Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates can be made as news changes, and there’s certainly been a lot of that this week.

Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.

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1. The Offseason Fantasy Grades articles have now been completed for all 32 teams. You can view them all at The Dobotomy page. Remember, these articles won’t predict where each team will finish in the standings, but instead they provide a quick rundown of each team’s offseason changes, prospects that might be ready for a full-time NHL role, and a general overview of the team from a fantasy perspective.

2. I’ve also learned a thing or two by reading through these. One recent example is in the Washington article, where TJ Branson addresses the goaltending situation. This one is not an easy one to figure out. Charlie Lindgren backstopped a few fantasy titles and a Capitals’ playoff spot in 2023-24 thanks to his play down the stretch. Yet TJ also brought up the fact that Logan Thompson had requested a trade from Vegas in an attempt to secure more playing time elsewhere. I’m not sure that moving from partnering with Adin Hill to a tandem with Lindgren will accomplish that, but for that reason the Capitals might feel compelled to lean toward Thompson as the starter.

Although Lindgren might be the hot goalie, he had his career best season at age 30 while playing at least 40 games in a season for the first time in his career. Despite the recent success, Lindgren is also hardly a proven commodity when it comes to being a starting goalie. Although younger, Thompson also has started over 40 games only once in his career. This goaltending battle is probably a timeshare, but I can buy into the arguments both ways on this one. (sept7)

3. I wonder if we should drop Ilya Sorokin down the preseason draft rankings similar to what has happened with Thatcher Demko. Elliotte Friedman disclosed on the most recent 32 Thoughts podcast that he thinks Sorokin has been battling something. It at least sheds some more light on why Semyon Varlamov played a lot down the stretch and in the playoffs in 2023-24. Currently Sorokin is ranked #70 at Yahoo, which isn’t really among the elite like he was last season. However, this is something to keep an eye on in case this is something that affects his training camp availability.

That 32 Thoughts episode with new host Kyle Bukauskas is a long one, but it is worth a listen as they cover all 32 teams. (sept7)

4. Yesterday I listed a few players who I believe are ranked too low by Yahoo. Today I will flip it around and concentrate on players who I think are ranked too high by Yahoo. Keep in mind that these are not ADPs, which could be more accurate once we have a larger sample size of drafts.

Jeremy Swayman (Yahoo rank: 28)

Swayman’s value has been trending upward since the playoffs, when he was named the Bruins’ starter and his goaltending and hug partner Linus Ullmark was traded to Ottawa. Swayman will finally carry the mail for the Bruins, but should he already be ranked among the elite?

The concern that I have with Swayman is the fact that he has no track record as a starter beyond the playoffs. He was pretty good in the playoffs with a 2.15 GAA and .933 SV% in 12 games, but the playoffs have taught us that we shouldn’t necessarily extrapolate a strong playoff run into the following season. The top tier should be reserved for more established high-volume performers such as Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck. Since I’m a proponent of Zero G, it’s unlikely that I draft any goalie at 28 anyway, let alone Swayman. 

As of this time, Swayman and the Bruins have not reached a contract agreement. Keep an eye on this if it drags into training camp. (sept7)

5. Brad Marchand (Yahoo rank: 35)

It might seem like I’m picking on the Bruins, but the fact that two of them are here is pure coincidence. I had Marchand in this spot even before news surfaced on Tuesday that Marchand underwent three surgeries this offseason – elbow, groin, and hernia. Because of these medical procedures, Marchand only resumed offseason training about two and a half weeks ago. He had played through a torn elbow tendon for the entire 2023-24 season, so perhaps he will be in better shape in 2024-25. However, he may need additional time to be game-ready, although he still expects to be at training camp.

At age 36, Marchand is already a diminishing asset. His points-per-game averages have declined for three consecutive seasons, from 1.30 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 1.14 PTS/GP to 0.92 PTS/GP to 0.82 PTS/GP in 2023-24. He should still be a top-line player for the Bruins, but he should no longer be considered a top-tier fantasy asset. Let someone else draft him in the top 40. (sept7)

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6. To make the most of your fantasy draft, it’s a good idea to review the default Yahoo rankings beforehand. ADP (average draft position) numbers are useful on draft day, but they might be misleading today due to the very small sample size of lack of fantasy hockey drafts at this point. Most fantasy leagues would rather draft later in September or in early October to potentially avoid the risk of drafting a player that is suddenly hit with an unexpected and serious injury.

