Oh, I will eventually let the NHL draft lottery go…but not quite yet.   Thursday, I discussed how to make it more interesting than conducting a lottery in a closed room, in advance, and with mathematical formulas that no one picking the ping pong balls would likely understand.  The league needs to redefine excitement. 

Today, I'm on to draft luck. Over the past six seasons, we have clear winners and losers. I only looked at teams who picked in the top 10. Lucky? The New York Rangers, who won in two of their three opportunities, moving up a total of 15 draft positions to choose second in 2019 (Kaapo Kakko), and first in 2020 (Alexis Lafreniere).  Chicago also had two wins, moving up nine positions in 2019 (Kirby Dach), in addition to this year (likely Connor Bedard).  And New Jersey has had two successes, hitting the lottery with Jack Hughes in 2019 and Simon Nemec in 2022. 

Losers? That's easy. In the six drafts, the Anaheim Ducks have slid down a position four times out of the five that they participated, missing out on Bedard and also Matty Beniers (2021).  Historically? Yeah, the Ducks were jumped in the 2006 selections by Pittsburgh, or Sidney Crosby would've changed their franchise. Ottawa has missed two #2 chances since 2018, although their consolation prizes of Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson might have been superior to the higher-selected players.  The Senators also dropped from first overall to fourth in 2019, but they'd traded that pick, so the Colorado Avalanche could settle for Cale Makar.   Arizona has also dropped down from one second, and one third round pick.  

If we all think that fantasy hockey involves enough luck to fill a pot of gold – or not – the luck in the real-life NHL, from the lottery to hitting crossbars and referee decisions, is at least that much. 

Today has to be all about blaming the officiating up in Toronto, and there's plenty of evidence – Morgan Rielly's shot over (?) the line, Marc Staal's elbow to Mitch Marner as regulation ended, Radko Gudas' timely pulling on Calle Jarnkrok's stick…. I'll just say that the NHL, and not the on-ice zebras, took over nine minutes reviewing every angle, and then I absolutely agree that the Staal hit was interference.  But there's no denying that Auston Matthews had zero goals in this series. None of this will help Kyle Dubas, whose reign with the Leafs is likely ending. And, of the big four forwards, only John Tavares has a no-move contract. Just saying. 

Back to predictions of luck.  Here's some DraftKings choices for the one game tonight. I do think we'll see the best from both teams, and I'm thinking more like a 6-4 contest, not 2-1 – so I'll choose not to roster either goaltender.  Captain (150% cost and reward) Jordan Eberle ($10,800).  Flex players Jared McCann ($8000), Vince Dunn ($7800), and Yanni Gourde ($6200). Dallas entries Jamie Benn ($8800) and Miro Heiskanen ($8400). Yes, I'm picking the Kraken to send this series to a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Texas.

If you need the best betting advice ever, do NOT forget Mother's Day!  Your team will thank you.