Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I'll be breaking down some of my favorite NHL bets. The goal of Puck Picks isn't just to share picks, but to explain the why behind them, helping you recognize similar value spots on your own throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses. I'll also point out trends worth watching, like shot attempt surges, role changes, and evolving power play usage, so you can anticipate market shifts before they happen. We are in week 4 of the hockey season. Last Thursday we went a dreadful 1-6, but we are still in the green on the season:

18-15 for +2.6 units

Average bet ROI: 6% (46.11u returned on 43.5u staked)

As we are almost a month into the season, I will start to have some interesting betting data for next week, examining which types of bets have been the most or least successful for me, but that's for next week's article. Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Dallas Stars under 27.5 team shots (-121, 1.4u)

Dallas ranks dead last in Corsi For percentage (CF%; the percentage of shot attempts taken relative to their opponents) over their last five games, while Tampa Bay ranks fourth. The Stars have cleared 27 shots in only one away game this season — their opener against Winnipeg — and have since trended downward in shot generation on the road.

Their top players (Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston) are still individually capable of hitting their shot props, but this offense is running entirely through its "stars," leaving depth lines quiet. That concentration of offense makes the team under a better play than any individual player prop tonight.

Nikita Kucherov 4+ shots (+120, 1u), 5+ shots (+260, 0.3u)

Kucherov leads the NHL in shot attempts per game over the past five contests — close to 11 attempts per night. He's only hitting the net on about 30% of those, well below his usual 50% mark. Dallas has a defensive structure that funnels shots toward the perimeter, especially from wingers, which fits Kucherov's profile perfectly. He'll have space to rip from the circles on both the power play and in transition. This is a pure volume and regression play — if his accuracy normalizes, these hit comfortably.

Trevor Zegras point (-112, 1.2u)

Zegras has quietly been producing again, posting a point in seven of his past nine games. His ice time has climbed above 18 minutes per night the past two games, and although he's officially on Philadelphia’s "second" power play unit, that group is playing more minutes than the first. He's also clicking nicely with Matvei Michkov at even strength — they're driving most of the offense when together. Nashville ranks bottom-10 in goals against, making this a great price for a player trending up in opportunity and confidence. I don't expect him to be under -130 for most of the season.

Dylan Cozens u2.5 shots (-186, 2u)

Cozens is averaging 2.4 SOG per game, but that number hides his inconsistency. He's gone under this mark in six of his last seven games, hitting 3+ just once in that span. At home, he's averaging only 1.3 SOG per game compared to 3.6 on the road. With Ottawa keying in on Buffalo's top line and Cozens playing mostly with Ridly Greig and Claude Giroux, this line is inflated. His volume just doesn't justify the over, even if the raw average looks close.

SGP: Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau 1+ point each with Kadri 2+ shots (+221, 0.8u), 2+ points from each (+750, .1u)

We've reached the point in the season where most correlated point combos (like Nathan MacKinnon/Martin Necas, Kyle Connor/Mark Scheifele, or Cole Caufield/Nick Suzuki) are no longer worth taking. Books have caught on and adjusted the odds for highly correlated players. But Kadri and Huberdeau remain an exception. Their line has been dominant in both CF% and xGF% at even strength, and they share the top power-play unit. The correlation between their production is still strong, and at +135, this is one of the few remaining SGP value spots. We are adding Kadri to get 2+ shots to make this a 3-leg parlay, qualifying for a Bet365 30% boost here.

Sprinkling on both to record 2+ points each at +750 is also worth a small look — Ottawa's defensive zone coverage has been leaky, ranking bottom-10 in goals against per 60.

Morgan Geekie 2+ shots (-160, 1.8u), 3+ shots (+195, 0.4u)

While the spotlight is on the Tage Thompson–David Pastrnak duel, it's actually Morgan Geekie leading the Bruins in both shot attempts and shots on goal over their past five games. He was briefly shifted to the third line mid-game last outing but could easily find himself back in the top-six and on PP1 tonight. His shooting confidence is high, and even from a depth role, his floor remains steady. Two shots should not be hard to come by for the guy who makes his living in front of the net.

Winnipeg Jets under 29.5 team shots (-113, 1.2u)

Despite facing a vulnerable defensive opponent in Chicago, the Jets are not a high-volume shooting team. Chicago actually ranks ahead of them in CF% this season, suggesting a more balanced matchup than the odds imply. With the Blackhawks' total sitting at just 24.5, the combined game script points to a lower total shot count, with Winnipeg struggling to hit 30.

Adam Pelech 2+ blocks (-155, 1.5u), 3+ blocks (+205, 0.3u)

Pelech is averaging 1.7 blocks per game this season but has quietly notched three blocks in four straight games. His heavy defensive deployment and matchup against a Carolina team that fires pucks relentlessly make this a solid angle. The Hurricanes are third in the league in opponent blocked shots, continuing to shoot through traffic rather than around it. That's the kind of high-volume environment that keeps block props live all game.

Final Thoughts

We're officially entering the stage of the season where sportsbooks have tightened up on the most obvious player combinations and early mispricing of most props. We can no longer pair Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt to each get a point for +115 – which is now usually around -150. That means it's time to get more selective — focusing on team totals, secondary props, and subtle correlation plays that haven't fully been corrected.

Next week, I will be diving into some of the trends that have emerged this month in terms of my success in each bet category. Are shot props more profitable than point props? What about unders vs overs? See you next week with those answers! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.

Ryan Brudner

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