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Roos takes a look at declining forwards who should no longer be considered 60-point players

In last week’s column,  I looked at forwards who should no longer be projected to score 75+ points in a season during their career, as this is a great time of year to identify guys to finally write off as never being able to achieve a certain level of production – what I call the “time to downgrade” guys. There were lots of great comments and good debates in response to last week's Part 1 article, so hopefully that momentum will carry into this week, when in Part 2 we look at several forwards who should now be ruled out as 60+ point scorers.

Time to downgrade Pavelski, Ryan, Staal, Sharp and Koivu says Rick Roos

Every year right before the playoffs, while information is still fresh on our minds about players from all 30 teams, it’s good to take stock of what happened during the season and how it might impact the future. Some people like to make mental notes on which guys are trending upward or might be poised for a breakout next season; but I find that doing the opposite actually can be more useful and reliable at this point in time.  So instead, I figure out which guys I can finally write off as never being able to achieve a certain level of production – I call it my “time to downgrade” guys.

 Roos investigates the fantasy impact of teams changing philosophy down the stretch...

As if fantasy hockey isn’t challenging enough, we’ve now entered the final stretch of the regular season. This means that NHL teams have changed their focus and approach, depending on where they are in the playoff hunt. Of course this will impact players on those teams, and fantasy owners who are in tight races will need to factor in even more variables than usual in setting their lineups. So this week, let's discuss the ways that three types of teams will alter their game plans, and how that in turn will affect the fantasy value of their players: 

1. locks for a playoff spot

2. actively fighting for a playoff spot

3. out of the playoff hunt.

At this point in the season, several players are still scoring at a pace that’s well above their career high in points. Of course the question is whether their current jump in production will continue down the road, or just amount to a blip in the radar once we get to next season and beyond. This is a big issue, since in some cases it could turn a fantasy unworthy player into someone you'd want to draft or pick up, or it could help convince you to take steps to acquire a player (through the draft or by trade) that might already be on your fantasy radar. With these things in mind, we'll look at four forwards who have seen a big increase in point production pace this season, and I’ll issue a “Final Verdict” on what point production you should expect from that player in the coming years.

Rick Roos looks at the five biggest mistakes you can make at the trade deadline...

What’s really interesting – but often overlooked - about the trade deadline is how it can cause even smart fantasy hockey GMs to make easily avoidable errors or to exercise poor judgment. Knowing this, I’ve put together a list of the five biggest mistakes to avoid making during and after the trade deadline.

Taking a look at players 30-plus who stand a good chance of hitting career highs in 2013-14

The column from last week (about players who are under 30 but have already peaked) got excellent feedback, so I figured why not also focus on the flip side – players who will be age 30 or older at the start of next season but still will be candidates to achieve a new career high in points in 2013-14.

Roos goes out on a limb - and gives you six young players who have already peaked

It’s never easy to convince yourself to “get out on top”, mostly because it’s almost impossible to know things have peaked until it’s too late. It happens in real life with dating, stocks, trips to the casino, and has even been used as a humorous plotline on TV. And of course it happens in fantasy hockey too, where one of the hardest things to do is realize when a player’s point production has truly peaked, never to be exceeded again. After all, were any of you smart enough to trade Brian Gionta or Jonathan Cheechoo after the 2005-06 season? Probably not, since when one of your players achieves a career high in points while still young (Gionta was 27 at the time, Cheechoo was 25), the natural tendency is to believe it’s only the beginning of even better things to come, when in truth it can often be the beginning……..of the end.

Investigating the success rate of big players versus small, and whether "small, skilled" is trending

We’ve heard the old adage “you can’t teach size” to explain why teams from all pro sports are always eager to draft, trade for, or sign big/tall players. And one need only look back to the last lockout-shortened season of 1994-95 to remember all the hype surrounding Philly’s Legion of Doom line of Eric Lindros, John LeClair, and Mikael Renberg, who all finished in the top 10 in scoring and averaged 6-3’ and about 235 pounds. On the heels of that, every NHL team wanted their own giant forwards, and except for outliers like 5-6’ Theo Fleury the points scoring leaders also reflected this emphasis on size in the years that followed.

Fifteen signs that your team is not going to win your league this year

Don’t look now, but the 2012-13 season is nearly half over. At this point some fantasy hockey teams are doing great and others terrible, but most probably are somewhere in the middle. But as painful as this might be to hear, many of those teams in the middle have little to no realistic chance to actually win their league.  What makes that situation even worse is when those GMs finally wake up and realize their inevitable fate, it’ll be too late to try to take steps (like trades) to help put their teams in a better position for next season or down the road.

Taking a look at Face-off Win % and Power-Play Points

In last week’s column I highlighted the “Category Killers” (players who drag your team down by doing major damage in at least one category) for Hits and Blocked Shots.  This week I shift to two other secondary categories – faceoff percentage and power play points – where it is just as hard (if not harder) to notice the effects of a category killer but where the effects can be just as bad (if not worse) to your team.  Once again I examine the full season results from 2011-12, and then see if any of the players are on pace for improvement based on their 2012-13 numbers so far.