Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Before we dive into what’s going to be another long summer for the Maple Leafs, let’s first give credit to the Panthers. That starts with Sergei Bobrovsky, who brought his A game in stopping 50 of 52 shots in Game 5. Top Cop Bob has been earning his salary in these playoffs, particularly recently. He’s now reeled off six consecutive quality starts while posting wins in seven of his past eight games. He was consistent as well in allowing two goals in each of the five games against Toronto. 

The Panthers and Hurricanes will now face each other in an all-Southeast Division Eastern Conference Final. Who do you like?

Our writers will make their picks for both conference finals once the Western Conference series have been decided. (may13)

2. Some tough questions lie ahead for the Leafs, who were unable to capitalize on the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Bruins being upset in the first round. Namely whether they can win with the core four, or if some kind of major surgery is needed on this roster in order to get this team deeper into the playoffs. Maybe this means one or both of Sheldon Keefe or Kyle Dubas is gone. Or either Mitch Marner or William Nylander is traded in the offseason. Or maybe Auston Matthews forces the change by not re-signing with the Leafs within the next 13 months (hello, Arizona?!) leaving a lineup that isn’t so top-heavy cap-wise. Or maybe the Leafs give it another try with everyone for at least one more season, holding their heads high for at least making it past the first round.

If Leafs fans desire change, they will point to the lack of scoring from said core four in this series. Matthews did not score a goal in the series while chipping in two assists. Marner scored a goal while adding two assists. John Tavares recorded just one assist (in Game 5). Nylander scored goals in back-to-back games while adding an assist in Game 3. There were enough shots on goal from all, particularly in Game 5, but they couldn’t get the job done in this series. For example, Matthews and Tavares combined for 50 shots in the series, but neither managed to light the lamp. (may13)

3. In stopping 40 of 43 shots in Game 5, Joseph Woll posted his second consecutive quality start. Could the Leafs find room for the him on the big club next season? Matt Murray has another season left on his contract, while Ilya Samsonov is an arbitration-eligible RFA. Do with that what you will. Woll posted a solid 2.37 GAA and .927 SV% in the AHL this season after some subpar numbers in the three seasons before that. The 24-year-old has just 13 career regular-season starts, but his NHL career 2.38 GAA and .911 SV% also show well. Also of note is that Woll will no longer be waivers-exempt next season. (may13)

4. On Thursday, it took the first overtime period of the series, but Carolina was victorious by a 3-2 margin in Game 5 thanks to a power-play goal on a Jesper Fast deflection. That pushed them to a 4-1 series victory over New Jersey and a ticket to the Eastern Conference Final for the second time in five seasons.

Teuvo Teravainen may be ready for Game 1 of the ECF, though we’ll await official confirmation. I haven’t seen anything about Andrei Svechnikov in a while, but I don’t think that’s an expectation anyone should have at this point. Either way, this team is showing itself to be truly committed to their game, and it’s paying off very well. (may12)

5. It was a great year for a Devils' team clearly on the upswing. It was the first postseason for Jack Hughes, and it was Jesper Bratt‘s first real playoff run. There are some contracts to negotiate (or not) but there are also a bevy of high-end prospects on the way, and this team will be in the mix for years to come. More on them in later columns, but it was a very successful season by most measures for the franchise. (may12)

6. The offseason fantasy reviews of each of the non-playoff teams continues. We have covered several of them already. This is a chance to give one last bit of shine to the teams we’re not talking about when the season ends.

This review will cover the successes and failures, as well as the improvements and declines, made both by players and the team. All of this, of course, is through a fantasy hockey lens. (may12)

7. Even in another non-playoff year where Arizona finished just outside the bottom-5 teams, there were a lot of good fantasy seasons.

Clayton Keller demolished previous career marks by scoring 37 goals and 49 assists, managing 20 PPPs (tied a career-high, actually), and posting 223 shots while playing all 82 games. He did set a career-best shooting percentage at 16.6%, but it was also his fourth straight year of increasing shooting percentages. Maybe he’s just learning how to score more efficiently at the NHL level as the team improves around him? Regardless, Keller finished the year as a top-50 fantasy player on Yahoo!, greatly out-performing his ADP. Oh, it was also the fifth time in the last six seasons he dressed in every single contest. His 15 games missed in 2021-22 remain the only games he’s missed since (and including) his rookie season. (may12)

8. Matias Maccelli had a tremendous rookie effort with 11 goals and 49 points in 64 games. He finished the campaign with 19 points in his final 20 games to end up where he did, and that’s first among all rookies in points per game. His playmaking was on full display as Corey Sznajder’s tracking data has Maccelli with 5.4 scoring chance assists/60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season (his rate of assisting on a teammate’s scoring chance). For comparison, Mikko Rantanen was at 5.6, Aleksander Barkov at 5.5, and Leon Draisaitl at 5.3. That is the level of playmaking we’re talking about when discussing Maccelli’s rookie season (at least at 5-on-5). He needs to round out his game, obviously, but it is an exciting start to his career. 

