Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. Mika Zibanejad‘s problem is he’s coming off a season where he shot 19.7 percent after having never surpassed 13 percent before. Artemi Panarin is an all-world talent to have on the wing but almost no one repeats near-20 percent shooting. (Shout out to Alex Tanguay. That guy had eight seasons shooting at least 20 percent. Maybe it's a bad idea to introduce an exception to my own argument.) Not that I think Ziba will fall on his face; I bet my projections (when done) will have him as a point-per-game player. He just won’t be as valuable as Jack Eichel, for example. (nov13)

2. As great as Drew Doughty has been, there are significant concerns about his immediate fantasy hockey future. He has seen his ice time decline for five straight years and he turns 31 years old in a month.

This is a player with a lot of wear on his hockey frame: he came into the NHL his draft year of 2008 and immediately played 23:50 a game! By 2014-17, he was playing anywhere from 27-30 minutes a game and from his rookie year through 2018-19, he never missed more than six games in a season. In that span, he became just one of three players since 1998 to amass at least 24 000 minutes of ice time through their age-30 season. There is also an extra season’s worth of games (84) via the postseason.

There are a lot of miles here, and though the Kings are on the rise, they’re still a couple years away from putting anything together. I’m not keeping a guy for two years to see if he’s still good in his mid-30s while hoping the team improves around him. Too many moving parts for a decaying player. I’m out. (nov12)

3. I got a question about a points-only keeper question between Evgeni Malkin or Mark Scheifele.

Malkin has played 70 games once since the 2013 lockout. We all know the injury history. We also know a couple years ago he said he re-dedicated himself to conditioning, and after a three-year span from 2014-17 where he averaged 1.06 points/game, he’s averaged 1.22 per game over the last three years.

The reason for that is his two highest IPP seasons since the lockout (Individual Points Percentage, or the percentage of goals scored with a certain player on the ice on which that player registers a point) were the last two years. Is that a result of his commitment to increased conditioning, or is it just randomness? Good luck figuring it out.

Scheifele, meanwhile, has been at least a point-per-game player for four years, he’s seven years younger, has been healthy recently, has a great supporting cast of wingers, and is getting loads of TOI. He is my pick here. (nov12)

4. I have almost no doubt that Antti Raanta would be a starter in this league if not for the injuries. I’ve mentioned this numerous times in the past, but in case you missed it, I’ll summarize. Since the 2014-15 season, Raanta has the best save percentage (.924 SV%) and the second-best goals-against average (2.35 GAA) among goalies that have played at least 100 games. Mind you, that is over 161 games, where other top starters during that span (eg. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tuukka Rask, Ben Bishop) have all played at least 250 games.

That time dates back to 2014-15, when Raanta was a backup to Corey Crawford on the Blackhawks. Remember that he also backed up Henrik Lundqvist on the Rangers before his time with the Coyotes. Between his role as a backup and injuries, Raanta has never played 50 games in a single season. So he isn’t someone you should count on for a high volume of starts. Now that Darcy Kuemper has established himself as the starter in Arizona, that shouldn’t change as Raanta enters the final year of his contract.

If the Coyotes are to have any level of success in the 2020-21 season, they will need to double down on the defensive approach they have used for years. One of their major scoring additions last season (Phil Kessel) hasn’t panned out without an elite center, while the other (Taylor Hall) left via free agency. Plain and simple, they’re simply not going to outscore teams, so they’re going to have to out-defend them. Raanta may be lower than a 50/50 bet in earning a win when he starts, but he shouldn’t damage your other goaltending stats. (nov14)

5. If you’re investing in a player early, you may want to check his size, as it may affect his development curve. That player may need additional time – sometimes up to 400 games – so he may not be the right fit if you need him to contribute much sooner than that. There are opportunity costs from carrying the player for multiple seasons when a more current asset can help your team, or if a newer, shinier prospect is on the way. One comparable here in Jake Virtanen, who was drafted in 2014 and may finally emerge as a 40+ point threat in 2020-21. Another writer has discussed Virtanen in more detail this week, and I’ve discussed him recently, so I’ll leave him alone here.

