Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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Let’s jump into the plentiful news we have thanks to NHL training camps and exhibition games being in full swing.

1. Here's a player eyeing a return to the 100-point scoring level as a mark that he deserves to be on the American Olympic team: Tage Thompson enters the year motivated, healthy, and playing RW instead of being held back by extra responsibilities at center. As I mentioned last week in my ADP rundowns (which you can find here and here), Thompson is someone I’m buying ahead of his ADP – just a note for some leagues, that Thompson’s FOW numbers could plummet.

On the flip side of a position change, Logan Stankoven got the first shot as the C2 in Carolina. I thought over the summer that it might be the responsible Seth Jarvis and his healthy shoulder who got the first look there, reprising his position from the junior ranks, but instead Stankoven was thrown into the fire (albeit with some excellent supporting wingers). I would expect his scoring pace to dip, at least for the first half of the season, as plenty of young players (especially smaller ones) struggle with the shift from wing to center at the NHL level. (sept24)

2. With a player who took advantage last year of playing up in the lineup in Dallas when injuries hit, it looks like he once again is primed to ride shotgun with some better players and reap the rewards. Who I’m talking about here is Evgeni Dadonov, who has spent the whole pre-season with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of competition on that line either, and Sheldon Keefe doesn’t exactly have a track record as a coach that makes big changes on the fly, so Dadonov could get a long leash in that LW1 slot. (sept24)

3. Another player that got an extended look on the top line has been Mattias Maccelli in Toronto. His underlying numbers show that he is a skilled playmaker like Marner, with similar strengths and weaknesses to his game… and obviously not to the same level as Marner. However, the hope in Toronto is that Matthews’ star power is enough to make up the difference in the drop from Marner to Maccelli, and the similar game style keeps the top line rolling.

Still in Toronto, Joseph Woll is going to be taking a leave of absence for a family matter. As the Leafs did not provide a timeline, it’s tough to know how to adjust for this news, if at all. I might bump Anthony Stolarz up five to 10 slots on my draft list, and push Woll back by about the same amount. It’s unlikely I’ll end up with either on my team this year though as Stolarz is going earlier than I would draft a timeshare option, and if I don’t own Stolarz then I’m unlikely to take the equally injury-prone Woll. Fantasy hockey aside, we're wishing Woll the best for whatever he's going through. (sept24)

Meanwhile, James Reimer is making a long-awaited return to Toronto. The Leafs have signed the veteran goalie to a PTO. This is likely because of Joseph Woll‘s unknown timeline for a return from a personal leave of absence. The Leafs may not be totally sure that Dennis Hildeby is NHL-ready, or at least would like some more competition behind Anthony Stolarz. Reimer is now 37 years of age and seems best suited for a backup role at this point in his career. (sept27)

4. Tyson Foerster was back in a regular jersey for the first time this past week, which is a good sign that he’s on the right track, and should be ready for opening day. Alex Bump is one who might have filled in on a scoring line for Foerster, and while that spot may not be open anymore, Bump’s play last year and in camp so far this fall might be putting him on the short list for a top-nine winger slot anyways. (sept24)

5. The Capitals are going to be fascinating to watch, as they look to have a solid top-12 forwards, but then there’s also the list of who would be left over, and that includes Hendrix Lapierre, Ethan Frank, and Sonny Milano as veterans, plus Terik Parascak, Andrew Cristall, Ilya Protas, and more. Cristall seems the closest of those last three, but all of them could use a bit more seasoning. Those are some better options than many teams’ fourth lines. Could there be a trade or two that materializes, or are the Caps going to return some extra depth to their AHL affiliate in Hershey for another run at an AHL title, while maintaining the organizational depth? (sept24)

6. Friday’s news on Aleksander Barkov confirmed the worst, as the Panthers captain underwent surgery on both the ACL and MCL on his right knee. The Panthers have stated a recovery timeline of 7 to 9 months is normal for this type of injury, which means that Barkov would miss the entire regular season. A best-case scenario could see Barkov return sometime during the playoffs.

Barkov needed to be helped off the ice during Thursday’s practice after what seemed like a relatively harmless play.

