Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Once a force to be reckoned with, the Penguins’ power play is a real issue and is eating into the fantasy value of the players. Entering Saturday, the power play had fallen below 10% for the season, which is among the bottom three teams. In fact, its last power-play goal came on November 11, which will be a month ago by the time the Penguins next play on December 12. That’s a 0-for-37 skid. Remember: this was a power play they had thought they had upgraded with the acquisition of Erik Karlsson during the offseason. They will find their way again, but how effective will they be once they break the slump?

For what it’s worth, Karlsson is tied for second on the Penguins with four power-play points. But that’s not even within the top 100 of the league. Onetime power-play mainstays Kris Letang and Bryan Rust have yet to register a single power-play point. Both Letang and Rust have found themselves outside of the first power-play unit for much of the season, and Rust is now injured.

To put this another way, Nikita Kucherov (22 PPP) has more power-play points than the entire Penguins roster (21 PPP). That not only speaks to how abysmal the Pens’ power play has been, but also how dominant Kucherov has been. At time of writing, no other player had more than 17 power-play points. (dec9)

2.  I tried to trade Sergei Bobrovsky to anyone that was paying attention during the offseason. That may have turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as he and the Panthers are performing better than I had expected. With a 26-save effort in a 3-1 win over Pittsburgh on Friday, Goalie Bob now has four consecutive wins as well as quality starts in four of his past five games. As well, his 13 wins places him tied for second in the league in that category. His solid run during the playoffs has carried over into the season, so we’re now at a place where we can start him with confidence. (dec9)

3. With Elvis Merzlikins on injured reserve, Jet Greaves was recently recalled from the AHL. In his first start of the season on Friday, Greaves made 41 saves in the Blue Jackets’ 5-2 win over St. Louis. Merzlikins’ absence is listed as an illness, so his stay on the injured list could be a short one. Spencer Martin has nearly as many really bad starts (3) as quality starts (4), so Greaves could earn some more work.

Entering Sunday action, Adam Fantilli was tied for second place in the rookie scoring race with 16 points in 30 games. Although icectime is sometimes an issue (for example, 12:44 on Friday), Fantilli seems to be adjusting very well to the NHL game. He should be considered an option for mid-sized to deeper leagues. (dec9)

4. Evan Bouchard scored twice and added an assist in Friday’s win over the Wild, extending his point streak to 10 games. Over his point streak, Bouchard has registered 15 points. At time of writing, his recent scoring moved him up tied for third in scoring among defensemen (27 PTS in 24 GP) – he was only one of three defensemen that played at least 20 games and was scoring at a point-per-game level (Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are the others). (dec9)

5. A couple weeks ago, I watched Mikael Granlund in a game and he looked all right, but I wasn’t quite ready to put my reputation on the line and recommend him (November 26 Ramblings). Nearly two weeks later, Granlund had the most points of any player since December 1.

Is this a case of us writing a player off too early? The Penguins were criticized for acquiring him at least year’s deadline, and Kyle Dubas couldn’t get rid of him fast enough when he took over as GM (maybe Granlund could help their power play?) Now he’s on a team with very few better options, and suddenly he’s fast approaching point-per-game territory while said team is on an out-of-nowhere run with wins in five of their past seven games.

Yes, go ahead and add Granlund. Like many non-superstars that go on these kinds of runs, it won’t last. But he might just be better than you thought on a team that will give him ice time, which has averaged nearly 22 minutes per game since November 14. His advanced stats don’t even suggest a regression. When measured as a whole, the shooting percentages, points per 60, PDO, and secondary assist percentage appear to be poor luck early in the season combined with great luck recently. He’ll cool off, but he still might provide enough to remain rosterable beyond the short term. By the way, this is all coming from someone who dropped Granlund from his keeper team in the offseason. (dec9)

6. At this point, you’re probably okay to click the drop button on Andrei Kuzmenko in shallow to mid-sized leagues. Currently in Rick Tocchet’s doghouse, Kuzmenko skated on the fourth line, although he has remained on the first-unit power play. Kuzmenko has just one point in his last nine games, and he also seems in danger of being healthy scratched again after sitting for two games in late November. Kuzmenko’s shooting percentage of 26.8% last season made him an easy bust candidate after scoring 38 goals in his first NHL season, but four goals in 25 games is quite a decline on a Canucks team that leads the league in total goals.