In the meantime, here are some players to target due to unnecessarily low default rankings in Yahoo. These are players that you could wait a little longer on that could provide similar value as some players being drafted earlier.

Tim Stutzle (Yahoo rank: 54)

I saw drafts in which Stutzle was going in the top 20 last season, which resulted in me deciding to let someone else draft Stutzle in my various leagues given his limited track record in that stratosphere. After a significant 20-point drop, Stutzle is now being ranked outside of the top 50 by Yahoo. At just 22 years old and a one-time 90-point scorer, Stutzle hardly fits the profile of a one-hit wonder.

Back in July, I broke down Stutzle’s decline in points, which was all in the form of goals. His shooting percentage had fallen from 17.1% in 2022-23 to 9.4% in 2023-24, with last season’s number the lowest of his four-season career. An improvement in shooting percentage to his career average could add 10 more goals, which would work out to 80 points. Based on that, you could probably reach on Stutzle about a round earlier than he is ranked. I’d still probably bet the under on him returning to 90 points, but he seems like a strong bet to rebound. (sept6)

7. Noah Dobson (Yahoo rank: 92)

In my opinion, Dobson is the most glaring example of a player ranked too low. Maybe it’s the effect of playing for the Islanders, who aren’t the most appealing team fantasy-wise. Or it could be the fact that Dobson averaged 50 points in his two seasons prior to 2022-23. Yet Dobson is still only 24 years old, so his first 70-point season may not be his last.

Only six defensemen registered more points than Dobson last season, and all are ranked above Dobson. Fair enough. Yet so are five other defensemen ranked between 58 and 78. Nothing on Dobson’s advanced stats suggests that a regression is on the way. You could argue that each of those defensemen could outscore Dobson or has some better peripherals, but I’d at least include Dobson within that range. Out of power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks, the only stat where Dobson seems below average in is hits. (sept6)

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8. Some professional tryouts were added to the list on Thursday. Calen Addison and Nikolay Kulemin have both agreed to PTOs with Ottawa, while Michael Hutchinson and Jakub Zboril will be headed to New Jersey’s camp on PTOs.

Addison is an interesting one that a few fantasy leaguers will be watching. Just two short seasons ago, Minnesota handed Addison a spot on the top power play, making him a sought-after fantasy commodity. A total of 18 of his 29 points that season were on the power play. Then the Wild lost faith in him and he was traded to San Jose, where his value sunk along with the Sharks as a team. Even though he may have glaring defensive deficiencies, Addison is only 24 years old. With Jakob Chychrun now out of the picture, there might be room on the Sens’ roster for Addison as a power-play contributor.01

As for Kulemin, my initial reaction was “didn’t he play for Toronto years ago?” Sure enough, he did. Kulemin is now 38 years old, he last played for the Leafs in 2013-14, and he last played in the NHL in 2017-18. He has spent the last six seasons playing in the KHL. He seems like a longshot to return to the NHL, but maybe I’m missing something here.

Hutchinson is a possible third goalie for the Devils. If he is signed to play in the AHL, he could prevent Nico Daws from playing any NHL games this season. (sept6)

9. For keeper league reasons, I’ve been particularly interested in where Tyson Barrie would end up. With the regular season about a month away, Barrie has settled for a PTO with the Flames. Although Barrie is not guaranteed anything, Calgary seems like the kind of team that could make room for him. The Flames’ power play was in the bottom third of the league in 2023-24, and the power play is where Barrie excels. A one-year, low-salary contract where the Flames could flip him at the deadline could make sense for both parties.

In addition to that, Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson could be on the trade block, which would improve Barrie’s odds of making the team. If Barrie cracks the lineup without anyone being moved, Daniil Miromanov could be the odd man out. Miromanov was acquired from Vegas in the Noah Hanifin deal and was used on the power play late in the season, but he is hardly a proven NHL option and has also battled his share of injuries. (sept6)

10. Two long-time NHL defensemen have officially announced their retirements.

Alex Goligoski has announced his retirement after 17 NHL seasons spread out between several teams, most recently Minnesota. Now 39 years old, Goose had some productive offensive seasons during his career, including a career-high 46 points (including 25 power-play points) split between Pittsburgh and Dallas in 2010-11. He also registered at least 35 points per season for five consecutive seasons between 2013-14 and 2017-18 with Dallas and Arizona.

