Ramblings: Lindgren/Thompson, Sorokin, Players Ranked Too High in Yahoo (Sep 7)
Ian Gooding
2024-09-07
The Offseason Fantasy Grades articles have now been completed for all 32 teams. You can view them all at The Dobotomy page. Remember, these articles won't predict where each team will finish in the standings, but instead they provide a quick rundown of each team's offseason changes, prospects that might be ready for a full-time NHL role, and a general overview of the team from a fantasy perspective.
Thank you to all of the writers who took a bit of time out of their summer to contribute to these articles. Your contributions help the editors – including myself – tremendously.
I've also learned a thing or two by reading through these. One recent example is in the Washington article, where TJ Branson addresses the goaltending situation. This one is not an easy one to figure out. Charlie Lindgren backstopped a few fantasy titles and a Capitals' playoff spot in 2023-24 thanks to his play down the stretch. Yet TJ also brought up the fact that Logan Thompson had requested a trade from Vegas in an attempt to secure more playing time elsewhere. I'm not sure that moving from partnering with Adin Hill to a tandem with Lindgren will accomplish that, but for that reason the Capitals might feel compelled to lean toward Thompson as the starter.
Although Lindgren might be the hot goalie, he had his career best season at age 30 while playing at least 40 games in a season for the first time in his career. Despite the recent success, Lindgren is also hardly a proven commodity when it comes to being a starting goalie. Although younger, Thompson also has started over 40 games only once in his career. This goaltending battle is probably a timeshare, but I can buy into the arguments both ways on this one.
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I wonder if we should drop Ilya Sorokin down the preseason draft rankings similar to what has happened with Thatcher Demko. Elliotte Friedman disclosed on the most recent 32 Thoughts podcast that he thinks Sorokin has been battling something. It at least sheds some more light on why Semyon Varlamov played a lot down the stretch and in the playoffs in 2023-24. Currently Sorokin is ranked #70 at Yahoo, which isn't really among the elite like he was last season. However, this is something to keep an eye on in case this is something that affects his training camp availability.
That 32 Thoughts episode with new host Kyle Bukauskas is a long one, but it is worth a listen as they cover all 32 teams.
Beckett Sennecke will need 6-8 weeks of recovery following a foot fracture during offseason training. I don't think the odds were that high of Sennecke making the Ducks out of training camp before this happened, so I think you can rule it out now.
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Yesterday I listed a few players who I believe are ranked too low by Yahoo. Today I will flip it around and concentrate on players who I think are ranked too high by Yahoo. Keep in mind that these are not ADPs, which could be more accurate once we have a larger sample size of drafts.
Jeremy Swayman (Yahoo rank: 28)
Swayman's value has been trending upward since the playoffs, when he was named the Bruins' starter and his goaltending and hug partner Linus Ullmark was traded to Ottawa. Swayman will finally carry the mail for the Bruins, but should he already be ranked among the elite?
The concern that I have with Swayman is the fact that he has no track record as a starter beyond the playoffs. He was pretty good in the playoffs with a 2.15 GAA and .933 SV% in 12 games, but the playoffs have taught us that we shouldn't necessarily extrapolate a strong playoff run into the following season. The top tier should be reserved for more established high-volume performers such as Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck. Since I'm a proponent of Zero G, it's unlikely that I draft any goalie at 28 anyway, let alone Swayman.
As of this time, Swayman and the Bruins have not reached a contract agreement. Keep an eye on this if it drags into training camp.
Brad Marchand (Yahoo rank: 35)
It might seem like I'm picking on the Bruins, but the fact that two of them are here is pure coincidence. I had Marchand in this spot even before news surfaced on Tuesday that Marchand underwent three surgeries this offseason – elbow, groin, and hernia. Because of these medical procedures, Marchand only resumed offseason training about two and a half weeks ago. He had played through a torn elbow tendon for the entire 2023-24 season, so perhaps he will be in better shape in 2024-25. However, he may need additional time to be game-ready, although he still expects to be at training camp.
At age 36, Marchand is already a diminishing asset. His points-per-game averages have declined for three consecutive seasons, from 1.30 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 1.14 PTS/GP to 0.92 PTS/GP to 0.82 PTS/GP in 2023-24. He should still be a top-line player for the Bruins, but he should no longer be considered a top-tier fantasy asset. Let someone else draft him in the top 40.
Blake Coleman (Yahoo rank: 76)
Coleman has shown in the past that he can add value in hits and shots while even scoring some goals. In 2023-24, he was able to put it all together in the goal department for a career-high 30 goals. However, there are numerous signs that a similar season is simply not sustainable. For starters, Coleman registered 25 of his 54 points over the second quarter alone (21 games), while he picked up just 29 points in his other 57 games. As well, a 15.7 SH% when his career shooting percentage is just over 10%. In addition, Coleman is not a top power-play option for the Flames and never has been throughout his career.
Although these options don't deliver the hits at the same frequency as Coleman, Clayton Keller, Seth Jarvis, and Cole Caufield all offer significantly higher scoring upside. Coleman is a better option later in your draft when you might still be trying to cover the hits category. Otherwise, there should be plenty of options that will do that for you. Coleman should really be ranked similar to Lawson Crouse (154), who has a similar fantasy profile.
Gustav Forsling (Yahoo rank: 93)
This is a case of a defenseman being better in real life than in fantasy leagues, but the real-life value seems to be creeping into the fantasy value. We know Forsling's story as a former waiver-wire claim who led the league with a plus-56 in 2023-24 while earning an eight-year contract and even Norris Trophy votes. I'm not saying he's not an outstanding defender. I'm just here to say that his Yahoo rank is inflated.
Forsling has averaged 39 points over the past three seasons, and he has cracked the 40-point mark just once in his career. In fact, Forsling is ranked just one spot behind Noah Dobson, who is a much better option in fantasy leagues, as we mentioned yesterday. Similarly ranked players also include Miro Heiskanen and Devon Toews, who are far superior scorers.
I'll acknowledge this tweet in the sense that if Forsling can grab the top power-play spot for the Panthers, then this might not seem like as bad a pick. But I'm waiting until after pick 100 regardless – even if word is that he will play on PP1. Nearly all of the d-men ranked within the top 100 are in that role and can be counted on for power-play points.
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