Now that we are on a little break for the All-Star festivities it seems like an opportune moment to look back on the games that were. For today's article we are going to focus on some first half surprises – folks who are doing a little something unexpected. You may recall back at the beginning of December we did a similar article but focused on players who were performing much better than we had anticipated. Today, we are going to check in on a few players who are performing worse and see what we think about their prognosis going forward.

In order to make this happen we need to start with some sort of expectation, get in the minds of drafters who had hopes and dreams for all these players. To get that level set we are going to use an October version of the Dobber Guide's projections. For our comparison we will be using a Big Board Report for the games to date this 23-24 season. We will be focusing on point pace today so I pulled the necessary data from both sources forward to get a table that we can review.

Going from left to right in the table below we have some basic player information (name, position, and team) as well as their 23-24 scoring stats to date. This includes games played (GP), goals (G), assists (A), points (PTS), points per game (PTS/GP), and point pace assuming 82 games played (82GP Pace). We then get into the projected stats where I carried forward the projected points per game numbers, and the 82 game pace numbers. Finally, we have a column that indicates the difference between our projected per game point pace and the per game point pace to date.

Connor Brown's projected 58-point pace was based almost solely on the idea that he would be a great fit next to Connor McDavid. While he did get a shot in that position during preseason and early on, he has most decidedly not gotten that role. He has had the occasional turn with Leon Draisaitl, but his most common linemates recently have been Ryan Mcleod and Dylan Holloway where he has been usually seeing somewhere between ten and twelve minutes a night. He also only has four games since November 18th with more than a minute of power-play time. Technically speaking Brown's four points in 38 games are too low. Given some of his underlying numbers we might expect him to have closer to 12 points (hooray I guess?). That would improve his nine-point pace all the way up to a 26-point pace. The Edmonton lines have been reasonably consistent, and Brown is not sniffing the top six. With no exposure to McDavid or Draisaitl there is no reason to expect much better from Brown in the second half.

Trevor Zegras has a very disappointing seven points in 20 games. He has spent time injured, so it is hard to tell exactly how much of this has been a slow start and how much maybe he was playing through injury. Overall (when in the lineup) his time on ice has been down by about a minute, though he is shooting slightly more per game than in 22-23. His personal and team shooting percentages are low, as is his IPP, while his expected goal numbers are actually up. These together imply that his low performance this season might just be down to bad luck. For comparison let's look at frequent linemate Troy Terry. Through December, Terry put up 15 points in 27 games (better than Zegras' two points in 12, but still not what we wanted from Terry). Since then, Terry has 24 points in 23 games, and ten over his last six. While it is disappointing that an injury has taken Zegras out of the lineup when he might have been riding this wave as well, it would not be surprising for him to have a similar run at some point when he returns as his own underlying numbers straighten out. Given he is injured now, if you have IR slots it might be worth a look to see if he was dropped and give him a stash for later.

Similar to Brown, it was prophesied that Tyler Bertuzzi would be getting prime deployment his new team. In Bertuzzi's case that meant Auston Matthews, or maybe John Tavares and William Nylander. Add that to the success he saw in Boston while up the lineup and folks were very interested in what Bertuzzi might offer for 23-24. The results have been lackluster to say the least. His shot rates and shooting percentages are about the same as in 22-23 and he has been spending time in the top six (usually with Tavares and Nylander), but the results just haven't been there. His underlying numbers aren't the problem either. He is as involved in the offense about as much as he has been recently at five on five. The biggest problem is the lack of power-play time. Bertuzzi hasn't pointed on the power-play since December 16th and is frequently getting a minute or less of total time with the second unit. It is possible his shooting percentage will revert back to the 16% number of his Detroit days, and in that case he could see some regression just in goal scoring, but for the most part, unless he gets access to the power-play I am not optimistic about a second half resurgence.

The amount of virtual ink that has been spilled over Johnny Gaudreau over the past few seasons probably only rivals Jonathan Huberdeau (who incidentally was a runner up for this list and much of what is said here also probably applies to him). Coming to Columbus off of a 115-point season in Calgary the drop to around 70 points was certainly considered a disappointment. A 70-point mark is fairly consistent with several other of his seasons, but still a bounce back to at least point per game did seem pretty reasonable. His 52-point pace thus far seems to only be adding insult to injury. There is both good and bad news here. The good news is that Gaudreau has been much more relevant lately. Since December 14th, he has 17 points in 20 games (about a 70-point pace). His full season underlying numbers are also a bit low, meaning we might expect a little bit better in the future. The bad news is that it took this run to get him to a 52-point pace and while he maybe deserves a bit higher pace I would put the ceiling closer to 60 than point per game. The problem is that while most of his numbers look a little low, they aren't really that far off. And just a little low on a 52-point pace is not exciting. The most concerning bit here is the drop of shot rates. He has consistently been up around three per game for most of his career but is now averaging less than two – a full shot per game less than his last two years. Ultimately there are a couple of things that could bounce in his direction, but unless he starts shooting, or sees some other significant change on the ice I see more of the same for Gaudreau in the second half.

Lastly, Brandon Montour. Given the reins to the Florida power-play in 22-23, Montour certainly surprised, putting up his first 70-plus point pace season. In fact, it was his first rate that exceeded 37 points. Expectations were high coming into the season and why not? That career high pace came with career high time on ice, power-play time, shot rates, expected goal numbers, and pretty reasonable underlying numbers. Unfortunately, the early returns in 23-24 have not been great. Well, the initial returns were non-existent because he was injured, but since his return on November 17th he has managed just eleven points. If we look at his game log there are maybe some reasons to be optimistic? He has five points in his last 12 (not great but still better than November and December), he is putting up about three shots per game, and is still running the top power play.  In the vein of even better news, his personal shot rates, his team shot rates, and his points participation numbers are essentially the lowest of his career. Assuming a lot of that is just bad luck Montour could easily sustain a 55-point pace going forward. Unfortunately, we have been seeing much the same for at least the last month and it hasn't kicked into gear yet. Maybe he is still dealing with a nagging injury, though his time on ice numbers and high shot rates seem to indicate not. Or maybe he will get shuffled off that power-play because his personal production hasn't been good, but the unit as a whole has still been very productive. Some of these things we just can't be sure of. What we can say though is that if his deployment holds, the numbers give every reason to expect a significant bounce-back. Not a 75-point pace maybe, but definitely 55 and I imagine at this point managers rostering Montour would rejoice at a 55 point pace the rest of the way.

That is all for this week.

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