Jordan Greenway is another example of this theory. Drafted one year after Virtanen (2015), the 6-6, 225 lb. winger has yet to reach the 30-point mark in two whole seasons in the NHL. His scoring and icetime increased modestly in 2019-20, and he even saw ice time with Kevin Fiala and the since-departed Eric Staal in the postseason. He was also helped by Jason Zucker being traded to Pittsburgh, scoring eight points in 14 games after the Zucker trade.

Wild GM Bill Guerin completed a tremendous roster overhaul this offseason, which could in the long term provide Greenway with more opportunity. On the downside, the Wild are finally able to bring in Kirill Kaprizov, which could keep Greenway further down the depth chart. So it’s likely he will need to earn his opportunity. If you’re waiting on Greenway, exercising patience is probably your best bet. He seems on track to make continued modest improvements, but it might be a while before any big breakout occurs. (nov14)

6. First-round picks often get claimed early in keeper league drafts. Sixth-round picks? Not so much. You probably didn’t have Andrew Mangiapane on your radar until recently, even with back-to-back 100+ point seasons in the OHL and point-per-game production in his last two AHL seasons. For more on Mangiapane, purchase your copy of the Fantasy Guide, where Dobber has featured him as the Flames player in his Lowdown.

The 5-10, 184 lb. winger recorded almost all of his 2019-20 production at even-strength, as just one of his 32 points was on the power play. It will be interesting to see what he is capable of with more power-play time. However, it won’t get any easier for Mangiapane to secure more power-play time (0:31 PPTOI in 2019-20), as the Flames have since added Dominik Simon and Josh Leivo, both of whom are capable of second-unit power-play minutes.

Expected to play on the Flames’ second line with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund, Mangiapane should be projected to reach the 40-point mark for the first time in his career. One sign that he has been trending upward is his second-half production, as he scored 17 points over his last 26 games. Over a full season, that would work out to over 50 points. (nov14)

7. An interesting question out of our forums from ‘sweetcelly’: Miro Heiskanen or Rasmus Dahlin, which defenseman would you rather own? Multi-cat.

The reason it’s interesting is not just because of the players but their roles. Dahlin is a lock for Buffalo’s top PP unit while Heiskanen will be in a battle with John Klingberg for those minutes. In a vacuum, I think Heiskanen will be a better player and a better offensive play-driver than Dahlin in the upcoming season. But because of uncertainty with his role and an aging core, it’s far from a sure thing he’ll be more valuable in fantasy than Dahlin.

First, let’s break down the multi-cat part. In 150 career regular season games, Heiskanen has 229 hits+blocks. In 141 regular season games, Dahlin has 286 hits+blocks. Assuming constant minutes and 82 games, based on these paces, Dahlin would put up 40+ more hits and blocks than Heiskanen. That is a sizable gap. Beyond that, Dahlin had 38 PIMs in his sophomore season alone while Heiskanen has 32 for his career.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, Dahlin has PP1 on lock while Heiskanen is more uncertain. To that end, I’m not sure that PP1 is even Heiskanen’s best use of his talents. He’s an engine; a roamer. I think he’d be more useful below the goal line than on the blue line.

Out of hits, blocks, PIMs, and PPPs, or half the skater categories, Dahlin has a sizable edge in three with Heiskanen having an edge in blocks. We will also give Heiskanen a sizable edge in shots. So, it’s 3-2 right now for Dahlin.

Face-offs are irrelevant here so the final two categories are goals and assists. Heiskanen probably has the edge in goals but Dahlin the edge in assists. (Remember that Buffalo was a higher-scoring team than Dallas last year, and the Sabres have added Eric Staal, Taylor Hall, and possibly Dylan Cozens while the Stars have stood pat. There isn’t much reason to think Dallas will exceed Buffalo in goals in 2020-21.)

My final tally has FOWs as irrelevant and Dahlin with a 4-3 edge in categories so that’s my answer. I hate the thought of giving up Heiskanen, though, which makes this decision so hard. (nov13)

8. One of the best predictors we have of future goalie performance is high-danger save percentage. Basically, how frequently a goalie makes the toughest saves gives us an idea of how good we can expect them to be in the future.

