Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. On Friday, William Nylander put on a show for friends, family and fans on home soil, tallying three points in game two of the NHL’s Global Series in Sweden. Although he was born in Canada, Nylander’s roots are in Sweden. He’s a citizen of both countries but represents Sweden on the world stage.

Fuelled by energy from a crowd that adores him, Nylander extended his season-opening point streak to 16 games. Entering Saturday, the 27-year-old forward sits fourth in league scoring, currently on pace for 123 points. Considering his previous career-high – set last season – is a more modest 87 points, his current rate might seem outlandish. Although he might not score at this level all season, I think he can break the 100-point mark this year.

Part of the reason he’s scoring more than last year is because he’s putting more pucks on net. After averaging 3.6 shots per game last year, he’s up to 4.6 so far this season. In addition, his 19 and a half minutes per game represent a one-minute increase from last year’s 18:33 average. (nov18)

2. While Nylander’s shooting percentages aren’t out of the ordinary, there is a percentage that stands out when compared to last year, and that’s PPIPP (Power Play Individual Points Percentage). In recent years, Nylander registered a point on 50-60% of the power-play goals Toronto scored while he was on the ice. In contrast, that number is up to 83% so far this season. Not many players are able to maintain such a high percentage while playing top minutes for a full season, but the ones that do tend to be integral pieces of their team’s power play. So far this year, Nylander has established himself as the heartbeat of Toronto’s top unit.

In previous seasons, Auston Matthews and John Tavares would lead Toronto in shots with the man advantage. This year, Nylander sits first with 22, Tavares sits second with 16, and Matthews sits third with 13. Nylander may have played a supporting role in the past, but now that he’s in the final year of his contract, he’s taking his game to a new level in order to secure a lucrative new deal. (nov18)

3. Connor Hellebuyck had a rough start to the season, surrendering four or more goals in each of his first three starts. He’s played 10 games since then, giving up three or less in nine of those 10 appearances.

Although he’s starting to find his rhythm, his overall numbers are still worse than we’ve come to expect from him, so you may be able to pry him away from a disgruntled fantasy manager via trade. After posting a 2.49 GAA and .920 save percentage last year, he currently sits with a 2.91 GAA and .897 save percentage.

As we’ve highlighted, his overall numbers are weighed down by a few bad games early on, so I don’t think there’s major cause for concern. He’s established himself as a top tier netminder over a large sample, so I’m not too worried about a few bad games. In fact, I’m optimistic about Hellebuyck’s fantasy outlook for the rest of the season because the Jets have been playing well defensively. Based on expected goals against, Winnipeg’s defense currently ranks top-10 in the league (via NaturalStatTrick). (nov18)

4. Friday marked Buffalo’s first game of the season without Tage Thompson, who led the team in scoring last year. Thompson is expected to miss at least a month of action due to a wrist injury. In his absence, the team’s top power play featured Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt and JJ Peterka. While those first three names should be familiar from last year, it’s Mittelstadt and Peterka who are seeing their first major roles with the man advantage.

In Mittelstadt’s case, this is something we started to see before Thompson got injured. In his first 10 appearances of the campaign, Mittelstadt was stuck seeing 34% of Buffalo’s total power-play time. However, over the team’s last seven games, Mittelstadt leads the way with a 69% share. It hasn’t resulted in much production just yet, but this extra opportunity with the man advantage could help him flirt with a 70-point pace this year. (nov18)

5. One name you’ll notice I didn’t mention when discussing Buffalo’s top unit is Dylan Cozens. Even with Thompson injured, he saw just 34% of the Sabres’ total power-play time on Friday. This is part of a concerning trend lately where Cozens isn’t seeing a prominent role with the man advantage. In his first six games of the season, he enjoyed a 69% share of Buffalo’s total power-play time. Next nine games, 49%. As you might imagine, both of his power-play points this season came during that first-six game stretch.

In order for Cozens to be a valuable fantasy asset, a prominent power-play role is vital. He didn’t see big minutes with the man advantage for the entirety of last season, but it’s no coincidence that his most productive stretch featured a lot of PP action. From November 19, 2022, to January 10, 2023, Cozens racked up 28 points in 22 games. Thirteen (13) of those points came with the man advantage as he enjoyed a 62% share of PP time. Outside of that stretch, he saw less power-play opportunity and was understandably less productive. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Cozens on the top unit, but I think his overall play needs to improve significantly before he gets another shot. (nov18)

6. After spending the past few months recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad finally made their season debuts on Friday. Oliver Ekman-Larsson had been manning Florida’s top power-play unit while Montour and Ekblad were sidelined.