As much as this would be a massive loss for the Panthers, three-time Selke winner Barkov is probably an even better real-life player than fantasy player, similar to Jonathan Toews during the Blackhawks’ prime years. Barkov has been a point-per-game player for six of his last seven seasons, which makes him a known commodity – but only to a degree. Over the last four 82-game seasons, Barkov has played 70 games just once, and he has missed a minimum of nine games each season. A proper projection for Barkov would have him missing at least 10 games, so his season-long projection would have been closer to 70 points than 80 points. (sept27)

7. Anton Lundell stands to gain the most with the extended Barkov absence, as Lundell could potentially move up to the top 6. Lundell has been productive as a third-line center and deserves at least a look in the top 6. That might change, however, if the Panthers sign Jack Roslovic or opt for something much bigger (Sidney Crosby, for example?) If we’re speaking in hypotheticals, Roslovic wouldn’t necessarily be a guarantee to bump Lundell down, but Crosby would.

That being said, even after the Panthers brought the band back against the odds during the offseason, this is a more watered-down top 6 with both Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk out. Barkov and Tkachuk have generally played on different even-strength lines, so there isn’t a third forward to hugely downgrade. The injuries could cut into the production of the likes of Sam Reinhart or Carter Verhaeghe or Brad Marchand, though. To counterbalance that, Verhaeghe could be back on the top power play, a spot that he lost later in the last season and through much of the playoffs.

If you’re looking for sub-50% rostered C-eligible players on Yahoo, Barkov’s former Panthers teammate Jonathan Huberdeau is one possible option, especially if he can find a way to bounce back closer to his pre-trade numbers. Assuming he is healthy for opening night, Jared McCann is also worth considering. Adam Fantilli has potential sleeper value, although he is creeping toward being 50% rostered himself. But if Fantilli isn’t available, you might have better luck with his Columbus teammates Sean Monahan or Kent Johnson. Marco Rossi is also worth betting on for his upside, and he’s only 18% rostered in Yahoo.

One last thing: Barkov is on the fantasy team that I will describe later, so I feel your pain. He is a player that I had to keep from last season. Because I was trying to build up depth at the center position even before the Barkov injury, I have one more possible replacement, which you’ll have to read on to find out about. (sept27)

8. A bit of a scary situation for Jamie Benn even if it looks like it’s all going to be fine:

Dallas Stars General Manager Jim Nill announced that captain Jamie Benn will undergo surgery for a collapsed lung. Benn is expected to make a full recovery and will be reevaluated in four weeks.

Being shut down for four weeks for an evaluation puts his timeline sometime into November, but regardless, it’s just good to see this is taken care of. (sept26)

9. Anthony Duclair has been deemed day-to-day with an upper-body injury. I suppose it’s good news that it’s not related to the groin injury that caused Duclair to miss nearly half the season last year and be largely ineffective even when he played, but it’s always something to monitor for a player returning from injury. (sept26)

10. Continuing with injury news, David Pastrnak was back at practice, which is a great sign for players with picks in the six-to-10 range of redrafts. Players like Pasta, Jaccob Slavin (held out of training camp), and Cale Makar (held out for the second half of a game that got out of control) are players who I am not dropping back on any draft lists (assuming I would have a list long enough to have Slavin on it in the first place).

However, players with real injuries that are expected to spill into the season like Ukko-Pekka Lukkonnen. Zach Hyman, and Mats Zuccarello, do drop down my draft boards a little further. Players that are injured at this point miss the warm up for the season, and sometimes run into setbacks, meaning that despite being given a timeline that they might miss four-to-six weeks of the season (just an example, not the specific case of these players) they might be two-to-three months before they’re actually back to full health and up to the game speed of everyone else. That’s a lot of time to be holding some extra weight on your roster when instead you can just draft a very similar albeit healthy player. (sept24)

11. With Alex Ovechkin injured, Andrew Cristall has filled in next to Dylan Strome basically from the start of training camp. When Ovechkin returns, he will take that spot back, but there may be a spot next to Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson waiting for Cristall. Let’s see how the rest of camp goes, but Cristall has 127 goals in his last 173 regular season WHL games. He may head to the AHL for some pro experience, but he is still someone to keep an eye on as we make our way through camp. (sept23)

12. In Seattle, Jared McCann is day-to-day right now, but he was skating next to Berkly Catton earlier in training camp. That seems to be a vote of confidence for both he and Jagger Firkus. We’ll see where things stand in 7-10 days.