Over the last three seasons, out of 62 goalies with at least 2000 minutes played at 5-on-5, Tristan Jarry comes in at 58th by high-danger save percentage. There are goalies ahead of him that are no longer in the NHL. It is real bad, and a real cause for concern (to be fair to Jarry, it’s still not a big sample). Basically, the only starting goalie outside 45th place, or the mid-range backups, is Carey Price (for real).

Yes, Jarry is only 25 years old so hopefully there is some growth to come, but there are very real and reasonable concerns as to not only how good he is, but if he’s any good at all. I’m similarly out on Bobrovsky, only because of his team instead of him. (nov12)

9. What heck are the Canes going to do with Jake Bean? Because he’s ready for a spot. Bean, who turned 22 last summer, is coming off of the 18th most productive AHL campaign for a U22 defender. His 48 points in 59 contests equate to 0.81 points-per-game. That mark is fifth-best in the last 30 years for the same criteria.

The issue though, is that Carolina has five left-shot defenders on the NHL payroll for next season. Obviously, Jaccob Slavin isn’t going anywhere. Brady Skjei and Jake Gardiner have multiple years left on their contracts at a heavy freight. And then Joakim Ryan offers safety in the press box. There is simply no room.

Two things coming down the pike may expedite the need to resolve this issue

Dougie Hamilton is an upcoming UFA
The Seattle Expansion Draft

Hamilton will be first, second, and third on the list of things to take care of in Carolina. He’s their top offensive weapon on the blueline and has developed into a marquee stopper as well. He’s a legitimate Norris threat in the immediate future. How the team allocates cash to keep him will likely shift their structure beneath. That, to me, means one of Skjei or Gardiner (or both) needs to hit the bricks.

Secondly, the Expansion draft looms large. The process will be the same as it was with Vegas – meaning clubs can protect seven forwards and three defensemen for a total of 10 skaters. Or they can protect any combination of eight skaters. We can assume that Hamilton, Slavin, and Brett Pesce are locked to be protected. In which case, do you risk the Kraken landing Bean as he ripe to step in and step up? Do you protect four defenders and leave two extra bodies available?

Most likely, I’d expect Bean to be dangled to the masses in short order. He’s unlikely to earn a spot and earn the value to use a protection spot on. The team surely wants to extract some value from him if they can’t keep him. And so we wait. Because I have a feeling he’s going to be a strong fantasy producer when he lands in a good spot. (nov11)

10. What’s up with Roope Hintz next season and beyond? Well, my guess is that he has an instant opportunity to become the Stars’ top line pivot for the majority of 2020-21 as Tyler Seguin recoups from hip surgery.

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I mentioned last week in the Ramblings that the torn labrum injury and subsequent surgery that Seguin is facing is a long and arduous one. It’s an injury that sucked the juice right out of Ryan Kesler’s Selke-level play. It ended Jarkko Ruutu’s career. It’s not to be underplayed.

But, while the Stars’ star center is on the shelf, that glaring hole at the top of the lineup needs filling. We may see Dallas load up a geriatric first unit with Joe Pavelski in the middle of Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov. That would leave the second line to be a kid unit. Hintz would be working with his most common linemate from 2019-20, Denis Gurianov and perhaps Jason Robertson. There’s a lot to like about either combo.

The other option is to swap Pavelski and Hintz and add some layers to both top-six lines. But either way, a spot on the team’s top power-play unit is definitely at hand. Hintz was a high-end power-play producer last season. His 7.1 power-play points per 60 minutes led all regular skaters in Dallas. Hell, that mark sat amongst T-10th in the entire league for those who saw a regular PP shift. That effort led to him playing at a 26-goal, 45-point sophomore pace. Nothing to sneeze at.