Kuzmenko could easily find his scoring touch later in the season, but Tocchet’s issues with Kuzmenko’s game have more to do with his defensive play as opposed to scoring. In order to stay in the lineup, Kuzmenko’s mindset might have to drift away from scoring for the time being, which makes rostering him very difficult at this point. (dec9)

7. With Dan Vladar being pulled in Calgary’s game on Tuesday night, it seemed likely that prospect Dustin Wolf would get the nod in net on Thursday and that’s exactly what happened. (Wolf also started Saturday's game against New Jersey). Jacob Markstrom injured his hand when he got hit with an errant puck during practice earlier in the week and that pushed Wolf to the NHL roster. The young netminder had a 0,920 save percentage in the AHL season, and that was while following up back-to-back seasons as the Goalie of the Year in the AHL.

This is obviously a huge moment for both Flames fans and fantasy owners. Though not a goalie that has pedigree as a seventh-round pick in 2019 – for whatever ‘pedigree’ is worth – he has demonstrated for 2 ½ years now that he could be a diamond in the rough. Dynasty owners may finally get some usage out of a netminder that probably should have been in the NHL this time last year.

Of course, no matter how he fares, a few starts won’t tell us a lot about his future. It would be great to see how soar out of the gate, though, and he may get some run in net depending on what happens with Markstrom (currently week-to-week for the starter). (dec8)

8. Patrick Kane returned to the action on Thursday night, suiting up in his first game for Detroit. He skated on the second line with Alex DeBrincat and Joe Veleno. Most importantly here for fantasy is that DeBrincat was on the top PP unit thanks to an absence from JT Compher. (On Saturday, Kane scored his first goal as a Red Wing).

Michael Clifford vs. Detroit’s Power Play Formations is a struggle that stretches back generations. It is part of hockey lore at this point. That the Red Wings were practicing with DeBrincat on PP2 last weekend when Kane joined the team would have driven me to the brink of insanity. The fact that it took an injury to ensure that DeBrincat would be on the top PP unit is really weird, but we take the small wins when we can get them. (dec8)

9. Nashville welcomed Tommy Novak back to the lineup on Thursday after missing nearly four weeks due to an upper-body injury. He skated on the second line with Luke Evangelista. Novak started the year with six goals and six assists in 14 games before exiting the lineup. 

Novak was a player I was really excited about this year. It seemed he could carve himself a big role on the second line with the talent exodus the team had, and his playmaking data from AllThreeZones last year was excellent. Funny part about his start this year: his rate of assists on teammate scoring chances, per that tracking data, was nearly double the league average. There are the makings of a tremendous playmaker here and getting him back is a boost for Nashville’s depth scoring. In fantasy, though, he was under two shots per game over his last 65 games, while managing just 10 hits (at time of writing). In points-only formats, there’s potential for success here, but not in multi-cat formats. Think a poor man’s Robert Thomas. (dec8)

10. Ottawa needs to stay healthy, which makes the news about Thomas Chabot concerning as it looks like he may be out for a while.

Chabot had already missed time to injury this season and it’s part of a worrying trend. He missed 14 games last season and 23 games the campaign before. He’s missed over one-quarter of Ottawa’s games dating back to the 2021-22 season – and that number will rise however long he’s out now. It is very unfortunate because this guy helped carry some very bad teams 4-5 years ago and now that they’re much more talented up front, he can’t stay in the lineup.

With Chabot out of the lineup on Tuesday, Jake Sanderson was back on the top PP unit. At time of writing, one problem with that is Ottawa that was generating 13% more shots on the power play without Sanderson on the blue line, and Ottawa’s power play has generally been an issue all season. If this team wants to start winning more games regularly, they need to do better than drawing the second-most power plays per game but being outside the top-10 teams by power play goals per game. They may be in tough until Christmas, though, as none of their opponents between now and then are in the bottom-third of the league by penalty kill percentage. (dec7)

11. A lot is being made of Pierre-Luc Dubois‘s fantasy season, but it’s a bit misguided, I think.

First, just going to Los Angeles was going to give him competition. I wrote back in September that he’d be in a fight to replace Phillip Danault on the second line and it was far from a sure thing that he’d get that role. Even if he did, they weren’t going to nuke Danault’s ice time to true third-line minutes (he’s too good for that) which meant it’d be more likely they’d have two second-ish lines, rather than a 1-2-3-4 setup.

