Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week, we went 5-2 for +0.11 units. A strong record, but we lost the bigger unit bets, which limited the profit. That brings the season record to 18-12 for +3.69 units, with an average bet return of 8%.

Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Seth Jarvis No Point (+100, 1u)

Jarvis had a strong start in his first two games back, picking up a goal and two assists. But right now, he's stuck on the second power-play unit and the third line with Mark Jankowski and Jordan Martinook. That line generated just one shot on goal and 0.1 xG as a unit last game.

Jarvis could move up the lineup if needed, but with Carolina's top six currently rolling, he may stay in this shutdown checking role with limited offensive chance generation. At even money, the book is treating this as a coin flip, and in this role, I have Jarvis' chances of a point at less than 50%. His role matters much more than his skill and name here.

Logan Stankoven 3+ Shots (+115, 0.27u), 4+ Shots (+290, 0.07u), 5+ Shots (+560, 0.05u)

Stankoven's line with Ehlers and Blake has been dominating the opposition, spending most of its time in the other team's end. Stankoven has scored four goals in his last four games and ripped five shots on net in three of them.

He's strangely shooting far less at home than on the road, but Carolina has only played three home games so far this season, so I'm ignoring that trend for tonight. With Carolina expected to put up 30+ shots, Stankoven should be responsible for a bunch of them.

The odds on this ladder are nice. The 3+ tier at +115 implies about a 47% chance, and the 5+ tier at +560 implies just 15%, yet he's hit five shots in three of his last four games. It's a small sample, but with his shot attempt rates and this line's possession numbers, the upper tiers are worth a sprinkle.

Mathieu Olivier Under 1.5 Shots (-140, 1u)

Olivier has been getting loads of ice time lately playing with Coyle and Knies, but this line is spending most of its time in its own zone and not generating a ton of chances. When it does, it's Knies and Coyle firing off most of the shot attempts.

Olivier has had bursts of great shooting performances, like seven attempts against the Rangers and eight against the Penguins. But he's stayed under this line in six of his 10 games, and in his bigger role of late, he's averaged just two shot attempts per game over his last four, even with the increased ice time.

At -140, the book has this under at about 58%. His season hit rate alone sits at 60%, and with his recent attempt numbers and Carolina being the best shot suppression team in the league, I have it well above that. Tonight is not going to be one of Olivier's bursts.

Pittsburgh Penguins Under 25.5 Shots (-125, 2.6u)

Utah is top four in the league in limiting shots against this season. The Mammoth have been a bit leakier lately, but that's due to facing very strong opponents like Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Pittsburgh is not one of those opponents. The Penguins are bottom 10 in shot generation over their last five games, even with a 37-shot outburst against Nashville last game.

These two teams just met last week, and Utah held Pittsburgh to 19 shots on 47 attempts. The Penguins are at home this time, but that shouldn't change the general matchup. At -125, the book has this under at about 56%, and with Utah's structure against a weaker shot generation team, I like our chances well above that.

Utah's goalie save line isn't out yet, but if it comes in at 22.5 or higher, I'd prefer the under on the goalie line. That adds the possibility of an injury or a really bad start to our side. I'd expect it to be closer to 21.5, though.

Juuse Saros Under 26.5 Saves (-110, 2.16u)

Washington has been playing great hockey lately, tilting the ice and shooting plenty. But the Capitals tend to play lower-event hockey with strong defense. They're coming off three straight games of 30+ shots, but they've failed to clear 27 shots in six of their last 10. They also have a deep lineup that can score on limited opportunities, so even if they get to 30 shots, four goals would still give us the win on this play.

There's a real home/away effect for both teams too. Nashville gives up 3.5 fewer shots against at home than on the road, while Washington shoots 6.5 fewer shots on the road than at home. On top of that, the Capitals are on the second half of a back-to-back, travelling to Nashville. That's another factor in our favour for the Predators to limit shots against.

The -110 price implies about a 52% chance, but Washington hasn't even reached 27 shots in 60% of its last 10 games, and saves come in below that once you subtract goals. Add the home/away splits and the back-to-back, and this one has plenty of cushion.

Jake Neighbours 1+ Point (+105, 1u)

SGP: Jake Neighbours & Robert Thomas 1+ Point Each (+185, 0.2u)

SGP: Jake Neighbours & Jimmy Snuggerud 1+ Point Each (+200, 0.2u)

This is one of those plays where my fantasy hockey stream lines up with great odds in the betting market. The latest lines have Neighbours moving up to the top line with Robert Thomas and Jimmy Snuggerud, and he's on the top power-play unit with them as well.

Neighbours has been playing great lately, generating 5+ shot attempts in three of his last four games with strong on-ice numbers. At +105, the book is giving him under a 49% chance to record a point, which is a great price for a player with top-line and top power-play deployment.

That price is great on its own, but we can also add some correlated value with his new linemates for upside. If Neighbours hits the scoresheet on this line, there's a strong chance Thomas or Snuggerud is involved, and the SGPs at +185 and +200 let us capitalize on that.

Good luck if you're tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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