Capped: Surprising Starts for Vatrano, Chabot, and Hartman

Andrew Santillo

2023-10-26

Hello and welcome back my Salary Cap-friendlies! By now we're at the very early part of the season where you're probably scrolling up and down your roster looking at each player and pondering whether they will be on your club for the long-haul or not. For those in dynasty sure, whatcha got is whatcha got, but still there's always that sense that a player or two could be moved for one reason or another. In the very early going of the NHL season, there's different stats from players that really jump off the page. I'm not so much saying things like just how many goals Alex DeBrincat has already or just how much Jack Eichel is shooting the puck; I'm talking about the surprises on players for one reason or another. I think even though it's early we can't ignore some of what might contribute to players being a pleasant early surprise.

Frank Vatrano – C/LW – Anaheim – 29 yrs old
Contract: $3.6M – Two years remaining

During my main league's draft, Frank Vatrano went off the board much earlier than I had anticipated and remember overlooking it. A wing for Anaheim that has only gone over the 40-point mark once wasn't exactly what I was targeting for my roster but in the early going he's been a surprise for me.

I began to notice Vatrano's play standing out as that same person who drafted him told me last Sunday, and I quote, "The only way I can win the week is if Vatrano gets a hat-trick." Rarely in fantasy do we get what we want. Between his hat-trick last week and game winning goal last night in a contest where it felt like the Ducks took 37 penalties, I think we can say that Vatrano might be one of the early surprises of the season. He has been one of the higher adds in fantasy today going as high as 25% over on ESPN which is the highest, I've seen across each fantasy platform. Right now, here's his very early stats:

GP          G             A             PTS         PPP        TOI         PPTOI    SOG       HIT         BKS

6              5              1              6              1              19:17     2:04        24           12           9

I know five goals might not be enough to drop everything to make a claim with three of them coming in the same game, but for an addition to a club that may have injuries or maybe larger leagues with less opportunities on waivers I think Vatrano might make for a decent claim to make. The peripherals aren't bad either with 12 hits and nine blocks on the season which could be sustainable throughout the season when the points aren't coming. I think if all goes well this season, I don't think high 40's for a point totally isn't out of reach?

For the cap hit, it's reasonable but obviously not the very low ELC's or Vet Mins that make rotating a player in or out easy. What I do like here though is that number is low enough to where I could see clubs kicking the tires on him come deadline if his stock continues to rise. I'd say that Anaheim wouldn't part ways with a top six left-wing but by February if they're far enough out of the mix and the right offer came along, I just can't see them saying no. This is the club that moved Hampus Lindholm when I thought that he would be a part of this club moving forward so there's a chance you could see him on a contending team later this season.

Ryan Hartman – C/RW – Minnesota – 29 yrs old
Contract: $1.7M – $4M x 3yr extension to begin next season, NMC in 2024-'25, full M-NTC 2025-'27

I seemingly can't stop writing about Ryan Hartman as I highlighted him as a bounce back this season in a September Capped article and just wrote about him in last Week's Looking Ahead as an Odd Man out. I feel like maybe he'll make his way into an article every couple month or so at this rate but that's alright.   

Okay where to start here. First off, he's on the highest rostered line in DFS every time the Wild are on a slate with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. This is a player that I didn't draft in my main league but did add shortly after our draft just for that reason, the upside on the line that he centers. Being eligible for two positions doesn't hurt either. It is unfortunate that he is not on the same power play unit as his linemates but during last night's game versus Edmonton he walked away with a hat trick along with two assists which makes me think that this might be a player to add to your roster.

That's where the surprise comes in here, not just his play but his lower roster numbers for fantasy. On ESPN, 22%, Yahoo 34%, and I guess the secret is out over on Fantrax as he is closer to 70% (arguably where most dynasty leagues are so that checks out). Is this a 65-point player? I'm not ruling it out, but I also wouldn't rule out that he lands in the low 40's and what would impact that would be that he'd unable to stay healthy. Still, I think the risk is worth the reward. Minnesota typically sends their second line over the boards at home giving Hartman's line the "easier" matchups, which we love in fantasy rather than them just rolling four lines.

For salary cap purposes this season is a slam dunk as a $1.7M cap hit is easy to take on. Where it gets difficult is next year as right before this season Hartman signed a three-year extension at an AAV of $4M. Any signing that Minnesota is able to pull off I tip my cap to as they are right in the middle of dead cap hell, they are one of the clubs out there that has gone 11/7 forwards and defensemen already this season.

Thomas Chabot – D – Ottawa – 26 yrs old
Contract: $8M – Five years remaining

Thomas Chabot was taken in all four of my drafts, around an area we'll call the "Robert Thomas zone", so somewhere near the end of drafts or those just looking to grab a defenseman who will play big minutes. I think the surprise here is just looking across different leagues at the roster numbers of Thomas Chabot compared to his teammate Jake Sanderson.

I think even last season before Chabot dealt with injuries that the Senators began moving Sanderson into his role of quarterbacking Ottawa's top power play unit and this season is much the same. So far Sanderson has taken the bulk of the top PP unit while Chabot has seen his time on the man advantage go down slightly as at the end of last season he was averaging 2:40, while this time last year he was upwards of 3:30. While the average time on ice is still well above 20 minutes and something to fall back on in fantasy, it's tough to roster someone with that high of a cap hit who might just give you 24 minutes of empty stats.  

*Cap data from CapFriendly

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter
@ndySanz.

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