This information could sway you to find a ‘K’ to slide next to the soon-to-be 24-year-old. Or maybe you take that knowledge and make sure to snipe him a round early in drafts. Either way, his role is set to elevate at both even-strength and on the man-advantage. Key ingredients to a burst in production. (nov11)

11. In an interview in the Edmonton Journal a few days ago, Oilers GM Ken Holland said that the team is assuming Oscar Klefbom will miss the entire 2020-21 season. Last year, his 82-game paces were 45 points and 24 PPPs. That is great for a defenseman. However, plus/minus with their goaltending is an ongoing concern, Klefbom has never been a penalty-taker, and defensemen typically don’t score many GWGs. He might only contribute to half of this league’s categories when healthy.

Even if he comes back this year, Tyson Barrie should be running the PP1. If he doesn’t, it’s a lost year for a keeper and he may not even get the PP1 role back, depending on Evan Bouchard‘s development. Klefbom is a wonderful defenseman but the setup of this league and his injury means he’s the guy to go for me.

12. The Jets signed their first-round pick, Cole Perfetti, to a three-year ELC with an AAV of about $1.6M. Perfetti is hopefully the 2C of the future they’ll need to play behind Mark Scheifele.

Despite a lot of talk around Quinton Byfield, Marco Rossi, and Tim Stuetzle, let’s remember that if any of them step into a 2C role in 2020-21, Perfetti will have the most to play with at even strength. Because of the timing of the 2020-21 season, I think we could see more rookies in the NHL than in prior years. I guess it could matter how their development this fall/winter goes. I’m not expecting Perfetti in the NHL from Perfetti this season but I am going to be keeping a very close eye on training camps.

13. Reader @ChrisCarveth asks: Tuukka Rask or Igor Shesterkin?

Nice one! A proven stud on a great team who year after year is a top goalie to own… up against, for my money, the best goaltender in the league despite very little experience and NHL history to back that up. I keep Shesterkin even if it means taking a haircut for the first year or two. He is worth keeping for what he will provide for the next decade. (nov9)

14. Reader Scotty Rales asks: Keep 1: Boeser, Fiala, Bjorkstrand, Reinhart, Perron, Toffoli. I’m not worried about LW vs RW. My goalies and Defense are strong. G, A, PPP, hits, shots, blocks.

I keep Kevin Fiala here. A bit of a gamble going up against a steady guy like David Perron or Sam Reinhart. I also think Oliver Bjorkstrand has more upside. But Bjorkstrand had a couple of injuries and I would like to see that sort of thing stop before I consider him better than Fiala. Fiala had 51 points in his last 53 games last season (and in the play-in round, combined) and he will soon have Kirill Kaprizov to play with. (nov9)

15. Reader @Rockin_Ricketts asks: How would you rank these 5 in a points-only 12 team keeper league Kucherov, Pastrnak, Gaudreau, Rantanen, Barkov?

Nikita Kucherov
David Pastrnak
Johnny Gaudreau
Aleksander Barkov
Mikko Rantanen, due to the injuries (nov9)

16. Reader @JoshKroo asks: Bjorkstrand, Kubalik, Merzlikins, Dumba, Mikheyev – keep 2 – other goalies are Igor and Vas (start 2, H2H)?

Since you already have, in my mind, the two best goalies, then there is no need to keep a guy who probably sits around 12th (but will be Top 5 in my opinion, down the road). Lucky you, to have those goalies. I keep Oliver Bjorkstrand because his upside is as high as anyone’s. If he can stay healthy he could have that really special year that you don’t see many players get to. I think Matt Dumba is too risky for the final spot, so the final spot comes down to Ilya Mikheyev vs. Dominik Kubalik. I own both of these players in one of my leagues, so I need to close my eyes and decide which one I would rather hang onto. For this year I like Kubalik better, but in the long term I think Mikheyev can go higher. That being said, how will the other people in your league value them? If you let Kubalik go, he will get drafted fairly high. If you let Mikheyev go, he will get drafted a little later. So here is my strategy. I would rather let Kubalik go…but because of the latter point, I instead let Mikheyev go. Then I draft him back using a later draft pick than I would have needed to draft Kubalik back. But just make sure you come to terms with losing Mikheyev and being unable to re-draft him, because there is a strong likelihood of that happening. (nov9)

17. Reader @cboyce133 asks: Carter Hart. He’s listed as tier 3 in (Fantasy Guide) spreadsheet but tier 1 in Top 100 goalie pdf. What's the take on him?

