Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber
1. One of the big drivers of expected goal rates is proximity to the net, and few players crash the net like Brady Tkachuk does. With that said, players that crash the net can sometimes see their goal totals fail to live up to their expected goal marks.
A good example of that is Brendan Gallagher, who has been much better in this regard in recent seasons, but once went four straight seasons with a higher xG than actual goals scored. There are others that fit this bill, such as Patric Hornqvist, who went from 2011-2019 having only one season outscoring his expected goals rate. Tyler Toffoli also had three straight years, from 2016-19, failing to outscore his xG rate (though that may have also been line mate-related).
All this is to say just because Tkachuk puts up 1.25 ixG/60 doesn’t mean we can expect him to score near that rate every year. It does give him a nice floor, especially with his peripherals, just be wary of assuming he’s one of the best goal scorers in the league now. We’ll have to give him a couple more years to prove that. (mar26)
2. I had a Ramblings post that discussed, in part, how good a season Bo Horvat was having despite not getting anywhere near the quality of line mates that fellow Canucks centre Elias Pettersson was enjoying. When you consider that his 5-on-5 shooting percentage this year (5.22 percent) is exactly half of his three-year average prior to 2019-20 (10.44 percent), we see just how much better his season could have been. Double his 5-on-5 goals and he’s flirting with 30 goals with 14 games to spare. Again, that’s without elite line mates (which may be partly why his shooting percentage dropped so much). He