Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. The trade deadline is March 3, and Jakob Chychrun is probably the name we hear the most – it’s been this way since the start of the season. The 24-year-old is just entering his prime and, for the second time in his career, is on a 60-point full-season pace. The problem is – he doesn’t play full seasons. But that’s just an aside. What we care about is what happens in the second half for Chychrun if and when he plays on a new team. Let’s assume that the injury he suffered in the fall is it for this year – his annual injury is behind him so he’ll be good to go for the final 30 games or so. He’s signed for the next two seasons so this wouldn’t be a rental, and that means he’ll bring substantial value back.

The best fit for Chychrun is obviously Edmonton. But unless they part with Evan Bouchard, they don’t have the assets to acquire him. And frankly I don’t think the Oilers have the courage to pay that price, even though it really would make a great impact. But can you imagine how well Chychrun would do there? He’d be a top producing defenseman in the race with Cale Makar for each of his next two seasons – only losing because he misses 15 games each year!

Next up for me is Los Angeles. The Kings are flush with right-shot defensemen, so why not trade Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence for Chychrun? Would Chychrun partner with Drew Doughty on the top pairing and first PP unit? Or does he upgrade the second pairing and second PP unit alongside Sean Durzi? The Kings are an underrated threat, though admittedly they should be addressing their main weakness which is between the pipes. Chychrun’s numbers would probably be the same in Los Angeles as they are in Arizona.

The worst thing to happen to fantasy owners would be for Chychrun to go where offense dies. That is to say – to the Islanders. But even still, he’ll still be a 60-point (pace) player alongside right-shot Noah Dobson. (jan30)

2. The Washington Capitals used the All-Star break to lock up Dylan Strome to a long-term deal, signing him to a five-year contract worth $25 million. After not being qualified by the rebuilding Blackhawks, Strome was able to leverage a one-year “show me” $3.5 million deal with the Capitals into something more secure. With the Capitals facing numerous injuries this season, Strome has filled in admirably with his 36 points (11 G, 25 A) currently third on the team.

I’ve made a point to retain Strome in a salary cap league because his current deal is efficient, rejecting multiple trade offers for him. That being said, I also figured that a raise would be forthcoming. Strome is ranked 141 on the current Top 200 Cap League Rankings, but that ranking will probably fall a bit this offseason. Not an inefficient cap hit by any means and perhaps the term was stretched out more than expected, but you might have to think a little harder about keeping Strome this offseason.

Although Strome is known as being wildly inconsistent, his scoring rates actually show quite the opposite. Over four of the last five seasons, Strome has averaged between 0.65 and 0.75 points per game. That’s an 82-game pace of between 53 and 60 points. Whether you keep him or drop him might depend on what pace you consider replacement-level in your league, but I also have Strome in a single-season league where I’ve streamed him a couple times and consider him a bubble player in that format. Rostering Strome in two leagues has allowed me to perhaps expand on him in my writing a bit more than I would on some other players. (feb4)

3. Since January 8, the day that both Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson made their season debuts, Strome has five points (3 G, 2 A) in 10 games, so his production has already dipped slightly now that the Caps have a fuller roster. Not surprisingly, he has also been bumped to the second power-play unit. You may also remember that Strome was a healthy scratch on January 14, which was reportedly simply a game of numbers. Yet that shouldn’t be an issue going forward now that he has the contract in hand.

Expect Strome to be given priority over players like Conor Sheary, Marcus Johansson, and Sonny Milano, all of whom are UFAs after the season. Yet with Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, and Backstrom all under contract for two more seasons after this one, breaking onto PP1 could be an issue for Strome going forward. (feb4)

4. We all know that the Vegas Golden Knights have overplayed their hand (LOL) these past few seasons in a continual attempt to upgrade their roster. Now with Mark Stone undergoing back surgery again, the Golden Knights will need to find a replacement that can click with Jack Eichel. 