To a lesser degree, it was a good fantasy season out of Barrett Hayton (19-24) and Lawson Crouse (24-21) as well. For Crouse, he’s maintained his very physical play (375 hits in his last 142 games) but now has back-to-back 20-goal seasons, pacing for 25 goals every 82 games. If he can regularly post 20-20 seasons with 180 hits? That’s a fantasy banger star. (may12)

Offseason Reviews to date:

Arizona
Buffalo
Calgary
Pittsburgh
Nashville
Ottawa
Vancouver
Detroit
St. Louis
Washington

9. Now that they have the privilege of drafting Connor Bedard first overall, the Chicago Blackhawks have to go about actually building the rest of the team. It might seem a bit obvious, but we don’t need to look very far in history, or just at the present, for the teams of generational talents to not find playoff success in the near-term, or even medium-term. The easy part is over with, and though they have prospects like Lukas Reichel and Frank Nazar, prospects are exactly that until proven at the NHL level.

Some of the potential pieces are starting to be assembled as goaltender Arvid Söderblom was signed by Chicago. He managed a 0.906 save percentage in his first 13 appearances in 2022-23 before falling off hard in his last couple games, and then the demotion. It looks like he’s set to be the goaltending tandem with Petr Mrazek for 2023-24, though how valuable those starts could be is a matter for another day. The team still has lots of offseason in front of them, too. (may11)

10. There are three guys that stick out for fantasy success in Washington this year.

First, Alex Ovechkin reached the 40-goal mark for the 13^th 40-goal season of his career. He saw goal, assist, and shot-per-game declines, but he was still the only played with at least 40 goals, 30 assists, 275 shots, and 150 hits this season. In fact, he was the only player with all that and just 100 hits. That across-the-board performance still made him incredibly valuable, though he’s another guy whose value was dinged pretty hard in plus/minus formats. (may11)

11. It was also a very successful season for Dylan Strome. After being shunned by Chicago, he landed in Washington and set career-highs in goals (23), assists (42), power-play points (21), shots (154), and even improved his plus/minus from a season ago. He wasn’t an elite option or anything, but he certainly showed he can be a depth fantasy option.

Though he was eventually traded, and his fantasy value was nuked because of it, Erik Gustafsson put up 38 points in 61 games for the Caps, including 14 PPPs, after posting just 18 such points over his prior 154 games. He is a free agent after the season, and it’ll be interesting to see where he lands this summer because there’s still some fantasy goodness to be had here. Though, we have seen this trick from Gustafsson before.

The last guy to mention, though certainly not the least, is Darcy Kuemper. He came over from Colorado following their Cup victory and had a very good season: 13.2 goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey, in over 1600 shots faced. That isn’t elite, but it makes him an average full-time starter, and that’s more than a lot of teams have. He may not have finished around his ADP – depending on the league – but he wasn’t far, and considering all the injuries the team endured, that is a success. (may11)

12. The 38-year-old Brent Burns was rejuvenated this year getting away from Erik Karlsson (though Karlsson seems to have benefitted a little more from the breakup). He paced for over 60-points for the first time in four years, in spite of playing the lowest number of minutes he has seen in nearly a decade. Being able to be a little more sheltered in Carolina was a great fit for him. Not only did his scoring jump, but his shooting and his power play production jumped as well. On the flip side, his peripherals unsurprisingly dropped off putting up the lowest hit rate of his career, and the lowest bloc rate since 2014-15. I would expect those trends to continue, and another season pacing for between 55-60 points should be in the cards. (may10)

13. It’s confusing to say the least that Dougie Hamilton has averaged under 22 minutes of ice time in each of the last two campaigns, while we watch players like Burns who are 38 and still playing 23 minutes a game very effectively. We saw Dougie post his best season, but if we see the Devils continue to improve, and Hamilton (deservedly) gets a further bump in ice time, then he may be in line to build on this season’s excellent production. (may10)