Marc Staal has also announced his retirement after 17 NHL seasons, most of that spent with the Rangers. Although Staal’s game never translated well to the fantasy realm due to lack of scoring, the now-37-year-old was a reliable defender, particularly early in his NHL career. With his brother Eric Staal officially retiring earlier this summer, Jordan Staal is the only Staal brother left playing in the NHL. (sept6)

11. My last couple of Ramblings have gone over a training camp question looming over each team in the NHL. We started with the Atlantic Division and then moved to the Metro. Today, we’ll be making our way all the way to the left coast and looking at the Pacific Division.

The reigning Cup Finalists are looking to make another deep run, doormats from recent seasons are starting to bring their franchises back around, and then there are middling teams that may be overlooked. Let’s get to the Pacific to see what we should be paying attention to when camps open.

Edmonton Oilers: The Jeff Skinner/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Duality

Buffalo bought out Jeff Skinner‘s contract and the winger went and signed in Edmonton. Skinner has one of the top producers in the league across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons before a down year in 2023-24. It is probably worth noting that across the 2019-20 and 2021 COVID seasons, Skinner had 37 points in 112 games, and then in 2021-22 he jumped to 33 goals and 63 points in 80 games. He is now 32 years old, but we have already seen him have multiple down years only to bounce back in a big way. This time, he gets to another chance to do the same thing but only with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as his even strength centre.

The more interesting idea is how the team will use him on the power play. Edmonton has long had a top PP forward quartet of McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. However, both Skinner and RNH are left-hand shots that can fill a similar role with the man advantage. Is there a chance Skinner takes some time from RNH? My guess is not right away, but maybe eventually, and that’s crucial for fantasy value. Maybe training camp will clarify this for us. (sept5)

12. San Jose Sharks: Who is Running the Power Play?

It seems as if things are lining up for Henry Thrun to run San Jose’s top PP unit, especially with Calen Addison not being brought back and Ty Emberson being traded. However, the Sharks used Thrun for just 19% of the team’s PP time last season, trailing both Addison and Jacob MacDonald, according to Frozen Tools. Maybe Thrun just takes Addison’s time and he’s closer to 60%, but that’s not a guarantee yet.

Do the Sharks give Jake Walman some run? Do they try a five-forward power play? We won’t go long here because too much seems up in the air, but hopefully we get a solid indication once training camps get underway. (sept5)

13. Utah: Is Logan Cooley Going to Be The Guy or A Guy?

Nick Schmaltz has often been a centre for Arizona and the team re-signed Barrett Hayton. However, Logan Cooley took tremendous strides as a rookie last season and showed promise with Dylan Guenther. No disrespect intended towards Schmaltz and Hayton, but Cooley is the future top-line centre of the team. The question is whether that future is in 2024-25 or later than that.

There is a chance Cooley will be a top line/top power play centre for Utah immediately. There is also the chance he’s a third line/second power play centre for Utah immediately. It is the difference between being a 40- to 50-point guy and a 60- to 70-point guy. Where he’s being used in training camp might (and probably should) influence is low ADP quite a bit.

At the outset, my guess is that Schmaltz remains on the top line, perhaps with Hayton and Clayton Keller. Utah could then insulate Cooley a little bit, using him as a the second-line centre with the likes of Guenther, Matias Maccelli, and Lawson Crouse. Then again, maybe they just move Cooley right to the top line between Schmaltz and Keller and leave Hayton in a lesser role. This team has options with what they want to do with their top-6 and top power play mixes. That is good news for the team but less good news for fantasy owners. (sept5)

14. Vegas Golden Knights: The Fourth Power Play Forward

Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson are with new teams. When the Vegas Golden Knights forwards are healthy, that leaves Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl for the top power play. Presumably, William Karlsson gets the fourth forward spot, but it’s not guaranteed just yet, and they may want to use him on the second unit to try and give themselves some chance of scoring with the top guys off the ice.

There aren’t a ton of options in Vegas, but guys like Pavel Dorofeyev, Alex Holtz, and Ivan Barbashev are all potential candidates for the fourth forward spot. Karlsson may have the inside edge, but there might be a surprise that awaits us in training camp.