The second note is that at time of writing, Dubois currently had his highest points/60 rate at 5-on-5 since 2018-19. In fact, his primary points rate (just goals and first assists per minute) was in the 84^th percentile of forwards with at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5. That is easily, easily, a first-line rate.

His two problems are the two problems that were obvious from the outset of the season: Los Angeles’s top power play unit is worse than their second – that was the case across the prior two seasons – and he’d be fighting with Danault for even strength ice time.

The fact that Dubois has stopped hitting is something I didn’t envision and that is compounding the fantasy value drop; he was averaging one hit every 30 minutes of ice time compared to once every 15.8 minutes over his final two years in Winnipeg.

This may be a lost season, fantasy-wise. The team is playing too well – their top two lines in particular – to change much and even if he gets back to the top PP unit, they often split that PP time. We will see if anything changes, but for now, he’s a player that will be much more valuable in real life than in fantasy for some time yet. Once in a while, I do get things right. (dec7)

12. The NHL had the Board of Governor meetings this week and we did get an updated projection on what next year’s cap may look like. Right now it sounds as though $87.7 million has been penciled in, though as we know it’s always subject to change based on the rest of the season. In other words, if the Cup final is Arizona versus Columbus, we likely see the cap drop. If it’s Toronto versus Los Angeles, then the cap likely goes up. Plan accordingly – unlike NHL GMs.

In the meantime, and with no fantasy relevance, we also got an announcement on the NHL draft format. If you ever wanted to go to an NHL draft, this is your last chance to see all the teams on the floor squished together at adjacent tables. (dec6)

13. Tage Thompson is back! Without Tage, Buffalo just hasn’t looked like the offensive force that we know they can be. Hopefully both the Sabres and Tage can get back to their peaks now, as the production for Thompson was also disappointing to start the year. Some correction in the underlying percentages should mean a finish closer to the point-per-game mark than the 60-point-pace he’s on now.

Luckily it also sounds like Alex Tuch‘s injury (likely a strained hamstring) is going to be the best-case-scenario, and he’s only going to need a week or two off. (dec6)

14. In one of my leagues I own both Jakub Vrana and Chandler Stephenson. Both are slumping, though I remain confident that both have many productive years remaining. I wanted to dive into how realistic that feeling is for both of the upcoming UFA.

For this year, there’s a lot more to like with Stephenson, as he is on the better team, has the better track record, lower cap hit, and isn’t a healthy scratch like Vrana. However, I feel that Vrana’s ultimate upside may be higher, if he could just land in the right situation – that’s why I have hope for next year is he can pick the spot that will hopefully suit him best.

Stephenson’s most common linemate is Mark Stone (both this season and years previous), and during the recent slump, he has been playing away from Stone. Once the two are back together again, I expect the offensive production to continue. Vegas has seemed to like to shake up the lines, and after losing to Arizona, Edmonton, St. Louis, and Calgary over the last two weeks, I think we may see some further shake ups.

Overall, his team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice is extremely low, and coupled with a few other percentages, should mean that he’s in line for a rebound up closer to his usual 60-point-pace the rest of the way. (dec6)

15. For Vrana, he’s going to have to get back into the lineup before he can start to correct his poor start, and at this point that might take an injury or two. He has always had decent IPPs but with less ice time, and had some of the best shot production rates in the league back in his time with the Capitals/Red Wings.

However, this year, the ice time has been down even further, and he has been snake-bitten to a shooting percentage at a quarter of what he was averaging the previous three seasons.