14. Miro Heiskanen is one of the better all-around defensemen in the game, so when he scored 10 more points this year than his previous two seasons combined, you would think that would have put him on the short-list for the Norris. Unfortunately, this was not the case, as he remains one of the most underappreciated players in the league. He’s debatably a top-five option on defence in redraft leagues entering next year, and certainly entrenched in the top-10. I have a feeling he might not quite be ranked that way though. (may10)

15. Something to keep in mind as a late flier for next year. There should be room for Brett Howden to stick in the Vegas top-nine in 2023-2024. Him breaking out this season would be a little late from a points perspective, but the underlying numbers did take a jump for him around game 200. He then saw a change in linemates and usage this past year, which held his production down. His play in the playoffs has jumped back up with underlying numbers closer to the 2021-2022 season, and that along with the increased ice time has led to his scoring surge in the playoffs (five points in eight games). 

If he can keep the ice time above 14 minutes per game next year, then I think the scoring will follow and we could see a 45- to 55-point player. Still not draftable in a lot of leagues, but someone to keep in mind for hot streaks, and an upside for more. (may10)

16. Really unfortunate news out of Colorado with Gabriel Landeskog set to miss his second-straight season. He will be 32 for the beginning of the 2024-2025 season when it’s possible we see his return. As a physical player coming of major knee surgeries, his effectiveness even upon return would be limited. Unless a fantasy league keeps at least 250 players and has a deep IR bench, then he’s not worth holding on to at this point. (may10)

17. I will preface this next bit of the Ramblings where I want to talk about the 2023 draftees as I always do, by saying that I am not a scout. I do however play a lot of fantasy hockey, and do a lot of reading on the incoming draft class from a variety of sources to try and get an amalgamation of diverse viewpoints on each of the relevant players. With the lottery now in the rearview mirror and the draft order set, here are some thoughts on a few of the players and groupings.

Connor Bedard – Will be the first overall pick to Chicago, and should be the top pick in dynasty rookie drafts as well. In redraft leagues there will be some intrigue to his overall average draft position, but I would not be selecting him expecting any more than the 68-point-pace that Patrick Kane put up with a similarly depleted Chicago roster this past season. Dobber had a similar range on Monday, expecting production in the 60s with a likely ceiling comparative to Auston Matthews‘ 69 points from his rookie year.

[Follow the link for more of Alex Maclean's NHL Draft rambles…] (may10)

18. The most hyped NHL Draft in years, headlined by one of the most hyped players in years, had its Draft Lottery on Monday night. The winner would get the right to draft Connor Bedard first overall next month and potentially change the direction of their franchise for years. General managers were all-out tanking for this pick, to give some context as to how valued it was.

There were a couple changes at the top, but it was the Chicago Blackhawks that improved in the most important way by landing the first overall pick at the drawing. All of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Kirby Dach, Sam Lafferty, and Dylan Strome were all moved in the last year, prepping for the next era of the franchise, which will now be heralded by Bedard.

It was a blatant tank job from the summer onward and it worked. A first overall pick does not guarantee deep playoff runs but their rebuild just got supercharged. Lukas Reichel is probably a happy guy at the moment.

For more on Bedard and the rest of the top prospects, the Dobber Prospects team released their rankings of the top-64 incoming players a few weeks ago. (may9)

19. Dawson Mercer‘s fantasy value is sky-high in keeper leagues. I never thought his upside would be higher than the low-60s, but alongside Jack Hughes, this could easily top 80. Think Zach Hyman. While Hyman, not even in his wildest dreams, had an upside of more than 65 – he got there thanks to Connor McDavid. Now, Hughes is no McDavid, but because Mercer’s upside was always a little higher than where we had Hyman, the end result should be similar.

And, in what is impeccable timing – Mercer hits our ‘Breakout Threshold’ about midway through next campaign. (may8)

20. Anthony Duclair makes for an excellent buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues this summer. He had 31 goals and 58 points in 2021-22, but slipped to just nine points in 20 games this year. Keep in mind, he was sidelined for most of the season after Achilles surgery. An injury, to me, that requires at least a half-season to properly recuperate. He had a couple of premium opportunities on Sunday, cashing in on one. (may8)

21. Fun fact – looking at the NHL’s leading scorers from February onwards, the player in fourth place was Clayton Keller (45 points in 32 games).

Other names of interest showing up on that list include Casey Mittelstadt, who was 35^th on that list (31 points in 33 games), Keller’s linemate Barrett Hayton, who was 67^th (26 points in 32 games), and the aforementioned Kotkaniemi, 72^nd (25 in 32). (may8)

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