Saturday’s Game Picks: Continue the Under on Calgary/Dallas

Vlad Zorila

2022-05-07

Welcome back my beloved readers. For those of you who were heavy hearted about having to wait another five months before getting to read some of my articles again, worry no more. We are back for the playoffs, and you can expect this to be the most fascinating portion of the season.

Individual regular season games are one big cluster of randomness and timing. Anything can happen to anyone on any given day, and it is usually my job to try and put some sense into things and rationalize this gigantic interrogation. Playoff games are the exact opposite. While chance and timing still play a crucial role, there's a sense of logic and continuity in the playoffs that you just don't see anywhere else in professional sports.

I am beyond excited to get into these picks and predictions, so much so that I will be adding an additional day for postseason picks! You will also be able to read my articles on Wednesdays from now on. Thus, let us wait no longer.

Gold Pick

Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars (Over/under 5.5) – Pick: Under

It would be hard for me at this stage to choose who would come out on top in a game between these two teams, especially after they've exchanged wins in the two previous games played in Calgary. In both those games, the losing team has stayed within two goals of their rivals. Additionally, I am the only writer in the Dobber team who predicted Dallas to move on to the second round, so I would certainly have a bias there.

That being said, I am strongly confident that the low-scoring tendency that's taken place in this series so far will continue. We are witnessing an admirable goaltending duel here, the most impressive one in the first round if you ask me. After two games, Jacob Markstrom has a .974 save percentage while playoff rookie Jake Oettinger is rolling on .982. Granted, the sample size is very small still, but both goaltenders aren't showing any signs of slowing down whatsoever. Their respective defensive units are doing an admirable job to keep them safe so far as no team has shot the puck on target more than 30 times in a game so far.

Admittedly, there is a chance that some guys like Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, Jason Robertson or Joe Pavelski, who have all been fairly quiet until now, could break out, but I am still betting on the defensive side to remain dominant in this matchup on both sides.

Silver Pick

Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Panthers

To say that Florida had a disappointing first game would be an understatement. From top to bottom, pretty much their whole squad underperformed. Sergei Bobrovsky gave away three goals. His defenders didn't facilitate things for him by allowing a whopping 37 shots on goal. Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair and Sam Reinhart were all unable to get on the statline. That being said, two days later, they quickly reminded everyone why they were considered the strongest team in the league. They only allowed 27 shots, of which Bobrovsky only let one in and all their star forwards named above grabbed at least a point during the game. Despite only shooting 19 times on net, they were extremely efficient by burying five of those.

Everyone should expect that kind of dominance for the rest of the series. Their level of talent upfront is hardly believable to be possible in the salary cap era, and their defenders aren't any less impressive. Additionally, they have one card up their sleeve that makes them truly unique this postseason in their goaltending tandem. If ever Bobrovsky, who's had a solid regular season, was to go down to an injury or an off-night, they can always count on former first-rounder Spencer Knight, who finished the season in an admirable fashion. On that front, they completely outperform Washington, who must rely on a serviceable Vitek Vanecek and a disappointing Ilya Samsonov as a backup. I don't think Florida will drop another game this series, so make sure to be there and enjoy their victories along with them.

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Bronze Pick

Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators – Pick: Avalanche (-1.5)

After an impressive first game, the Avalanche mightily struggled to get away with the win at home in game two. But that's what great teams do. They win the tight games, those heartbreaking faceoffs in which it all comes down to the line and the loser goes home completely heartbroken. What's another thing that great teams do? They come back from difficult games in a stimulating fashion. Not only are the Avs (obviously) a great team, but they are also starting to acquire something that's common in almost all Stanley cup winning teams: playoff experience.

Indeed, the Avalanche are now in their fifth postseason in a row, and they are hungrier than ever. This pick isn't made to undermine the impressive Predators, who've left the whole hockey world on the edge of their seats all season long with amazing performances by their key players, but they are now facing the Goliath of all Goliaths in the NHL. There's no need to spend two other paragraphs explaining this pick, as Colorado's roster speaks for itself. Don't overthink it, bet on the Avs.

Side Bets

Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goal Scorer @ 2.20

Jason Robertson Anytime Goal Scorer @ 2.55

New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Total shots on goal over/under 69.5) – Pick: Under @ 1.75

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UPCOMING GAMES

May 15 - 19:05 WSH vs CAR
May 15 - 21:05 WPG vs DAL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
MATTHEW KNIES TOR
MARCO KASPER DET
MARCO ROSSI MIN
WILLIAM NYLANDER TOR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
STUART SKINNER EDM
ADIN HILL VGK
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
CALVIN PICKARD EDM

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
22.3 KIRILL KAPRIZOV JOEL ERIKSSON EK MATT BOLDY
13.9 MATS ZUCCARELLO RYAN HARTMAN MARCUS FOLIGNO
6.7 GUSTAV NYQUIST MARCUS JOHANSSON FREDERICK GAUDREAU

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