With Stone out of the lineup for the past eight games, Eichel has no goals and just a single assist over that span. That’s a serious problem. Assuming Stone can’t return this season, the available cap space ($9.5 million) is there for a potential top-6 forward. But could the Golden Knights look in-house and potentially save themselves from more future cap issues? (feb4)

5. I’ll admit that this tweet from Cliffy got my attention about William Carrier being more than just a banger. Carrier has not been on a line with Eichel recently, but he has been hot recently with four points over his last four games on a pseudo-scoring line with Chandler Stephenson and Phil Kessel. Carrier has never been much of a scorer prior to that, topping out at 20 points in 63 games last season. He’s only two points shy of that total now and may even hit 30 points if he can make it through the rest of the season without injuries. Moreover, he’s already scored a career-high 12 goals this season, his first season in double-digit goals. At 28 years of age, Carrier seems to have found a new gear when it comes to scoring. Maybe a power-play point is next, as he’s never had one in his career, but he’s just starting to receive power-play time.

Hits have always been Carrier’s specialty, as he has reached 100 hits in every one of his seven NHL seasons – even ones where he has played a partial number of games. Over the past five seasons, Carrier is in the top 10 in the league in hits (896 Hits), so bangers leagues may already be familiar with him. Yet he’s a long way away from being rostered in standard leagues (2% Yahoo/12% Fantrax), so there’s a real opportunity to get on board now – particularly in bangers leagues. (feb4)

6. Zach Hyman is into the second year of his seven-year contract with the Oilers, and so far, it’s looking like one of the best free agent signings. Hyman is on pace for his first point-per-game season (60 PTS in 49 GP), and he’s been especially hot recently with 16 points in his last seven games. We knew his production could climb in Edmonton, but Dobber has had to adjust his long-term upside from 65 points before the season to 85 points for the Midseason Guide.

It's easy to suggest that Hyman is a product of teammates like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and that the Band-Aid Boy trainee will be sidelined at some point before the season ends. Yet his advanced stats show that his current scoring pace is sustainable, perhaps with the exception of the 3.6 PTS/60, which is over a point per 60 higher than it has been in previous seasons. As long as one of McDavid or Draisaitl is his linemate, and as long as he’s on the first-unit power play, Hyman has the potential to continue at his current pace. Hyman is taking over a shot per game more (3.9 SOG/GP) than any previous season, and he’s averaging career highs in power-play time (67.4 %PP) and overall minutes (20:36).

All in all, I don’t think you need to sell high. In fact, if all continues to go right for Hyman, Dobber might need to make another adjustment to that long-term upside. (feb4)

7. After being held back because of the constraints of naming players to rosters, Rasmus Dahlin was finally named to the All-Star Game. Tage Thompson‘s upper-body injury cleared the way for Dahlin, who is having a monster season with a career high in points (55) in just 49 games so far.

Only Erik Karlsson has more points than Dahlin, who will no doubt receive some Norris Trophy consideration this season. It seems like a joke that Dahlin would not be included in the league’s showcase event with those numbers. Yet when every team has to be included and two teams have been split into four teams to accommodate divisions, squeezing him in wasn’t so easy. (feb3)

8. Of course, there should be concern about Thompson, but his injury is not expected to be long term. The Sabres are on their “bye week” after the All-Star Game, which means they don’t play again until next Saturday (February 11). That should give Thompson plenty of time to rest the injury if it is truly minor. That being said, weekly leaguers may want to err on the side of caution and leave Thompson on the bench this upcoming week, even though that might be tough to do given his production this season. If possible, check for injury updates, which you can find on the Dobber News Twitter feed and Injury Ward article on Wednesdays. (feb3)

9. As mentioned earlier, the NHL trade deadline is one month away (March 3), but the recent trade by the Canucks and Islanders might spark some other trades to be consummated by the end of February. We have some time to digest what happened and what it means, so below is my take on what will happen with two of the key principals: Bo Horvat and Anthony Beauvillier. (feb3)

10. I’m in agreement with the analysis that the New York Islanders might be one of the worst places for Horvat’s fantasy value, as mentioned in the Fantasy Take. The Islanders are known as a defensive-minded outfit, currently in the bottom third in the league with under three goals per game. Barry Trotz is no longer coaching the Isles, but his fingerprints are still all over this roster.  

Yet one silver lining is that Horvat should get to be the guy on Long Island. In fact, word is that Mathew Barzal will be moved to the wing to create a true first line for the Isles. In Vancouver, Horvat was often on the second line behind Elias Pettersson and would even get pushed down to the third line when J.T. Miller was used as a center. That might not have been the case in a place like Boston or Carolina, as those teams already boast considerable depth as playoff teams and might even try to take advantage of Horvat’s defensive strengths to a significant degree.

