Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

With that said, last week was pretty dreadful. We went 3-5 for a loss of 4.8 units. We were counting on some high probability plays in the (-180 to -210) range and missed most of them. With these odds implying 65-70% implied probabilities, we unfortunately fell into that unlikely 30%. This brings Puck Pick's overall record to 26-23 for -0.8 units. We are down for the first point this season, which will happen every year at some point even for the best sports bettors.

Last week I examined the differences between the negative odds plays vs the positive odds. This week, I want to look at Player Shot Prop Unders vs Overs and Player Shots vs Team Shots, two of the most important categories in my betting portfolio — and two that show clear differences in returns so far.

Player Shot Prop Unders vs Overs

Across more than 1,000 bets so far this season, my returns on player shot unders sit at +3.67% average bet ROI, while player shot overs have returned only +0.05%.

It's not that overs can't be profitable, but the market is usually more efficient on them, especially as the season goes on. I had a lot of success in the first two weeks on the overs, but that has come back down to earth and I need to be more careful picking my spots as the books have caught up to what is happening in the league. Sportsbooks also price player overs aggressively since recreational bettors prefer to bet on players doing something rather than not doing something. When books overinflate those overs, the value often lies on the under. I'm not fading shot-takers blindly, but when a player's ice time dips or their attempts start trending down while their line stays static (or even rises), that's a good time to target an under.

Player Shots vs Team Shots

Another profitable split has been team shots (+10.5% average bet ROI) compared to player shots (+1.02% average bet ROI).

Team shots give you a broader margin for variance — if one line struggles, another can still push the total over. Individual shot props rely on deployment, linemates, and puck luck. There is a lot less variability in team shots than looking at a single player. When we examine the Corsi and Fenwick trends, we get a nice edge on the current team shot markets. I've had consistent edges on team shots and goalie saves, as they're essentially mirror markets that allow you to play off each other depending on the line movement. For reference, goalie saves have returned 8.6% so far for me.

Tonight's Picks

Now let’s dive into tonight’s Puck Picks and hopefully get back into the green!

Parlay – William Nylander and David Pastrnak 1+ Point Parlay (-115, 1.5u)

Both Nylander (-265) and Pastrnak (-278) are +EV standalone plays on BetRivers/BallyBet/NorthStarBets. We are looking at around a 5% +EV play when taking into account the -310 line for both players on many other books. Combining them gives us fair odds at -115.

Auston Matthews isn't playing but it won't change much here. Nylander drives Toronto's top line and should see a ton of ice time. Pastrnak faces an Ottawa team giving up the 4th-most goals per game this season and ranks among the worst penalty kills in the league, allowing him to thrive in his secure PP1 role.

Detroit Shooters

Larkin 3+ Shots (-143, 1.2u) | 4+ (+175, .4u)

Patrick Kane 3+ Shots (-106, 1u) | 4+ (+240, .5u) | 5+ (+550, .2u)

Detroit vs. Anaheim has "high shot volume" written all over it. Anaheim and Detroit have participated in plenty of high shot affairs over the season, including their last matchup where Larkin did achieve 3 SOG on 6 attempts. Anaheim ranks 3rd-last in Corsi Against per 60 at even strength (shot attempts) and gives up the most shots to centres in the league relative to Winger and Defenseman — great news for Larkin, who has cleared the 3+ line in 11 of his 16 GP and all five of his last five GPs.

As for Kane, his first two games back from injury have been promising — 6 and 5 SOG respectively — and with DeBrincat moved up to the top line, Kane's now the trigger man on L2. I like Larkin’s 3+ line best, but I really like the upper rungs of Kane’s ladder (the 4+ and 5+) here, ensuring we still make profit if he gets 3.

Coronato Shot Ladder

3+ (-165, 1.5u) | 4+ (+154, .5u) | 5+ (+330, .2u) | 6+ (+700, .1u) | 7+ (+1500, .05u)

As much as I talked about how the overs aren’t yielding as much profit (if any) as the unders, I can’t ignore when an over is yelling at me through my screens. Coronato’s lines are doing just that. Coronato's deployment spike has been massive lately — 19:10 TOI over his last three games (up from 14:58 in his prior 3). Playing with Jonathan Huberdeau and Morgan Frost, he's averaging 9.67 shot attempts per game and achieved 11, 5, and 6 SOG in the past three.

San Jose is bottom-5 in even-strength shots against over their past 10 games and worst in the league overall. They also allow more shots to wingers than to centres or defensemen. This ladder could cash multiple rungs if not all of them.

Mitch Marner 1+ Assist (-170, 2u)

This is a classic case of assist vs point prop value. Marner's point line is -300 — yet you can grab his assist at -170. That's a strong differential given how rarely he shoots the puck himself. When he does, they're often low-danger rebound looks. He's constantly hunting the perfect setup pass, and skating alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, two natural finishers, that trend should continue. His playmaking instincts and line mates' scoring talent make this price excellent value against an Islanders team allowing 3.31 Goals Against per game.

Adam Fantilli Anytime Goal (+240, .3u)

Fantilli's promotion to the top line with Marchenko and Voronkov has immediately sparked results. That trio has been one of Columbus' most productive at even strength, and Fantilli has averaged 7.5 shot attempts per game over his last four games. He's also now seeing top power play time, where he scored last game. His current +240 price still assumes second-line usage — closer to +180 would be fair.

SGP – Nick Suzuki & Cole Caufield 1+ Point Each (-115, 1.1u)

We're running it back here after it came up short last week. These two remain one of the most correlated duos in hockey, sharing even-strength and top power play time. Dallas is a tough defensive matchup, but Montreal's top line continues to generate quality scoring chances, and it's hard to see one hitting the scoresheet without the other.

Next week, I'll examine my returns in other categories of bets alongside my picks. See you next week. Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.

Ryan Brudner

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