Carter Hart – He is a Tier 1 goalie in my monthly Top 100 because that is a keeper list. It factors this season and next, but also considers his future as a starting goalie – and it’s pretty secure. He is a Tier 3 goalie in my projections for this season because his starts will be cannibalized by Brian Elliott. Getting 50 starts in an 82-game season (if they play that many, but that’s another article) is not a certainty. So Hart is in the lowest tier for starters – barely more than half the starts. For one-year leagues you want to go after the sure-thing guys who get 55 starts or more. But long term, Hart is a fantastic and safe own. A Tier 1 keeper. (nov9)

18. Reader @JonathanDuhamel asks: Farabee, Reinhart, Meier, Chabot for next 2-3 years, pts only?

Thomas Chabot is your best keeper here, assuming that you need to have defensemen on your roster and it’s not just strictly points regardless of position. After this, despite his disappointment of never reach that ‘peak level’ you were hoping for, year after year, I think you take Sam Reinhart. He is attached at the hip with Jack Eichel, and Eichel is still getting better. Then Timo Meier, and then the unproven Joel Farabee. I don’t mind Farabee’s upside, but I wonder if he will take too long to get there. As in, longer than three more years. So do you want that sitting on your roster when you could trade him for a guy who could break out this year or next? (nov9)

19. Moving from a first-line center role in Minnesota to a second-line center role in Buffalo might not normally seem like a positive for Eric Staal. However, the first line in Minny wasn’t particularly strong, while Buffalo’s second line shapes up to look like Staal centering Jeff Skinner (who he is familiar with from his Carolina days) and Victor Olofsson (or maybe Sam Reinhart?) So without getting too granular, this is probably a lateral move for Staal.

Age is a factor, as Staal is now 36 years old (time sure passes). One area where the aging curve has already kicked in is with the shot total. A 250+ SOG shooter during his first five seasons, Staal sunk to a career-low 113 shots in 2019-20, so his goal total (19) was buoyed by a career-high 16.8 SH% and 11.3 5-on-5 SH%. Even with some decent linemates, getting to 20 goals might be a challenge.

If you’re planning to keep Staal, you’re doing so with the hopes that he maintains his point totals from recent seasons. Like many in the 35+ age bracket, Staal has the added motivation of playing in a contract year. There seems to be enough left in the tank for one more contract in the 2021 offseason, assuming that he doesn’t retire. (nov8)

20. Tanner Pearson is a UFA after the 2020-21 season, yet there’s been very little discussion as to whether the Canucks will re-sign him. The contracts of Alex Edler, Brandon Sutter, and Sven Baertschi will be coming off the books, and a Loui Eriksson buyout will finally make mathematical sense for the Canucks. However, tons of room will be needed for two important RFAs in Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes – perhaps close to $10 million per season for each. The Canucks have been squeezed by both the salary cap and by COVID, so there may not be a lot left to offer Pearson.

Overall, Pearson should be able to at least replicate his scoring pace from previous seasons in 2020-21. After that, it will depend where he lands.

Since joining the Canucks, Pearson has scored 31 goals and 59 points in 90 games, which works out to be a 28-goal and 54-point pace over a full 82-game season. Even with some good seasons on a strong Kings team, Pearson set career highs in points (45) and power-play points (10) in 2019-20, his first full season with the Canucks. (nov8)

21. I wouldn’t write Patric Hornqvist off completely. In fact, I think he’s best suited for daily leagues (which I don’t mention here very often). My reasoning is that he won’t play a full season, as he hasn’t played more than 70 games in a season since 2015-16. However, when he is in the lineup, he’ll be used on Florida’s first-unit power-play (at least to start) since the Panthers lack proven options on the right side. In other words, don’t rely on him for a full season, but he’s worth slotting into your lineup when he’s available. (nov8)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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