In that regard, Horvat has never been a 50%+ OZ start player in any of his nine NHL seasons. He has been a 48 OZ% player this season, which was considerably higher than the 39-43% that he averaged over the previous four seasons. In contract, is a sky-high 77.6 OZ% player this season and hasn’t been below 59 OZ% over his last four seasons. It’s probably not a huge deal over half a season, but it’s something that could matter should Horvat choose to sign a long-term deal with the Isles.

It’s easy to suggest that Horvat will regress for the Islanders, but the fact was that he already has been on that path. He has finished his time with the Canucks with just one goal in his past seven games after scoring 30 in his first 42 games. (It should be mentioned that Horvat assisted on four goals in what turned out to be his final game with the Canucks.) The 21.7 SH% has also been brought up as a reason that the goals won’t come as easily going forward, as will a 10.9 5-on-5 SH% and 3.2 PTS/60. He’s a sell-high now if you can, but you were probably better off trying that last week without knowing where he would be moved.

With the addition of Horvat, expect Jean-Gabriel Pageau to be moved off the first-unit power play. That being said, I’d hardly consider that a reason to drop Pageau, who is a Swiss army knife-type player in multicategory leagues. Pageau is in the top-20 in hits in the entire league, with Brady Tkachuk being the only player that has more hits and more points than Pageau. In addition, Pageau is fifth in the league in both total faceoffs (1014) and faceoffs won (571), and he’s been over 50% in faceoffs won for the past eight seasons (56.3% this season). (feb3)

11. In contrast, I absolutely love this trade for Anthony Beauvillier‘s fantasy value. You can dunk on the Canucks for a million different reasons for how they’ve stumbled both on and off the ice, but at least they’ve been a reliable source of fantasy value in the scoring department. They’re a top-10 offense and a middle-of-the-pack power play that seems capable of even more. With Horvat departed and both Tanner Pearson and Ilya Mikheyev also out for the season, Beauvillier should have room to be slotted in on a scoring line. He’s only 2 percent rostered in Yahoo and 18 percent rostered in Fantrax right now, but I’d expect those numbers to climb.

One caveat: I’d like this trade even more if Bruce Boudreau were still the head coach. If Rick Tocchet is trying to establish a certain identity on the Canucks, then I don’t know that Beauvillier fits that profile. That being said, Phil Kessel isn’t the most physical player, and he and Tocchet reportedly connected. Beauvillier was in desperate need of a fresh start, and there seems to be a real opportunity in Vancouver.

One ripple of this trade will be who takes Horvat’s spot on the first-unit power play. Miller will probably take the faceoffs, while one of Beauvillier, Brock Boeser, or even Conor Garland could fill that first-unit spot. I have a feeling Boeser will get that spot back, since he’s had some success there in the past and he’s sometimes been used on PP1 this season. Yet because the Canucks will likely be playing out the string (referred to as another death march here in Vancouver), Beauvillier will likely receive his cuts on the first unit. At the very least, expect him to break the goose egg that currently sits in the PPP box of his statline.

Coincidentally, both Boeser and Garland are on the trade block at the moment. The Canucks are top-heavy with salary at the wing position, especially after the Andrei Kuzmenko extension, so trading one of Boeser or Garland could make sense if the Canucks are serious about making major changes. (feb3)

12. Wrote Michael Clifford: "Aatu Räty is the key to the Horvat deal. Beauvillier might not be a usable roster player in two years and even a turnaround just gives them a player similar to Garland or Ilya Mikheyev. A first-round pick is nice but evaluating that pick three years after it’s made is too long. It is valued once we know where that pick lands and if it’s not inside the top-10 or so, it’s not overly valuable. Whether Räty pans out will matter. His Dobber Prospects profile can be read here.