Very quickly, the battle for the fourth power play forward is mirrored on the blue line. Right now, the assumption is that Noah Hanifin will have that role. I have said before that I think it’ll actually be Shea Theodore, and that considering ADPs right now, I would rather take Theodore around the 30^th defenceman off the board than Hanifin as the 20^th. We should get more clarity in training camp but there are two spots on the Vegas power play that aren’t spoken for, and they’re very fantasy-relevant spots. (sept5)

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15. With Leon Draisaitl locked in now at a league-high $14 million AAV, the Oilers maintain status quo with their roster, but they may be in a tough spot cap-wise own the line. Drai goes from one of the biggest cap bargains to the most expensive – though still a very valuable player. Overall, his value in non-cap leagues stays where it is.

What this deal highlights most, is how big contracts are going to be in the coming years. In my cap league I spent the summer acquiring players with deals locked in for the next number of years like Aleksander Barkov, Roope Hintz, Morgan Rielly, and others. Locking in those players who signed longer deals during the end of the flat-cap era will give you a huge advantage in two or three years when they're still on their same deals while the cap is up over $110 Million. (sept4)

16. Brennan’s Ramblings way back on July 15^th touched on the fact that some players like Dougie Hamilton and Zach Hyman performed a lot better in year #2 with their new teams, as a point towards why he wasn’t buying too much hype around Jake Guentzel in Tampa. After reading that I felt like it might be worth diving into a few players who changed teams in the summer of 2023, and who might rebound a little in year two with their new teams, a-la Hamilton and Hyman.

Erik Karlsson was coming off a 100-point season with the Sharks, and was joining Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang in Pittsburgh, what could go wrong? Well, Malkin is slowing down, Letang and Karlsson’s style overlapped, and the rest of the team was a letdown. This time around the team has more time to sort out how to make Letang and Karlsson’s skills complement each other rather than cancelling out. He won’t hit 100 again, but I’m taking the over relative to his 56 points last year.

Taylor Hall was injured 10 games into last season and hadn’t quite figured out how to play with Connor Bedard yet. Bedard though was also trying to adjust to the NHL, only hitting a point-per-game in the fourth quarter of the season. With Hall back to full strength alongside a more developed and confident Bedard, the four points in 10 games Hall scored last year should be below his floor for this year, with the upside for a lot more.

Max Domi finished his first season with the Leafs with 16 points in 20 games, playing mainly alongside Auston Matthews. If he can keep the 15 minutes of overall ice time (augmented by the two minutes of power play time), then he could be a 60-point player again. (sept4)

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17. I want to discuss a few internal battles for power-play opportunity.

Detroit Red Wings – Gustafsson vs. Seider vs. Edvinsson

Given their similar offensively focused skillsets, it’s hard to see Erik Gustafsson as anything other than a Shayne Gostisbehere replacement. Considering Gostisbehere’s main role with Detroit last year was quarterbacking the top power play, it’s only logical that Gustafsson fills that role this year. Some will rightfully question Gus’ competence in such a role considering he’s only really had one standout season and that was roughly five years ago. However, I’m encouraged by the fact that two players who were part of that 60-point campaign in Chicago – Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat – are now with Gustafsson in Detroit. Moritz Seider is certainly capable of stepping up to the top unit if Gustafsson falters, but given Seider’s all-round excellence, it would be nice if someone else could manage power-play minutes so he’s fresh for other situations. It’s worth noting that when comparing career numbers, despite having 300 more power-play minutes under his belt, Gustafsson only has 11 more PPPs than Seider. Simon Edvinsson has offensive upside and could see top unit power-play time at some point in his career, but he’s only 25 games into his NHL career and has just four points to his name. He’ll need some more time to settle in before taking on such a high-profile role. (sept2)

18. Florida Panthers – Ekblad vs. Forsling vs. Boqvist

As it stands, I think the top candidate for Florida’s top PP QB role is Aaron Ekblad. When he was given the keys to Florida’s power play in 2021-22, he racked up 57 points in 61 games – including 20 points with the man advantage. Gustav Forsling might be considered the better player right now, but he doesn’t have as much experience on the power play. Given Forsling’s well-rounded ability, the team might want to lean on him for more even-strength and shorthanded minutes, leaving the ‘cushier’ PP role to someone else. 24-year-old Adam Boqvist – who Florida signed to a one-year deal this summer – has shown flashes of offensive ability that have been impeded by injury. There’s certainly some untapped potential there and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stole that PP1 role. (sept2)