With all three defenseman healthy against the Ducks, it was interesting to see OEL lead the way with a 61% share of power-play time, while Montour saw 54% and Ekblad saw 47%. Considering Montour and Ekblad were on the top unit last year, it’ll be interesting to see if OEL can maintain a prominent role with the man advantage for the rest of the season. He’d been averaging 23 minutes a night while Montour and Ekblad were sidelined but saw just 18 minutes of action on Friday. Montour led all Panthers with 24 minutes while Ekblad saw 20. (nov18)

7. Going into last Thursday's games, the Vancouver Canucks trio of Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and J.T. Miller was tied for the league lead in scoring, with 26 points each. I’m not sure if that has ever happened before with a three-way tie for the league lead in scoring (past the first couple games of a season) and I’m not sure if we’ll see it again. There’s certainly something special going on in Vancouver.

I’ll pour a little bit of cold water on things though, and say that this trio won’t all finish with the 133 points that they’re pacing for. Hughes has greatly improved his shot numbers, which really help his underlying expected scoring. Him running through the next 65 games at a pace a little over a point-per-game would push him pretty much to the 100-point-mark, which seems like a good expectation for the rest of the way.

Forwards Miller and Pettersson don’t have many red flags other than high shooting percentages from Miller and Hughes especially, which will likely fall back somewhere closer to their normal. This would have a trickle-down impact to Pettersson’s point totals as well, but maybe a slightly smaller drop off than with Hughes. Still, a final season total around the 105-115 range may make sense for both the forwards. (nov17)

8. An update on Gabriel Vilardi:

@JohnLu : #NHLJets Arniel says Vilardi is still not ready to join his teammates in regular practices. The potential for accidental collisions or unnecessary contact isn't worth rushing him back. The target remains next Wednesday in Tampa to resume full practices.

Hopefully he can return at the end of the month, if not very early in December. We will keep everyone apprised, but Alex Iafallo has fit in very well on the top line while the middle-6 lines have each done their part. It’ll be interesting to see where Vilardi fits if this team keeps rolling for a couple weeks. (nov16)

9. Information from Arizona is always hard to come by, but we did get a note that Juuso Valimaki will be out for a while. Valimaki hasn’t been helpful in the fantasy realm but his injury does two things: it takes (likely) their best defensive defenseman out of the lineup and it should lead to more ice time for others on the blue line.

The first part will hurt their goalies (even more than they have already) while the latter could be a boon for JJ Moser. He is the only other regular left-shot defender on the roster (Travis Dermott also is a lefty but has been in and out of the lineup). Moser has been above 20 minutes for four straight games as it is and will likely see that be a regular thing with Valimaki injured. Just a note for multi-cat players.

10. Last week in these Ramblings, the change in shot rates – namely the rise in missed and blocked shots – was our topic. Changing shot volumes can have a big effect on just about everything fantasy-related, so if players are blocking more shots or missing the net more often, that matters for us.

That leads us to another area: what is it doing to goal scoring? It is worth taking a look at what’s happened so far this year, how it compares to recent seasons, and how that can inform fantasy hockey decisions moving forward. [Follow the link for the analysis…] (nov16)

11. I’m not sure when Charlie McAvoy is going to fully get his due as a top-five defenseman in the NHL, but he has been one for a while now. He has 12 points in 12 games. To boot, he’s dominant defensively, and is no slouch in any of the peripheral categories. (nov15)

12. In Down Goes Brown’s offseason predictions pool, David Pastrnak was my selection for a player who would hit 100 points (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were not allowed to be selected). After posting a goal and two assists last night, he’s currently on pace for 138 points, and is going to walk backward to 100 points this year – assuming he’s healthy.

