Saturday Picks: Sens in a Smash Spot, Blues Keep Rolling, Caufield Lets It Fly
Flip Livingstone
2026-03-21
Time is running out on our regular-season betting options on our favourite day of the NHL wagering week. With less than a month of the 2025-26 campaign remaining, expect the intensity of games with teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot to go up a number of notches while squads separate contenders from pretenders. Onto today's slate that features a number of excellent spots we like to pad the pocketbook and build a little bankroll before springtime hockey really starts to pop off. As always, my fellow degenerates: good luck and let's get this paper.
Updated 2025-26 Saturday Record (Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks):
Gold: 7-7
Silver: 7-7
Bronze: 10-4
Side Bets: 19-21
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Gold Selection
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: Senators PL -1.5 (-110)
This is the classic case of two teams heading in completely opposite directions. The Toronto Maple Leafs roll into this one on the second night of a tough back-to-back after dropping Friday's tilt to the Carolina Hurricanes in overtime, and it's hard to draw up a much worse situational spot. Fatigue, travel, and now a hungry divisional opponent waiting.
That opponent? The Ottawa Senators—a team that already showed earlier this season they can light up Toronto, hanging five goals on them in their previous meeting.
Goaltending is a major edge here too. Anthony Stolarz has struggled mightily this season with a .894 SV% and a 3.34 GAA, and that's a dangerous combo going up against an Ottawa power play that ranks inside the top 10. This is a spot where the Sens' special teams could absolutely tilt the ice. At the other end, Linus Ullmark is starting to look like the stabilizing presence Ottawa has been searching for. A .913 SV% over his last three starts tells you he's finding rhythm—and when Ullmark is on, this team plays with noticeably more confidence across all 200 feet.
Put it all together: rest advantage, goaltending edge, prior matchup success, and a dangerous power play. This sets up as a statement-type win for Ottawa, and the puck line gives us the value we're after.
Silver Selection
St. Louis Blues @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Blues ML (-152)
Much like the Leafs above, this one is seemingly obvious: Vancouver is brutal. Simple and plain, straight up and down. It's fade-o-clock in Van City.
The St. Louis Blues are quietly becoming one of those teams nobody wants to deal with down the stretch. A 6-2-2 run over their last 10 games shows a group that's buying in, playing structured hockey, and grinding out results even after moving out key pieces at the NHL's trade deadline. Even better? They've had Vancouver Canucks' number, going 6-2-2 in their last 10 head-to-head matchups.
And history in this building matters—St. Louis has won six of their last seven trips into Vancouver.
Now let's talk about just how rough things are for the Canucks. A league-worst minus-76 goal differential tells the story. They're leaking chances defensively and generating very little offensively. It's a full-ice problem, and it's not getting fixed overnight. In net, the Blues have found a spark. While Jordan Binnington has struggled through one of the worst seasons of his career, Joel Hofer has stepped in and completely flipped the script. A 5-0-2 record with a .951 SV% over his last seven games is elite-level play, and right now, he's the guy.
This feels like a controlled road win. Blues dictate pace, limit chances, and Hofer continues his heater.
Bronze Selection
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens – Pick: Cole Caufield 3+ Shots (-198)
They call Caufield Mr. Saturday Night for a reason – the kid just shows out on the biggest hockey night of the week and he’s quickly making a name for himself as one of the best pure shooters in the game today.
Cole Caufield has been letting it fly all season, and his role in the Montreal Canadiens offense continues to grow alongside an exciting young core featuring Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Ivan Demidov.
The matchup lines up nicely too. Against the New York Islanders, Caufield has consistently found ways to generate looks—six goals in 10 career games while averaging 3.2 shots per game in those matchups.
From a numbers standpoint, the Islanders allow 28.1 shots per game, which gives opposing top-line shooters a solid runway to hit volume props like this. And with Caufield's shoot-first mentality, he doesn't need much time or space to rack these up.
At home, on a Saturday night, with confidence and opportunity on his side—this is a spot where Caufield should comfortably get to his number.
Side Bets
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens – Pick: Under 6.5 (-156)
Boston Bruins @ Detroit Red Wings – Pick: Red Wings ML (-125)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers – Pick: Over 6.5 (-130)
Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting expert, fantasy writer, and daily podcast host with the Locked On Fantasy Hockey pod. He also has experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him @Flips_Picks.