19. Montreal Canadiens – Matheson vs. Hutson

If the discussion is solely about offensive talent and who makes Montreal’s power play better today, the answer might already be Lane Hutson. However, for the sake of his learning and development, it might be easier to start Hutson in a smaller role so he can focus on defensive adjustments, before gradually adding other responsibilities to his plate. We saw last year how Martin St. Louis waited for Juraj Slafkovsky to improve his overall play before rewarding him with first line power-play time. While Mike Matheson likely mans the top unit to kick off the campaign, it wouldn’t surprise me if Hutson started seeing reps on PP1 to end the year. (sept2)

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20. Seth Jarvis is the latest restricted free agent to sign on the dotted line, agreeing to an eight-year, $63.2 million contract with the Hurricanes. PuckPedia shows a cap hit of $7.5 million per season, which is the fourth-highest on the Canes after Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Dmitry Orlov. Their core of Aho, Svechnikov, Jarvis, and Jaccob Slavin are now all signed for at least another five seasons each.

If you did the math and thought “Wait a minute… $63.2 divided by 8 years is actually $7.9,” well, you’re right. However, Jarvis has reportedly agreed to defer salary, with a savings of $400,000 per season on the cap. That allows the Canes a bit more cap space in their quest to win a Stanley Cup. For a much more detailed explanation, go to Daily Faceoff.

Jarvis took a major leap forward in his third season, reaching career highs in both goals (33) and assists (34). That can be attributed to an overall icetime increase of two and a half minutes, which included a move to the top power play. His shooting percentage of 18.8% was higher than normal and might result in a slight goal regression, but Jarvis is still on the right track to at least maintain his 2023-24 numbers. With Jarvis not yet 23 years of age, this contract could become an efficient one for the Hurricanes.

Jarvis has a current ADP of 78.7 in Yahoo and 94.94 in Fantrax. I was able to draft him at 123 in one recent Yahoo mock draft. He should provide great value as an option that is C- and RW-eligible if you can add him after pick 100. (sept1)

21. Other news:

– Arturs Silovs has minor knee inflammation that has resulted in him being held out from Latvia’s Olympic qualifying games. It sounds like the injury is more on the minor side and shouldn’t affect his availability for training camp, but the fact that Silovs is also dealing with something could have a major impact on the Canucks’ season. It makes even more sense now for the Canucks to pursue another goalie, with their sights reportedly set on free agent Kevin Lankinen. As it stands, the next goalie up for the Canucks is free agent signing Jiri Patera, as it sounds like Thatcher Demko won’t be ready for training camp and could even miss the start of the season.

– Laurent Brossoit recently underwent meniscus surgery on his right knee, which is expected to take 5-7 weeks to recover. That could mean Brossoit could miss the start of the season for the Blackhawks. Brossoit has been a backup for all of his NHL career, never reaching 25 games in a season. That number stood to increase with the Blackhawks paying him $3.3 million per season on a two-year contract to back up Petr Mrazek. He could still reach the 25-game mark, as it doesn’t sound like he will miss many games.  

– The Senators have signed Nick Cousins to a one-year, $800,000 contract. Cousins is a bottom-6 forward who has never reached the 30-point mark in his career, so the signing has little fantasy relevance. Because of his overly physical style of play, Cousins was voted as the most disliked player in the NHL in an anonymous player survey conducted by The Athletic. For that reason, he might be an occasional streamer if you need hits, but that’s about it.

– According to the Hurricanes, Jesper Fast has undergone neck surgery and is not expected to play in 2024-25. Fast is a bottom-6 forwards for the Canes, so he was unlikely to hold any fantasy value. However, this injury could mean that former first-round pick Tyson Jost is more likely to be an everyday player for the Canes. It could also improve the odds that Bradly Nadeau makes the club out of training camp as well.

– Artturi Lehkonen skated with Avalanche teammates last week. Lehkonen is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery that could impact his availability for training camp and even the start of the season. (sept1)

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Have a good week, folks!

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