depth defender Jeremy Lauzon. Further, it is concerning to see Fabbro's ice time down more than three minutes this year, just as he is supposed to be breaking out. His is a situation to monitor moving forward. There is upside here for a slightly above replacement-level fantasy defender.

Finally, a quick note on Juuso Parssinen, who has rocketed up prospect rankings seemingly out of nowhere. Hopefully you sold high on him when he popped five points in his first four games because he is now pointless in his last five, and his line with Matt Duchene and Mikael Granlund has been struggling. He is still providing decent hit and face off totals but his ceiling is likely in the middle six.

New York Rangers

I touched on Alexis Lafreniere recently over at Dobber Prospects, concluding that he makes an excellent buy low right now given his pedigree, deployment, and solid relative Corsi metrics. The offence still hasn't arrived, and he is living in the middle six and on the second power-play unit for now, but be patient: he will hit his BT in 40 games and start to show why he was the consensus top pick in 2020. His deployment and linemates continue to be preferential; the coaching staff are using him in a sheltered, offensive role, likely hoping to light a spark.

Kaapo Kakko also continues to post strong play-driving numbers against fairly tough competition but without any meaningful scoring numbers. Taking into account his 22 games of playoff experience, Kakko is currently sitting at four games over his 200-game BT. He has been quite unlucky this year (966 PDO), which suggests a slight positive regression is incoming, but his IPP continues to hum along in the uninspiring mid-fifties, indicating he is often a passenger on his line. I am less certain that he is a good buy low candidate but if the price is low enough, why not roll the dice? He is definitely an above average NHLer and remains only 21, seeing regular shifts alongside New York's top players. There is a lot to like here despite the frustrating lack of scoring.

One additional insight from the Rangers chart that jumps off the screen is how badly Braden Schneider and Zac Jones have struggled this year. They are getting sent out against other team's weakest players and still getting caved in. Nils Lundkvist was a healthy scratch recently for Dallas but has posted much stronger results than Schneider and Jones—who presumably were integral to the Rangers' decision to move on from him.

Both players are young and have less than a full season of NHL experience, so these results are not necessarily surprising. But they will have to improve quickly on a Rangers team that seems poised to contend this spring.

Ottawa Senators

The core of this team (blue bubbles in the top right) is very exciting from a fantasy perspective. Tim Stutzle is showing his colours this year as a true top-flight forward, Drake Batherson continues to impress, Brady Tkachuk has definitively silenced draft-day critics who thought Ottawa should have taken Filip Zadina (DET) instead, and Thomas Chabot continues to play the part of a bonafide number one defenceman.

Zooming in on the Sens' prospects in particular, we see Jake Sanderson (tan bubble at the top) and Shane Pinto (orange, top middle) holding their own against other team's best players. The fact that they are also providing some offence at the same time speaks to how promising these young players are.

Sanderson is getting less time on the top PP unit now that Chabot has returned from injury but he is still firmly their second option with the man advantage. And he and partner Travis Hamonic are logging big, important minutes every night. Impressively, Sanderson is averaging over 21 minutes a night as a rookie and is currently pacing for 40 points. As expected, after leading all NHL prospects in PNHLe last year, Sanderson has stepped in and made an immediate impact on this team. His stocks are only headed higher in fantasy.

GRAB THAT PUCK!!

Jake Sanderson nets his first career @NHL goal! 👏 pic.twitter.com/tWXGFucvLb

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 24, 2022

Erik Brannstrom is a player like Glass and Tolvanen who is increasingly in my dog house. We have all been waiting year after year for him to put up rosterable numbers in fantasy. With three points in 23 games, the enigmatic Swede is still disappointing poolies big time. His big blue bubble in the bottom right is encouraging, however: it shows he can provide value for this team from a sheltered role even if he doesn't put up the big scoring numbers that were expected after he came back in the Mark Stone trade with Vegas.

With 60 games to go until he hits his BT, there is still time for him to hit another offensive gear. However, with Chabot and Sanderson firmly entrenched ahead of him in the lineup for the next decade plus, it seems unlikely that Brannstrom will hold much value in fantasy barring a trade to a team where he can take on a more prominent offensive role. He reminds me of Sam Girard that way.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins don't have a lot to offer in terms of prospects but with the unfortunate health problems of Kris Letang (stroke, out indefinitely), there is an intriguing opportunity here for Jeff Petry, Pierre-Oliver Joseph, or maybe even Ty Smith. Focusing on the latter two, Joseph clearly has the inside edge over Smith in the early going to replace Letang. As the chart shows, he has done well to drive play this year—his is the blue bubble just left of Bryan Rust's. Smith, on the other hand, has spent the entire campaign so far in the AHL, posting 10 points in 19 games.

Consider me sceptical that Joseph can take the reins and become an exciting NHL PP QB. He has hovered around half-a-point-per-game over his three professional seasons in the AHL and never posted gaudy numbers back in junior—even as an overager.

Smith, on the other hand, was prolific in junior and has more than twice the NHL experience that Joseph has. He was likely rushed to the NHL by the Devils back in 2020-21, so it is actually a good sign to see him getting some time in the minors, even though that early production is hardly eye-popping.

Ty Smith: Mayor of Snipe City pic.twitter.com/VOsREbrvhg

— WBS Penguins (@WBSPenguins) November 20, 2022

Now is an excellent time to get your hands on Smith before he gets called up to the Pens and has a chance to shine on the PP with Letang out. His reputation has suffered immensely over the past few years but his build and skillset are very similar to Minnesota's Calen Addison. If Pittsburgh ever gives Smith the 73% of available PP time that Addison is currently receiving, he could very well pop off at a similar 45-point pace to the Wild rookie. Another situation to monitor closely moving forward.

Vancouver Canucks

The Andrei Kuzmenko experiment is alive and well in Vancouver. He has the best relative Corsi on the team without a ton of sheltering or offensive zone face-offs. The 26-year-old is on a 70-point pace on Vancouver's top line with Elias Pettersson. He is receiving a healthy dose of PP time on the Canucks' top unit and should continue to produce at a 60+-point pace—even with the slight regression suggested by his high PDO, unsustainably high shooting percentage, and middling IPP.

So far, Kuzmenko has performed exactly as Dobber Prospects Junior Editor Curtis Rines predicted when he pinch hit for me on this column back in the summer: better than Ilya Mikheyev, not as dynamic as Artemi Panarin. Congratulations if you picked him earlier in the fall.

KUZMENKO IN OT! Andrei Kuzmenko sneaks in behind the defense and buries a beaut to win it for Vancouver!#Canucks pic.twitter.com/XKJXq0VfPh

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) November 28, 2022

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.