DFS Thursday: Project a Panther and Ranger Bounceback

Stephen Dotzel

2022-05-05

It's playoff time and I'm taking advantage of these four-game slates while we have them. After the first round, we're looking at what will most likely be just two-game slates and eventually of course one-game showdowns. I was fortunate enough to start the playoffs on a high note with a $500 third place finish with one of my three lineups in Monday's $15 Kick Save contest on DraftKings.

While Edmonton was the team I paid up for here, it was really the Blues stack that did most of the damage. Funny how it plays out sometimes as I really wasn't on the Blues but given the expensive price tags on Edmonton my options were really limited and St. Louis just fell into my lap. I stuck with the traditional 4-3-1 build (4 players from Team X, 3 players from Team Y, 1 player from Team Z) and included my goalie with one of the stacks (Team X or Y), which really paid off. Hopefully we can find similar success tonight.

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All players and prices are from DraftKings but can be applied to any site.

Top-Tier Stack to Target

With Tuesday's slate having been exactly the same as this one, we can look at ownership from those contests and have a really good idea of where people are going to go with their lineups. That will be Colorado who had four of the top six skaters in terms of DraftKings contest ownership, and then parlayed that into seven goals. As a result, their ownership probably goes up even further Thursday and you're likely to see Nathan MacKinnon ($8,900) and Mikko Rantanen ($7,000) pushing 40% owned. Numbers that high are tough to stomach for large field tournaments and set up well for those who want to be contrarian in case Colorado flops.

However, assuming they don't and you want to play it safe, look at adding secondary options such as Valeri Nichushkin ($4,700) and Nazem Kadri ($6,600) into your stacks with the big guns as they will come with a significant ownership discount. On Tuesday, those players were found in roughly 15% and 10% of lineups respectively, compared to the 30-40% for the duo above.

Also consider Florida. Surprisingly the Panthers players were mostly an afterthought in Tuesday's contest with Jonathan Huberdeau ($7,100) sharing ownership numbers similar to Tyler Toffoli and Matt Duchene. Factor in Florida's loss and some recency bias that perhaps they're in trouble already and I think they get passed over here again. Stack up Hubs with the likes of Claude Giroux ($4,600), Aleksander Barkov ($7,300), and Aaron Ekblad ($6,300) in the hopes this high-flying offense comes back in a major way.

Mid-Tier Stack to Target

Louis Domingue was the feel-good story of Tuesday's set of games, coming in for Casey DeSmith in the middle of the second overtime and helping the Penguins pick up a win. However, he's a third string and perennial AHL goalie for a reason, and I think with a full game and fresh legs this time Domingue is in some trouble. Stack up the skaters from the Rangers top power play unit such as Chris Kreider ($5,900), Mika Zibanejad ($6,200), Artemi Panarin ($5,100), and Adam Fox ($6,200). Ryan Strome ($4,000) can be subbed in as well if you need the salary discount. The combination of matchup and price makes the Rangers my favorite stack of the night for tournaments.

Value Stack to Target

Value stacks are tough to come by in the playoffs, but there are still some options if you dig enough. Sticking with the Florida bounceback theme, their third line of Sam Reinhart ($4,400), Mason Marchment ($4,100), and Anton Lundell ($3,100) have exploded and blown up slates in the past. In addition to the low ownership that will come with them, the cheap tags will allow you to fit any top tier stack you desire.

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Cheap Power Play 1 Plugs

C – Nicklas Backstrom ($3,000), Ryan Johansen ($3,300), Strome ($4,000)

W – Alexander Radulov ($2,500), T.J. Oshie ($3,300), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,500)

D – John Klingberg ($4,400), Noah Hanifin ($4,700)

Goalie Picks

When in doubt, include your goalie with one of the team stacks within your lineup in the hopes of picking up the win if your stack performs well. Otherwise, consider:

Igor Shesterkin ($8,500) – I'm a little worried about the effects of a triple overtime, 79(!!) save game might have on Shesterkin on a short turnaround, but he's the best goalie in the league and he showed it Tuesday. You can't expect 46.30 DraftKings points again but 30 saves, a win, and a goal or two allowed will be fine.

Sergei Bobrovsky ($7,900) – I wanted to go Jacob Markstrom here, but with Dallas only mustering 16 shots on Tuesday I have doubts he will see the type of volume to make a good DraftKings goalie. So instead I'll turn to Bobrovsky who stopped 34 shots on Tuesday in what will be a game I think Florida wins this time around.

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

May 06 - 20:05 FLA vs BOS

Starting Goalies

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AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
NOAH HANIFIN VGK
ANDREI SVECHNIKOV CAR
JACK EICHEL VGK

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JEREMY SWAYMAN BOS
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
ADIN HILL VGK
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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J

LINE COMBOS

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26.5 TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER JESPER BRATT
20.4 DAWSON MERCER ALEXANDER HOLTZ ERIK HAULA
10.2 ONDREJ PALAT TOMAS NOSEK NOLAN FOOTE

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