What really stood out early in camp was Jani Nyman getting a spot next to Matty Beniers and Kaapo Kakko, with Nyman replying to that role by scoring twice in that game. He had 28 goals in 58 games last year as a rookie 20-year-old in the AHL, has the highest single-season goal total by a teenager in the Finnish league in the last 40 years (per Elite Prospects), and scored three times in 12 games with the Kraken. He also posted 13 hits in 12 games with Seattle, skating mostly with Beniers and Kakko. If Nyman is going to get a top-line role next to Beniers, and skate on either of the PP units, there is a solid multi-cat player in the making. His FanTrax ADP is outside the top-600, and good luck finding a player with his goal-scoring pedigree, multi-cat ability, and who is in line for a top-6 role with power-play time. (sept23)

13. For now, it looks like Alex Tuch is going to get a real chance at the top PP unit for the Buffalo Sabres. Over the last two seasons, Tuch has managed 2.37 points per 60 minutes at even strength (per Evolving Hockey). That mark is higher than names like Aleksander Barkov (2.36), William Nylander (2.34), Adrian Kempe (2.32), Cole Caufield (2.32), and Matthew Tkachuk (2.28). Tuch has only averaged 11.5 PP points per 82 games in that span, though, so he can easily be a 30-goal, 70-point player once again with regular top PP time like in 2022-23.   

Just watch for Tuch's preseason status. He has missed some days of camp, but the team doesn't seem worried about it being anything serious, and he practiced this week. Josh Doan got a chance to make an impression skating next to Jiri Kulich in Tuch’s absence. (sept23)

14. Per Kevin Kurz, it looks like the Philadelphia Flyers gave Jamie Drysdale the first crack at the top power-play unit. They do have other young options like Emil Andrae and Egor Zamula who could figure in, and Travis Sanheim is still a possibility, but the new coaching staff does seem to want to give Drysdale a chance to run with the top PP role.

Drysdale is an interesting player. His raw tools (particularly skating) are obvious to anyone watching him play, but he has had a lot of injury issues. We should keep in mind that he just crossed the 200-game threshold towards the end of last season and is only 23 years old. He has to prove himself, of course, but he’s healthy for the second year in a row (for now), is coming into his prime, and has a new coach. His FanTrax ADP is outside the top-60 defencemen, so there is a good (cheap) draft bet to be made that Drysdale has the best season of his career. (sept23)

15. It has been interesting to see the Tampa Bay Lightning continue to give Gage Goncalves a shot at sticking on the second line next to Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Goncalves had a solid rookie season with 20 points in 60 games, but he did have 71 hits and 20 blocks in those 60 games. If he can get a regular second-line role, he could push 14 minutes a game. That would put 10 goals and 30 points on the table, to go with roughly 30 blocks and 100 hits. It isn’t outstanding, but something multi-cat managers in deep formats should keep an eye on through training camp.

Staying with Tampa Bay, Eduardo A. Encina said that the Lightning were using Oliver Bjorkstrand on their top PP unit in practice. That is something that should make all Brandon Hagel enthusiasts (myself included) a little nervous. (sept23)

16. At time of writing, Marco Ross's Yahoo! ADP sat at 176 with an overall rank of 203, and with Mats Zuccarello expected to miss “weeks”, according to GM Bill Guerin, you have to think that Rossi is poised to take on a major role for the Minnesota Wild. Early reports indicate Rossi has seen line work with Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov, a combination that should excite fantasy managers. Zuccarello’s return is uncertain, he is 38 and has averaged 65 games over the last six seasons, so Rossi could maintain a top-line role even when Zuccarello is back. Last season we saw Rossi play 82 games and post 24 goals and 36 assists for 60 points, a clear step forward from his previous full season. With Zuccarello out, Rossi should see increased top-line minutes, more power-play time, and higher-quality zone starts, putting up a repeat, baring any major changes to his deployment. Regardless, Rossi profiles as a top-six forward at the very least with a solid floor and a rising ceiling. His role on the top power-play unit will likely define his overall fantasy impact. (sept22)

17. During the fantasy hockey season, I basically have three types of game I’m playing: one standard season-long fantasy league on FanTrax, Daily Fantasy on DraftKings, and I play in Best Ball leagues on Underdog Fantasy. It is the last of those three I want to talk about today.

Best Ball leagues have been discussed before in these Ramblings, but they are basically draft-and-hold leagues. There are 12 teams drafting 16 players across Centre, Winger, Defence, Flex (any skater), and Goalie designations, and the weekly stats of 6 of those 16 players count each week (one centre, two wingers, one defenceman, one flex, and one goalie). It is a points league that counts goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks, and hits. For goalies, it counts wins, saves, and goals against.