Still excited to see what he can do next year on a cheaper contract and anywhere but under Craig Berube. He’s going to be one of my favourite late sleepers in drafts next season. (dec6)

16. Robby Fabbri missed quite a few games early-on, but since mid-November he has really gotten his legs back under him. He now has 11 points in his last nine games (six of them goals), with limited power play exposure. He was always a scorer back in junior, but has battled so many injuries since then that he just hasn’t had a chance to show what a healthy Fabbri can do for a long stretch in the NHL. Well, it looks as though we’re finally seeing it.

He may not be a heavy shooter, and without two shots per game or more, his shooting percentage may cause his production to fall back to earth a bit, but lining up with David Perron who has a knack for getting Fabbri the puck in the right places just seems to be the magic ingredient for Fabbri at the moment. Ride the hot streak while you can, and keep your fingers crossed he stays healthy. (dec6)

17. One of the players I thought may break out this season was Oliver Wahlstrom as he returned from knee surgery. Things haven’t gone well with just two goals and five points in 17 games. Whether he’s not up to speed, or whether he’s just not going to make it in the NHL, is undecided. I am leaning towards not up to speed yet as his shot rate is by far a career-low (under 7 shots per 60 minutes where he had been over 10 shots per 60 over his three full seasons), so maybe he’s having a tough time getting where he needs to be to unleash his shot. Regardless, it really does not appear as if that breakout will happen this season, but I am not giving up on his upside in the fantasy game yet and let’s see where things stand in training camp next September. (dec5)

18. Winnipeg signed Nino Niederreiter to a three-year extension. The team announced the AAV will be $4M a season. Turning 32 years old next season, Nino may end up a Winnipeg Jet for the rest of his career.

One thing he does that can help the team is he’s truly flexible in his role; he can fill in on the top line if injuries hit, and he can be a great two-way winger on a third line. He is having a solid fantasy season in multi-cat formats, but he’ll continue to be capped because he’ll largely be kept away from their top stars at all in the important strengths. It is interesting he could push for 50 blocks and 100 hits this year, though, as the shot-blocking league-wide becomes a major thing. (dec5)

19. Victor Hedman reached 1000 regular season games played with his appearance Monday night against Dallas. The 2^nd overall pick from the John Tavares draft back in 2009 took some time to get his NHL career going but once he reached his mid-20s, he reached superstar level and has looked that part for almost the entire time since.

In the fantasy game, his consistency is something to be marveled over. Outside of a blip last season where his 82-game pace was for 9.7 goals, Hedman has been over a 10-goal/82-game average every season dating back to 2013-14. He has also averaged at least 0.6 points/game in every campaign in that stretch, with 2015-16 being the only season he didn’t have a 50-point/82-game pace (and he was at 49.7 points/82). In the six seasons he played at least 75 games in that stretch since 2013, he managed triple-digit blocks. This season will also likely make seven of eight years with at least 20 power play points. This is a guy who could almost always be relied upon for 10 goals, 50 points, 170 shots, 100 blocks, and 20 power play points. Again, that consistency is something else.

This is where I have to give my mea culpa and say I thought this would be the season that Sergachev took over the top PP duties on a full-time basis. That hasn’t happened and Hedman went into Monday night on a point-per-game pace. Even turning 34 years old later this month hasn’t prevented him from regaining for after a down (injured) season in 2022-23. Just an amazing player that is headed straight to the Hall of Fame whenever he decides to hang up the skates. (dec5)

20. Marco Rossi (8-7-15 in 25 games) is among the leaders in rookie scoring, playing well, but also benefiting from high-end linemates in Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. Around the league, there aren’t many rookies with linemates of similar/greater caliber. Logan Cooley in Arizona (Nick Schmaltz/Clayton Keller) and Matthew Knies in Toronto (Auston Matthews/William Nylander) are other obvious ones that come to mind, but I think those lines are more likely to be shaken up than Rossi’s.(dec4)

21. And finally, the Hughes brothers played in their first NHL game with all three of them on the ice this past week, and we’ll just say it wasn’t a goalie battle. I don’t need to tell you how great they all are already. It’s not going to be easy to acquire any of them, but it will be worthwhile. Even Luke as a rookie is still making me second-guess trading him for Miro Heiskanen straight up. Not many NHLers can do that. (dec6)

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Have a good week, folks!

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