Yes, I made that pick over others such as Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, or any of the Colorado names. Mainly it was because of the health risk, seeing that the others have all missed games recently due to injuries, while Pastrnak doesn’t have any recent injury risks, or history of injuries lingering around. Sometimes the safe pick is the right one. (nov15)

13. Owen Tippett is someone I was high on coming into the season, hitting his breakout threshold this year after finishing last season hot. He’s a volume shooter that was up at 1.6 hits per game last year. He’s now past last season’s 55-point-pace following a very slow start. This may be the last chance to buy in low on him, as the scoring should continue. I pegged him for another step forward into the 65-point range in the offseason, and I think he’s a decent bet to get there assuming he stays healthy. (nov15)

14. Dustin Wolf was sent back to the AHL with Jacob Markstrom back to full health. Wolf will be back up again at some point this season, but getting lots of volume at the AHL level is not hurting him in the meantime. (nov15)

15. Up front in Calgary, I finally cut bait with Jonathan Huberdeau in my main cap league, shipping him off basically for Travis Sanheim, and Mikhail Gulyayev, a favourite of mine from this past draft year. I was upset when he was selected right in front of where I was about to select him, but I’m happy to get him on board now. He’s an exceptionally skilled defenceman, now in the Colorado system, and coincidentally his favourite player is Cale Makar.

Gulyayev is signed for another 2.5 seasons in the KHL though (IIRC), so it will be a bit of a wait before he shows up in North America. As with some of the top Russians, when he does come over, he may immediately be an impact fantasy player.

As for Huberdeau, he still has the talent, but I had soured on him enough that moving the $10.5M price tag off of my team was an asset in and of itself, which helped move the deal along. He very well could turn things around, and he should at some point, but in the meantime with his shot rate bottomed out and his lack of confidence, there isn’t a lot to expect in the short term. Long term with the Flames once they get some of their issues resolved, he could/should be a point-per-game player again, though his three-year stint in the 90+ point range shouldn’t be expected anymore, not to mention the 115-point season. (nov15)

16. All told, it wasn’t a bad start to Jonas Johansson‘s Tampa Bay tenure with a .925 save percentage (including two shutouts) in his first seven games. That has gone very south very quickly, though, as he’s allowed at least four goals in seven of his last eight games. The team clearly needs Andrei Vaslievskiy back, and on that front, they got some good news last Monday:

@Chris_Krenn: Looks like Andrei Vasilevskiy is joining the #Bolts for practice today. 

Being back on the ice with teammates doesn’t mean a return is right around the corner, but the team had been aiming for American Thanksgiving, and that’s next Thursday. It seems he’s not far off that timeline, so a big boost to the lineup is coming shortly. (nov14)

17. Last Sunday’s biggest hockey story came out of Edmonton as the Oilers fired head coach Jay Woodcroft and replaced him with Kris Knoblauch. Knoblauch has been coaching the Rangers’ AHL affiliate for the past few years, but his most notable experience comes from coaching junior hockey back in the day. Overseeing the Erie Otters, he coached younger versions of Connor McDavid, Connor Brown, and Warren Foegele – three members of Edmonton’s current roster. (nov13)

18. Of the three, I’d be most interested to see how the coaching change affects Connor Brown. This is a player who consistently scored at a 50-point pace for the Senators from 2019-22, averaging nearly 20 minutes of action per game. That momentum was derailed last season, when he appeared in just four games for the Capitals before tearing his ACL and sitting out the rest of the campaign.

This season, Brown understandably needed some time to reacclimate after being away from the game for so long. Still, it’s been disappointing to see him go pointless in his first 10 appearances with the Oilers, averaging just over 14 minutes per game. A healthy Brown under Kris Knoblauch could see the opportunity required to be a strong fantasy hockey asset. (nov13)

19. Edmonton’s line combinations for their first morning skate with new coach Kris Knoblauch:

RNH-McDavid-Gagner
Kane-Draisaitl-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Foegele
Lavoie-Hamblin-Ryan

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais (nov14)

20. The Oilers' new era under a new coach got off to a good start with a 4-1 win at home to the New York Islanders. They looked good in this game but the thing that stood out was the lack of back-breaking mistakes. What marred their start to the season was critical mistakes – awful decision-making with passes, no backchecking – leading to a lot of goals against. Once their offense really gets going, this is likely a top-5 team in the West. (nov14)

21. With this recent run of production, Alexis Lafrenière was on pace for 64 points before Saturday's game action. He’s playing with a level of confidence that we haven’t really seen in his previous three seasons. It seems the 22-year-old is finally putting together the breakout season many expected when he was drafted first overall in 2020. Although this is an important step for Lafrenière’s long-term development, his value in one-year leagues remains limited by a lack of power-play opportunity. (nov13)

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Have a good week, folks!

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