I want to talk Best Ball leagues because there’s a lot of draft data going back to the end of July that we can use. First, I want to highlight an account on Twitter called Fantasy Hockey Oracle because this person keeps track of ADP trends. Basically, we’re looking at which players are rising the most and which players are falling. Let’s start with the ADPs that have an upward trend over the last two weeks: (sept25)

18. Adin Hill (Vegas Golden Knights)

It is interesting to see Hill have such a jump, rising by eight spots in the last two weeks. I did my first draft in early August and Hill was the 14^th goalie off the board (80^th pick overall). My next draft was in the middle of August and Hill was the 12^th goalie off the board (76^th pick). In a recent draft from Tuesday night, Hill was the 11^th goalie drafted (61^st overall). Basically, since the start of draft season, Hill has risen over a full round by ADP, and in some drafts the jump has been about 20 picks.  

What is weird is that it’s not as if there’s been some injuries to key goalies ahead of him or anything like that. There is a bit of uncertainty around MacKenzie Blackwood, but he’s still consistently being drafted in the 5^th-7^th range among goalies, and ahead of Hill. It is just people straight up drafting him over options like Darcy Kuemper, Linus Ullmark, Sam Montembeault, and Jacob Markstrom.

In fairness, this system rewards goalie wins, and he should be a 30-win goalie if he can make 50-55 starts. But for a guy that has had one season of more than 35 starts and has been good-not-great over the last two years, asking me to pay an extra 1.5 rounds of premium feels like a misuse of draft capital. (sept25)

19. Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks)

Once upon a time this draft season, there was a chance to draft Celebrini somewhere in the 30s (he went 32^nd overall in my first draft about seven weeks ago). Now, if you’re not ready to use a second-round pick on him, you’re probably not going to get the chance to draft him. That is a pretty drastic rise for a player that was going in the middle of the third round to begin with.

That elevated draft spot is still fine. In my personal rankings he’s my 13^th overall skater (14^th overall pick if we include Connor Hellebuyck). I have seen a lot of projections have him as roughly a top-20 pick, too. So, if you can draft Celebrini towards the end of the second round, it is still solid value – it’s just not as good as it was 2-4 weeks ago. (sept25)

20. In yesterday’s Ramblings (above), I spent a bit of time talking about players I have drafted the most often so far this draft season. I am now up to 13 drafts, so I think it gives me a good idea of the players I’m targeting as well as the players I’m not. Today, we are going to dig into the players that I have yet to draft through 13 drafts.

I am using my personal projections which are for goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks. Each skater is projected for 82 games played unless we know they are missing time (Matthew Tkachuk, Zach Hyman). The data for the projections come from Frozen Tools, Evolving Hockey, and All Three Zones.

As always, where a player is being drafted will vary significantly by league settings. MacKenzie Weegar is absolutely going to be a top-10 defenceman off the board in multi-cat formats but may not be a top-20 defenceman in points-only formats. We are focusing on multi-cat formats, so keep that in mind.

Ivan Demidov (Montreal Canadiens)

I do a Daily Fantasy (DFS) show anywhere from 3-6 times a week during the regular season, and my co-host sent along this screenshot from a Best Ball draft he did on Wednesday night:

That is, Demidov going as the 75^th pick overall. Things will vary from league to league, but for Demidov to be a top-75 player in fantasy, he needs at least a 30-goal, 30-assist season with over 200 shots on goal. The last rookie age-20 or younger to score at least 30 goals in a season (or a similar pace for the Bubble season) was when Patrik Laine and Auston Matthews both did it in 2016-17. They also did that by both skating over 17:30 per game in TOI, a level only Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield reached for Montreal last season. Either Demidov’s rookie season sees him overtake Caufield as the team’s top winger or he’s not going to get a lot of ice time.

The real problem is the peripherals. If we get to the end of the season and Demidov has something like 28 goals and 34 assists, I wouldn’t be surprised. If he did that while also putting up over 200 shots, 40 blocks, and 80 hits, I would be very surprised. There is just no way I can draft Demidov as a top 75, top 100, or even top 125 pick. There is just no value at that price in multi-cat formats. (sept26)

21. Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes)

It’s kind of funny that in yesterday’s Ramblings, I talked about how the top Carolina wingers (Seth Jarvis, Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov) were among my most-drafted players. I do not have Aho on any teams yet, though, and it’s a function of two things.

First, he is going consistently as a top-20 centre and my projections have him as the 23^rd centre. The value isn’t that bad, but it isn’t in line with how I generally approach drafts, so he’s not finding his way to my rosters.

The second part is that even if the value for Aho is somewhat fine, there are other centres being taken in his range I would much rather target. In multi-cat formats, I would rather have guys like John Tavares, Dylan Larkin, Nico Hischier, or Joel Eriksson Ek than Aho. All those guys are going later than Aho by ADP on both Fantrax and Yahoo, and I have each of those centres as better per-game values than Aho. (sept26)

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Have a good week, folks!

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