If he reaches his potential, Räty can replace Horvat in a few years, becoming a reliable two-way centre who can score 30 goals. If he doesn’t reach his potential, he might not play 100 games for the Canucks. My personal opinion is that he becomes a full-time NHLer, but whether he becomes a bottom-6 fixture or a top-6 star is up for debate." (feb2)

13. One trade chip that the Columbus Blue Jackets had was Gustav Nyquist as the winger was set to be a free agent this summer. He was having a down year with just 10 goals and 22 points, though everyone on Columbus is having a down year. Now, we get news that it looks like he is done for the season with a shoulder injury. He said he’s going to try to return but with the NHL trade deadline in a month, it seems unlikely he’s going anywhere at this point. (feb2)

14. Vegas got some bad news about Mark Stone, as per Chris Johnston:

The #VGK say that Mark Stone underwent back surgery yesterday and is out indefinitely. If he’s out for the rest of the regular season — which seems possible — the Golden Knights could open up considerable cap space by placing him on LTIR.

We will have to wait for an update on the timeline but it certainly isn’t a positive update. More will be passed along when it becomes available. (feb2)

15. The first month of 2023 is in the books and we’re at the All-Star break. At this point, the 15th annual Midseason Guide (2023) is only two weeks old now. Pick it up here! Second-half projections, prospects, free agents, trade block, advanced statistical analysis and more! This is probably the last week or so where this maintains relevance, so be sure to get it while it can still help. (feb1)

16. Over the last month, Sam Montembeault has carried a heavy load while Jake Allen was injured, starting eight-straight games, and seeing at least 38 shots in five of them. Over the second half of the season, we may see the two split starts now that Allen is back from an upper body injury, as there is no need to run with the hot hand, or try anything fancy between them.

As a result, those of you holding onto Allen or Montembeault for the volume should look to jump ship, or acquire both to lock down every start. Keep in mind that the Habs don’t play again until Feb 11^th, but then they have a stretch of five games in eight days. (feb1)

17. The Habs have already shut a few players down for the year, and may be losing even more by the Trade Deadline. Sean Monahan, Jonathan Drouin, Mike Hoffman, Joel Edmundson, David Savard, and others may be gone by the time March 4 rolls around. The team could be even worse than it is now, though there is possibly also something to be said for subtracting below-replacement-level players in the defensive zone such as Mike Hoffman. (feb1)

18.The other Sebastian Aho – sometimes known as 5ebastian Aho – is quietly on the rise for the New York Islanders on their blue line. It has been a slog for him as he first appeared in the NHL way back in 2017 (seriously!) but had just 61 regular season games to his name heading into the 2022-23 campaign. At time of writing, he was skating 19:13 a game over his last 25 games, posting seven points and 38 shots in that span. That is thanks to having one of the largest TOI increases over the last couple of months due to the injuries on the Islanders blue line. The problem is the team is allergic to scoring, so the production hasn’t been stout. It is good news for his future, though. (jan31)

19. Kevin Fiala is on pace for 27 goals and 82 points, but it sure doesn’t feel like it sometimes. His 2.7 shots per game through his first 26 games would have been a four-year low for him had it persisted. Of course, it isn’t persisting, and he has the 10^th-largest shot rate increase in this sample, ranking just outside the top-20 forwards overall. He is managing 3.5 shots per game over his last 26 contests but is shooting under 10% in that span. Imagine if this guy could get back to the 12-13% he was posting in Minnesota? He could finish the year with 30 goals and 90 points. (jan31)

20. Thanks to some injuries and underperformance, Barrett Hayton has been skating on the top line for Arizona for a few weeks now. Obviously, this has helped him grow his ice time and shot rates as he’s seen increases across the board. He has 12 points in his last 18 games dating back to Christmas, with six goals on 43 shots mixed in there. If he can be a permanent fixture of the top line, then Arizona just needs to worry about filling out around them. Though it’s also fair to wonder if this is really a long-term solution. (jan31)

21. There are a bunch of defencemen with large TOI decreases, notably some Arizona rearguards as they’ve often skated 11-7 over the last several weeks. Tony DeAngelo has the eighth-largest decrease overall, losing three and a half minutes per game. He has still been very productive, though, with 19 points in 23 contests over this second sample, with four points in his last four games. The Flyers aren’t an awful team and for all his flaws as a defenceman, DeAngelo is a very good puck mover so he shouldn’t be dumped in the fantasy game unless plus/minus is a big factor. (jan31)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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