Saturday’s Game Picks: Leafs/Habs Lock Horns With Playoff Series Looming

Flip Livingstone

2021-05-08

When you're hot, you're hot, right? The past two weeks have been all I could ask for when it comes to predicting games and making picks, as an 11-1 overall record over the last 14 days has my 2021 tally sitting at a respectable 37-29. See below for the total Gold, Silver, Bronze breakdown, but either way you slice it, wins are wins and I'm feeling another profitable week.

I hope you've also been putting a little extra loot in your pocket, too, so be sure you are following along @Flip_Picks on Twitter for all your Saturday picks needs. As I mentioned last week when discussing this stretch of schedule, the unpredictability that the looming postseason brings can make for some very dodgy wagering situations. With all but two playoff spots already clinched most teams don't have anything to play for other than potentially relishing in the spoiler role.

However, with a little extra research and some advice from your boy, you will have everything you need to conquer the last full betting Saturday of the NHL campaign. Let's keep it simple and let's keep winning, shall we? Good luck.

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2021 record:

Gold: 6-5

Silver: 8-3
Bronze: 6-5

Side bets: 17-16

Overall: 37-29

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Gold Pick
Philadelphia Flyers @ Washington Capitals (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Over

I'm pretty sure every single Over bet that I've won this year has included the Philadelphia Flyers. Whether it be their ragtag blue-line, tendency to score and allow goals in bunches, or the goalie graveyard they've been building over the past 25 years, I just love betting on Overs when this Philly team takes the ice – especially when they face off against the second-highest scoring team in the NHL.

Washington's offensively-balanced lineup going up against the Swiss cheese-like backend the Flyers employ has me feeling extremely comfortable laying a nice bet on the Over here. The Caps are very much for real and have been successful this season scoring against Philly, totaling three goals or more in all seven 2021 meetings.

Another solid reason to back a high-scoring game in this one? How about the fact that the only team in the league who's given up more goals this year than Philadelphia is the Buffalo Sabres, and that's by only two goals. That's a seriously awful stat to hear if you're rocking with the Orange and Black, but a good one when you have money on multiple pucks crossing the red line.

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Four of Philly's last five games in Washington have all gone Over the number and that happens once again today. Do a little digging if you're betting online and see if you can get this at an even 6, but either way I like this one to go Over in a hurry.

Silver Pick
Carolina Hurricanes @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Predators

This is one of those spots that I'm not usually in – going against what the recent matchups and head-to-head stats tell us. The Hurricanes have dominated the latest meetings between these two Central Division rivals, boasting a crispy 9-1-0 record over the last 10 and six in a row when playing in Nashville. However, before laying an egg Wednesday night against the lowly Blue Jackets, the Preds were playing really solid hockey, as a 4-1-0 record over their previous five games has Nashville clinging to the fourth and final playoff spot in the Central.

It's simple for the Predators: win and you're in. With one game remaining and a two-point cushion on the Dallas Stars, John Hynes' crew holds its destiny in its own hands. Like I said up top, I am keeping it real simple this week. Nashville needs a win to secure a postseason berth and the Hurricanes have nothing to play for except pride, as Carolina has the division and playoff seeding already wrapped up.

You could play it real safe here and take Nashville on the puckline +1.5, but the odds on that bad boy will be something you'll regret wagering on if they end up getting pumped. At the very least the Preds keep this one close all the way through, but I like their chances to punch their postseason ticket with a W.

Bronze Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Under

While you know the Blue and White deep inside me wants to just HAMMER a next big wager on Toronto to bang out another big win against the Habs, but I'm trying to keep a level head and feed you what you need: straight winners.

I do still think the Leafs send another message tonight with a convincing win as a playoff series against Montreal looms, but I also really like this spot for a low-scoring, playoff-type tilt. Now, the last time these two Original Six rivals met the total did go Over with a 5-2 Leafs win, but there are still a couple factors working in our favor when it comes to an Under wager.

Aside from Jack Campbell finding his game in the Leafs net of late (5-0-1, .941 save percentage, 1.83 goals-against average), four of Toronto's last six have all been games finishing Under the total, including a 3-2 finish against Montreal to start the week. The Canadiens and Leafs are on a collision course set for the playoffs and I expect that tone to be in the building right from puck drop. Tease the line up a bit and take the Under 6.5 goals, good for my Bronze Pick of the week.

Side Bets

Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers – Pick: Oilers -1.5

Arizona Coyotes @ San Jose Sharks (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Under

New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders – Pick: Islanders

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 30 - 13:03 FLA vs MTL
Mar 30 - 15:03 WSH vs BUF
Mar 30 - 15:03 WPG vs VAN
Mar 30 - 16:03 CHI vs UTA
Mar 30 - 17:03 CAR vs NYI
Mar 30 - 17:03 PIT vs OTT
Mar 30 - 20:03 ANA vs TOR
Mar 30 - 22:03 L.A vs S.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DYLAN COZENS OTT
LEO CARLSSON ANA
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
MATVEI MICHKOV PHI
MACKIE SAMOSKEVICH FLA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
DARCY KUEMPER L.A
CAM TALBOT DET
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY T.B

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency STL Players
23.2 BRAYDEN SCHENN JORDAN KYROU DYLAN HOLLOWAY
22.6 ROBERT THOMAS JAKE NEIGHBOURS PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
14.0 NATHAN WALKER ALEXEY TOROPCHENKO RADEK FAKSA

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